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Menimbang Kapasitas Calon Presiden 2024

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Menimbang Kapasitas Calon Presiden 2024 SURVEI PAKAR & PUBLIC OPINION MAKERS MENIMBANGMENIMBANG KKAPAPASITASITASAS CCALALONON PPRESIDENRESIDEN 20202424 Temuan Survei Pakar : 02 – 10 Juli 2021 PT. ARUS SURVEI INDONESIA Jl. Epicentrum Tengah, No.3 085226752276 Karet Kuningan, Jakarta Selatan, [email protected] DKI Jakarta 12940 www.arussurvei.com (021) 3116127 PENGANTAR Tahun 2024 diprediksi akan menjadi momentum kontestasi elektoral paling cair dan kompetitif. Pertama, tidak ada calon presiden incumbent di kontestasi Pilpres 2024. Kedua, hingga rentang waktu 3,5 tahun menjelang pencoblosan, belum ada kandidat capres 2024 dengan elektabilitas dominan dan eksponensial. Sementara itu, publikasi-publikasi riset yang muncul sejauh ini hanya sekadar momotret persepsi publik (elektabilitas), belum pada level kapasitas calon pemimpin nasional mendatang dengan indikator-indikator ilmiah dan ketat. Atas dasar itulah Arus Survei Indonesia (ASI) bekerjasama dengan SocioMap Indonesia melakukan survei pakar/public opinion makers (POM). Survei ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui penilaian para pakar soal siapa calon presiden 2024 yang paling layak dari sisi kompetensi dan kapasitas. Pasalnya, modal elektabilitas saja tidak cukup untuk menjadi Presiden. Perlu kapasitas kepemimpinan yang teruji untuk mengelola Indonesia dengan jumlah penduduk sekitar 270 juta jiwa ini. Melalui kajian meta-analisis dan kriteria penarikan figur yang ketat, kami menemukan setidaknya ada 23 figur kandidat potensial capres 2024, yang terdiri dari beragam klaster (mulai dari klaster partai politik, kepala daerah, menteri, TNI, Polri, tokoh agama, akademisi- teknokrat, hingga klaster pengusaha). Mereka adalah figur-figur yang telah masuk radar survei, punya kompetensi dan prestasi, serta punya pengaruh sosial politik yang kuat. Sebanyak 23 figur kandidat capres 2024 tersebut akan dinilai oleh 130 pakar/public opinion makers terpilih dari berbagai bidang dan keilmuan. TEMUAN SURVEI PAKAR/POM Periode Riset: 02 – 10 Juli 2021 METODE RISET Riset ini menggunakan metode uji kelayakan figur melalui tiga tingkatan : Uji kelayakan figur melalui meta-analisis: pemberitaan media, hasil riset, komparasi statistik elektabilitas hasil-hasil survei dan literatur-literatur lainya yang berkaitan. Selanjutnya dilakukan focus group discussion (FGD) untuk menganalisis lebih jauh nama-nama yang didapatkan dari hasil meta-analisis. Kemudian penilaian masing-masing figur terseleksi dilakukan oleh para pakar/public opinion makers Pengambilan sampel para pakar/public opinion makers dilakukan dengan menggunakan metode purposive sampling, yakni sampling diambil tidak secara acak dan sesuai dengan jumlah sampel yang telah ditetapkan. Pertanyaan kuesioner dibagi menjadi dua. Pertama, pertanyaan opsional untuk mengetahui agregasi persepsi para pakar/public opinion makers terhadap isu-isu seputar calon presiden 2024. Kedua, pertanyaan skoring untuk assessment atau menilai kualitas figur calon presiden 2024 sesuai dengan aspek/indikator yang telah ditentukan. Seluruh kegiatan riset ini dilakukan pada tanggal 02 – 10 Juli 2021. TEMUAN SURVEI PAKAR/POM Periode Riset: 02 – 10 Juli 2021 KRITERIA PENARIKAN FIGUR Masuk radar survei/media, yakni figur yang masuk dalam riset ini adalah mereka yang masuk dalam radar survei dan pemberitaan media secara masif. Punya kompetensi, yakni figur dengan kemampuan/keahlian di atas rata-rata. Punya prestasi, yakni mendapat banyak penghargaan dan reputasinya sudah diakui publik luas. Kriteria penarikan figur dalam riset Punya pengaruh sosial politik yang kuat, yakni kiprah yang ini adalah: dilakukan selama ini mencerahkan dan berdampak terhadap hajat hidup orang banyak. Potensial secara politik untuk memenuhi syarat pencalonan berdasarkan UUD dan UU Pemilu. Hasil analisis kualitatif dan riset media Arus Survei Indonesia & SosioMap Indonesia. TEMUAN SURVEI PAKAR/POM Periode Riset: 02 – 10 Juli 2021 PROPORSI & PEMILIHAN JURI PENILAI Juri penilai adalah Pakar/Public Opinion Makers (POM). Pemilihan pakar sebagai juri penilai dilakukan berdasarkan tingkat aksesibilitas pengambilan data dan penilaian, serta kategorisasi lintas bidang keilmuan dan profesi. Jumlah juri penilai dalam riset ini adalah 130 pakar/public opinion makers PARA JURI PENILAI TERSEBUT TERDIRI DARI 10 KATEGORI: AKEDEMISI PENGUSAHA JURNALIS AKTIVIS MAHASISWA PENGAMAT/PENELITI BUDAYAWAN PARTAI POLITIK KALANGAN PROFESIONAL ORMAS/LSM PRAKTISI PEMERINTAHAN TEMUAN SURVEI PAKAR/POM Periode Riset: 02 – 10 Juli 2021 ASPEK PENILAIAN FIGUR Pengukuran kualitas personal para figur dalam riset ini dibatasi hanya pada 9 (sembilan) aspek atau indikator. Sembilan aspek atau indikator ini berdasarkan kajian dan studi kepemimpinan politik tentang apa yang perlu ada pada diri seorang Presiden. BERIKUT ADALAH 9 (SEMBILAN) ASPEK ATAU DIMENSI TERSEBUT: 1 VISI DAN INTELEKTUALITAS 6 SKILL MENGELOLA BIROKRASI 2 TRACK RECORD/REKAM JEJAK 7 SKILL MENGELOLA KRISIS 3 KARAKTER DAN INTEGRITAS 8 KEMAMPUAN MEMENUHI JANJI KEMAMPUAN KERJASAMA 4 SKILL KOMUNIKASI 9 DENGAN DEWAN PERWAKILAN RAKYAT 5 KEMAMPUAN MENGAMBIL KEPUTUSAN TEPAT TEMUAN SURVEI PAKAR/POM Periode Riset: 02 – 10 Juli 2021 TUJUAN DAN MANFAAT Untuk mengukur aspek kapasitas dan kompetensi calon presiden 2024 mendatang. Pasalnya, modal elektabilitas saja tidak cukup untuk menjadi Presiden. Perlu kapasitas kepemimpinan yang teruji untuk mengelola Indonesia dengan jumlah penduduk sekitar 270 juta jiwa. Sehingga survei ini membantu melihat calon presiden dari sisi kompetensi dan kapabilitas di luar soal sisi popularitas yang sudah banyak dilakukan. Memberi alternatif informasi kepada masyarakat bahwa calon presiden 2024 bisa dilihat dari sisi kapasitas dan kapabilitas, tidak hanya informasi soal popularitas dan elektabilitas semata. Memberikan peta analisis tentang kelebihan dan kekurangan figur-figur calon presiden 2024 melalui perspektif ilmiah yang terukur dan metodologis. Mendorong putra putri terbaik bangsa yang punya kapasitas dan kompetensi membanggakan untuk ikut andil dalam kontestasi elektoral 2024. Untuk mengukur tingkat kelayakan dari sisi kapasitas dan kompetensi terhadap figur-figur yang namanya belakangan santer masuk radar survei opini publik sebagai bakal calon presiden 2024. TEMUAN SURVEI PAKAR/POM Periode Riset: 02 – 10 Juli 2021 TIMELINE PELAKSANAAN 1 Hari Desain Riset dan Uji Validasi 1 Hari Workshop Pewawancara 8 Hari /Peneliti Wawancara 2 Hari Input & Pengolahan Data 1 Hari Analisis Data & Laporan 1 Hari Analisis Laporan & Grafis Total Waktu 14 Hari TEMUAN SURVEI PAKAR/POM Periode Riset: 02 – 10 Juli 2021 NAMA JURI PENILAI (BERSEDIA DIPUBLIKASI) Nama Juri Penilai Lembaga Prof. Dr. Ni'matul Huda, SH, M.Hum Universitas Islam Indonesia (UII) Wawan Mas'udi, Ph.D Dekan Fisipol UGM Prof. H. Abdurrahman Mas’ud, MA, Ph.D Pascasarjana UIN Walisongo Semarang Dr. Ridho Al-Hamdi Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta (UMY) Dr. Khalilah, M.Pd UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta Dr. Muhammad Reza Syariffudin Zaki, S.H., MA Universitas Bina Nusantara (BINUS) Agus Supriyanto Jurnalis TEMPO Ade Alawi Jurnalis MEDIA INDONESIA Rio Ardian Jurnalis JAWA POS Ir. Ahmad Romadhoni Surya Putra, Ph.D. Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM) Dr. Abdul Jamil, SH. MH Dekan FH UII Dr. H. Khamim Zarkasih Putro, M. Si. UIN Suka Yogyakarta Mokhamad Zainal Anwar, M.S.I Kepala Pusat Penelitian dan Penerbitan LPPM UIN Surakarta Ir. Twaistrisna Hepiprana, S.Pt., M.M. IPM. Profesional Khaeron Sirin, MA, MDC, CM UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta Mamay Muthmainnah, M.H Universitas Nasional Juwita Tri Utami, S.H. PKB As Shofiyah, S.E. PAN Nukman Paluti, S.IP PPP Rahmad Ramli, SP PB HMI Kamaluddin, M.E PB PMII Ali Wiyoto, ME, M.Pd Profesional TEMUAN SURVEI PAKAR/POM Periode Riset: 02 – 10 Juli 2021 FIGUR YANG DIUKUR FIGUR CAPRES 2024 (URUT ABJAD) BACKGROUND Abdul Muhaimin Iskandar Ketum DPP PKB Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono Ketum DPP Demokrat Airlangga Hartarto Ketum DPP Golkar Ali Masykur Musa Ketum PP ISNU Andika Perkasa Kepala Staf Angkatan Darat Anies Baswedan Gubernur DKI Jakarta Budi Gunawan Kapala BIN Erick Thohir Menteri BUMN/Pengusaha Ganjar Pranowo Gubernur Jawa Tengah Hadi Tjahjanto Panglima TNI Haedar Nashir Ketum PP Muhammadiyah Khofifah Indar Parawansah Gubernur Jawa Timur Listyo Sigit Prabowo Kapolri Moh. Mahfud MD Menkopolhukam Prabowo Subianto Ketum DPP Gerindra/Menteri Pertahanan Puan Maharani Ketua DPP PDIP/Ketua DPR RI Rachmad Gobel Pengusaha/Wakil Ketua DPR RI Ridwan Kamil Gubernur Jawa Barat Said Aqil Siradj Ketum PBNU Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno Menteri Pariwisata dan Ekonomi Kreatif Tito Karnavian Menteri Dalam Negeri Yudo Margono Kepala Staf Angkatan Laut Zulkifli Hasan Ketum DPP PAN TEMUAN SURVEI PAKAR/POM Periode Riset: 02 – 10 Juli 2021 HASIL SURVEI PAKAR/PUBLIC OPINION MAKERS ISUISU SEPSEPUUTTARAR CCALALONON PPRESIDENRESIDEN 20202424 USIA CALON PRESIDEN 2024 Menurut Anda, di rentang usia berapa paling ideal menjadi ? Presiden RI? 49.4% 45.8% 2.4% 1.6% 0.8% usia 51-60 tahun usia 41-50 tahun usia 61-70 tahun usia 31-40 tahun usia 21-30 tahun Terkait rentang usia, pakar/public opinion makers menilai bahwa rentang usia 51-60 tahun (49,4%) dan usia 41-50 tahun (45,8%) merupakan usia yang paling ideal menjadi Presiden RI. TEMUAN SURVEI PAKAR/POM Periode Riset: 02 – 10 Juli 2021 LATAR BELAKANG CAPRES Menurut Anda, dari latar belakang apa sebaiknya Presiden RI ? 2024 mendatang? 49.6% 16.2% 15% 6.3% 5.5% Kepala daerah Akademisi Partai politik TNI Pengusaha teknokrat 3.9% 2.4% 1.1% Menteri Tokoh agama Polisi Terkait latar belakang Presiden RI 2024 mendatang, pakar/public opinion makers menilai bahwa klaster kepala daerah (49,6%), akademisi teknokrat (16,2%), partai
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