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Report on Public Finances in EMU 2015 ISSN 2443-8014 (online) Report on Public Finances in EMU 2015 INSTITUTIONAL PAPER 014 | DECEMBER 2015 EUROPEAN ECONOMY Economic and Financial Affairs European Economy Institutional Papers are important reports and communications from the European Commission to the Council of the European Union and the European Parliament on the economy and economic developments. LEGAL NOTICE Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on its behalf may be held responsible for the use which may be made of the information contained in this publication, or for any errors which, despite careful preparation and checking, may appear. This paper exists in English only and can be downloaded from http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/. Europe Direct is a service to help you find answers to your questions about the European Union. Freephone number (*): 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 (*) The information given is free, as are most calls (though some operators, phone boxes or hotels may charge you). More information on the European Union is available on http://europa.eu. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2015 KC-BC-15-014-EN-N (online) KC-BC-15-014-EN-C (print) ISBN 978-92-79-48624-1 (online) ISBN 978-92-79-48623-4 (print) doi:10.2765/455670 (online) doi:10.2765/979849 (print) © European Union, 2015 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Report on Public Finances in EMU 2015 EUROPEAN ECONOMY Institutional Paper 014 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was prepared in the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs under the direction of Marco Buti, Director-General, Servaas Deroose, Deputy Director-General, Lucio Pench, Director for Fiscal Policy and Gilles Mourre, Head of Unit for Fiscal Policy and Surveillance. M. Salto was the editor of the report. Contributors were Gerrit Bethuyne (Chapter II.3), Joao Capella Ramos (Chapter I.2), Julia Lendvai (Part IV), Anton Mangov (Part III), Eloise Orseau (Chapters I.1, II.2 and II.4), Lucia Rodriguez-Munoz (Chapter III.2), Ralph Schmitt-Nilson (Chapter III.2), Ingrid Toming (Chapter II.5), Adrien Zakhartchouk (Chapter III.2 and Part IV). Information on the sensitivity of budgetary items to inflation for individual Member States and useful comments were provided by Frode Aasen, Emiel Afman, Wojciech Balcerowicz, Barbara Bernardi, Stefan Bohner, Ivan Csaba, Marek Dobrovolnik, Raffaele Fargnoli, Luis Garcia Lombardero, Maria Gerhardt, Michael Grams, Oskar Grevesmuhl, Valeska Gronert, Zoltan Gyenes, Renata Hruzova, Robert Kraemer, Juho Kostiainen, Jessica Larsson, Dimitri Lorenzani, Mart Maivali, Janis Malzubris, Dan Matei, Fabrizio Melcarne, Olivia Mollen, Marie Mulvihill, Christos Paschalides, Nicolas Philiponnet, Dominik Pripuzic, Vito Ernesto Reitano, Giedrius Sidlauskas, Peeter Soidla, Vladimir Solanic, Henk van Noten. Alessandra Cepparulo was responsible for statistical support, layout and IT support. The report benefitted from comments and suggestions by Johannes Bahrke, Nicolas Carnot, Stefan Ciobanu, Servaas Deroose, Jean-Paul Keppenne, Jakub Koniecki, Gilles Mourre, Lucio Pench and Alexander Schwan. Editing and communication support was provided by Johannes Bahrke, Nicolas Carpentiers, Sarka Novotna, Leila Fernandez Stembridge, Peter Koh, Iciar Rodriguez-Miranda and the DGT team co- ordinated by Nika Truhacev. Comments on the report would be gratefully received and should be sent, by mail or e-mail to the editor: Matteo Salto European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Directorate Fiscal Policy Unit Fiscal Policy and Surveillance Office CHAR 12/103 Rue de la Loi 170 B-1000 Brussels e-mail: [email protected] ii CONTENTS Communication from the Commission 1 Part I: Current developments and prospects 6 1. Current developments and prospects 6 1.1. Economic developments and perspective on consolidation 6 1.2. Assessment of short-term fiscal developments 7 1.3. Developments in debt 13 1.4. Composition of the adjustment 14 2. Implementation of fiscal surveillance 17 2.1. The Excessive Deficit Procedure 17 2.2. The European semester and the fiscal Country -Specific Recommendations 20 2.3. Closing the fiscal surveillance cycle in the euro area: Draft Budgetary Plans 21 A1. Assumptions underlying the assessment of fiscal stance 26 A1.1. Calculation of the indicative structural primary effort implied by sustainability needs 26 A1.2. Calculation of the indicative structural primary effort implied by stabilisation needs 26 A1.3. An alternative target for stabilisation needs 27 A2. Overview of EDP steps and Country-Specific fiscal Recommendations 29 Part II: Recent development in fiscal surveillance 35 1. Introduction 36 2. The functioning of the preventive arm of the SGP: an overview after the Communication on flexibility 38 2.1. The legal basis for the preventive arm 40 2.2. The Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) and the adjustment path towards it 41 2.3. Assessment of compliance under the preventive arm 44 3. One-offs measure –classification principles used in fiscal surveillance 52 3.1. Introduction 52 3.2. Guiding principles for the classification of one-off measures 52 3.3. An indicative list of ‘typical’ one-off measures, with justifications for the classification of each 56 3.4. Standard cases not to be considered one-offs 62 4. The communication on making the best use of flexibility within the Stability and Growth Pact 66 4.1. Taking into account structural reforms in the preventive arm: the structural reform clause 67 4.2. Taking investment into account in the preventive arm: the investment clause 72 4.3. The Ecofin Council of 8 December 2015 74 4.4. Consequences of the guidance given in the Commission communication on flexibility within the SGP for the corrective arm 74 5. Fiscal risks and contingent liabilities 76 5.1. Fiscal risk and the role of contingent liabilities 76 iii 5.2. New data requirements supporting fiscal surveillance in the eu 78 5.3. New dataset on contingent liabilities in Eurostat's database 78 5.4. Conclusion 86 Part III: Negative inflation surprises: how much of a bad thing 89 1. Introduction 90 2. Country-by-country analysis of the reaction of budget to the inflation surprise of 2014 92 2.1. Inflation elasticities in 2014 and 2015 according to Commission staff 93 2.2. Results on inflation sensitivity 96 2.3. Impact of inflation on interest expenditure 104 3. Impact of an inflation shock on fiscal effort under the SGP 111 3.1. The preventive arm 112 3.2. The corrective arm 113 3.3. The debt rule 115 3.4. Conclusion and implications for fiscal surveillance 116 A1. Survey 117 A2. Main country-specific features characterizing the impact of inflation on the budget balance 118 A3. Impact of an inflation shock on interest expenditure 121 A4. Analytical decomposition of the impact of an inflation shock on fiscal effort indicators 123 A4.1. Preventive arm of the SGP 123 A4.2. Corrective arm of the SGP 124 A4.3. The debt rule 127 Part IV: The EU's stylized fiscal reaction function 129 1. The EU's stylized fiscal reaction function 130 1.1. Introduction 130 1.2. EDP episodes: an overview 132 1.3. The determinants of the average effort 134 1.4. The determinants of the deadline 139 1.5. Conclusions 142 A1. Sample data and robustness checks 144 A1.1. List of EDP recommendations used in the analysis 144 A1.2. Description of the EDP sample 144 A1.3. Models of effort: Tobit Model 146 A1.4. Multinominal Logit regression 147 A1.5. Test of the proportional odds assumptions and alternative estimations 148 A1.6. Rubustness checks 149 Part V: Resources 151 1. Abbreviations and symbols used 152 2. Glossary 156 3. References 162 4. Useful Internet Links 165 iv LIST OF TABLES I.1.1. Budget balance in EU Member States (% of GDP) 8 I.1.2. Euro area-general government budget balance (% of GDP) 8 I.1.3. Composition of changes in the government debt ratio in EU Member States (% of GDP) 13 I.1.4. Government revenue and expenditure(% of GDP) 15 I.2.1a Overview of individual Commission Opinions on the DBPs – Member States currently under the preventive arm of the SGP 24 I.2.1b Overview of individual Commission opinions on the DBPs – Member States currently under the corrective arm of the SGP 25 I.A1.1. Total fiscal adjustment needed in 2016-2020 according to the S1 indicator ( as% of GDP) 26 I.A1.2. Change in the SPB implied by stabilisation and sustainability needs and in the Commission forecast (as % of GDP) 27 I.A1.3. Change in the SPB implied by an alternative computation of stabilisation needs (as % of GDP) 28 I.A2.1. Overview EDP steps – Euro area Member States 29 I.A2.2. Overview EDP steps – Non-euro area Member States 30 I.A2.3. Greece 31 I.A2.4. Overview of Council country-specific recommendations relating to fiscal policy 32 II.2.1. Matrix for determining the annual fiscal adjustment towards the MTO required under the preventive arm 43 II.2.2. Possible outcomes of the overall assessment under the preventive arm of the SGP 49 II.4.1. Overview of the clauses relevant to the preventive arm 68 II.5.1. Availability of indicators required under Council Directive 2011/85/EU in Eurostat's database (as at the end of 2015) 80 III.2.1.a Decomposition of expenditures with the ESA 2010 classification 94 III.2.1.b Decomposition of revenues with the ESA 2010 classification 94 IV.1.1. Main characteristics of the EDP recommendations 134 IV.1.2. Results of the estimation of Model 1 137 IV.1.3. Results of the estimation of Model 2 138 IV.1.4. Results of the estimation of Model 1' 140 IV.1.5.
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