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Proposed Analytical Products for the Air Force Warfighting Integration

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C O R P O R A T I O N DEBRA KNOPMAN, DON SNYDER, IRV BLICKSTEIN, DAVID E. THALER, JAMES A. LEFTWICH, COLBY PEYTON STEINER, QUENTIN E. HODGSON, ELAINE SIMMONS, KRISTA ROMITA GROCHOLSKI, YVONNE K. CRANE Proposed Analytical Products for the Air Force Warfighting Integration Capability Developing and Presenting Options for Future Force Design and Capability Development For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR4199 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0433-6 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2020 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover (left to right): U.S. Air Force photo/1st Lt. Randolph Abaya; U.S. Air Force graphic; A1C Luis A.Ruiz-Vazquez Cover design: Rick Penn-Kraus Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Over the past several years, the U.S. Air Force has made a series of organizational changes to strengthen its capacity at the enterprise level to conceptualize and shape future force design and capability development over the longer term. One important step came on October 3, 2017, when the Secretary of the Air Force and the Chief of Staff of the Air Force issued a memorandum announcing the formation of the Air Force Warfighting Integration Capability (AFWIC) to “orchestrate future force design” and “deliver the integration, understanding and consistency required to guide and direct future [Air Force] force transformation” (U.S. Air Force, 2017). In January 2018, the Vice Chief of Staff of the Air Force asked RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) to undertake a project to assist AFWIC in developing its approach to future force design (and integration with strategy, planning, programming, budgeting, and execution processes) to ensure its successful implementation. In subsequent discussions, PAF’s tasking was refined to focus on the scope and structure of AFWIC’s written and other products to support decisionmaking. The research reported here was commissioned by the United States Air Force and conducted within the Resource Management Program of PAF as part of a fiscal year 2018 project, titled Designing Integrated, Effective, and Timely AFWIC Products. The audience for this report is primarily the AFWIC leadership and team members, but it also should be of interest to other senior leaders in the Air Force who interact with and depend on AFWIC. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the Department of the Air Force’s (DAF’s) federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses, supporting both the United States Air Force and the United States Space Force. PAF provides the DAF with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and iii cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Strategy and Doctrine; Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; and Resource Management. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-16-D-1000. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: www.rand.org/paf. This report documents work originally shared with the DAF on February 20, 2019. The draft report, issued on November 21, 2019, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and DAF subject-matter experts. iv Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Figures........................................................................................................................................... vii Tables ........................................................................................................................................... viii Summary ........................................................................................................................................ ix Acknowledgments ...................................................................................................................... xviii Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................ xx 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 Rationale for AFWIC’s Establishment ..................................................................................................... 3 Research Approach ................................................................................................................................... 6 How This Report Is Organized ................................................................................................................. 7 2. Lessons Learned from Past Air Force Approaches to Integrated Planning ................................ 9 Overview .................................................................................................................................................. 9 Lessons for AFWIC ................................................................................................................................ 11 3. AFWIC’s Initial Model for Integrated Planning and Comparison with the Other Military Services ..................................................................................................... 14 AFWIC’s Place in Existing Air Force Processes ................................................................................... 14 AFWIC’s Business Model as Specified in its Concept of Operations ................................................... 18 Overview of Approaches to Integration by the Other Services .............................................................. 21 4. Proposed AFWIC Analyses ...................................................................................................... 25 Defining the Concept of Force Structure ................................................................................................ 25 A Proposed Analytical Roadmap for AFWIC ........................................................................................ 27 Foundational Inputs to the AFWIC Design Process ............................................................................... 32 The Role of Air Force Leadership .......................................................................................................... 35 The Role of AFWIC’s Consultation Processes ...................................................................................... 36 Analytical Steps to Support the Development of Future Force Design Options .................................... 38 5. Overview of Proposed AFWIC-Related Product Elements ...................................................... 56 Set the Context ........................................................................................................................................ 59 Inform the Analysis ................................................................................................................................ 62 Document Decisions ............................................................................................................................... 68 v Direct and Guide ..................................................................................................................................... 69 Communicate and Coordinate ................................................................................................................ 71 Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 73 6. Example Applications of the Problem Framing Process .......................................................... 74 Steps in Problem Framing ...................................................................................................................... 75 Options for PNT ..................................................................................................................................... 76 Options for C4I ....................................................................................................................................... 78 Summary of Insights Gained from the Examples ................................................................................... 80 7. Summary
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