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SAN FRANCISCO Savills Research Q4 2019 MARKET IN MINUTES SAN FRANCISCO Savills Research San Francisco shows early signs of market KEY STATISTICS y-o-y Q4 2018 Q4 2019 stabilization as pace of leasing activity cools Change Inventory 79.6 MSF 79.9 MSF Quarterly leasing activity in San Francisco dropped to 1.7 million square feet (msf), marking the lowest amount of quarterly leasing activity in the city since Q2 2017. The Availability Rate 7.9% 9.6% persistent constraints on office supply that San Francisco has been experiencing for Asking Rental Rate $72.29 $81.18 some time appear to be a predominant cause for the lull in leasing. As a result, the overall availability rate rose 240 basis points to 9.6%. Similarly, Class A availability Class A Asking Rental Rate $75.82 $87.36 rose 210 basis points to 8.1%, the highest seen since mid-2018. Overall asking rents Quarterly Leasing Activity 2.5 MSF 1.7 MSF remained relatively constant at $81.18 per square foot (psf), while Class A asking rents dropped 2.1% quarter over quarter to $87.36 psf. The market appears to be stabilizing somewhat; however, tenants still face tight competition for prime space ASKING RENT TRENDS and some of the highest rents in the country. Overall Asking Rent Class A Asking Rent $100.00 High asking rents continue to be a barrier for companies seeking $87.36 prime space $80.00 San Francisco’s eye-popping asking rents appear to be giving mid-tier tenants $81.18 some pause when searching for options in the market. Owners of prime Class A $60.00 space in the city have become accustomed to commanding a significant premium for top-quality space as leading tech giants are willing to pay upwards of $110.00 $ / SF $40.00 - $120.00 psf for large blocks in choice locations. However, this top tier of tech companies has appeared to settle into place for now, and the market hasn’t seen $20.00 significant movement within that sphere this quarter. Smaller and mid-sized companies have balked at the climbing rents and many tenants have decided $0.00 to seek out more affordable options in other markets, resulting in asking rents Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 2019 slowly starting to plateau. AVAILABILITY TRENDS Overall Availability Class A Availability Development in South San Francisco shows companies are willing 15.0% to look to non-traditional markets South San Francisco has become an emerging market for companies looking to 9.6% stay in the Bay Area, but want to escape the market constrictions of San Francisco. 10.0% The market has historically been a hub for biotech companies, but it hasn’t developed a great deal of office space. While Oakland has traditionally been the 8.1% premier value option, new office developments in South San Francisco and the 5.0% peninsula have emerged as viable competition. Kilroy's Oyster Point and BioMed Realty's Gateway of the Pacific are two under-construction developments that will increase South San Francisco's office stock once completed. These developments 0.0% will provide a high-quality alternative for tenants looking outside the city. Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 2019 LEASING ACTIVITY Outlook 4.0 Quarterly Leasing Activity 5-Year Quarterly Average • Rising availability rates and plateauing rents appear to be early 3.5 signs of market stabilization 3.0 • As supply constrictions continue to abound, South San Francisco 2.5 emerges as an option for tenants looking to relocate outside of the 2.0 city, but to stay within the Bay Area 1.5 • Bolstered by its rich tech presence and highly skilled work force, 1.0 San Francisco continues to be one of the premier office markets in Square feet (millions) 0.5 the country 0.0 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 2019 San Francisco Market in Minutes - Q4 2019 MAJOR TRANSACTIONS 75.7% 40.9% 45.1% of major transactions were of major transactions occurred in the Financial Services accounted for 45.1% new locations Mission Bay/Showplace Square of major transactions Tenant Square feet Address Transaction type Submarket Industry Mission Bay/Showplace Visa 300,000 1051 3rd Street New Location Financial Services Square Uber 79,674 71 Stevenson Street New Location Financial District South Technology Reed Smith LLP 63,317 101 Second Street Renewal Financial District South Legal Services Scale 56,721 625 2nd Street New Location Rincon/South Beach Technology EasyPost 51,156 345 California Street New Location Financial District North Technology Stripe 47,416 410 Townsend Street New Lease SOMA Technology Sentry.io 36,792 45 Fremont Street New Location Financial District South Technology Triage Consulting Group 36,668 221 Main Street Renewal Financial District South Professional Services For more information, Credit Suisse 31,170 650 California Street Renewal Financial District North Financial Services please contact us: (Investment Banking) Covington & Burling LLP 31,005 One Front Street New Location Financial District North Legal Services Savills 150 California Street 14th Floor *Lease is outside of Savills-tracked market boundaries, included for market significance Source Savills Research San Francisco, CA 94111 +1 415 421 5900 AVAILABILITY RATE COMPARISON RENTAL RATE COMPARISON ($/SF) Steve Barker San Francisco Submarkets San Francisco Submarkets Vice Chairman, Director, Branch Manager [email protected] Mission Bay/Showplace Financial District South $87.11 Square 5.9% Rincon/South Beach 6.5% Financial District North $85.93 Christophe Haeberlin Research Manager Mission Bay/Showplace $85.22 [email protected] Financial District South 7.3% Square Rincon/South Beach $82.43 Financial District North 9.4% About Savills Inc. Savills helps organizations find the San Francisco Overall 9.6% San Francisco Overall $81.18 right solutions that ensure employee success. Sharply skilled and fiercely dedicated, the firm’s SOMA Yerba Buena 11.9% $77.72 integrated teams of consultants and brokers are experts in better real estate. With services in tenant Waterfront/North Beach 15.3% Waterfront/North Beach $73.15 representation, workforce and incentives strategy, workplace Jackson Square 17.3% Jackson Square $70.32 strategy and occupant experience, project management, and capital markets, Savills has elevated the SOMA 17.4% Union Square/Civic Center $69.12 potential of workplaces around the corner, and around the world, for Union Square/Civic Center 17.9% Yerba Buena $63.46 160 years and counting. 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% $0.00 $30.00 $60.00 $90.00 For more information, please visit Savills.us and follow us on LinkedIn, Twitter, Instagram and Facebook. Unless otherwise noted, all rents quoted throughout this report are average asking gross (full service) rents per square foot. Statistics are calculated using both direct and sublease information. Current and historical availability and rent data are subject to change due to changes in inventory. The information in this report is obtained from sources deemed reliable, but no representation is made as to the accuracy thereof. Unless otherwise noted, source for data is Savills Research. Copyright © 2019 Savills savills.us.
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