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THE SECOND ASSESSMENT REPORT on the INFLUENCE of CLIMATE CHANGE on TROPICAL CYCLONES in the TYPHOON COMMITTEE REGION December 2012 ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee

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THE SECOND ASSESSMENT REPORT on the INFLUENCE of CLIMATE CHANGE on TROPICAL CYCLONES in the TYPHOON COMMITTEE REGION December 2012 ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee THE SECOND ASSESSMENT REPORT ON THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE TYPHOON COMMITTEE REGION DECEMBER 2012 ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee TC/TD-No. 0004 i ON THE COVER This photograph of Super Typhoon Bopha was taken on Sunday, Dec. 2, 2012 from the International Space Station, by Astronaut Ford as Bopha bore down on the Philippines with winds of 250 km/h. Credit: NASA ISS THE SECOND ASSESSMENT REPORT ON THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE TYPHOON COMMITTEE REGION ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Authors Ming Ying (Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA, China) Thomas R. Knutson (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, U.S.A) Tsz-Cheung Lee (Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China), Hirotaka Kamahori (Meteorological Research Institute – MRI/JMA, Tsukuba, Japan) Coordinator of the Report Wen-kun Leong (Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau, Macao, China) NOTE The designations employed in ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee (TC) publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion and whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of TC, ESCAP or WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Opinions expressed in TC publications are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of their agencies, their governments, TC, ESCAP or WMO. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by TC, ESCAP or WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised. TC/TD-No 0004 © ESCAP/WMO TYPHOON COMMITTEE, 2012 ISBN 978-99965-817-3-1 ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Secretariat Avenida 5 de Outubro, Coloane Macao, China Tel.: (+853) 88010531 • Fax: (+853) 88010530 E-mail: [email protected] Published in December 2012 Printed in Macao, China by Uniquer Network Printing Fty, Ltd. - December, 2012. The right of publication in print, electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee. Short extracts from Typhoon Committee publications may be reproduced without authorization, provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspondence and requests to publish, reproduce or translate these publication in part or in whole should be addressed to the Secretary of ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee. TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword .........................................................................................................................................................................ix Preface.............................................................................................................................................................................xi Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................................................................xiii Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................................................xv Chapter 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................1 Chapter 2. Tropical cyclone frequency, intensity, and precipitation changes .....................................................5 2.1 Tropical Cyclone Frequency ..............................................................................................................................5 2.2 Tropical Cyclone Intensities ...............................................................................................................................9 2.3 Intense Typhoon Frequency ...............................................................................................................................10 2.4 Integrated Storm Activity Metrics (ACE and PDI) .............................................................................................11 2.5 Tropical Cyclone Duration and Size .................................................................................................................12 2.6 Tropical Cyclone Precipitation ...........................................................................................................................13 2.7 Conclusions .........................................................................................................................................................13 References .................................................................................................................................................................14 Chapter 3. Tropical cyclone genesis, tracks, and duration ......................................................................................17 3.1 Brief description of climatology of TC genesis, tracks, and duration ...........................................................17 3.2 Trends of tropical cyclone genesis positions and potential ...........................................................................17 3.3 Trends in track pattern, moving speed/direction, and storm duration ..........................................................19 3.4 Conclusion ..........................................................................................................................................................22 References .................................................................................................................................................................22 Chapter 4. Tropical cyclone impacts in the Typhoon Committee region ................................................................23 4.1 A brief climatology of landfalling / affecting TCs .............................................................................................23 4.2 Regional impacts of TCs ...................................................................................................................................23 4.2.1 Frequency and intensity of landfalling/affecting TCs .............................................................................23 4.2.2 High winds .................................................................................................................................................29 4.2.3 Precipitation...............................................................................................................................................31 4.2.4 Casualties and economic losses .............................................................................................................33 4.3 Conclusions .........................................................................................................................................................35 4.3.1 Landfalling frequency ................................................................................................................................35 4.3.2 High winds and precipitation ....................................................................................................................35 4.3.3 Casualties and economic losses ..............................................................................................................36 References .................................................................................................................................................................36 Chapter 5. Future projections .....................................................................................................................................39 5.1 Frequency ..........................................................................................................................................................39 vii 5.2 Intensity ..............................................................................................................................................................41 5.3 Tropical Cyclone Precipitation rates ................................................................................................................41 5.4 Shifts in activity / track pattern and landfalling...............................................................................................41 5.5 Sea level rise and storm surge .........................................................................................................................42 5.6 Casualties and Economic Losses ....................................................................................................................43 5.7 Conclusions .........................................................................................................................................................43 References ................................................................................................................................................................51 Chapter 6. Uncertainties...............................................................................................................................................55 6.1 Uncertainties in datasets used for TC trend analyses....................................................................................55 6.2 Uncertainties in models and future projections of TC activity ......................................................................56 References .................................................................................................................................................................57
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