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Final Report (Posted 7/17) FINAL REPORT Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation on Southwestern DoD Facilities SERDP Project RC-2232 FEBRUARY 2017 Gregg Garfin University of Arizona Distribution Statement A Page Intentionally Left Blank Form Approved REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing this collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden to Department of Defense, Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (0704-0188), 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to any penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 03/03/2017 Final Technical Report 05/11/2012 to 05/11/2017 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation on Southwestern DoD Facilities W912HQ-12-C-0060 5b. GRANT NUMBER N/A 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER W912HQ 1 1 1 2 6. AUTHOR(S) Garfin. G.M. , Falk, D.A., , Jacobs, K. , O’Connor, C.O. , Haverland, 5d. PROJECT NUMBER A.C.1, Weiss, J.L.1, Overpeck, J.T.1,Haworth, A.3, and Baglee, A.3 12C 5e. TASK NUMBER 1 University of Arizona – Tucson, AZ 0060 2 USDA Forest Service – Missoula, MT 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 3 Acclimatise - Cardiff -UK RC-2232 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER University of Arizona 1064 E Lowell Street, N419 PO Box 210137 Tucson, AZ 85721 9. SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program DOD - SERDP 4800 Mark Center Drive, Suite 17D08 Alexandria, VA 22350-3605 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES N/A 14. ABSTRACT This project engaged managers across diverse DoD operations in the Southwest. Project objectives were to: develop and pilot-test approaches for climate risk assessment; evaluate climate adaptation best practices, and support adaptation planning compatible with DoD decision-making. We interacted with personnel from the Army, Air Force, Marines, and Navy, in diverse settings. We conducted case studies to test a climate change risk assessment framework and strategies for adoption of climate adaptation measures commensurate with mission success priorities. Immediate priorities dominate decisions and resource allocation, yet climate change requires planning for seasons-to-decades. There is rarely designated funding for climate adaptation; thus, managers must divert scarce funds from competing priorities. Our approach emphasizes “mainstreaming” climate adaptation, by linking it to immediate challenges facing Base management, including wildfires, flooding, and sea level rise. Linking current challenges to projected risks catalyzes more active management, and increases chances for integrating climate change risks into decision priorities. 15. SUBJECT TERMS adaptation, baseline sensitivity, climate change, climate exposure, climate services, extreme events, fire risk, severity, risk assessment, risk management, scenario based decision support, stakeholder engagement, training 17. LIMITATION 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF:N/A OF ABSTRACT OF PAGES Dr. Gregg Garfin a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE 435 pages 19b. TELEPHONE NUMBER (include area code) 520-626-4732 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 Page Intentionally Left Blank This report was prepared under contract to the Department of Defense Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP). The publication of this report does not indicate endorsement by the Department of Defense, nor should the contents be construed as reflecting the official policy or position of the Department of Defense. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the Department of Defense. Page Intentionally Left Blank Authors Gregg M. Garfin Donald A. Falk Katharine Jacobs Arin Haverland Jeremy L. Weiss Jonathan T. Overpeck University of Arizona – Tucson, AZ Christopher D. O’Connor USDA Forest Service – Missoula, MT Anna Haworth Alastair Baglee Acclimatise, United Kingdom Page Intentionally Left Blank Abstract Objectives Climate change is understood as a serious global phenomenon that will affect all aspects of national and global economy, society, and security. To address needs related to climate change challenges, and with support from SERDP, this project aimed to: (1) develop and pilot-test approaches for climate risk assessment; (2) evaluate climate adaptation best practices in a series of case studies, and (3) evaluate approaches and needs for climate services to support adaptation planning compatible with DoD decision-making needs and processes. Technical Approach We interacted with DoD personnel in risk assessment workshops and case-study pilots at four installations in the Southwest, through participatory processes. We also conducted interviews and convened workshops with personnel, in order to identify gaps, needs, and opportunities for infusing climate adaptation thinking and practice into DoD operations, and to evaluate promising approaches to climate services, that mesh with military culture, leadership, and practice. We explored current obstacles to adopting climate adaptation measures and possible solutions to overcome these obstacles. Climate risk assessments and adaptation case studies were conducted at Fort Huachuca (FTH; U.S. Army), Barry M. Goldwater Range East (BMGR-E; U.S. Air Force), Barry M. Goldwater Range West (BMGR-W; U.S. Marines), and Naval Base Coronado (NBC; U.S. Navy). We explored in each case the influence of top-down DoD policy directives and guidance on day-to- day Base management, and what factors might determine if a given installation is likely to be an “early adopter”, or to focus more on here-and-now priorities to the exclusion of long term adaptation planning. We conducted detailed case studies, at FTH and NBC to test hypotheses about strategies for encouraging adoption of climate adaptation measures in the context of Base management priorities and resources. To fulfill Project objectives, we designed and implemented activities as follows: 1. We tested methods to assess current and future climate-related impacts and risks, including the data, information, and climate services support needed by DoD personnel, to assess climate change risks and vulnerabilities. 2. To demonstrate proof of concept for supporting DoD decision-makers, we tested readily accessible and publicly available data and decision tools to generate information on climate-driven wildfire and post-fire flood risks and uncertainties. 3. We developed installation-focused pilot projects to assess a participatory approach to climate change risk assessment, and to co-develop, with installation personnel, strategies that are resilient in light of uncertainties. We convened a workshop of related SERDP climate change projects, and synthesized expert advice on risk assessment, decision-support, uncertainties, and the climate services needed to support decisions. 4. We developed a science-based decision support process, which included the co- development of strategies, along with installation resource management personnel, for management of wildland fire risk in the face of uncertainties. We assessed approaches used by analogous entities, such as international departments of defense, heavy i industries, and multi-faceted state and city governments, and summarized best practices currently being adopted by this array of climate-sensitive entities. Results. Assessing current and future climate-related impacts and risks. In studies at all four bases we found that integrating climate change risks into the current decision matrix, by linking projected risks to current or past impacts, creates active engagement by focusing on here-and- now challenges. Addressing specific current issues builds capacity and willingness to incorporate climate change thinking into future planning and risk management processes and builds interest in science-based solutions. Key issues addressed included potential impacts of sea level rise, wildfire, flooding, invasive species, and impacts of climate variability. Adoption of publicly available data and decision tools and methods. Bases have some capacity to integrate climate-related information, but they have limited resources to undertake the studies necessary to assess risk comprehensively. Our project team provided summaries of relevant information to military and civilian Base personnel and management for climate variables, wildfire, flooding, and other near-term risks. At FTH we developed a partnership with the Environment and Natural Resources Division group to assess how fire management
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