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Rand Paul Likely Victor in Kentucky

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Rand Paul Likely Victor in Kentucky FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE October 26, 2010 INTERVIEWS: DEAN DEBNAM 888-621-6988 / 919-880-4888 (serious media inquiries only please, other questions can be directed to Tom Jensen) QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POLL: TOM JENSEN 919-744-6312 Rand Paul Likely Victor in Kentucky Raleigh, N.C. – Backlash over Kentucky’s Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Jack Conway’s recent TV ad calling his Republican opponent Rand Paul’s deity the “Aqua Buddha” may have sunk Conway’s campaign for good. 56% of voters think it was inappropriate, including 72% of Republicans and 68% of independents. Even 41% of Democrats think the ad in bad taste; only 24% approve. Coincidentally or not, Conway was down only 42-49 in PPP’s previous survey last month, but he now trails by a likely insurmountable 40-53 with only a week to go. Possibly because of this ad, since September 12th, Conway’s previously even favorable- unfavorable ratio has fallen to 39-52. While his own party, which makes up a bare majority of voters, has moved slightly in his favor, 79% of Republicans and 63% of independents now dislike him. Last month, he had a positive 35-29 margin with the latter, and only 55% of Republicans were unfavorable toward him. Paul, meanwhile, has improved a little in voters’ eyes, particularly among independents, who were only 43-38 in his favor previously but 59-31 now. This huge movement by independents away from Conway and toward Paul personally has made the difference. They now support Paul by a 66-27 margin, an improvement of 32 points from his 47-40 edge in September. Though unaffiliateds are only 10% of voters, this shift accounts for more than half of Paul’s improvement in the horse race. The rest comes from just a slight improvement for Paul among Republicans and an insignificant decline by Paul with his own party. “Down by single digits until now, Jack Conway threw a Hail Mary with the ‘Aqua Buddha’ TV spot, and Rand Paul looks set to intercept it and return it for a touchdown next week,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. PPP surveyed 900 likely Kentucky voters from October 21st to 24th. The margin of error is +/-3.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify. Complete results are attached, and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com. If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888. Public Policy Polling Phone: 888 621-6988 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Raleigh, NC 27604 Email: [email protected] Kentucky Survey Results Q1 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jim Democrat Jack Conway and Republican Rand Bunning’s job performance? Paul, who would you vote for? Approve .......................................................... 33% Jack Conway .................................................. 40% Disapprove...................................................... 45% Rand Paul....................................................... 53% Not sure .......................................................... 23% Undecided....................................................... 7% Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Steve Beshear’s job performance? of Jack Conway? Approve .......................................................... 43% Favorable........................................................ 39% Disapprove...................................................... 39% Unfavorable .................................................... 52% Not sure .......................................................... 18% Not sure .......................................................... 9% Q9 Have you seen the ‘Aqua Buddha’ ad? Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion 62% of Rand Paul? Yes.................................................................. No ................................................................... 28% Favorable........................................................ 49% Not sure .......................................................... 10% Unfavorable .................................................... 43% Q10 Do you think the ‘Aqua Buddha’ ad was Not sure .......................................................... 8% appropriate or inappropriate? Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of President 15% Barack Obama’s job performance? Appropriate ..................................................... Inappropriate................................................... 56% Approve .......................................................... 34% Not sure .......................................................... 29% Disapprove...................................................... 61% Q11 Have you already cast your ballot for this Not sure .......................................................... 5% year’s election? Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mitch 10% McConnell’s job performance? Yes.................................................................. No ................................................................... 90% Approve .......................................................... 41% Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008? Disapprove...................................................... 47% John McCain................................................... 54% Not sure .......................................................... 11% 38% Q6 Would you like to see Mitch McConnell Barack Obama................................................ continue in his role as Republican leader in the Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 8% next Congress? Q13 Would you describe yourself as a liberal, Yes.................................................................. 45% moderate, or conservative? No ................................................................... 47% Liberal............................................................. 15% Not sure .......................................................... 9% Moderate......................................................... 41% Conservative................................................... 44% October 21-24, 2010 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 900 likely voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American, press 2. If other, press 3. Woman ........................................................... 53% White .............................................................. 89% Man................................................................. 47% Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, African-American ............................................ 8% press 2. If you are an independent or identify Other............................................................... 3% with another party, press 3. Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to Democrat ........................................................ 50% 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4. Republican...................................................... 40% 18 to 29........................................................... 10% Independent/Other.......................................... 10% 30 to 45........................................................... 24% 46 to 65........................................................... 42% Older than 65 .................................................. 24% October 21-24, 2010 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 900 likely voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs Already Already Voted? Voted? Bas e Yes No Bas e Yes No Conw ay/Paul Conw ay Favorability Jack Conw ay 40% 50% 39% Favorable 39% 51% 37% Rand Paul 53% 41% 54% Unfavorable 52% 38% 54% Unde cide d 7% 9% 7% Not s ur e 9% 11% 9% Already Already Voted? Voted? Bas e Yes No Bas e Yes No Paul Favorability Obama Approval Favorable 49% 42% 50% Approve 34% 47% 32% Unfavorable 43% 49% 43% Dis appr ove 61% 49% 62% Not s ur e 8% 9% 7% Not s ur e 5% 4% 5% October 21-24, 2010 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 900 likely voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs Already Already Voted? Voted? Bas e Yes No Bas e Yes No McConnell Approval McConnell Continue as GOP Leader? Approve 42% 39% 42% Yes 45% 35% 46% Dis appr ove 47% 46% 48% No 47% 59% 45% Not s ur e 11% 15% 10% Not s ur e 9% 6% 9% Already Already Voted? Voted? Bas e Yes No Bas e Yes No Bunning Approval Beshear Approval Approve 33% 34% 32% Approve 43% 53% 41% Dis appr ove 45% 48% 45% Dis appr ove 40% 36% 40% Not s ur e 22% 18% 23% Not s ur e 18% 11% 19% October 21-24, 2010 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 900 likely voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs Already Already Voted? Voted? Bas e Yes No Bas e Yes No Seen Aqua Buddha Aqua Buddha Ad Ad? Appropriate? Yes 62% 54% 63% Appropriate 15% 18% 15% No 28% 27% 28% Inappropriate 56% 45% 58% Not s ur e 10% 20% 9% Not s ur e 29% 37% 28% 2008 Vote 2008 Vote John Bar ack Someone else/Don't John Bar ack Someone else/Don't Bas e McCain Obam a remember Bas e McCain Obam a remember Conway/Paul Conw ay Favorability Jack Conw ay 40% 8% 87% 31% Favorable 39% 10% 80% 32% Rand Paul 53% 84% 9% 51% Unfavorable 52% 79% 15% 54% Unde cide d 7% 8% 4% 17% Not s ur e 9% 11% 6% 14% October 21-24, 2010 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 900 likely
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