Odds Compiler
Chelsea v Spurs Arsenal v Saints Sunderland v Man City
Betting analysis and preview of the Betting analysis and preview of Betting analysis and preview of the game at Stamford Bridge Wednesday’s game game at The Stadium of Light
odds compiler football betting magazine
Midweek Edition 2nd November - 3rd November 2014
ISSUEI IV II Odds Compiler
A Football Betting Magazine with a betting preview of each English Premier League game.
Contents
ach English Premier League game has IV Burnley v Newcastle United a two page spread with likely starting Eline-ups and formation, average odds VI Leicester City v Liverpool from the bookmakers and true odds (by removing the bookmakers profit margin). VIII Manchester United v Stoke City The true odds allows the bettor to determine if a certain bookmaker is giving value odds X Swansea City v Queens Park Rangers or not.
To further increase the bettor’s chance of XII Crystal Palace v Aston Villa making a profit, expected goals are given and these are used with the Poisson Formula XIV West Bromwich v West Ham United to give a chance for each likely correct score. See the Glossary at the back for a XVI Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur description of the Poisson Formula. XVIII Sunderland v Manchester City An advised bet is given for each Premier League game (if there is sufficient value) XX Arsenal v Southampton with the best odds at time of writing. These odds (or greater) should be taken and XXII Everton v Hull City smaller odds left.
Odds are given as decimal odds (European Odds format). These odds are easier for the XXIV Odds Ready Reckoner bettor to understand than fractional odds (UK Odds format), although there is an XXV Glossary Odds Ready Reckoner in the back of this publication.
III STARTING XI Heaton Elliot Burnley Trippier Janmaat versus Newcastle United
Keane Dummett Tuesday 7:45 pm
Shackell Williamson Duff is a doubt and should miss another game today with Michael Keane taking his place in central defence. Kightly and Jutkiewicz will be pushing for Ward Haidara starts. Arfield Anita For Newcastle, Tim Krul will again miss out as well as key players Moussa Sissoko, Jack Colback (both suspended), Coloccini, De Jong, Aarons and Santon. Jones Tiote Pardew also has doubts in defence with Janmaat and Williamon although Steven Taylor is available. Marney Gouffran Cisse or Ayoze Perez will start in attack. Boyd Ameobi Bet Slip Barnes Cabella Newcastle United to win £5.00 Ings Cisse advised bet pays 2.75 Coral £13.75
IV Odds Compiler
Expected Goals
Betting Company ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total
Bookmakers 1.12 1.18 -0.06 2.30 Spreads 1.15 1.25 -0.10 2.40
Odds
Home Draw Away Margin
Average Odds 2.80 3.22 2.61 -5.1% True Odds 2.94 3.41 2.73 0.0% Chance 34.0% 29.4% 36.6% 0.0%
Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)
Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 1 - 1 13.2% 7.58 current opposition and is worked out from attack and defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 0 - 1 11.7% 8.56 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 1 - 0 11.0% 9.10 margin of victory. 0 - 0 9.7% 10.28 1 - 2 7.9% 12.63 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. 2 - 1 7.5% 13.42 See Glossary for Poisson Distribution.
Burnley Newcastle United Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up
Heaton Elliot
Trippier Keane Shackell Ward Janmaat Williamson Dummett Haidara
Tiote Anita Arfield Jones Marney Boyd
Barnes Gouffran Cabella Ameobi
Ings Cisse
V STARTING XI Schmeichel Mignolet Foxes De Laet Johnson versus Liverpool
Morgan Skrtel Tuesday 7:45 pm
Wasilewski Toure Both Matthew Upson and Dean Hammond have returned to training for Leicester but it will be too soon for a start for either player. Dave Nugent is a Konchesky Enrique doubt after picking up a knock and Drinkwater, King and Albrighton will be pushing for a start. James Sterling Liverpool still have Sturridge, Balotelli and Sakho missing although the later has returned to full Cambiasso Gerrard training. Manquillo, Moreno and Lovren will be options in defence for Brendan Rodgers.
Schlupp Allen 3.75 for the draw is probably the biggest value amongst all of the EPL’s midweek matches. Mahrez Henderson Bet Slip Vardy Coutinho The Draw £7.00 Ulloa Lambert advised bet pays 3.75 Boylesports £26.25
VI Odds Compiler
Expected Goals
Betting Company ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total
Bookmakers 1.10 1.53 -0.43 2.63 Spreads 1.15 1.70 -0.55 2.85
Odds
Home Draw Away Margin
Average Odds 3.74 3.46 2.03 -4.9% True Odds 3.98 3.67 2.10 0.0% Chance 25.1% 27.3% 47.6% 0.0%
Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)
Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 1 - 1 11.8% 8.50 current opposition and is worked out from attack and defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 0 - 1 10.5% 9.52 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 1 - 2 9.5% 10.56 margin of victory. 0 - 2 8.5% 11.83 1 - 0 7.3% 13.69 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. 2 - 1 6.6% 15.18 See Glossary for Poisson Distribution.
Leicester City Liverpool Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up
Scmeichel Mignolet
De Lest Morgan Wasilewski Konchesky Johnson Skrtel Toure Enrique
Schlupp Mahrez Cambiasso James Henderson Gerrard Allen
Ulloah Vardy Coutinho Lambert Sterling
VII STARTING XI De Gea Begovic Man Utd Young Bardsley versus Stoke City
Smalling Shawcross Tuesday 7:45 pm
Rojo Wilson Angel Di Maria is a big loss after suffering a hamstring injury against Hull and Wayne Rooney is Valencia Pieters a slight doubt although Falcao is back for United. Phil Jones, Luke Shaw and Blind definitely miss out. Carrick N’Zonzi Stoke have injuries to Huth, Moses, Odemwingie. Sidwell and Glenn Whelan but have Charlie Adam, Fellaini Cameron Oussama Assaidi and Peter Crouch to choose from. Manchester United’s home form is very good but Stoke are one of the teams that can cause an upset Januzaj Bojan to the ‘bigger’ teams and a draw may be a good bet if odds of greater than around 4.55 can be found. Mata Arnautovic Bet Slip Rooney Walters No Bet Van Persie Diouf
VIII Odds Compiler
Expected Goals
Betting Company ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total
Bookmakers 1.78 0.79 0.99 2.57 Spreads 2.00 0.80 1.20 2.80
Odds
Home Draw Away Margin
Average Odds 1.50 4.21 6.85 -5.0% True Odds 1.54 4.53 7.74 0.0% Chance 65.0% 22.1% 12.9% 0.0%
Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)
Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 1 - 0 13.0% 7.72 current opposition and is worked out from attack and defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 2 - 0 12.2% 8.17 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 1 - 1 10.2% 9.77 margin of victory. 2 - 1 9.7% 10.34 3 - 0 7.7% 12.96 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. 0 - 0 6.9% 14.59 See Glossary for Poisson Distribution.
Manchester United Stoke City Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up
De Gea Begovic
Valencia Rojo Smalling Young Bardsley Shawcross Wilson Pieters
N’Zonzi Cameron Mata Fellaini Carrick Januzaj
Walters Bojan Arnautovic
Van Persie Rooney Diouf
IX STARTING XI Fabianski Green Swansea Rangel Isla versus Queens Park Rangers
Williams Dunne Tuesday 7:45 pm
Bartley Caulker Jonjo Shelvey and Tom Carroll are options in central midfield for Swansea as is Wayne Routledge out Taylor Yun wide. Fernandez will likely miss the game being replaced by Kyle Bartley. Ki Kranjcar Harry Redknapp does not have too many problems except for Bobby Zamora who will need to be Britton Barton assessed before kick off. Dyer Henry Montero Fer Bet Slip Sigurdsson Vargas No bet Bony Austin
X Odds Compiler
Expected Goals
Betting Company ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total
Bookmakers 1.67 0.86 0.81 2.53 Spreads 1.80 0.90 0.90 2.70
Odds
Home Draw Away Margin
Average Odds 1.70 3.72 5.25 -4.8% True Odds 1.75 3.95 5.73 0.0% Chance 57.2% 25.3% 17.5% 0.0%
Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)
Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 1 - 0 12.9% 7.78 current opposition and is worked out from attack and defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 1 - 1 11.2% 8.95 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 2 - 0 11.1% 9.00 margin of victory. 2 - 1 9.7% 10.34 0 - 0 7.4% 13.46 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. 0 - 1 6.5% 15.48 See Glossary for Poisson Distribution.
Swansea City Queens Park Rangers Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up
Fabianski Green
Rangel Williams Bartley Taylor Isla Dunne Caulker Yun
Britton Ki Kranjcar Barton Henry Fer Montero Sigurdsson Dyer
Bony Austin Vargas
XI STARTING XI Speroni Guzan Palace Kelly Hutton versus Aston Villa
Dann Okore Tuesday 8 pm
Hangeland Clark Delaney is still a doubt and Hangeland should start again for Palace. Zaha or Puncheon will play on the right but Gayle is a doubt and Fraizer Campbell may Ward Cissokho come in. Zaha Westwood Good news for Villa fans as Christian Benteke is back from suspension and will lead the line for his team. Lambert though, again looks to be without Vlaar, McArthur Cleverley Senderos and Baker. Ciaran Clark is also a slight concern.
Jedinak Sanchez A small value bet may be on a 1-0 win to Villa @ 11.50 with Bet Victor. Bolasie Weimann Bet Slip Chamakh Agbonlahor Aston Villa to win 1-0 £1.00 Campbell Benteke advised odds pays 11.50 BetVictor £11.50
XII Odds Compiler
Expected Goals
Betting Company ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total
Bookmakers 1.32 0.91 0.41 2.23 Spreads 1.40 0.95 0.45 2.35
Odds
Home Draw Away Margin
Average Odds 2.05 3.30 3.84 -5.1% True Odds 2.12 3.50 4.11 0.0% Chance 47.1% 28.6% 24.3% 0.0%
Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)
Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 1 - 0 13.9% 7.19 current opposition and is worked out from attack and defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 1 - 1 12.8% 7.81 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 0 - 0 10.2% 9.78 margin of victory. 2 - 0 9.5% 10.57 0 - 1 9.4% 10.63 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. 2 - 1 8.7% 11.49 See Glossary for Poisson Distribution.
Crystal Palace Aston Villa Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up
Speroni Guzan
Kelly Dann Hangeland Ward Hutton Okore Clark Cissokho
Zaha McArthur Jedinak Bolasie Westwood Cleverley Sanchez Chamakh
Campbell Weimann Benteke Agbonlahor
XIII STARTING XI Foster Adrian WBA Wisdom Jenkinson versus West Ham United
Lescott Tomkins Tuesday 8 pm
Dawson Collins West Brom have doubts over Morrison and Pocognoli while Yacob is still suspended. With Anichebe and Ideye Brown available, Saido Pocognoli Cresswell Berahino’s position may come under threat after four games without a goal although he is likely to Gardner Amalfitano start. Allardyce is missing Diafro Sakho while Noble and Mulumbu Kouyate Song are doubts although Kevin Nolan is an option in midfield.
Dorrans Noble West Ham’s price is shortening and odds of 3.00 with Bet Fred will likely become good value. Brunt Downing Bet Slip Sessegnon Valencia West Ham United to win £3.00 Berahino Carroll advised odds pays 3.00 Bet Fred £9.00
XIV Odds Compiler
Expected Goals
Betting Company ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total
Bookmakers 1.22 1.13 0.09 2.35 Spreads 1.30 1.20 0.10 2.50
Odds
Home Draw Away Margin
Average Odds 2.52 3.26 2.88 -5.1% True Odds 2.63 3.45 3.03 0.0% Chance 38.0% 29.0% 33.0% 0.0%
Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)
Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 1 - 1 13.0% 7.68 current opposition and is worked out from attack and defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 1 - 0 11.2% 8.91 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 0 - 1 10.4% 9.60 margin of victory. 0 - 0 9.0% 11.13 2 - 1 8.1% 12.29 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. 1 - 2 7.6% 13.24 See Glossary for Poisson Distribution.
West Bromwich Albion West Ham United Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up
Foster Adrian
Wisdom Lescott Dawson Pocognoli Jenkinson Tomkins Collins Cresswell
Noble Gardner Mulumbu Kouyate Amalfitano
Dorrans Sessegnon Brunt Downing
Berahino Valencia Carroll
XV STARTING XI Courtois Lloris Chelsea Ivanovic Chiriches versus Tottenham Hotspur
Cahill Fazio Wednesday 7:45 pm
Terry Vertonghen Again, Mourinho has a team free of injuries but Diego Costa will not feature due to suspension; Drogba and Remy will be the two players looking to Azpilicueta Davies fill that void. Schurrle is also available should Mourinho need him. Matic Eriksen Doubts for Tottenham include Adebayor, Capoue, Chiriches, Rose and Townsend. Pochettino has Kyle Fabregas Bentaleb Naughton, Kaboul and Chadli to choose from. Oscar Mason Hazard Lennon Bet Slip Ramires Kane No bet Drogba Soldado
XVI Odds Compiler
Expected Goals
Betting Company ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total
Bookmakers 1.98 0.76 1.22 2.74 Spreads 2.15 0.80 1.35 2.95
Odds
Home Draw Away Margin
Average Odds 1.40 4.65 8.05 -5.4% True Odds 1.44 5.07 9.40 0.0% Chance 69.6% 19.7% 10.6% 0.0%
Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)
Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 2 - 0 12.4% 8.06 current opposition and is worked out from attack and defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 1 - 0 12.1% 8.27 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 2 - 1 9.7% 10.34 margin of victory. 1 - 1 9.4% 10.60 3 - 0 8.5% 11.80 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. 3 - 1 6.6% 15.13 See Glossary for Poisson Distribution.
Chelsea Tottenham Hotspur Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up
Courtois Lloris
Ivanovic Cahill Terry Azpilicueta Chiriches Fazio Vertonghen Davies
Fabregas Matic Lennon Bentaleb Mason Eriksen
Ramires Oscar Hazard Kane
Drogba Soldado
XVII STARTING XI Pantilimon Hart Black Cats Vergini Zabaleta versus Manchester City
Brown Sagna Wednesday 7:45 pm
O’Shea Demichelis After the draw with Chelsea, Sunderland have not lost to Chelsea, Man City or Man Utd in their last meetings (home and away). Poyet is still missing Reveillere Clichy Giaccherini, Billy Jones and Van Aanholt. Gomez, Alvarez and Will Buckley are available but are likely Cattermole Milner to be benched. Dzeko, Silva, Negredo and Kolarov are out for City Larsson Toure but the main problem is in defence; Eliaquim Mangala is suspended after seeing red against Rodwell Lampard Southampton and Kompany is a major doubt with a hamstring problem. We could see Sagna or even Boyata partnering Demichellis. Johnson Fernandinho Bet Slip Wickham Nasri No bet Fletcher Aguero
XVIII Odds Compiler
Expected Goals
Betting Company ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total
Bookmakers 0.87 1.99 -1.12 2.86 Spreads 0.90 2.15 -1.25 3.05
Odds
Home Draw Away Margin
Average Odds 6.69 4.27 1.50 -5.0% True Odds 7.54 4.60 1.54 0.0% Chance 13.3% 21.7% 65.0% 0.0%
Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)
Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 0 - 2 11.2% 8.91 current opposition and is worked out from attack and defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 0 - 1 10.9% 9.14 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 1 - 2 9.9% 10.13 margin of victory. 1 - 1 9.6% 10.38 0 - 3 7.7% 13.04 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. 1 - 3 6.7% 14.82 See Glossary for Poisson Distribution.
Sunderland Manchester City Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up
Pantilimon Hart
Zabaleta Sagna Demichelis Clichy Vergini O’Shea Brown Reveillere
Milner Fernandinho Lampard Nasri Cattermole Toure Johnson Rodwell Larsson Wickham
Fletcher Aguero
XIX STARTING XI Martinez Forster Arsenal Chambers Clyne versus Southampton
Mertesacker Fonte Wednesday 7:45 pm
Koscielny Alderweireld Arsenal will now look to close the gap between themselves and Southampton to prove they are still good enough for top four. Arteta, Debuchy, Ozil, Gibbs Bertrand Walcott, Wilshere and Szczesny are all still out with doubts over Sanogo, Monreal and Gibbs. The pacey Welbeck Davis Hector Bellerin could come in at left back. Southampton are of course still missing Rodriguez Flamini Wanyama and Ward-Prowse but now key man Morgan Schneiderlin is out. Cork is likely to fill that gap and Ramsey Cork Shane Long will hope to dislodge Sadio Mane. Cazorla Mane Bet Slip Sanchez Tadic No bet Giroud Pelle
XX Odds Compiler
Expected Goals
Betting Company ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total
Bookmakers 1.59 0.92 0.67 2.51 Spreads 1.75 0.95 0.80 2.70
Odds
Home Draw Away Margin
Average Odds 1.78 3.63 4.66 -5.2% True Odds 1.84 3.87 5.07 0.0% Chance 54.5% 25.8% 19.7% 0.0%
Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)
Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 1 - 0 12.9% 7.74 current opposition and is worked out from attack and defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 1 - 1 11.9% 8.41 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 2 - 0 10.3% 9.73 margin of victory. 2 - 1 9.5% 10.58 0 - 0 8.1% 12.30 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. 0 - 1 7.5% 13.37 See Glossary for Poisson Distribution.
Arsenal Southampton Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up
Martinez Forster
Chambers Mertesacker Koscielny Gibbs Clyne Fonte Alderweireld Bertrand
Davis Wanyama Cork Mane Cazorla Flamini Ramsey Welbeck Tadic
Sanchez Giroud Pelle
XXI STARTING XI Howard McGregor Everton Coleman Chester versus Hull City
Distin Davies Wednesday 7:45 pm
Jagielka Dawson Naismith and McCarthy are major doubts for Everton with John Stones also still sidelined. Martinez has a few options in the attacking areas Baines Robertson with Steven Pienaar, Osman and McGeady available to play. Besic Livermore Manager Steve Bruce can chose from Sone Aluko and Hatem Ben-Arfa if he decides to make a change Barry Huddlestone due to the doubt over Roby Brady. Snodgrass and Hernandez remain unavailable along with the Mirallas Elmohamady suspended Ramirez. Barkley Brady Bet Slip Eto’o Diame No bet Lukaku Jelavic
XXII Odds Compiler
Expected Goals
Betting Company ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total
Bookmakers 1.83 0.77 1.06 2.60 Spreads 1.95 0.80 1.15 2.75
Odds
Home Draw Away Margin
Average Odds 1.51 4.10 6.79 -5.3% True Odds 1.55 4.42 7.72 0.0% Chance 64.4% 22.6% 12.9% 0.0%
Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)
Scoreline Chance Implied Odds The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s 1 - 0 13.6% 7.36 current opposition and is worked out from attack and defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers 2 - 0 12.4% 8.04 use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average 1 - 1 10.5% 9.55 margin of victory. 2 - 1 9.6% 10.44 3 - 0 7.6% 13.18 True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin. 0 - 0 7.4% 13.46 See Glossary for Poisson Distribution.
Everton Hull City Predicted Line-up Predicted Line-up
Howard McGregor
Coleman Distin Jagielka Baines Chester Davies Dawson
Besic Barry Elmohady Livermore Huddlestone Robertson
Mirallas Eto’o Barkley Diame Brady Lukaku Jelavic
XXIII Odds Ready Reckoner
Implied Implied Decimal Fraction Decimal Fraction Example: Decimal odds of 3.10 are equivalent to 2.1/1 Probability Probability (written as 21/10 in fractional odds). 1.2 1/5 83.3% 2.63 13/8 38.0% 1.22 2.9 82.0% 2.7 17/10 37.0% decimal odds (3.10) - 1 = fractional odds (2.1/1 or 21/10) 1.25 1/4 80.0% 2.75 7/4 36.4% 1.28 2/7 78.1% 2.8 9/5 35.7% Fractional odds to decimal odds: 1.3 3/10 76.9% 2.88 15/8 34.7% 1.33 1/3 75.2% 2.9 19/10 34.5% (21 ÷ 10) + 1 = 3.1 1.35 7/20 74.1% 3 2/1 33.3% 1.36 4/11 73.5% 3.1 21/10 32.3% Now you can convert this to the implied probability: 1.4 2/5 71.4% 3.13 85/40 31.9% 1 (100%) ÷ 3.1 = 0.3226 (32.26%) 1.44 4/9 69.4% 3.2 11/5 31.3% 1.45 9/20 69.0% 3.25 9/4 30.8% 1.47 40/85 68.0% 3.3 23/10 30.3% 1.5 1/2 66.7% 3.33 100/30 30.0% How much will I win? 1.53 8/15 65.4% 3.38 95/40 29.6% 1.57 4/7 63.7% 3.4 12/5 29.4% If you put £10.00 on odds of 8/13 (1.62), you would get 1.6 3/5 62.5% 3.5 5/2 28.6% £16.20 back including your stake, so a £6.20 profit. 1.62 8/13 61.7% 3.6 13/5 27.8% 1.63 5/8 61.3% 3.75 11/4 26.7% If you put £1.00 on odds of 15/2 (8.5), you would get 1.66 4/6 60.2% 3.8 14/5 26.3% £8.50 back, so a £7.50 profit. 1.7 7/10 58.8% 4 3/1 25.0% 1.72 8/11 58.1% 4.2 16/5 23.8% 1.8 4/5 55.6% 4.33 10/3 23.1% Staking Strategy 1.83 5/6 54.6% 4.5 7/2 22.2% 1.9 9/10 52.6% 4.6 18/5 21.7% The Odds Ready Reckoner is ideal as a simple but 1.91 10/11 52.4% 5 4/1 20.0% useful staking tool. If you want to win £100.00 from 1.95 20/21 51.3% 5.5 9/2 18.2% each bet you place, then all you need to do is place the 2 1/1 50.0% 6 5/1 16.7% percentage equivalent. E.G. If a team is 3/1 to win, you 2.05 21/20 48.8% 6.5 11/2 15.4% place £25.00 (as the odds represent 25%) and you will 2.1 11/10 47.6% 7 6/1 14.3% get £100.00 back. This is a better way to use your 2.2 6/5 45.5% 7.5 13/2 13.3% betting money as the amount you are risking is 2.25 5/4 44.4% 8 7/1 12.5% proportional to the chance of winning. 2.3 13/10 43.5% 8.5 15/2 11.8% 2.38 11/8 42.0% 9 8/1 11.1% 2.4 7/5 41.7% 9.5 17/2 10.5% 2.5 6/4 40.0% 10 9/1 10.0% 2.6 8/5 38.5% 11 10/1 9.1%
XXIV Odds Compiler Glossary Average Odds
The average odds from various bookmakers Worldwide.
Expected/Predicted Goals
A team’s estimated goals that it should score in the given game on average.
Implied Odds
An assumed chance, written as odds, that an event has of happening.
Mean Average
The mean average is the average which we use in basic maths. It is calculated by dividing the total number of something by how many events. For example, if Chelsea had conceded 1, 0, 0, 1, 1 and 2 goals in their last six games, the average goals they have conceded is 0.83.
5 (the total goals) divided by 6 (the number of matches).
Poisson Distribution
A statistical model that uses the mean to calculate the chance of absolute numbers. For example, if Manchester United’s average goals per game is 2.08 (their mean average), then the Poisson formula will calculate the chance of them scoring 0, 1, 2 and so on.
True Odds/Chance
These are the odds that do not have a bookmaker’s margin applied. After the bookmakers have incorporated their profit margin into the odds, they are lower than what the true chance reflects.
XXV Glossary
Ÿ ‘True Odds’ of every English Premiership game Ÿ Goal Expectancy of each team Ÿ Correct Score odds according to Poisson Distribution Ÿ ‘True Chance’ of each result Ÿ Likely line-ups and formations Ÿ Advised Bets and stakes
Odds Compiler
XXVI