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Report The Balance Sheet of the US Allies Comparative Study between Asia and Europe This page intentionally left blank. Report The Balance Sheet of the US Allies: Comparative Study between Asia and Europe In cooperation with Title: Report The Balance Sheet of the US Allies: Comparative Study between Asia and Europe Edition: Naomi Konda Publication Date: March 2019 Copyright ○c The Sasakawa Peace Foundation Publisher: The Sasakawa Peace Foundation 1-15-16 Toranomon, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 105-8524, Japan Foreword Naomi Konda, Ph.D Research Fellow, The Sasakawa Peace Foundation There is no doubt that the Japan-US Alliance remains the cornerstone of Japanese security policy as well as being the most rational means for providing for Japan’s national defense. However, in the United States, criticism of unilateralism or asymmetry in the Japan-US Alliance remains persistent. Thus, It is likely that the US will demand its allies to shoulder an ever greater portion of the defense burden in the future. Yet Japanese public opinion is generally unfavorable to towards increasing military contributions, especially directly engaging in military operations, and despite the efforts of the Abe Administration, attitudes are unlikely to shift appreciably in the near future. Moreover, despite incremental additions in the Japanese Defense Budget, economic constraints preclude a significant increase in military expenditure. Under such circumstances, Tokyo needs to consider ways to sustain the alliance relationship whilst minimizing any increase of its military role and defense contributions. To this purpose, it is essential to reveal and underline the full spectrum of assets that Japan can bring to the alliance in order to highlight its overall strategic importance to the US. Conversely, it is necessary to examine areas in which Japan may be underperforming and able to contribute more to the allied defense burden. Through this process a systematic appreciation, or “balance sheet”, of Japanese advantage and disadvantage can be drawn up from which Japan can assess its ability to meet the anticipated demands placed upon it by Washington in the future. To reveal these points, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation started a research project titled “Balance Sheet of US Allies” from April, 2018 in cooperation with the Casimir Pulaski Foundation (CPF), Poland. The major objective of this project was to reveal the balance sheet of “assets (advantages)” and “liabilities (disadvantages)” held by US allies from a strategic perspective and to shed light on the characteristics of Japanese cooperation through a comparison with the balance sheets of other allies. This report represents the findings of the extensive research and discussions undertaken over the past year toward this aim. We are grateful to all the participants of this project, especially Mr. Rira MOMMA, Head of the China Division of National Institute for Defense Studies, MOD, Japan, Dr Thomas S. Wilkins, Senior Lecturer, University of Sydney and Mr. Tsuneo Watanabe, Senior Fellow of our foundation. We also acknowledge our collaborators at the CPF and the Polish authors, Dr. Tomasz Smura, Director of the Research Office, Mr. Kamil Mazurek and Mr. Maciej Szopa, Research Fellows at CPF, Dr. Karolina Libront, Expert on Germany and International i Securityat Centre of International Initiatives, Poland and Dr. Łukasz Smalec, Policy Officer on Political Cooperation with the United States of America, Department of Americas, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Poland for their cooperation and contribution. However, the content of this report does not indicate the views of the respective nations or specific organizations to which the members belong. While we have received much valuable help form others, the result of study, as well as any errors of fact or judgement, are ours alone. ii Contents Foreword ................................................................................................................................. i The Balance Sheet of the US Allies: Introduction................................................................... 1 Taiwan’s Important Assets and Liabilities in East Asia Security: Ties with the US and Pressure from China ............................................................................................................................. 9 Lithuania – Faithful and Capable US Ally in the Far Corner of NATO ....................................23 Japan Enjoys More Assets than Liabilities on the Balance Sheet of the Alliance: Political Willingness and Support are Critical as well as Fundamental Assets....................................39 Poland – The “Center of Gravity” in the CEE Region and a “Poster Child” of the Trump Administration ......................................................................................................................55 Australia and the US Alliance: Balancing “Loyalty” against “Dependence” ............................75 US-German Alliance: Friends on Stormy Waters ..................................................................91 Balance Sheet of US Allies ................................................................................................. 109 iii iv Introduction The Balance Sheet of the US Allies: Introduction Naomi Konda, Ph.D Research Fellow, The Sasakawa Peace Foundation According to the National Security Strategy (NSS) of the Trump administration published in December 2017, today’s world is becoming more competitive.1 The US and its allies are facing growing political, economic, and military competition around the world. Two revisionist states, China and Russia, are challenging US prosperity and superiority as well as the liberal international order. The NSS also pointed out that strong relationships with allies are invaluable in order for the US to magnify its power and respond to the growing political, economic, and military competition. As shown in the NSS, US allies in Asia and Europe are facing similar threats, namely, the emergence of two revisionist states. The other growing pressure on the US allies is that of “burden-sharing”, which the US currently believes is weighted in favor of the allies rather than the US. In Asia, Japan and other US allies have been facing Chinese expansion since the 2010s. China’s unilateral behavior has become more visible, especially so since it became the second largest economic power in 2010, surpassing Japan. China has begun to show its ambitions in the East China Sea, the South China Sea, and even the Pacific Ocean. Notably, since 2012, when the Japanese government nationalized the Senkaku Islands—a small group of islands in the East China Sea—Chinese vessels have more frequently intruded into the waters surrounding these islands and have heightened tensions by coercive use of paramilitary means. In Europe, NATO members are encountering an aggressive Russia that is seeking to expand its territory and sphere of influence at the allies’ Eastern flank. The Russia-Georgian War of 2008 was a prelude to “hybrid warfare” featuring Russian intrusion into the self-proclaimed republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This was followed by Russian military intervention in Ukraine with the “little green men” and Russia’s unilateral annexation of Crimea in 2014. NATO was quick to enhance its defense and deterrence posture at its Eastern flank in order to respond to this new environment. Still, Russia raised tensions by showing its force in the Zapad 2017 military exercise and continuing intervention in Ukraine. It appears that US and its allies in Europe and Asia face similar threats, thus it is likely that the 1 National Security Strategy of the United States, December 2017, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905-2.pdf 1 Introduction US will demand that its allies share an ever greater portion of the defense burden in the future. In fact, at the NATO Brussels Summit in July 2018 President Donald Trump harshly criticized the European allies which had failed to meet the “2% pledge”. The US pressure for a greater contribution to allied defense is not a recent phenomenon. US presidents have been complaining about shortfalls in the defense spending of the US allies for decades. In light of these circumstances, US allies need to consider ways to manage their alliance with the US whilst minimizing any increase of their military role and defense contributions in order that they can maintain public support while still providing an adequate contribution from the US perspective. For the allies to determine the contribution that they need to make, it is essential to make a comparative study and underline the full spectrum of “assets” and “liabilities”, or the “balance sheet” that indicates the value of the ally to the US. By examining the assets that Japan, Poland and other allies can bring to the alliance, we can identify their overall strategic importance to the US. Conversely, it is necessary to examine areas in which each ally may be underperforming and could contribute more to the allied defenses. Through this process, a systematic appreciation, or balance sheet, of each ally’s assets and liabilities can be drawn up, from which US allies can assess their ability to meet the anticipated demands that will be placed upon them by Washington in the future. I. The Objectives: What are the Predicted Outcomes of this Project? To comprehend the assets and liabilities of the US allies, we need to re-examine the allies’ contribution to the alliance and level of cooperation with the
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