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(WCTIS) Phase 3 & 4: A40 Eastbound from Arle Court to TGI Fridays

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West Cheltenham Transport Improvement Scheme (WCTIS) Phase 3 & 4: A40 Eastbound from Arle Court to TGI Fridays (A40/A4633) Full Business Case (FBC) Gloucestershire County Council (GCC) 07 May 2020 WCTIS Phases 3 & 4 Notice This document and its contents have been prepared and are intended solely as information for Gloucestershire County Council (GCC) and use in relation to the Full Business Case. Atkins Limited assumes no responsibility to any other party in respect of or arising out of or in connection with this document and/or its contents. This document has 115 pages including the cover. Document history Document title: Full Business Case (FBC) Document reference: WCTIS Phase 3 & 4 Origin- Revision Purpose description ated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date Rev 1.0 First draft for AECOM IS JB FQ RS 09/04/2020 Rev 2.0 First draft for AECOM IS JB FQ RS 17/04/2020 Rev 3.0 Final IS JB FQ RS 07/05/2020 Client signoff Client Gloucestershire County Council (GCC) Project West Cheltenham Transport Improvement Scheme (WCTIS) Phase 3 & 4: A40 Eastbound from Arle Court to TGI Fridays (A40/A4633): A40 Eastbound from Arle Court to TGI Fridays (A40/A4633) Job number 5188790 Client signature/date Contains sensitive information WCTIS Phases 3 & 4 | 1.0 | 07 May 2020 Atkins | WCTIS Phases 3 4 - FBC website 290520.docx Page 2 of 115 Contents Chapter Page Executive Summary 7 1. Introduction 8 1.1. Overview 8 1.2. Background to the Full Business Case (FBC) 8 1.3. WCTIS Phases 3 & 4 9 1.4. Scheme area and summary 9 1.5. Objectives 11 1.6. Document structure 11 2. Strategic Case 12 2.1. Introduction 12 2.2. Local policy context 15 2.3. Existing travel demand and level of service 21 2.4. Future challenges 27 2.5. Summary of identified problems and impact of not changing 29 2.6. Objectives 30 2.7. Scheme constraints and dependencies 30 2.8. Scheme selection and option identification 30 2.9. Scheme impacts and outcomes 39 3. Economic Case 41 3.1. Overview 41 3.2. Methodology 42 3.3. Environment Appraisal 46 3.4. Social and Distributional Impacts 67 3.5. Reliability Impacts 70 3.6. Economic Appraisal Results: Core Scenario 70 3.7. Value for Money Statement 78 3.8. Sensitivity testing 82 4. Financial Case 83 4.1. Overview 83 4.2. Breakdown and Time Profile of Project Costs 83 4.3. Project Funding 83 4.4. Financial Risk Management Strategy 84 4.5. Ongoing Maintenance 85 4.6. Land Purchase 85 5. Commercial Case 86 5.1. Introduction 86 5.2. Expected Outcomes from the Commercial Strategy 86 5.3. Scheme Procurement Strategy 86 5.4. Commercial Risk Assessment 87 6. Management Case 88 6.1. Overview 88 6.2. Project Governance, Roles and Responsibilities 88 Contains sensitive information WCTIS Phases 3 & 4 | 1.0 | 07 May 2020 Atkins | WCTIS Phases 3 4 - FBC website 290520.docx Page 3 of 115 6.3. Project Management Structure 88 6.4. Public Share Events 89 6.5. Communications and Engagement Management 91 6.6. Stakeholder engagement 91 6.7. Evidence of Previously Successful Management Strategy 96 6.8. Design and Construction Methodology 97 6.9. Legal Powers Required for Construction 99 6.10. Project Programme 99 6.11. Benefits Realisation Strategy 99 6.12. Monitoring and Evaluation Plan 100 7. Conclusion 103 7.1. Summary 103 7.2. Recommended Next Steps 103 Appendices 104 Appendix A. Modelling Technical Note 105 Appendix B. Paramics Forecasting Report (Jacobs) 106 Appendix C. Local Model Validation Report (LMVR) 107 Appendix D. Social and Distributional Impacts (SDI) 108 Appendix E. Appraisal Summary Table 109 Appendix F. Noise Modelling 110 Appendix G. Air Quality 111 Appendix H. Quantified Risk Register 112 Appendix I. Programme 113 Appendix J. Scheme drawings 114 Appendix K. Environmental Mitigation and Enhancement Review 115 Tables Table 2-1 - West of Cheltenham Transport Improvement Scheme (WCTIS) and WCWCI 12 Table 2-2: Strategic objectives and priorities for WCTIS Phase 3 and 4 13 Table 2-3 - 24hr AADT flows on the A40 between Arle Court and TGI Fridays traffic lights. 21 Table 2-4 - WCTIS Phases 3 and 4, Accidents, 2014 - 2018 21 Table 2-5 - WCTIS Phases 3 and 4, Accidents in the impact area 22 Table 2-6 - TEMPro trip end forecasts and growth factors in Cheltenham 2017-2031 (AM Peak)27 Table 2-7 - Current challenges and their future impacts 29 Table 2-8 - Options Assessment, cumulative scoring 31 Table 2-9 - Route 1 Journey Time Comparison (AM-peak, journey time (s)) 35 Table 2-10 - Route 1 Journey Time Comparison (PM-peak, journey time (s)) 36 Table 2-11 - Route 2 Journey Time Comparison (AM-peak, journey time (s)) 36 Table 2-12 - Route 2 Journey Time Comparison (PM-peak, journey time (s)) 37 Table 2-13 - Route 3 Journey Time Comparison (AM-peak, journey time (s)) 37 Table 2-14 - Route 3 Journey Time Comparison (PM-peak, journey time (s)) 37 Table 2-15 - Phase 4 Journey Time Comparison, Route 1 AM 39 Contains sensitive information WCTIS Phases 3 & 4 | 1.0 | 07 May 2020 Atkins | WCTIS Phases 3 4 - FBC website 290520.docx Page 4 of 115 Table 2-16 - Phase 4 Journey Time Comparison, Route 1 PM 39 Table 2-17 - Summary of scheme impacts on transport objectives 39 Table 3-1 - Paramics Discovery and TUBA Parameters 42 Table 3-2 - Count and Seed Values from the Paramics Model Runs Removed During Filtering 42 Table 3-3 - Proportion of Demand Filtered from the 2017, 2021 and 2031 Matrices 43 Table 3-4 - Scheme Capital Costs, 2020 prices 43 Table 3-5 – Transport Economic Efficiency Benefits (all values in £000s) 71 Table 3-6 – Sectoral distribution of benefits 76 Table 3-7 - PA Table (all values in £000s) 77 Table 3-8 – Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits (all values in £000s) 78 Table 3-9 - DfT VfM Categories 79 Table 3-10 - Summary of Forecast Growth Sensitivity Tests (values in £000s) 82 Table 4-1 - Breakdown of scheme capital costs, 2019 prices 83 Table 4-2 - Scheme funding sources and profile of contributions 83 Table 4-3 - Security and availability of scheme funding contributions 84 Table 4-4 - Qualitative financial risk assessment 85 Table 5-1 - Scheme Commercial Risk Assessment 87 Table 6-1 – Online Feedback Form Responses 90 Table 6-2 - Stakeholder categorisation approach 91 Table 6-3 - Stakeholder engagement levels 91 Table 6-4 - Stakeholder management strategy and method 92 Table 6-5 - Themes identified from comments received 93 Table 6-6 - Programme key dates 99 Table 6-7 - Logic map between scheme objectives and desired outputs and outcomes 100 Table 6-8 - Benefits realisation responsibilities 100 Table 6-9 – Current Traffic Flows, A40 ATC 101 Table 6-10 - Outputs and outcomes - indicators and targets 102 Figures Figure 1-1 - WCTIS Phase 3 & 4 Scheme Location 9 Figure 1-2 - Artists Impression: Telstar Way Junction 10 Figure 1-3 - Artists Impression: Benhall Roundabout, approaching eastbound 10 Figure 1-4 - Artists Impression: Benhall Roundabout, approaching westbound 11 Figure 2-1 – Cyber Central Scheme Location Map 20 Figure 2-2 - Pedestrian, cyclist and motor vehicle accidents by severity, West Cheltenham 23 Figure 2-3 DfT Accident data 2014-2018 at the A40/Telstar Way Junction 23 Figure 2-4 DfT Accident data 2014-2018 at Benhall Roundabout 24 Figure 2-5 DfT Accident data 2014-2018 along the A40 between Benhall Roundabout and Benhall Gardens 25 Figure 2-6 - Stagecoach West route map, Cheltenham 26 Figure 2-7 - Growth from Base 2017 to DM 2021, AM Peak Hour 28 Figure 2-8 - Growth from Base 2017 to DM 2021, PM Peak Hour 29 Contains sensitive information WCTIS Phases 3 & 4 | 1.0 | 07 May 2020 Atkins | WCTIS Phases 3 4 - FBC website 290520.docx Page 5 of 115 Figure 2-9 - Phases 3 & 4 Scheme Location 33 Figure 2-10 - Do Minimum Network Layout – Phase 3 33 Figure 2-11 - Route 1 - Arle Court to TGI Fridays (A40) 35 Figure 3-1 – Core Scenario Transport economic efficiency structure by travel purpose 72 Figure 3-2 - Core Scenario profile of Present Value of Benefit per year 73 Figure 3-3 - Core Scenario Benefit profile breakdown by Purpose 74 Figure 3-4 - Sector System 75 Figure 3-5 - Core Scenario Sectoral Distribution 76 Figure 3-6 - Value for Money of the scheme, costs and benefits structure, £000s 81 Figure 6-1 - Project Management Structure 89 Figure 6-2 - Letter drop area 90 Figure 6-3 - Works compound proposals 98 Contains sensitive information WCTIS Phases 3 & 4 | 1.0 | 07 May 2020 Atkins | WCTIS Phases 3 4 - FBC website 290520.docx Page 6 of 115 Executive Summary This report is the Full Business Case (FBC) for Phases 3 and 4 of West Cheltenham Transport Improvement Scheme (WCTIS). The scheme represents the final two phases of WCTIS, and the package of transport improvements considered to be appropriate to achieve the policy aims and objectives of the GFirst Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP). The overall budget for the scheme is £8.29m, of the total cost for WCTIS of £22m. The proposal is a highway scheme but, has been developed in conjunction with the associated West Cheltenham Walking and Cycling Improvement Scheme (WCWCI). WCWCI is subject to a discrete Business Case and, will compliment the WCTIS proposal which is by its nature, highway capacity focussed. GCC are committed to promoting and completing transport schemes that benefit all users, not just for the private motorist, and this WCTIS is therefore linked intrinsically to WCWCI.
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