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Home , Josh Morgerman, Typhoon Bopha, Typhoon Haiyan, Typhoon Megi (2010), Typhoon Nancy (1961), Typhoon Nancy (1982)

Super HAIYAN crossed the with high intensity in November 2013 Dr. Susanne Haeseler, Christiana Lefebvre; updated: 13 December 2013

Introduction

Super , on the Philippines known as YOLANDA, crossed the islands between the 7th and 9th November 2013 (Fig. 1 to 3). It is classified as one of the strongest ever making . The surge, triggering widespread , and winds of hurricane force caused by HAIYAN wreaked havoc. In this connection, HAIYAN bears much resemblance to a typhoon in the year 1912, even with respect to the effects (see below).

Fig. 1: Infrared satellite image of typhoon HAIYAN being located across the Philippines, acquired on 8 November 2013, 09 UTC.

Up to 5 m high waves hit the coastal areas. Ships capsized, sank or ran aground. In , the capital of the province of , even three bigger cargo ships were washed on the land. Numerous towns were partly or totally destroyed. Trees were blown down. There were power outages and the communication was knocked out. Destroyed streets and airports hampered the rescue work and further help. Hundreds of thousands of people lost their homes. Although many people sought shelter, thousands lost their lives.

1 The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) of the Philippines provided the following information about the effects of the typhoon in the Situational Report No. 61 of 13 December 2013, 6:00 AM, which changed daily even 5 weeks after the event: ▪ 6 009 were reported dead (as of 13 December 2013, 6 AM) ▪ 27 022 injured (as of 13 December 2013, 6 AM) ▪ 1 779 are still missing (as of 13 December 2013, 6 AM) ▪ 3 424 190 families / 16 076 360 persons were affected ▪ out of the total affected, 838 811 families / 3 927 827 persons were displaced and served by evacuation centres ▪ 1 139 731 houses (550 904 totally / 588 827 partially) were damaged.

Fig. 2: Map of the Philippines.

Josh Morgerman from iCyclone.com, chasing HAIYAN at Tacloban City, has published an impressive video (12:34 minutes) of the events on 8 November 2013, showing the enormous strength of the typhoon.

Development and wind speeds

Typhoon HAIYAN formed out of a tropical depression over the north-western Pacific, east of the Philippines. Sea surface temperatures of about 30 °C and low vertical wind shear promoted the development to the typhoon.

Just before HAIYAN made landfall in the Philippines, the highest wind speeds were recorded. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the sustained winds reached 314 km/h with gusts up to 379 km/h.

The Philippine meteorological service PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration) noted that HAIYAN’s maximum sustained winds at its first landfall in Eastern on 8 November at about 4:40 AM were near 234 km/h. During

2 and after the crossing of the Philippines the wind decreased slightly, but it still blew with hurricane force.

Fig. 3: Track of typhoon HAIYAN alias YOLANDA in the area of the Philippines from 6 to 9 November 2013. [Source: PAGASA]

Table 1 shows the reports about sustained winds and gusts caused by HAIYAN as they were stated in the bulletins of PAGASA. Generally, these bulletins are published just every 3 to 5 hours, so it is assumed that the wind speeds in between were higher.

no. coordinates maximum sustained winds gusts up to near the storm centre 1 8.1°N, 135.5°E 195 km/h 230 km/h 2 8.4°N, 133.8°E 215 km/h 250 km/h 3 8.9°N, 132.1°E 215 km/h 250 km/h 4 9.7°N, 130.5°E 215 km/h 250 km/h 4a 9.9°N, 129.7°E 225 km/h 260 km/h 5 10.3°N, 128.3°E 225 km/h 260 km/h 5a 10.5°N, 127.2°E 225 km/h 260 km/h 6 10.8°N, 126.2°E 235 km/h 275 km/h 7 11.28°N, 124.1°E 215 km/h 250 km/h 8 11.4°N, 121.7°E 215 km/h 250 km/h 9 12.0°N, 119.9°E 195 km/h 230 km/h 10 12.4°N, 117.3°E 175 km/h 210 km/h 11 12.6°N, 116.0°E 175 km/h 210 km/h 12 13.6°N, 114.5°E 185 km/h 220 km/h Tab. 1: Data out of the bulletins of the Philippine meteorological service. Positions across the Philippines are marked in green. [Data source: PAGASA]

3 The track of HAIYAN is illustrated in Figure 4. The different colours mark different intensities according to the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Fig. 4: Track of HAIYAN from 3 to 11 November 2013. [Source: Unisys] The following colour code is used (category based on Saffir-Simpson scale):

type winds (km/h) line colour depression < 62 km/h green tropical storm 62-118 km/h yellow hurricane, category 1 119-153 km/h red hurricane, category 2 154-177 km/h light red hurricane, category 3 178-208 km/h magenta hurricane, category 4 209-249 km/h light magenta hurricane, category 5 > 249 km/h white

HAIYAN made landfall in the Philippines with intensity comparable to a category 5 hurricane. And the typhoon maintained that strength during almost the entire crossing of the island country.

The air pressure fell notably during the passage of the typhoon, especially at locations near the storm centre as at the weather station of Roxas in the north of the island of (Fig. 5). There has been a decrease of almost 28 hPa within 4 hours from 02 to 06 UTC to a value of 972.5 hPa on 8 November.

4 ROXAS 1020

1010

1000 990 980

970 air pressure air (hPa) 960 950 9 12 15 18 21 0 3 6 9 12 7 November 2013 8 November 2013

Fig. 5: Development of air pressure (hourly values in hPa) at the weather station of Roxas on the Philippine island of Panay from 7 November 2013, 09 UTC, to 8 November 2013, 12 UTC.

Though HAIYAN weakened slightly on its further way across the South Sea in the direction of northern , it kept the status of a typhoon. Not till 11 November 2013, when the centre of the storm was already located over land in the border area of Vietnam and China, HAIYAN was downgraded to a tropical storm and subsequently it further weakened.

Precipitation

Typhoon HAIYAN led to precipitation amounts of locally more than 200 mm (Tab. 2; Fig. 6).

24-hour station measured till precipitation total (mm) Butuan 66.6 8 Nov. 2013, 06 UTC Surigao 253 8 Nov. 2013, 06 UTC Maasin 163 8 Nov. 2013, 06 UTC Masbate 50 8 Nov. 2013, 06 UTC Legaspi 59 8 Nov. 2013, 18 UTC Roxas 94 9 Nov. 2013, 00 UTC San Jose 67.2 9 Nov. 2013, 00 UTC Alabat 92.6 9 Nov. 2013, 00 UTC Sangley Point 66.6 9 Nov. 2013, 00 UTC Tanay 96.6 9 Nov. 2013, 00 UTC Virac 55.6 9 Nov. 2013, 00 UTC Tayabas 93 9 Nov. 2013, 06 UTC Calapan 201 9 Nov. 2013, 06 UTC Daet 88 9 Nov. 2013, 06 UTC Baler Radar 58 9 Nov. 2013, 06 UTC Ambulong 59 9 Nov. 2013, 06 UTC Infanta 64 9 Nov. 2013, 06 UTC Casiguran 53 9 Nov. 2013, 06 UTC 90 9 Nov. 2013, 06 UTC Tab. 2: 24-hour precipitation totals at stations on the Philippines for different periods. [Data source: WMO]

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Fig. 6: 24-hour precipitation totals (in mm) at weather stations in the Philippines. Top: from 7 November 2013, 00 UTC to 8 November 2013, 00 UTC. Bottom: from 8 November 2013, 00 UTC to 9 November 2013, 00 UTC.

On 8 November 2013 between 06 and 12 UTC, i.e. within 6 hours, regionally more than 40 mm of precipitation were recorded (Fig. 7).

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Fig. 7: 6-hour precipitation totals (in mm) at weather stations in the Philippines from 8 November 2013, 06 to 12 UTC.

Climatological evaluation of HAIYAN

HAIYAN was characterised by exceptionally high wind speeds at landfall in the Philippines and by keeping of these hurricane force winds while crossing the island country. As mentioned above, HAIYAN reached its highest intensity with sustained winds of 314 km/h and peak gusts up to 379 km/h offshore, not far from the Philippine coast. The so far highest sustained wind speed for a typhoon in the northwest Pacific was recorded during in September 1961. It was estimated to be 95 m/s (342 km/h), but today it is recognized that the maximum sustained winds estimated for typhoons during the 1940s to 1960s were too strong (WMO). Typhoon NANCY, reaching a minimum central pressure of 888 hPa, weakened before making landfall, and while making landfall in southern it only had an intensity of category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Referring to the WMO, the so far maximum surface wind gust caused by a tropical was recorded during the OLIVIA with 113 m/s (407 km/h) on 10 April 1996 at Barrow Island / .

The strength of a tropical storm can not only be rated by the highest wind speeds but also by the lowest central pressure. The world record of the lowest measured air pressure for a tropical cyclone is held by with 870 hPa recorded on 12 October 1979 over the northwest Pacific. The central pressure of HAIYAN was significantly higher.

The last category 5 (Saffir-Simpson scale) typhoon, making landfall in the Philippines like HAIYAN, was BOPHA with 260 km/h on 3 December 2012. It made landfall in and left at least 1000 people dead. Prior to that, stroke on 17 October 2010 with maximum sustained (1-minute) winds of 288 km/h. During the previous 11 years from 1999 to 2009, no category 5 typhoon made landfall in the Philippines. Only in 2004, touched the eastern coast of Samar. In contrast, the northern islands of the Philippines were hit by category 5 typhoons in even 3 years during the second half of the 1990s (1995, 1996 and 1998). Also in the 1960s, an accumulation of such event was observed. Unlike HAIYAN, the typhoons being sighted since 1945 weakened while crossing land and were downgraded. Only HAIYAN kept an intensity of category 5. Of the typhoons crossing the

7 Philippines before 1945, the one of November 1912 was comparable with HAIYAN (see below).

By this single event, it cannot be stated to what extent the continuation of the high intensity is an indication of . See also Statement on Tropical and Climate Change.

In the long-term average, there are 8 to 9 tropical cyclones, crossing the Philippines per year or making landfall there. As shown in Figure 8 for the 59 years from 1948 to 2006, the number of 19 cyclones in 1993 was especially high. In contrast, only 4 cyclones were counted across the island country in each of the years 1955, 1958, 1992 and 1997.

Fig. 8: Annual frequency of tropical cyclones, making landfall in / crossing the Philippines from 1948 to 2006. [Source: PAGASA]

The typhoon of Samar, Leyte and Panay on 24th/25th November 1912

In November 1912, a typhoon hitting worldwide the headlines (Diola, 2013; Washington Herald, 1912) took a similar track across the Philippines as HAIYAN 101 years later (Fig. 4 and 9) and showed further analogies to HAIYAN.

Also at that time, warnings were issued prior to the arrival of the storm to enable the population to take precautions. The typhoon destroyed the telegraphic communication, so that at first only assumptions of the extent of the damage and the number of victims could be made. Due to the almost totally destroyed city of Tacloban and the enormous damage at Capiz (today Roxas), it was at first assumed that perhaps half the population of the two cities was dead or wounded, according to media reports 15 000 people. Similar to HAIYAN, survivors in 1912 urgently needed food, clothing and medical care.

A detailed report about the typhoon in 1912 was published in the Meteorological Bulletin for November 1912 by the Philippine Weather Bureau (see appendix). Besides data and analysis charts, it includes details on warnings and reports of observers at several weather stations. The following information is taken from this report.

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Fig. 9: Approximate track of the typhoon from 24 and 25 November 1912 as well as air pressure distribution (data in mm Hg) on 25 November 1912, 2 AM. [Source: Philippine Weather Bureau]

The typhoon of 24th/25th November 1912 implicated devastating floods. On the on hand, these floods were caused by a , on the other hand by heavy rains leading rivers to overflow their banks. In some towns, the water rose to a height of 1 to 2 m.

Bigger and smaller ships were damaged or destroyed, some sank, others grounded. The steamer “Mayo”, that sought shelter in a bay south of Samar, was carried about 274 m inland on top of a 9 m tidal wave, landing it among trees.

Many towns were totally destroyed or there were just some houses left, e.g. Pambujan, Salcedo and Tacloban.

Noteworthy is that the observers often mentioned the flashes occurring during the typhoon in their reports.

Barograph traces of several weather stations being located in the area of the storm centre are published in the above mentioned Bulletin (Fig. 10). At Capiz, today Roxas, the air pressure fell to 726 mm Hg (967.92 hPa) on 25 November 1912, a similar value as 2013 during HAIYAN (Fig. 5). At Tacloban, a minimum of only 693.08 mm Hg (924.03 hPa) was measured.

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Fig. 10: Development of the air pressure (in mm Hg) at the weather stations of Tacloban (left) and Capiz (above) on 24 and 25 November 1912. [Source: Philippine Weather Bureau]

Sources and further links

. Diola, C. (19 November 2013): 1912 reports on Tacloban storm ‘killing’ 15,000 resurface. http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2013/11/19/1258482/1912-reports-tacloban-storm-killing- 15000-resurface . Deutsche Schiffahrts-Zeitung (13. November 2013): Taifun sorgt für Chaos in philippinischen Gewässern. . DWD: Data archive. . DWD: Der Super Taifun „Haiyan“ – Eine Nachbetrachtung! Thema des Tages vom 09.11.2013. http://www.dwd.de . DWD: across the Philippines at the beginning of December 2012. . Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC): Tropical Storm 31W (Haiyan) Warning #32 Final Warning. Issued at 11/0300Z. TC Warning Text. http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp3113web.txt . Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC): Tropical Storm 31W (Haiyan) Warning #32 Final Warning. Issued at 11/0300Z. TC Warning Graphic. http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp3113.gif . Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC): Tropical Storm 31W (Haiyan) Warning #32 Final Warning. Issued at 11/0300Z. JMV 3.0 Data. http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp3113.tcw . Morgerman, J. (2013): Super Typhoon HAIYAN (YOLANDA) in Tacloban City, Philippines. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wrgrJwYdy8&feature=youtu.be . NASA, Earth Observatory: Super Typhoon Haiyan. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=82341

10 . NASA, Earth Observatory: Super Typhoon Haiyan Surges Across the Philippines. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=82348 . NASA: Haiyan (Northwestern ). Nov. 8, 2013. http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/haiyan-northwestern-pacific-ocean/#.Unz8pShWJ8M . National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, Vietnam: Haiyan makes landfall, weakens into depression. http://www.nchmf.gov.vn/web/en-US/71/103/19921/Default.aspx . National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), Philippines. http://www.ndrrmc.gov.ph/ . National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), Philippines: Severe Weather Bulletin for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN). http://www.ndrrmc.gov.ph/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1124 . National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), Philippines: SitRep No. 61 Effects of Typhoon “YOLANDA” (HAIYAN). 13 Dezember 2013, 06:00 AM. http://www.ndrrmc.gov.ph/attachments/article/1125/NDRRMC%20Update%20re%20Sit%2 0Rep%2061%20Effects%20of%20%20TY%20%20YOLANDA.pdf . NOAA, Hurricane Research Division: Frequently Asked Questions – How might global warming change hurricane intensity, frequency, and rainfall? http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G3.html . Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA): Tropical Cyclone Update. http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml . Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA): Tropical Cyclone Statistics. http://kidlat.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/cab/cab.htm . Philippine Weather Bureau: The Typhoon of Samar, Leyte and Panay, November 24 and 25, 1912. Meteorological Bulletin for November 1912, 391-402. . Unisys: Hurricane/Tropical Data. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/index.php . Unisys: 2013 Hurricane/Tropical Data for Western Pacific. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_pacific/2013/index.php . The Washington Herald (30 November 1912): 15,000 die in Philippine Storm. . World Meteorological Organization (WMO): Severe Weather Information Centre. http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/ . World Meteorological Organization (WMO): Statement on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change. http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/tmrp/documents/iwtc_statement.pdf . World Meteorological Organization (WMO): Tropical Cyclone: Most Intense Tropical Cyclone (by Maximum Sustained Surface Wind). http://wmo.asu.edu/tropical-cyclone-most-intense-tropical-cyclone-maximum-sustained- surface-wind . World Meteorological Organization (WMO): World: Maximum Surface Wind Gust (Tropical Cyclone). http://wmo.asu.edu/world-maximum-surface-wind-gust-TC

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APPENDIX

Philippine Weather Bureau: The Typhoon of Samar, Leyte and Panay, November 24 and 25, 1912. Meteorological Bulletin for November 1912, 391-402.

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