FEMA Region II Hurricane Annex for Puerto Rico & US Virgin

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

FEMA Region II Hurricane Annex for Puerto Rico & US Virgin FEMA Region II Hurricane Annex for Puerto Rico & US Virgin Islands October 20, 2014 1 FEMA Region II Hurricane Annex for PR & VI This page intentionally left blank. For Official Use Only / Not For Public Distribution Page | 1 FEMA Region II Hurricane Annex for PR & VI Table of Contents Preface ........................................................................................................ 5 Purpose ....................................................................................................... 6 Situation ...................................................................................................... 7 Scope .......................................................................................................... 7 Planning Assumptions and Critical Considerations .............................. 8 Concept of Operations .............................................................................. 9 Concept of Support .................................................................................. 15 Key Federal Decisions ............................................................................. 16 Information Requirements ...................................................................... 17 Coordinating Instructions ....................................................................... 17 Oversight, Annex Development, and Maintenance ............................... 18 Authorities and References .................................................................... 18 Cultural Awareness .................................................................................. 18 Appendix 1: Planning .............................................................................. 20 Tab 1 to Appendix 1: Risk Management ................................................ 24 Tab 2 to Appendix 1: Situational Assessment ...................................... 36 Appendix 2: Operational Coordination .................................................. 55 Tab 1 to Appendix 2: Public Information and Warning......................... 63 For Official Use Only / Not For Public Distribution Page | 2 FEMA Region II Hurricane Annex for PR & VI Tab 2 to Appendix 2: Public Health and Medical Services ................... 77 Tab 3 to Appendix 2: Environmental Response / Health and Safety ... 83 Tab 4 to Appendix 2: Fatality Management ........................................... 89 Tab 5 to Appendix 2: Infrastructure Systems ........................................ 93 Tab 6 to Appendix 2: Mass Care / Emergency Services ..................... 100 Tab 7 to Appendix 2: Mass Search and Rescue Operations .............. 108 Tab 8 to Appendix 2: On-Scene Security and Protection ................... 112 Appendix 3: Operational Support ......................................................... 116 Tab 1 to Appendix 3: Critical Transportation ...................................... 121 Tab 2 to Appendix 3: Mass Evacuation ................................................ 127 Appendix 4: Operational Communications ......................................... 129 Appendix 5: Executive Checklist .......................................................... 132 Appendix 6: List of Acronyms .............................................................. 138 For Official Use Only / Not For Public Distribution Page | 3 FEMA Region II Hurricane Annex for PR & VI Figure List Figure 1: Operational Phases Figure A1-1: Map of Surge Zones – Puerto Rico Figure A1-2: Map of Surge Zones – US Virgin Islands Figure A1-3: Map of Flood Zones – Puerto Rico Figure A1-4: Historical Hurricane Tracks Affecting Puerto Rico/US Virgin Islands Area Figure A1-5: Flood Inundation Maps from Puerto Rico for Zone AE Figure A1-6: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook: 48 Hour and Five Day Figure A1-7: Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities Figure A1-8: Five-Day Track Forecast Cone Figure A1-9: Combined Hazard Threat Graphic Sample from NWS, San Juan Office Figure A1-10: Weather Prediction Center Rainfall Forecast for Bertha Figure A1-11a: River Gage Location Map Figure A1-11b: River Gage Observed Water Level Data Sample Figure A1-12: USACE Disaster Impact Model: Debris Model Sample Output Figure A1-13: National Hurricane Program Roles and Responsibilities Figure A1-14: Hurricane Liaison Team Communication Flowchart Table List Table A1-1: Classification of Tropical Cyclones Table A1-2: Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Table A1-3: Core Capabilities and Projected Impacts from Hurricanes Table A1-4: Number of Recorded Storms affecting Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands Table A1-5: Mean Hurricane Return Periods – Caribbean Area. Table A1-6: Puerto Rico Housing and Population in Flood Zones Table A1-7: Availability of Federal Tropical Cyclone Products through Time Table A1-8: National Hurricane Program Components Table A5-1: Timelines of Expected Actions by Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands Table A5-2: FEMA Region II Caribbean Hurricane Executive Checklist For Official Use Only / Not For Public Distribution Page | 4 FEMA Region II Hurricane Annex for PR & VI Preface Disasters know no borders between nations, states, or tribal lands and communities, risks and vulnerabilities affect all of us. Working together, communicating with the whole community, we can leverage our resources to protect, prevent and minimize the impact of disasters and help each other recover. FEMA Region II is responsible for coordinating the Federal Response during emergencies and major or catastrophic events within Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands territories. These jurisdictions of the Caribbean Area demanding close attention not only because of their tourism value, bustling pharmaceuticals industry, rum production, and healthcare technological advances; it is home to 3,832,194 of U.S. citizens that may ultimately rely on off-island support in times of disaster. The Caribbean Area is familiar with the threat of tropical cyclones. We only need go back a decade or two to recall some severely destructive storms to affect the islands. Hurricane Hugo (1989) – wiped out most of St. Croix (USVI) destroying the entire infrastructure on the island. Twenty-three (23) foot waves came crashing ashore. Ultimately, to establish on- scene protection on St. Croix, the USVI government was forced to deploy over 1,000 US Military Police. Puerto Rico was next where thirteen (13) foot waves came ashore. Devastation continued inland with a huge loss of agricultural (coffee and banana) crops. Sadly, fourteen lives were lost, totaling from both Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Hurricane Marilyn (1995) – caused such significant amounts of debris in the Port of St. Thomas; it took well over ten days to re-open the port safely. There were over 10,000 people left homeless and ten deaths. Massive landslides occurred across Puerto Rico. Hurricane Hortense (1996) – struck Puerto Rico leaving over 1.1 million people without water and over 1.3 million people without power. The power failure ultimately led to dam gates malfunctioning, aiding to the widespread flooding. Floods caused the most deaths from the event, 19 in total. Crops and roads were damaged in excess of $150M. Hurricane Georges (1998) – moved from east to west over the island of Puerto Rico and inflicted the worst damage the island has seen. An unprecedented major disaster declaration for all 78 municipalities was issued by the President. 3.6 million Residents were left without electricity for several months, over 40 bridges damaged lacking access to the communities, and over 2.5M cubic yards of debris was collected. Electricity was unavailable as transmission lines that crossed mountainous terrain were destroyed and repaired via helicopters. The Federal Government deployed 4,800 employees to support Puerto Rico. In total, since Hurricane Hugo, damages in the Caribbean have exceeded $6 billion. FEMA’s programmatic efforts have been tremendous. Federal Mission Assignments to other Federal agencies during response operations have included deploying the US Marshals, supplying For Official Use Only / Not For Public Distribution Page | 5 FEMA Region II Hurricane Annex for PR & VI and delivering photovoltaic generators, providing helicopters to reconstruct the electrical transmission grid, transporting electrical crews, and providing vegetative debris chippers and grinders. Payouts from the National Flood Insurance Program have exceeded $80M dollars over the past 20 years. Federal preparedness grants for Puerto Rico alone have exceeded $205M. The amount of certified debris management plans is on the rise, bringing more jurisdictions into eligibility status for Public Assistance reimbursement. Mitigation projects and advances in technology have postured the islands to be much more resilient. A majority of critical facilities (including water distribution plants) have back-up power and over 95% of gas stations have generators. Wind retrofitting has been occurring across the islands to better handle hurricane force winds. Dams are being built and maintained across Puerto Rico as flood control and water collection efforts. The number of available shelters (for future events) is increasing. The Distribution Center – Caribbean is a tremendous support to the area keeping generators, tarps, water, meals, and other necessary resources nearest to the people who need it. Although a tremendous amount of work has been accomplished, we must still prepare for the inevitable “big one” that will test local, commonwealth, territorial, and Federal capabilities. This plan addresses those primary
Recommended publications
  • 1 Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Over
    CLIMATOLOGY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO: PROCESSES, PATTERNS AND IMPACTS By JOSÉ JAVIER HERNÁNDEZ AYALA A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2016 1 © 2016 José Javier Hernández Ayala 2 To my beloved Puerto Rico, its atmosphere, environment and people 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The main ideas behind the development of this dissertation came from multiple experiences with tropical cyclones while living in Puerto Rico. Those life experiences motivated me to explore the climate of the tropics, with special attention to the rainfall associated with those extreme events and their role in Puerto Rico’s physical geography. The research conducted in this dissertation was possible from support of Dr. Corene Matyas, Associate Professor and Graduate Coordinator at the Department of Geography at the University of Florida. Her magnificent mentoring and continuous support enable me to invest the necessary effort and time to complete this dissertation. I am truly grateful for her exceptional role as my committee chair. I want to thank Dr. Peter Waylen for his continuous support and all of the inspiring conversations we’ve had about research and life in general that gave me even more strength to continue in this journey towards the PhD. I thank Dr. Timothy Fik for sharing his expertise in quantitative methods through two great courses and for inspiring me to aspire to more in life. Thanks to Dr. Zhong-Ren Peng for being my external committee member and teaching me more about the human dimension of climate related phenomena.
    [Show full text]
  • Hazus Hurricane Wind for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
    Hazus Hurricane Wind for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands May 2021 Hazus Hurricane Wind for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands Table of Contents Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................................... i List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................. vi List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................. viii Acronyms and Abbreviations ....................................................................................................................... x Section 1. Executive Summary .......................................................................................................... 1-1 Section 2. Adapting the Hazus Model for Caribbean Territories ........................................................ 2-1 2.1 A Need for Hazus following Hurricanes Irma and Maria.............................................................. 2-1 2.2 Leveraging Damage Inspections and Local Caribbean Conditions Data ................................... 2-2 2.2.1 Topographic Differences ....................................................................................................... 2-3 2.2.2 Differences in the Built Environment ................................................................................... 2-4 2.2.2.1 Residential
    [Show full text]
  • Historical Perspective
    kZ ­­_!% L , Ti Historical Perspective 2.1 Introduction CROSS REFERENCE Through the years, FEMA, other Federal agencies, State and For resources that augment local agencies, and other private groups have documented and the guidance and other evaluated the effects of coastal flood and wind events and the information in this Manual, performance of buildings located in coastal areas during those see the Residential Coastal Construction Web site events. These evaluations provide a historical perspective on the siting, design, and construction of buildings along the Atlantic, Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and Great Lakes coasts. These studies provide a baseline against which the effects of later coastal flood events can be measured. Within this context, certain hurricanes, coastal storms, and other coastal flood events stand out as being especially important, either Hurricane categories reported because of the nature and extent of the damage they caused or in this Manual should be because of particular flaws they exposed in hazard identification, interpreted cautiously. Storm siting, design, construction, or maintenance practices. Many of categorization based on wind speed may differ from that these events—particularly those occurring since 1979—have been based on barometric pressure documented by FEMA in Flood Damage Assessment Reports, or storm surge. Also, storm Building Performance Assessment Team (BPAT) reports, and effects vary geographically— Mitigation Assessment Team (MAT) reports. These reports only the area near the point of summarize investigations that FEMA conducts shortly after landfall will experience effects associated with the reported major disasters. Drawing on the combined resources of a Federal, storm category. State, local, and private sector partnership, a team of investigators COASTAL CONSTRUCTION MANUAL 2-1 2 HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE is tasked with evaluating the performance of buildings and related infrastructure in response to the effects of natural and man-made hazards.
    [Show full text]
  • What Happened? Irma and Maria -- the Back-To-Back Category 5 Hurricanes of September 2017 in the US Virgin Islands
    What Happened? Irma and Maria -- the back-to-back Category 5 Hurricanes of September 2017 in the US Virgin Islands OCEAN AND COASTAL OBSERVING – VIRGIN ISLANDS, INC. (OCOVI) WWW.OCOVI.ORG Two weeks apart, hurricanes Irma (September 6th) and Maria (September 20th) followed paths that sandwiched the Virgin Islands. Both remained Category 5 storms as they transited the VI region. Irma set a record of ~ 3¼ days in Category 5. What makes our region particularly prone to tropical storms or hurricanes? Abundant warm ocean water, Temperature ≥ 80◦F (26.5◦C) --the ocean water’s heat provides the energy for convection which creates storms; Start-up moisture and spin from pre-existing systems (e.g., waves coming from the African continent); Favorable distance from the equator in order to maximize the spin (Latitude > 4◦ is necessary to maintain the necessary spin; the VI is located around 18◦ N); Remoteness from competing continental systems which can deplete atmospheric moisture; Remoteness from sources of wind shear; Wind shear disrupts Minimal land surface (less debilitating friction, less convection deprivation of moisture). columns Who are we? Where are we? Hurricanes since 1851 Significant quote Alexander Hamilton describing the 1772 hurricane on St. Croix in the Royal Danish American Gazette, August 31,1772: … Good God! what horror and destruction—it's impossible for me to describe—or you to form any idea of it…. A great part of the buildings throughout the Island are levelled to the ground—almost all the rest very much shattered—several persons killed and numbers utterly ruined …our harbour is entirely bare…”.
    [Show full text]
  • Predicting Hurricane Trajectories Using a Recurrent Neural Network
    The Thirty-Third AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-19) Predicting Hurricane Trajectories Using a Recurrent Neural Network Sheila Alemany,1 Jonathan Beltran,1 Adrian Perez,1 Sam Ganzfried1,2 1School of Computing and Information Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL 2Ganzfried Research, Miami, FL fsalem010, jbelt021, apere946g@fiu.edu, [email protected] Abstract have been recently used to forecast increasingly compli- cated systems. RNNs are a class of artificial neural networks Hurricanes are cyclones circulating about a defined center where the modification of weights allows the model to learn whose closed wind speeds exceed 75 mph originating over tropical and subtropical waters. At landfall, hurricanes can intricate dynamic temporal behaviors. A RNN with the ca- result in severe disasters. The accuracy of predicting their tra- pability of efficiently modeling complex nonlinear temporal jectory paths is critical to reduce economic loss and save hu- relationships of a hurricane could increase the accuracy of man lives. Given the complexity and nonlinearity of weather predicting future hurricane path forecasts. Development of data, a recurrent neural network (RNN) could be beneficial such an approach is the focus of this paper. in modeling hurricane behavior. We propose the application While others have used RNNs in the forecasting of of a fully connected RNN to predict the trajectory of hur- weather data, to our knowledge this is the first fully con- ricanes. We employed the RNN over a fine grid to reduce nected recurrent neural networks employed using a grid typical truncation errors. We utilized their latitude, longitude, model for hurricane trajectory forecasts. The proposed wind speed, and pressure publicly provided by the National method can more accurately predict trajectories of hurri- Hurricane Center (NHC) to predict the trajectory of a hur- ricane at 6-hour intervals.
    [Show full text]
  • Marine Damage Report & Dive Sector Needs Assessment Commonwealth of Dominica, Post Hurricane Maria Funded By
    Marine Damage Report & Dive Sector Needs Assessment Commonwealth of Dominica, Post Hurricane Maria Funded by OAS Consultant Arun Madisetti Independent Marine Biologist Needs Assessment for Commonwealth of Dominica Following Hurricane Maria Introduction The Commonwealth of Dominica is known for experiencing extreme weather conditions and earthquakes. The island lies within the hurricane belt and has been impacted by many hurricanes and tropical storms. The most damaging storms in recent years include Hurricane David in 1979, Hurricane Hugo in 1989, Hurricane Marilyn in 1995, Hurricane Lenny in 1999, and Tropical Storm Erika in 2015.2 On August 27, 2015, Tropical Storm Erika hit Dominica. Rainfall of approximately 38 centimeters was recorded in southern Dominica, but because of the peaked topography of the island, it is likely that even higher levels of rainfall occurred in the interior of Dominica due to Tropical Storm Erika. The large amount of rainfall over such a short period caused landslides and flash-floods which resulted in carnage throughout much of the country—the most severe of which was reported on the western and south-eastern coasts. Tragically, 31 people died as a result of the storm and many more were displaced or experienced property loss or damage. The total estimated damage from T.S. Erika in Dominica alone was $483 million USD. The extensive impact of Tropical Storm Erika on Dominica emphasized the significance of hazard preparedness and climate change risk management, particularly at the government level.2 Most recently, Hurricane Maria (Figure 1) struck Dominica the evening of September 18, 2017 and bisected the island from southeast to northwest (Figure 2) during a period of about 8 hours with sustained wind speeds of 160 miles per hour (mph) and wind gusts well in excess of 250 mph (Figure 3).
    [Show full text]
  • RESILIENT HURRICANE RECOVERY PLANNING PRACTICES Tai Harley
    THE UNITED STATES VIRGIN ISLANDS: RESILIENT HURRICANE RECOVERY PLANNING PRACTICES Tai Harley A capstone thesis paper submitted to the Executive Director of the Urban & Regional Planning Program at Georgetown University’s School of Continuing Studies in partial fulfillment of the requirements for Masters of Professional Studies in Urban & Regional Planning. Faculty Advisor: Scott Davis Academic Advisor: Uwe S. Brandes © Copyright 2018 by Tai Harley All Rights Reserved 2 ABSTRACT This thesis paper explores new urban planning practices for resilient recovery of the United States Virgin Islands on the basis of lessons learned from the 2017 hurricanes Irma and Maria. The findings of this research highlight how climate change requires the US Virgin Islands to forge new practices for efficient resilient planning and development. Without effective rebuilding practices, every future hurricane season will pose as a threat on the US Virgin Island’s economy and residents’ welfare. This paper argues that resilient planning initiatives can reduce the disruption of tourism revenue due to loss of infrastructure, telecommunications, and electricity. KEYWORDS United States Virgin Islands, Hurricane, Disaster Preparedness, Climate Change, Resilient Urban Planning, Sustainability, Tourism, Infrastructure, Building Codes 3 RESEARCH QUESTIONS Research question #1 What are the lessons learned from the recent hurricanes Irma and Maria? Research question #2 What are the current best practices for resilience planning in the United States Virgin Islands? Research question #3? Have current best practices incorporated the full spectrum of lessons- learned from recent hurricanes? 4 DEDICATION To my family, friends, and residents of the United States Virgin Islands (my hometown). This thesis paper is dedicated to the recovery efforts of hurricanes Irma and Maria that has forever changed the way of life, for better or for worst.
    [Show full text]
  • Operational Forecasting of Tropical Cyclones Storm Surges at Meteo-France
    OPERATIONAL FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONES STORM SURGES AT METEO-FRANCE PIERRE DANIEL 1; BRUNO HAIE 2; XAVIER AUBAIL 3 1DPREVI/MAR, Météo-France 42 Av Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse Cedex, FRANCE e-mail: [email protected] 2Direction InterRégionale de la Réunion, Météo-France B.P. 4, 97491 – Sainte Clotilde Cedex, Réunion e-mail: [email protected] 3Direction InterRégionale de la Nouvelle Calédonie, Météo-France 1, rue Vincent Auriol, BP 151 – 98845 Nouméa Cedex, Nouvelle-Calédonie e-mail: [email protected] A depth-averaged, numerical storm-surge model has been developed and configured to provide a stand-alone system to forecast tropical cyclone storm-surges. The primary data requirement for modelling storm surges is accurate surface wind and atmospheric pressure fields, in particular in the vicinity of maximum winds. These fields are inferred from an analytical-empirical cyclone model which require only cyclone position, intensity and size. The model has been adapted to run on a personal computer in a few minutes. The storm-surge model was tested in hindcast mode on tropical cyclones which gave significant surges over the French overseas territories over the period 1975- 1990. The system has been operated since the 1990s in the French Antilles, New Caledonia, the French Polynesia and La Reunion. The model can be used in two different ways. In real-time mode as a tropical cyclone is approaching an island or in climatological mode: a cyclone climatology is used to prepare a data base of pre-computed surges. Keywords : storm surge, tropical cyclone, operational model 1. Introduction Strong winds, heavy rains and storm surges are the three dangerous effects of tropical cyclones.
    [Show full text]
  • Tropical Storm and Environmental Forcing on Regional Blue Crab (Callinectes Sapidus) Settlement
    FISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY Fish. Oceanogr. 19:2, 89–106, 2010 Tropical storm and environmental forcing on regional blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) settlement DAVID B. EGGLESTON,* NATHALIE B. ment events generally associated with ‘onshore’ storm REYNS, LISA L. ETHERINGTON,à GAYLE R. tracks that made landfall from the ocean and moved PLAIA AND LIAN XIE inland along a southeasterly ⁄ northwesterly path, or Department of Marine, Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, North ‘coastal’ storms that followed a path roughly parallel to Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-8208, USA the coastline and were located <300 km offshore of the coast. Key words: blue crab, larval dispersal, hurricanes, ABSTRACT recruitment, settlement, tropical storms Global climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and magnitude of hurricanes, typhoons and other extreme cyclonic disturbance events, with little INTRODUCTION known consequences for recruitment dynamics of marine species that rely on wind-driven larval trans- Extreme variation in recruitment of many finfish and port to coastal settlement and nursery habitats. We invertebrate fisheries (Caddy and Gulland, 1983; Sis- conducted a large-scale settlement study of the blue senwine, 1984; Hare and Able, 2007) often masks the crab (Callinectes sapidus) in the Croatan-Albemarle- effects of overexploitation, thereby hampering man- Pamlico Estuarine System (CAPES) in North agement efforts (Ludwig et al., 1993). The need to Carolina, the second largest estuary in the US, during understand seemingly chaotic fluctuations in popula- a 10-yr period that encompassed 35 tropical storms of tion sizes of animals and plants fuels efforts to identify varying magnitudes and tracks, to determine the the relative roles of intertwined external forcing and effects of hurricane track, wind speed and direction as internal feedbacks on population dynamics (May, well as lunar-associated explanatory variables on 1981; Higgins et al., 1997; Cowen et al., 2000; Hare spatiotemporal variation in settlement.
    [Show full text]
  • Coastal Flood and Wind Event Summaries
    Coastal Flood and Wind Event Summaries ii Coastal Flood and Wind Event Summaries TABLE OF CONTENTS COASTAL FLOOD AND WIND EVENT SUMMARIES...................................................................... 1 North Atlantic Coast ................................................................................................................................. 1 Mid-Atlantic Coast .................................................................................................................................... 5 South Atlantic Coast ............................................................................................................................... 11 Gulf of Mexico Coast .............................................................................................................................. 19 U.S. Caribbean Territories ...................................................................................................................... 28 Great Lakes Coast ................................................................................................................................... 30 Pacific Coast ........................................................................................................................................... 32 Hawaii and U. S. Pacific Territories ....................................................................................................... 35 References ..............................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Development of an Objective Scheme to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity from Digital Geostationary Satellite Infrared Imagery
    172 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME 13 Development of an Objective Scheme to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity from Digital Geostationary Satellite Infrared Imagery CHRISTOPHER S. VELDEN AND TIMOTHY L. OLANDER Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, Madison, Wisconsin RAYMOND M. ZEHR Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, Colorado (Manuscript received 17 July 1996, in ®nal form 10 August 1997) ABSTRACT The standard method for estimating the intensity of tropical cyclones is based on satellite observations (Dvorak technique) and is utilized operationally by tropical analysis centers around the world. The technique relies on image pattern recognition along with analyst interpretation of empirically based rules regarding the vigor and organization of convection surrounding the storm center. While this method performs well enough in most cases to be employed operationally, there are situations when analyst judgment can lead to discrepancies between different analysis centers estimating the same storm. In an attempt to eliminate this subjectivity, a computer-based algorithm that operates objectively on digital infrared information has been developed. An original version of this algorithm (engineered primarily by the third author) has been signi®cantly modi®ed and advanced to include selected ``Dvorak rules,'' additional constraints, and a time-averaging scheme. This modi®ed version, the Objective Dvorak Technique (ODT), is applicable to tropical cyclones that have attained tropical storm or hurricane strength. The performance of the ODT is evaluated on cases from the 1995 and 1996 Atlantic hurricane seasons. Reconnaissance aircraft measurements of minimum surface pressure are used to validate the satellite-based estimates. Statistical analysis indicates the technique to be competitive with, and in some cases superior to, the Dvorak-based intensity estimates produced operationally by satellite analysts from tropical analysis centers.
    [Show full text]
  • 2010 Hurricane Season Preparedness Manual
    2010 Hurricane Season Preparedness Manual Updated June 10, 2010 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST (June 1 – November 30) Active to Very Active Season (85% chance of above normal season). Weather Dr. Klotzbach Average System NOAA* & Dr. Gray** Year Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph 14 – 23 15 9.6 or higher) Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph 8 – 14 8 5.9 or higher) Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 3 – 7 4 2.3 mph) * NOAA Issues 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, Encourages Preparedness, May 27, 2010 ** Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2010, as of April 7, 2010 UVI Hurricane Preparedness Manual 2 2010 Storm Names Atlantic Alex Fiona Karl Paula Bonnie Gaston Lisa Richard Colin Hermine Matthew Shary Danielle Igor Nicole Tomas Earl Julia Otto Virginie Walter Saffir – Simpson Hurricane Scale Tropical Storm Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4 Category 5 39-73 mph wind 74-95 mph wind 96-110 mph wind 111-130 mph wind 131-155 mph wind > 155 mph wind UVI Hurricane Preparedness Manual 3 HURRICANE & WEATHER WEBSITES • National Hurricane Center www.nhc.noaa.gov VI Hurricane History • The Caribbean Weather Center www.caribwx.com Hurricanes and tropical storms that have hit the Virgin Islands in recent years include: • Intellicast www.intellicast.com • The Weather Channel www.weather.com 2008 – Hurricane Omar • The Weather Underground 2004 – Tropical Storm Jeanne www.wunderground.com 1999 – Hurricane Lenny • Stormpulse 1998 – Hurricane Georges www.stormpulse.com 1996 – Hurricane Bertha • Caribbean Hurricane Network www.stormcarib.com 1995 – Hurricane Marilyn • Disaster Message Service (DMS) 1995 – Hurricane Luis www.viexpo.com 1989 – Hurricane Hugo DMS is a public service website provided by 1984 – Tropical Storm Klaus www.VInow.com It was developed to facilitate 1979 – Hurricane Frederic communication and provide information about and during disasters around the world.
    [Show full text]