Karachi Transportation Improvement Project Final Report
Chapter 4 Planning Frameworks
4.1 Introduction
In this chapter, various basic future indices are estimated, as fundamental factors, both for urban transport planning and for future traffic demand forecasts. These future indices consist of major three (3) items such as “Socio-economic frames”, “Future land use” and “Financial framework”.
4.1.1 Socio-economic frameworks
Population, labour force, growth rate of GRDP, car/motorcycle ownership, school enrollment, etc are forecasted as the fundamental factors for future traffic demands estimation. At first, these variables of Karachi were estimated as the control totals and further major factors be broke down into traffic zone level for traffic demand modeling.
4.1.2 Future land use
Future land use conceptual plan is prepared in order to plan basic transport networks both for roads and mass transit system to cope with future urban development & economic activities. Moreover, detailed population distribution by traffic zone is also estimated for the purpose of traffic demand analysis, both of traffic generation and attraction.
4.1.3 Financial framework
The budget constraints for development in urban transport sector in Karachi were estimated based on the past trends in the expenditures in the transport sector by CDGK, GOS, and GOP.
In addition to the above three, including traffic demands that are analyzed in other chapter. Four items consist of major planning frameworks for urban transport plan as shown in Figure 4-1-1.
Future Socioeconomic Frames
Urban Urban TransportTransport Demand Demands Land Use Roads & Development (Spatial) Mass Transit Budget Structure Network
Source: Prepared by the JICA Study Team Figure 4-1-1 Planning Frameworks
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Based on the year 2010 as present, main target years of 2020 and 2030 are set for short-term and long-term plans, and moreover year 2025 is also estimated as supplemental medium-term, if necessary. Most of socio-economic frames are estimated both by “Town/Cantonment” and by “Traffic zone” in order to analyze various traffic demands both at present and in the future.
Source: Prepared by the JICA Study Team Figure 4-1-2 Target Years for Planning
4.2 Socio-economic Framework
4.2.1 Total Population in Karachi
Population in Karachi City until 2020 was estimated in KSDP 2020. The Average Annual Growth Rate (AAGR) after 2005 decreases by 0.5% every five years in the estimation by KSDP 2020. The AAGR until 2030 was assumed by the following three patterns (Refer to Table 4-2-1 and Figure 4-2-1). Alternative A: AAGR (3.5%) until 2020 continues after 2020. Alternative B: The trend until 2020 continues and AAGR decreases by 0.5% every five years. Alternative C: AAGR indicates a half of Alternative B. The relation between the population accumulation and AAGR of other populated cities all over the world was plotted in Figure 4-2-2 to examine which pattern Karachi City took among those alternatives A to C, and it was compared with the tendency after 2005 of Karachi City (Refer to Figure 4-2-2). Until 2020, the population of Karachi City is estimated to move by the highest growth rate all over the world. And after 2020, only alternative C is located within the range of growth in other cities. The other A and B are the unexampled growth rates in any other cities. Therefore, the Alternative C is taken for the growth rate of Karachi population after 2020 in this study.
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Table 4-2-1 Annual Average Growth Rate (million) (AAGR) 40 38.9 Alternative A Alternative B Alternative A Alternative B Alternative C Alternative C 36.1 35 Year KSDP2020 Rate in 2020 Trend of Half rate of 32.7 continues KSDP2020 Alternative B 31.9 31.6 2005 5.0% 30 29.7 2010 4.5% 27.6 2015 4.0% 25 23.1 2020 3.5% 2025 3.5% 3.0% 1.5% 20 18.9 2030 3.5% 2.5% 1.25%
Source: JICA Study Team/ KSDP 2020 15 15.1
10 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Source: JICA Study Team Figure 4-2-1 Estimation of Future Population after 2020
Pupulation and Increase Ratio of 1950-2005
Alternative A 6.0% Alternative B Karachi Alternative C 5.0% Delhi Istanbul KSDP2020 Seoul Sao Paulo A 4.0% Hong Kong Jakarta Manila Mexico City 3.0% Munbai B Tokyo 2.0% C
Increase Ratio (2005/1950) Ratio Increase 1.0% New York
0.0% 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
Population (Thousands) Source: Tableaux de l'Économie Française
Figure 4-2-2 Population and Growth Ratio of Other Cities in the World
Comment by KMTC The result of this projection was explained in several meetings during the study period such as an expert meeting on 27th October, 2012, 2nd Technical Committees, and 2nd Joint Steering Committees (see Appendix-1). The JICA Study Team considers the projection is proper for the purpose of the transportation planning, but KMTC made a comment on the projection as: Population projections that have been carried out in the study seem to be unrealistic in case of Karachi. The reason being a latest report published by ‘National Sustainable Development
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Strategy’ on the topic of ‘Pathway to a sustainable Pakistan – May 2012’ suggests that almost 60% of the population of Pakistan is below 30 years. This leads to the fact that all these people would get married in near future and would give birth to a new generation and hence the population would be significantly increased. Now comparing the trend of population increase in Karachi with Japan is unrealistic as the major chunk of population of Japan is above 60% and hence there are more chances of the fact that the increase would get stagnant by the year 2030, however in case of Karachi this approach could be unrealistic. Note that the JICA Study Team applied the same projection as KSDP 2020, which was the official document of CDGK, after the review of the projection. Therefore, the projections in KSDP 2020 and this study are the same up to 2020. Figure 4-2-1 shows that the population projection after 2020 is not underestimate. Regarding population of the young generation, Figure 4-2-3 shows that the population of the age group 0-5 years old is smaller than the group of 6-10 years old.
4.2.2 Economically Active Population
As shown in the figure below, the economically active population that becomes the base of employment is estimated by using such three factors as total population, distribution ratio by age group and labour force participation rate by age. Step 1: The population distribution ratio by age group until 2030 is estimated based on the both ratios of Karachi City at 1998 (Refer to Figure 4-2-3) and of Pakistan from 1998 to 2030 (Refer to Figure 4-2-4).
Step 2: The population by age group of Karachi City in the future is calculated by multiplying Karachi future population by distribution ratio by age group estimated in Step 1.
Step 3: The number of employment in the future is calculated by multiplying this population by age group from Step 2 by labour force participation rate by age as shown in Figure 4-2-5
Total Population In Karachi
Distribution Ratio Distribution Ratio by Age Group in By Age Group in Pakistan from 1998 Karachi at 1998 to 2030 (Figure 4-2-3) (Figure 4-2-4)
Population By Age Group
Labor Force Participation Rates By Age in Pakistan (Figure 4-2-5,6)
Economically Active Population
(Table 4-2-2)
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(1) Distribution ratio by age group in Karachi at 1998
According to the 1998 population census, about 80% of the overall population consisted of age groups at less than 25, and it was found that Karachi was remarkably a low-aged city.
Both Age Group Male Female Sexes Population Pyramid of Karachi 00 -- 04 15.0% 17.3% 16.0% 05 -- 09 15.8% 18.1% 16.9% Male Female 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 10 -- 14 15.7% 17.6% 16.6% 75 & Above 15 -- 20 14.9% 16.1% 15.4% 70 -- 74 20 -- 24 13.9% 13.6% 13.7% 65 -- 69 60 -- 64 25 -- 29 11.8% 11.0% 11.4% 55 -- 59 30 -- 34 10.1% 9.4% 9.8% 50 -- 54 35 -- 39 7.8% 7.6% 7.7% 45 -- 49 40 -- 44 7.1% 6.8% 7.0% 40 -- 44 45 -- 49 5.3% 5.0% 5.2% 35 -- 39 50 -- 54 4.5% 4.3% 4.4% 30 -- 34 25 -- 29 55 -- 59 3.0% 2.8% 2.9% 20 -- 24 60 -- 64 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 15 -- 20 65 -- 69 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 10 -- 14 70 -- 74 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 05 -- 09 75 & Above 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 00 -- 04 Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0
Source: 1998 CENSUS Figure 4-2-3 Population Pyramid of Karachi
(2) Composition by age group in Pakistan from 1998 to 2030
Figure 4-2-4 shows the projection of the composition of population by age group in Pakistan from 1998 to 2030. This is the estimation by Pakistan Statistics Bureau. The population of age group of ten years old or less was projected to decrease, while the population of age group of 25 to 59 years old was projected to increase. That means that potential employment will increase in the future.
Population by Age Groups 100% 3.5% 3.8% 4.1% 4.5% 5.0% 5.8% 90% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.4% 2.7% 3.1%
80% 31.7% 37.6% 39.4% 70% 42.2% 44.4% 46.2%
60% 9.0% 9.8% 50% 10.4% 10.3% 9.5% 8.8% 11.3% 40% 10.5% 8.7% 13.0% 9.5% 9.3% 9.2% 30% 11.5% 65 & Above 10.5% 10.1% 9.8% 60 - 64 9.5% 20% 25 - 59 30.5% 23.9% 23.0% 21.7% 20 - 24 10% 20.0% 17.6% 15 - 19 0% 10 - 14 1998 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Below 10 Year
Source: Planning & Development Division, June 2010
Figure 4-2-4 Population by Age Groups in Pakistan
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(3) Labour force participation rates
The labour force ratio (labour force / population) exceeds 50% in the age group of 20-59 years old as shown in Figure 4-2-5. The labour participation rate of the woman is rather smaller than that of the man as shown in Figure 4-2-6. If the women’s participation in society advances in the future, the number of employees will rapidly increase, and it becomes one of the factors of the increase in traffic demand.
70.0 63.6 62.1 62.4 62.6 61.1 57.0 56.6 60.0 54.6
50.0 43.8 40.0 % 38.7 30.0 22.6 20.0 15.3 10.0
0.0 10 -- 14 15 -- 20 20 -- 24 25 -- 29 30 -- 34 35 -- 39 40 -- 44 45 -- 49 50 -- 54 55 -- 59 60 -- 64 65 & Over Age Group
Source: Labour Force Survey 2008-2009
Figure 4-2-5 Labour Force Participation Rates (Both Sexes)
Male Female 97.0 98.5 98.7 99.4 98.3 97.1 100.0 94.1 84.4 80.0 68.7 60.0 56.7 % 35.8 40.0
18.6 20.5 21.3 22.4 21.5 20.7 19.7 20.5 15.2 20.0 10.7 14.2 8.9 4.3 0.0 10 -- 14 15 -- 20 20 -- 24 25 -- 29 30 -- 34 35 -- 39 40 -- 44 45 -- 49 50 -- 54 55 -- 59 60 -- 64 65 & Over Age Group
Source: Labour Force Survey 2008-2009
Figure 4-2-6 Labour Force Participation Rates by Age and Sex
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(4) Economically active population
Table 4-2-2 shows the result of the estimation of economically active population in Karachi. The labour force was estimated to increase from about 7.4 million in 2010 to about 13.7 million in 2030, and the participation ratio was estimated to increase from 39.2% to 43.3%. Table 4-2-2 Projection of Economically Active Population in Karachi
Age Group Econ. Active/ Year Below 10 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-59 60-64 65 & Above Total Population
3,604,834 2,051,982 2,347,764 2,088,955 7,986,094 332,754 517,617 18,930,000 2010 39.2% - 314,770 907,650 1,141,410 4,791,440 145,810 116,930 7,418,010 4,215,702 2,267,930 2,637,632 2,682,719 10,212,368 428,333 676,316 23,130,000 2015 40.2% - 349,280 1,019,710 1,465,840 6,123,210 187,700 152,780 9,299,000 4,738,921 2,623,810 2,837,998 2,945,092 12,958,406 562,245 883,528 27,550,000 2020 41.1% - 402,490 1,097,170 1,609,200 7,775,150 246,380 199,590 11,330,000 4,687,829 2,732,171 2,991,008 2,904,729 14,638,682 661,473 1,064,109 29,680,000 2025 42.1% - 419,110 1,156,320 1,587,140 8,801,240 289,860 240,380 12,494,000 4,367,447 2,809,826 3,115,242 3,054,159 16,156,499 794,081 1,282,747 31,580,000 2030 43.3% - 431,030 1,204,350 1,668,790 9,747,400 347,970 289,770 13,689,000 Note: Upper = Population, Lower = Labour Force Participation Source: Estimated by JICA Study Team
Table 4-2-3 shows the comparison between the estimation and the result of KMP 2020. The participation rate in the estimation increases every year, while its rate in KMP 2020 decreases every year. The participation rate should increase considering the economic growth in the future. Therefore, the JICA Study Team’s estimation is more appropriate than that of KMP 2020. Moreover, it was assumed that the number of employments is equivalent between the working place base and the residence base in this study. Table 4-2-3 Comparison between KMP2020 and JICA Study Team Result of Both Studies KMP2020 Year Trend Predicted JICA Study Employment Employment Team 2010 7,469,683 9,018,102 7,418,010 2015 8,342,307 10,326,734 9,299,000 2020 9,408,335 11,576,369 11,330,000 2025 - - 12,494,000 2030 - - 13,689,000
Participation Rate of Both Estimations KMP2020 Year Population Trend Predicted JICA Study Employment Employment Team 2010 18,930,000 39.5% 47.6% 39.2% 2015 23,130,000 36.1% 44.6% 40.2% 2020 27,550,000 34.2% 42.0% 41.1% 2030 31,580,000 - - 43.3% Note: KMP 2020 = Karachi Master Plan -2020, Transport Sector Report Source: KMP 2020, Estimation in KTIP
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4.2.3 Growth of GRDP in Karachi
As there are no sufficient data on Gross Regional Domestic Products of Karachi, but Pakistan GDP, only growth rate tendency was estimated for the demand forecast. Table 4-2-4 shows annul growth rates of GDP of Pakistan in the last 10 years. They fluctuate widely from -3.7% to 15.5% by sector. In accordance to discussions with chief economist of Planning & Development, Government of Sindh, it is concluded that Pakistan GDP growth rate and Karachi GRDP growth rate might be considered as same based on the following reasons: About 99% of Pakistan agriculture activities are outside of Karachi, More than 70% of small and medium industries are located outside of Karachi, More than 70% of service industries are operating in Karachi, Both agriculture and manufacturing contribute 25% and service sector 50% to total GDP.
Average annual growth rates of GDP were calculated using the time series data from 2000-01 to 2009-10 for the following two scenarios. A) Simple average of 10 years, B) 8 years’ average excluding both maximum and minimum data.
The average growth rate of (A) was calculated as 2.5% while that of (B) was calculated as 4.7%. Table 4-2-4 Trends of GDP Growth(%), Pakistan
Average Average 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09R 2009-10P (10 years) (8 years) Gross Domestic Product 2.03.04.77.59.05.86.83.71.24.1 2.5 4.7 - Agliculture -2.2 0.1 4.1 2.4 6.5 6.3 4.1 1.0 4.0 2.0 1.5 2.2 - Manufacturing 9.3 4.5 6.9 14.0 15.5 8.7 8.3 4.8 -3.7 5.2 3.9 7.7 - Commodity Producing Sector 0.8 1.4 4.3 9.2 9.5 5.1 6.6 1.3 0.8 3.6 2.2 4.0 - Service Sector 3.14.85.25.98.56.57.06.01.64.6 2.8 5.4 Source: Economic Survey 2009-10
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4.2.4 Car Ownership
(1) Car ownership of Karachi in last 20 years
Figure 4-2-7 shows the car ownership in Karachi from 1988 to 2010 (left chart: passenger cars, right chart: motorcycle). After 2003, car ownership in Karachi demonstrates an upward trend. Especially the growth rate of motorcycle is remarkably high.
Vehicle Registration and Ownership Motorcycle Registration and Ownership 1,000,000 60.0 1,200,000 60.0 900,000 50.0 800,000 1,000,000 50.0 700,000 40.0 600,000 800,000 40.0 500,000 30.0 600,000 30.0 400,000 20.0 300,000 400,000 20.0
200,000 No.Motorcycle of 10.0 No. of Passenger Car Passenger of No. Ownership (/1,000pers) Ownership 100,000 200,000 10.0 (/1,000pers) Ownership 0 0.0 0 0.0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year Year
No. fo Passenger cars Ownership No. fo Motorcycle Ownership
Source: Prepared by the JICA Study Team based on data from Excise and Taxation Department, CDGK Figure 4-2-7 Car Ownership in Karachi from 1988 to 2010
(2) Estimation of Number of Vehicles
The registered numbers of private cars and motorcycles in the future were forecasted based on the linear regression method with the actual number from 1988 to 2010. The registered numbers of private cars and motorcycles in 2030 were estimated at 2.65 million and 3.642 million, respectively as shown in Table 4-2-5. The registered number of cars and motorcycles per 1,000 people in 2030 were estimated at 83.9 and 115.3, respectively, which would be 1.71 and 2.02 times the number in 2010.
Table 4-2-5 Future Car / Motorcycle Ownership
Car Motorcycle Ownership Ownership Registered Number (veh./1,000 Registered Number (veh./1,000 population) population) 2010 939,000 49.7 896,000 47.4 2020 1,665,000 60.0 2,021,000 72.8 2025 2,125,000 71.6 2,769,000 93.3 2030 2,650,000 83.9 3,642,000 115.3 Source: JICA Study Team Estimation
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Source: Estimated by the JICA Study Team Figure 4-2-8 Registered Number of Vehicles and Motorcycles
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4.2.5 Number of Students
The number of schools and students of public primary and secondary schools were 3,593 schools and 575,950 enrollments in 2009-10 as shown in Table 4-2-6. Those of private schools were 3,822 schools and 963,258 enrollments in 2000 as shown in Table 4-2-7. The latest data of private schools after 2000 was not available. Although the data of private schools is older, it can be said that the number of schools and enrollments of private sector are larger than the public sector. The number of enrollments in 2010 was estimated at 1,593,700 in primary schools and at 679,400 in secondary school, respectively, assuming the annual growth rates of 5.8% and 5.2%, respectively as shown in Table 4-2-8.
Table 4-2-6 Number of School and Enrollment by SEMIS (2009-10) No. Town No. of Schools Enrollment Primary Secondary Higher Primary Secondary Higher 1 Baldia 89 18 0 13,292 4,063 0 2 Bin Qasim 160 38 1 16,111 5,407 505 3 Gadap 409 66 4 39,157 6,711 2,256 4 Gulberg 98 38 4 12,853 6,783 1,724 5 Gulshan 88 32 1 13,528 7,041 618 6 Jamshed 172 76 5 24,699 16,835 1,736 7 Keamari 155 36 0 18,736 5,459 0 8 Korangi 107 43 2 27,141 19,167 1,005 9 Landhi 161 41 2 22,243 11,622 1,356 10 Liaquatabad 153 81 4 26,523 17,898 3,026 11 Lyari 209 49 1 25,466 12,146 444 12 Malir 148 53 0 21,257 15,528 0 13 New Karachi 174 48 0 31,697 20,229 0 14 North Nazimabad 86 33 1 13,056 5,355 1,752 15 Orangi 139 28 2 22,176 9,343 1,279 16 Saddar 193 76 4 21,586 10,338 809 17 Sha Faisal 99 38 1 12,925 10,769 810 18 SITE 123 36 2 20,042 8,768 600 TOTAL 2,763 830 34 382,488 193,462 17,920 Source: Sindh Educational Bureau
Table 4-2-7 Private Educational Institutions and Enrollment (2000) No. of Schools Enrollment Primary Secondary Total Primary Secondary Total 1,419 2,403 3,822 676,589 286,669 963,258 Source: Year Book 2009, Federal Bureau of Statistics
Table 4-2-8 Number of Students in Karachi Public School Private School Total Primary Secondary Primary Secondary Primary Secondary 2000 676,589 286,669 2009 382,488 193,462 2010 404,672 203,522 1,188,999 475,925 1,593,672 679,447 Remarks 5.8%/year 5.2%/year 5.8%/year 5.2%/year Source: Estimation of JICA Study Team
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Table 4-2-9 shows the estimation of the number of enrollments in 2010 based on the statistics data and the available information. It was estimated that the number of enrollments was 2,545,000 in 2010, which was 38% of the school age population. The percentages were 86.0% in primary schools, 31.3% in secondary schools, 18.3% in tertiary schools, and 5.8% in universities. Although the percentage of enrollments to the school age population is low for all stages, it will increase in the future. The future percentage of enrollments to the school age population in each stage of education was estimated as shown in Table 4-2-10. For example, the percentage will improve from 31.3% in 2010 to 80.0% in 2030. For university, it will double from 6.5% to 13.0%. School age population was calculated by the total population of the city and the percentage of school age. The number of enrollments in 2030 was estimated by multiplying the school age population and the percentage of enrollments. Table 4-2-9 Estimation of Enrollments in 2010 Percentage of No. of School Percentage of Enrollments School Age Age Enrollments Primary 9.8% 1,854,100 86.0% 1,593,700 Secondary 11.5% 2,172,400 31.3% 679,400 Tertiary 5.0% 940,000 18.3% 172,500 University 8.1% 1,526,000 6.5% 99,200 Total 35.4% 6,691,100 38.0% 2,544,800 Source: Estimation of JICA Study Team
Table 4-2-10 Estimation of Enrollments in 2030 Percentage of No. of School Percentage of Enrollments School Age Age Enrollments Primary 7.9% 2,482,400 100.0% 2,482,400 Secondary 9.3% 2,934,800 80.0% 2,347,840 Tertiary 3.9% 1,247,300 50.0% 623,650 University 7.8% 2,457,900 13.0% 319,527 Total 28.9% 9,122,400 63.3% 5,773,417 Source: Estimation of JICA Study Team
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4.3 Land Use Plan
4.3.1 Basic Concept for Future Land Use
(1) Schematic urban structures
Karachi faces rapid population growth with an annual increase rate of 4.2% in the last five years, and the present population (2010) was estimated at 18.9 million. The population will be 27.5 million in 2020 and 31.6 million in 2030. This will bring about the expansion of the city size. There are two alternatives of the urbanization pattern to cope with the above-mentioned very strong urban growth pressures. One is so called natural “urban sprawl” pattern. Arterial roads, especially in radial directions from the old city center towards every hinterland except for Arabian Sea, are rather well developed in Karachi, such as RCD Highway, Chaudry Faisal Ellahi Road, University Road, Shahra-e-Faisal & National Highway, and Korangi Road. Therefore, its urban growth is easy to follow the natural spread and sprawl pattern along these arterial roads. The historical urban growths clearly indicate this pattern since the independence, and urbanized area already expanded within 10 to 15km radius area. Judging from the efficiency of urban activity, especially in urban traffic movements, this urban structure causes a variety of disadvantages and results in serious stagnation of urban activities in case of large scale metropolitan area. As historical urbanization in Karachi basically succeeds such a pattern, it is not so easy to divert its tendency drastically both in future. However, it is necessary to aim at better development pattern in order to cope with a huge amount of increasing population in future, keeping proper urban economic activities. In order to avoid such disadvantages caused by free sprawl development without proper planning, another alternative development pattern will be recommended following the existing urban structure of Karachi; that is, “Multi-Satellite City Cores Development” pattern. For this development pattern, it is inevitable to strengthen the circumferential transport network together with radial corridors and also to create the satellite urban cores for dispersal of various urban functions that were located within the old CBD area. A schematic diagram is illustrated in Figure 4-3-1.
Natural Sprawl Development without Multi-Satellite City Cores Development Proper Planning
Source: JICA Study Team Figure 4-3-1 Schematic Urban Structures
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(2) Future urban structure of Karachi
The future urban structure was formulated based on the “Multi-Satellite City Cores Development” pattern as shown in Figure 4-3-3. This will be a basic guideline of future urban development of Karachi. The urban transport network including roads and mass transit systems was examined in accordance with this development guideline.
Business/ Com m ercial Cores Education (Institution) Cores In d u s t ria l Co re s
Ra d ia l Ro a d Co rrid o r Circumferential Road Corridor Radial Mass- Transit Corridor Circumferential mass- Transit Corridor
Source: Prepared by the JICA Study Team Figure 4-3-2 Future Urban Structure, Karachi (2030)
4.3.2 Future Land Use Planning
In accordance with the future socio-economic framework examined in the previous section, the future land use plan for 2030 was formulated as one of most important urban transport planning frameworks. As the fundamental future land use plan for the year 2020 was established and legally approved in KSDP 2020, basic plan and planning directions of the land use plan in 2030 followed KSDP 2020 in line with its concept. Therefore, the land use plan in this study completely follows for 2020, and some additional examinations are considered for the year 2030. Considering the results of various discussions with some experts of urban planning in Karachi, such as urban planners, urban consultants, EDO (T&C), NGO on urban planning, senior research economist, Prof. NED University, EDO (works), etc., following planning directions were applied. To follow KSDP 2020 policies, Prevention of new expansions outside of KSDP 2020 urbanization boundary in principle, High density development in Inner-city and Core areas, Densification and infilling within KSDP 2020 urbanization boundary.
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(1) Urbanization Area for 2030
At first, total necessary land area for urban development in the year 2030 was estimated. The general population density of Karachi (population density against the total urban area excluding agricultural use and water-bodies) in 2010 was calculated at 238 persons/ha. This can be considered as the gross density because the area include some vacant land sites, under-developing estates, transport facilities, industrial areas, institutions, etc within the urban area of Karachi. This population density in Karachi, which is as same as Mumbai in India, is rather high comparing to other major cities in the world. Since this higher population density is one of significant characteristics of Karachi, very poor living environment, it would decrease even at very slow pace in the future in accordance with economic development and improvement of living quality. When future density is assumed as 200 persons/ha (about 20% less), 158,000 ha of urbanization area is required for the estimated population of 31,600 thousand in 2030. It will account for almost double of present urbanized area. This area is enough within the urbanization promotion area planned in KSDP 2020, and it is rather rational, considering the basic our planning policies mentioned above. Table 4-3-1 Necessary Urbanization Area 2010 2030 Population 18,935,000 31,600,000 Urbanization Area (ha) 79,567 158,000 Gross Population Density (person/ha) 238 200 Note: (excluding Agriculture use & Water-bodies) Source: JICA Study Team (KTIP)
TownUC_boundary Town Boundary Kirthar_National_Park Urbanization Area Agriculutural
Gadap
New Karachi
Malir Cannt Orangi Baldia N.Nazimabad Gulberg Gulshan Iqba
SITE Keamari Liaquatabad Fasial Cantt Malir Shah Faisal Lyari Jamshed Bin Qasim Saddar Karachi Cant
Korangi Landhi
Manora Cantt Clifton Cant Korangi Cant
Source: Land Use Survey by the JICA Study Team (KTIP) Figure 4-3-3 Urbanized Area (2010)
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Kirthar_National_Park
Urbanization border TownUC_boundary Town Boundary Gadap Urbanization Area Agriculutural
New Karachi Malir Cannt Orangi N.Nazimabad Baldia Gulberg Gulshan Iqba
Keamari SITE Liaquatabad Fasial Cantt Malir Lyari Shah Faisal Bin Qasim Saddar Jamshed Karachi Cant Korangi Landhi
Manora Cantt Clifton Cant Korangi Cant
Source: Elaborated by the JICA Study Team (KTIP) Figure 4-3-4 Urbanization Area (2030)
(2) Basic Policies for Major Land Use Allocation
The urbanization area has been broken down into major land use category based on the following policies which follows the policies in KSDP 2020. In order to cope with a huge amount of increasing population from 2010 to 2030, the spatial needs for housing will be provided through a set of spatial growth strategy. i) Densification: Saddar, Jamshed, North Nazimabad, Gulberg, SITE and Sha Faisal Towns. ii) Densification and Infill: Gulshan-e-Iqbal, Landhi, Korangi, New Karachi Towns, DHA and Cantonments. iii) Infill and Expansion: Baldia, Malir and Orangi Towns, new development schemes in Gadap, Keamari and Bin Qasim Towns. iv) Status Quo: Lyari and Liaqatabad Towns.
Regenerating the inner city urban functions by mixed use promotion and vertical development and densification. Development of new urban centres. Industrial complex developments together with logistic functions in the area of Bin Qasim and along Northern Bypass. Considerations to various large-scale urban development plans.
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(3) Examples of large-scale urban development
Some Large-scale urban developments such as DHA City Karachi, Education City, Textile City, Naya Nazimabad, etc. are planned in Karachi metropolitan area, and they are also taken into consideration for future urban development.
4.3.3 Land Use Plan in 2030
Figure 4-3-5 illustrates the final result of future land use for 2030. This figure shows representative land use by UC. Since units of UC are rather large especially in the surrounding three Towns, such as Gadap, Bin Qasim and Keamari, all the area of UC might not be developed in the same density.
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Residential Residential(Mix) Commercial Commercial(Mix) Warehouse/Whole Sale Marlet Institution Recreation Industrial Gadap Industrial(Mix) Agricultural Restricted Area
New Karachi
Orangi Malir Cannt Baldia N.Nazimabad Gulberg Gulshan Iqba
SITE Keamari Liaquatabad Fasial Cantt Malir Shah Faisal Lyari Jamshed Bin Qasim Saddar Karachi Cant
Landhi Korangi
Manora Cantt Clifton Cant Korangi Cant
Source: KTIP Figure 4-3-5 Future Land Use Plan, 2030
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4.3.4 Distribution of Future Population
The Distribution of the future population is examined based on the future land use plan and spatial growth strategies. Spatial changes will occur across the metropolitan area through a development process based on the following four (4) spatial growth strategies by town. The target of this strategy is from 2010 to 2030. (1) Spatial growth strategies
1) Densification Through floor addition, high-rise development in designated areas, walkup apartments and subdivision of large plots, densification will result in a considerable increase in space use for housing, and business, offices and other uses. Although the process will occur in all towns in varying degree, it will be increasingly prevalent in three towns, namely Saddar, Jamshed, Karachi cantonment. 2) Densification and Infill A combination of densification and infill process (occupation of vacant land for various land uses) will intensify to accommodate future growth. Changes will take place more through densification than infill. The process will occur particularly in ten towns and three cantonment, namely Gulshan-e-Iqbal, Landhi, Korangi, New Karachi, North Nazimabad, Gulberg, SITE, Shah Faisal, Baldia, Malir, Orangi Towns, and Clifton, Korangi, Faisal cantonment. 3) Infill and Expansion Infill along with expansion will proceed to achieve growth in varying degrees. Growth will be higher in Malir cantonment; expansion will occur in Gadap Town, Keamari and Bin-Qasim through the development of new schemes in the public and private sectors. 4) Status Quo: Population density is already high in Lyari and Liaqatabad Towns. The recommended strategy is, therefore, to maintain the status quo and also no increase in the existing density should be allowed.
Densification Densification and Infill Infill and Expansion Status Quo Gadap
New Karachi
Orangi Malir Cannt Baldia N.Nazimabad Gulberg Gulshan Iqba
Keamari SITE Liaquatabad Fasial Cantt Malir Lyari Shah Faisal Jamshed Bin Qasim Saddar Karachi Cant
Korangi Landhi
Manora Cantt Clifton Cant Korangi Cant
Source: Proposed in KTIP Figure 4-3-6 Spatial growth strategies from 2010 to 2030
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(2) Assumed Population Density by Land Use
Basic considerations for future population density are summarized as follows: 1) Residential Land Use - 200 person/ha: Most of residential areas in future urbanization area, judging from the existing population density for medium income level. - 750 person/ha: Since the area where major parts of UC are occupied by Katchi Abadis have very high density of over 1,000 person/ha, future population density will be improved up to 750 person/ha. 2) Commercial Land Use - 200 – 1,500 person/ha: For commercial land use areas, various levels of population density are examined, in accordance with current population densities. - Possible developments are considered such as high rise / high-density mixed use especially in the corridor area of arterial road. Also, same level of density is applied for newly developed satellite cores. 3) Industrial Land Use - 25 – 50 person/ha: For industrial area. - 50 – 200 person/ha: For mixed use area with industrial.
Table 4-3-2 Standards of Population Density by Land Use Category Unit：person / ha Existing urbanized area Future urbanization Land Use Categories Existing area Vacant urban area Residential 200 status quo 200 100 status quo 100 Mix residential Area where major parts of UC are occupied by Katchi Abadis over 750 person/ha, future population density will be improved up to 750 person/ha. According to a current population Commercial 500 density, 200, 500, 1,000, 1,500 Mix Commercial 1,000 status quo Institution 50 status quo Industrial 25 50 Mix Industrial 50 200 Warehouse 25 - Recreation 5 - Source: Prepared in KTIP
(5) Distribution of future population
Population by UC is estimated by population density based on Land Use Plan. Work flow for the estimation of population by UC is illustrated in figure 4-3-7. Result of population by town is shown in Table 4-3-3 and Figure 4-3-8. The trend of population density from 2010 to 2030 is illustrated in figure 4-3-9, 4-3-10 and 4-3-11.
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Land Use (2020,2030)
Population Density (2020,2030)
UC Area
Tentative Population by Tentative Population by UC（２０２０） UC（２０3０） Spatial growth strategies
Control total by Town Population Town Population Control total by in KSDP2020 （２０3０） Town Population(2030)
Population by UC Population by UC （２０2０） （２０3０） Source: KTIP Figure 4-3-7 Work flow for the estimation of population by UC
Table 4-3-3 Future Population by Town / Cantonment Town 2010 2020 2020/2010 2030 2030/2010 1 Keamari 762,000 1,914,000 2.51 2,290,000 3.01 2 S.I.T.E 854,000 895,000 1.05 895,000 1.05 3 BALDIA 864,000 1,110,000 1.28 1,110,000 1.28 4 ORANGI 1,338,000 1,429,000 1.07 1,523,000 1.14 5 LYARI 939,000 969,000 1.03 969,000 1.03 6 SADDAR 1,104,000 1,123,000 1.02 1,233,000 1.12 7 JAMSHED 1,397,000 1,560,000 1.12 1,713,000 1.23 8 GULSHAN-E-IQBAL 1,458,000 2,373,000 1.63 2,684,000 1.84 9 SHAH FAISAL 602,000 612,000 1.02 647,000 1.07 10 LANDHI 1,353,000 1,822,000 1.35 1,822,000 1.35 11 KORANGI 1,286,000 1,826,000 1.42 1,826,000 1.42 12 NORTH NAZIMABAD 917,000 979,000 1.07 1,044,000 1.14 13 NEW KARACHI 1,226,000 1,247,000 1.02 1,328,000 1.08 14 GULBERG 838,000 895,000 1.07 954,000 1.14 15 LIAQUATABAD 1,002,000 1,035,000 1.03 1,035,000 1.03 16 MALIR 781,000 907,000 1.16 937,000 1.20 17 BIN QASIM 518,000 2,032,000 3.92 2,697,000 5.21 GADAP West 263,000 1,058,000 4.02 1,715,000 6.52 GADAP Central 146,000 1,512,000 10.36 2,522,000 17.27 18 GADAP East 128,000 508,000 3.97 823,000 6.43 GADAP Total 537,000 3,078,000 5.73 5,060,000 9.42 19 Karachi Cantonment 88,000 90,000 1.02 96,000 1.09 20 Clifton Cantonment 559,000 771,000 1.38 821,000 1.47 21 Faisal Cantonment 248,000 352,000 1.42 363,000 1.46 22 Malir Cantonment 206,000 400,000 1.94 414,000 2.01 23 Manora Cantonment 10,000 10,000 1.00 10,000 1.00 24 Korangi Cantonment 47,000 122,000 2.60 130,000 2.77 Total 18,934,000 27,551,000 1.46 31,601,000 1.67 Source: Estimated in KTIP
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0.5/1.0/1.5 million
‘10/’20/’30 18Gadap
18Gadap_cenral 18Gadap_west
13New Karachi 12N.Nazimabad 18Gadap_east 4Orangi 22Malir 3Baldia 14Gulberg 8Gulshan Iqba 1Keamari 2SITE 15Liaquatabad 21Fasial
16Malir 9Shah Faisal 6Saddar 5Lyari 7Jamshed 17Bin Qasim 19Karachi
11Korangi 10Landhi
23Manora 20Clifton 24Korangi
Source: Projection in KTIP Figure 4-3-8 Future Population growth by Town / Cantonment (2010, 2020 2030)
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Persons/ha
- 10 10 - 50 - 100 - 250 - 500 - 750 - 1000 - 1500 - 2000 -
Figure 4-3-9 Population density by UC in 2010
Persons/ha
- 10 10 - 50 - 100 - 250 - 500 - 750 - 1000 - 1500 - 2000 -
Figure 4-3-10 Population density by UC in 2020
Persons/ha
- 10 10 - 50 - 100 - 250 - 500 - 750 - 1000 - 1500 - 2000 -
Figure 4-3-11 Population density by UC in 2030 Source: KTIP (Figure 4-3-10, 11, and 12)
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4.4 Financial Framework
4.4.1 Government Budget
(1) City District Government Karachi (CDGK)
Table 4-4-1 shows the receipts for the CDGK budget in 2010-11. The total receipts for CDGK account for 53,958 million, in which the receipts for Water & Sanitation Department (KW&SB) account for Rs. 14.5 million, and that of Funds for Developed Departments (GOS) through Single Line Transfer System account for Rs. 17,329 million. The rest of Rs. 22,031 million is for the general budget, in which current receipts and capital receipts account for Rs. 20,783 million and Rs. 1,248 million respectively. Table 4-4-1 CDGK Budget at Glance 2010-11 (Receipts) Unit: Rs. Million Receipts Amount Current Receipts. 20,782.78 Capital Receipts. 1,247.88 Sub-Total 22,030.64 Water & Sanitation Department (KW&SB) 14,597.80 Funds for Devolved Departments (GOS) through Single Line 17,329.96 Transfer System (Salary, Non Salary & ADP) Total Receipts 53,958.40 Source: CDGK Budget 2010-2011 Highlights
The trend of the receipts for general budget of CDGK is shown in Figure 4-4-1.
Unit: Rs. million
30,000 Current Receipts Caital Receipts Total
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
Source: CDGK Budget Highlights Figure 4-4-1 CDGK Budget Receipts (Current Receipts and Capital Receipts)
Table 4-4-2 shows the source of receipts for the budget of CDGK in 2010-11. The CDGK revenue of Rs. 7,648 million is the major source of the receipt for the general budget, accounting for 34.7% of the total. The amount of grants and releases from the Government is Rs. 5,982 million, which account for 27.2%.
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Table 4-4-2 Summary of CDGK Budget (2010-2011) (Unit: Rs. Million ) S. No. Group of Offices / Departments 2010 –2011 % 1 Revenue 7,648.34 34.72 2 Grants / Releases from Government. 5,981.72 27.15 3 Dues of defunct KMC/KDA against KESC. 1,983.06 9.00 4 Municipal Services 1,512.00 6.86 5 Master Plan 1,266.32 5.75 6 Transfer of income from KBCA 1,000.00 4.54 7 Works & Services 805.33 3.66 8 Finance & Planning 814.92 3.70 9 Enterprise & Investment Promotion 567.30 2.58 10 Coordination 135.55 0.62 11 Transport & Communication 129.10 0.59 12 Community Development 85.49 0.39 13 Health 54.37 0.25 14 Karachi Mass Transit Cell 46.43 0.21 15 Information Technology 0.70 0.00 Total 22,030.64 100.00 16 Water & Sanitation Department (KW&SB) 14,597.80 Funds for Devolved Departments, GOS through Single 17,329.96 17 Line Transfer System (Salary, Non Salary & ADP) Grand Total 53958.40 Source: CDGK Budget 2010-2011 Highlights
Table 4-4-3 shows the expenditure of CDGK in 2010-11. CDGK will spend Rs. 10,436 million as Development Expenditure. This is the scale of the budget for the infrastructure development in Karachi at present, which is so small that it is difficult to allocate a part of budget to the mass transit development. Table 4-4-3 CDGK Budget at Glance 2010-11 (Expenditure) (Unit: Rs. Million ) EXPENDITURE Amount Establishment 7,263.40 Contingent 1,488.33 Repair & Maintenance 294.29 Development Expenditure 10,436.29 Funds / Share to Towns &Union Councils 2,463.95 Sub-Total (1) 21,946.26 Water & Sanitation Department (KW&SB) (i) Current Expenditure. 6,760.86 (ii) Development Expenditure. 7,836.94 Sub-Total (2) 14,597.80 Funds for Devolved Departments, GOS through Single Line Transfer
System (I) Salary & Non Salary 13,929.96 (II) District ADP. 3,400.00 Sub-Total (3) 17,329.96 Total Expenditure (1) + (2) + (3) 53,874.02 Surplus (+) 84.38 Source: CDGK Budget 2010-2011 Highlights
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The trend of the total expenditure and development expenditure for general budget of CDGK is shown in Figure 4-4-2.
(Rs. Million) CDGK Budget 80000 50%
70000 44.1% 40% 60000 38.0% 35.4%
50000 30%
40000 25.7%
20% 30000
20000 10% 10000
0 0% 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total Expenditure Development Expenditure Rate of Development Expenditure
Note: Total expenditures in 2003-04 and 2008-09 don’t include KW&SB. Source: CDGK Budget Highlights Figure 4-4-2 CDGK Budget Total Expenditure and Development Expenditure
(2) Government of Sindh (GOS)
Table 4-4-4 shows the budget of GOS in 2010-11. The total receipt accounts for Rs. 366,374 million, in which current revenue receipt and current capital receipt account for Rs. 340,244 million and Rs. 26,130 million, respectively. Table 4-4-4 GOS Budget (Rs. Million )
BUDGET CURRENT BUDGET ESTIMATES
A. CURRENT REVENUE RECEIPTS Federal Tax Assignment A1. Revenue Assignment 207274.64 A2. Special Grant (Grant-in-Aid) 0.00 A3. Provincial Receipts 50500.00 A4. Provincial Sales Tax on Services 25000.00 A5. Straight Transfers 51209.00 A6. District Support Grant (including Other Grants) 5572.35 A7. Production Bonus (Special Grant) 678.58 Sub-Total (A1 to A7) A 340244.18 B. CURRENT REVENUE EXPENDITURE B1. Provincial Government 147451.86
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B2. Local Governments (DGs, TMAs, UAs) 120815.41 Sub-Total (B1+ B2) B 268267.27 C. CURRENT CAPITAL RECEIPTS C1. Local Repayments 6731.98 C2. SDSSP 0.00 C3. DPC/SWAP, World Bank 8148.00 C4. European Commission Grant 918.00 C5. ADB Funding 10332.00 Sub-Total (C1 to C5) ( C 26129.98 D. CURRENT CAPITAL EXPENDITURE D1. Current Capital Expenditure 1898.10 Sub-Total (D1) ( D 1898.10 Total(A+C) ( AC 366374.15 Total(B+D) ( BD 287165.37 AC-BD 79208.79 Source: GOS Budget at a Glance
The trend of the receipts for general budget of GOS is shown in Figure 4-4-3.
Current Receipts Caital Receipts Total Receipts (Rs. Million) 400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11
Source: GOS Budget at a Glance
Figure 4-4-3 GOS Budget Receipts (Current Receipts and Capital Receipts)
The trend of the total expenditure and development expenditure for general budget of GOS is shown in Figure 4-4-4.
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(Rs. Million) GOS Budget 400000 50%
40% 300000
30%
200000
20%
100000 10%
0 0% 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010
Total Expenditure Total Development Outlay Share of Development Outlay
Source: GOS Budget at a Glance Figure 4-4-4 CDGK Budget Total Expenditure and Development Expenditure
(3) Federal Government
Table 4-4-5 shows the receipts for the federal government budget in 2010-11. Of total internal receipts of Rs. 2,574,884 million, the tax revenue receipt is Rs. 1,778,715 million or 69.1%, and non-tax receipts are Rs. 632,279 million or 24.6%. The total revenue receipts, which totalled tax revenue receipt and non-tax receipts account for Rs. 2,410,994 million or 93.6%.
Table 4-4-5 Federal Government Budget 2010-2011 Receipts (Rs. Million) Budget Estimates code Description 2010-11 Federal Consolidated Fund (5+6) 2,961,504 1 Tax Revenue Receipts 1,778,715 Direct Taxes 657,700 Indirect Taxes 1,121,015 2 Non-Tax Receipts 632,279 Income from Property and Enterprise 169,985 Receipts from Civil Administration etc. 332,250 Miscellaneous Receipts 130,044 3 Total Revenue Receipts (1+2) 2,410,994 4 Capital Receipts 163,890 Recovery of Loans and Advances 47,460 Domestic Debt Receipts (Net) 116,430 5 Total Internal Receipts (3+4) 2,574,884 6 External Receipts 386,620 Loans 286,934 Grants 99,686 7 Public Accounts Receipts (Net) 216,144 Deferred Liabilities (Net) 215,014 Deposit and Reserves (Net) 1,130 8 Gross Federal Resources (5+6+7) 3,177,647
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9 Less Provincial Share in Federal Taxes 1,033,643 10 Net Federal Resources (8-9) 2,144,004 11 Cash Balance built up by the Provinces 166,925 12 Privatization Proceeds - 13 Credit from Banking Sector 166,544 14 Total-Resources (10+11+12+13) 2,477,472 Source: Ministry of Finance & Revenue
Table 4-4-6 shows the receipts for the federal government budget for expenditure in 2010-11. Of total expenditure of Rs. 2,477,472 million, total development expenditure is Rs. 444,930 million, accounting for 18.0%.
Table 4-4-6 Federal Government Budget 2010-11 Expenditure (Rs in million) Budget code Description Estimates 2010-11 Current Expenditure on Revenue Account 01 General Public Services 1,387,664 02 Defence Affairs and Services 442,173 03 Public Order and Safety Affairs 51,263 04 Economic Affairs 66,897 05 Environment Protection 448 06 Housing and Community Amenities 1,842 07 Health 7,293 08 Recreation, Culture and Religion 4,359 09 Education Affairs and Services 34,500 10 Social Protection 1,463 a. Current Exp. on Revenue Account 1,997,892 b. Current Exp. on Capital Account 54,650 1 Total Current Expenditure (a + b) 2,052,542 c. Dev. Exp. on Revenue Account (i+ii) 311,885 i. Dev. Exp. on Revenue Account (PSDP) 188,340 ii. Other Dev. Exp. on Revenue Account 123,545 d. Dev. Expenditure on Capital Account 321,385 (Total Public Sector Dev. Program) (i+d) 321,385 2 Total Development Expenditure (c + d) 444,930 3 Estimated Operational Shortfall in PSDP (20,000) Total - Expenditure (1+2+3) 2,477,472 4 Break-up of Expenditure Revenue Account (a+c) 2,309,777 Capital Account (b+d) 187,695 Estimated Operational Shortfall in PSDP (20,000) Total Expenditure 2,477,472 Source: Ministry of Finance & Revenue
The trend of revenues for general budget of the federal government is shown in Figure 4-4-5.
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(Rs. Million) Total Revenues Tax Revenues Non‐Tax Revenues 2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0 2002‐2003 2003‐2004 2004‐2005 2005‐2006 2006‐2007 2007‐2008 2008‐2009 2009‐2010
Source: Budget Wing, Finance Division, Islamabad Figure 4-4-5 Federal Government Budget Revenues (Tax Revenues and Non-Tax Revenues)
The trend of the total expenditure and development expenditure for general budget of the federal government is shown in Figure 4-4-6.
(Rs. Million) Federal Budget 3,000,000 30%
26.0% 2,500,000 24.1%
19.9% 2,000,000 20.4% 20% 19.0%
16.8% 1,500,000 14.4% 12.6% 12.6% 1,000,000 10%
500,000
0 0% 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Total Expenditure Development Expenditure Rate of Development Expenditure
Source: Budget Wing, Finance Division, Islamabad Figure 4-4-6 Federal Government Budget Total Expenditure and Development Expenditure
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4.4.2 Investment for Transport Sector in Karachi
(1) Investment for transport sector of CDGK
CDGK completed 181 projects in the transport sector for the last five years (2004-2009) with the total cost of Rs. 13,364 million as shown in Table 4-4-7. This total amount accounts for 6.58% of the total expenditure of CDGK during 2004-2009. There are 246 on-going projects (Rs. 23,239 million) by Work and Services Group, CDGK as shown in Table 4-4-8. CDGK plans to carry out 43 projects with the total cost of Rs. 25,327 million from 2010 to 2013 for the transport sector as shown in Table 4-4-9. Table 4-4-7 Work Completed (2004-09) by Work and Services Group, CDGK SCHEME NUMBER COST (Rs. in Million) Bridges and Flyovers 11 3,394.720 Building Works 23 692.784 Drainage Work 12 267.418 Road Works(about 4000Kms) 126 7,231.792 Rural Drainage Schemes 3 71.765 Rural Water Supply Schemes 2 37.796 Underpasses 4 1,668.000 Grand Total 181 13,364.275 Source: Work and Service Group, CDGK
Table 4-4-8 CDGK Sector-wise Progress of Development (Rs in Million) SCHEME Sector/Sub Sector NUMBER COST T&C-Roads Provincial(ADP)-Umbrellas Ph-Ⅰ 11 2,126.000 PP&H-Drains Provincial(ADP)-Natural Nallahs PP&H-Drain 12 943.405 Provincial(ADP)-Bin Qasim Town T&C-Road 6 324.293 PP&H T&C Provincial(ADP)-Lyari Package 14 428.430 Education Health Provincial(ADP)-Spl Package (New) T&C-Bridges 6 1,262.497 Provincial(ADP)-Umbrellas Ph-Ⅱ T&C-Road 43 1,880.473 T&C-Bridges Provincial(ADP)-Spl Package (On-Going) 7 1,323.177 T&C-Roads T&C-Bridges Provincial(ADP)-Other Works 17 5,900.859 T&C-Roads T&C PP&H CDGK Allocations 71 3,149.992 Health Education District(ADP) T&C-Road 55 3,851.997 T&C-Bridges Fereral PSDP 4 2,047.950 PP&H-Drains Grand Total 246 23,239.073 Source: Work and Service Group, CDGK Table 4-4-9 CDGK proposal works (2010-13) (Rs in Million) SCHEME NUMBER COST Bridges and Flyover 7 4,750.000 Nallah and Drains 2 1,600.000 Roards 34 18,976.620 Grand Total 43 25,326.620 Source: Work and Service Group, CDGK
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(2) Investment amount for transport sector of GOS in Karachi
The total amount of revenue and capital of GOS for the transport sector accounts for Rs. 225 million in 2010-11 as shown in Table 4-4-10. The budget for the transport related project, which is directly implemented by GOS is very small. Table 4-4-10 Government of Sindh Transport Budget 2010-2011 (Rs. in Million) Capital Revenue Total On-going Schemes 79.000 81.000 160.000 New Schemes 20.000 0.000 20.000 Total Transport 99.000 81.000 180.000 Source: GOS Financial Data
Table 4-4-11 shows the budget of GOS for T&C sector in Karachi. The total of the budget estimate from 2007-08 to 2009-10 was Rs. 5,991 million, although the budget has been revised to approximately double the budget estimate every fiscal year, and the total of the revised estimate in the three years amounts to Rs. 10,371 million. This total amount accounts for 1.26% of total expenditure of GOS during 2007-2010 (revised estimate). Table 4-4-11 Release Position of T&C Sector Schemes pertaining to CDGK (Rs. Million) 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Total Budget Estimate 2,314.439 1,681.000 1,995.317 5,990.756 Revised Estimate 4,060.085 3,178.406 3,132.945 10,371.436 Source: GOS Financial Data
(3) Investment amount for transport sector of Federal Government
Table 4-4-12 shows the budget of the federal government allocation for communications. Most works of Ministry of communications are related to the transportation sector. The total amount from 2004-05 to 2010-11 is Rs. 173,562 million, accounting for 1.23% of the total expenditure of the federal government during the same period.
Table 4-4-12 Federal Government Transport sector expenditure (Rs. Million) Total Allocation for Rate of Fiscal Year Expenditures Communications Communications 2004-2005 1,116,981 17,689 1.58% 2005-2006 1,401,900 16,477 1.18% 2006-2007 1,799,968 18,161 1.01% 2007-2008 2,276,549 20,940 0.92% 2008-2009 2,531,308 26,756 1.06% 2009-2010 2,517,020 35,972 1.43% 2010-2011 2,477,472 37,567 1.52% Total 14,121,198 173,562 1.23% Source: Budget Wing, Finance Division, Islamabad Planning Commission of Pakistan / Ministry of Finance, GOP.
(4) Karachi Package
GOS released Rs. 2,000 million for 16 road projects including flyover constructions, road constructions, and road rehabilitation as Karachi Package in 2009-10 as shown in Table 4-4-13. The same scale, i.e. Rs. 2,000 million, will be released for Karachi Package in 2010-11. The re-appropriation of Rs. 323.461 million is under process for Karachi Package.
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Table 4-4-13 Details of Funds released for Karachi Package for the last FY (Rs in Million) Sr.No. Name of scheme Amount released 1 Construction of 3-Lane Flyover at Chanesar Halt on Shara-e-Faisal, Karachi. (Karachi 220.000 Construction of 2-Lane Flyover (a) Regent Palaza Intersection, Shara-e-eFaisal, 2 132.167 Karachi. (b) Hotel Mehran Intersetion, Shahara-e-Faisal, Karachi. (Karachi Package) Construction of 2-Lane Flyover Along Dr.Ziauddin Ahmed Road at PIDC 3 50.000 Intersection, Karachi.(Karachi Package) Construction of 4-Lane Flyover at Intersection Shaheed-e-Millat Road & 4 324.437 Mehmoodabad Near City Scool PAF Chapter, Karachi.(Karachi Package) Rehabilitation / Improvement Shahrah-e-Sadi from Nehre-Khayam to Bilawal 5 55.000 Chowrangi including service road between Bilawal Chowrangi and Marine drive Special Project Chanalization / Construction of Natural Nallas of Orangi Baldia, 6 194.821 Orangi north Nazimabad Korangi and Gulshan-e-Iqbal Town 7 Construction of Rehabilitation City Disrict Government Karachi (Phase-Ⅰ) Umbrella 105.000 Balance work of Shahrah-e-Qaddafi from Qasbba more to German School Orangi 8 150.000 Town Karachi. 9 Construction of Azeempura road, Shah Faisal Town. 45.000 Construction of Servise road on both side of Mauripur road from Gate 1 to the end / 10 100.000 beyond of truck stand. Improvement of road 4300 and Construction of storm water drain from road 5200 to 11 25.000 Lyari river at the Karachi. 12 Construction / Improvement of rural areas of CDGK (defunct) District Councils) 20.000 Bridge over Lyari River connecting Surjani with Gulshane-e-Maymer,Yousuf Goth 13 35.000 Super Highway. Construction and Rehabilitation of Shahrah-e-Noor Jahan from Abdullah College to 14 82.589 Qalandria Chowk Karachi 15 Construction of road from Chanesar Goth to Mehmoodabad Corporation road. 6.986 Construction of Flyover / Interchanged at Banaras Chowk Karachi with the inclusion 16 189.000 of Pdestrian Crossing Bridge Total amount released 2,000.000 Source: GOS
4.4.3 Motor Vehicle Tax and Fee
Table 4-4-14 shows the rate of motor vehicle tax and fee. These taxes are included in the general account of revenue instead of a special purpose tax for specific expenditure. Table 4-4-15 shows present annual rates of with-holding tax for non-commercial and commercial vehicles. Figure 4-4-7 shows collection of motor vehicle tax and registration fee. The total revenue from the motor vehicle tax and registration fee exceeds Rs. 2,000 million in 2009-10. Tax and registration fee are imposed on motor vehicle users in various forms, and the amount of total receipts is substantial. The gasoline tax is a considerable revenue source as well. In addition to these current taxes, introduction of new special purpose tax is considered as a possibility of a source of revenue. However, it would be difficult to establish a new special purpose tax for car and gasoline for mass transit development because it could arouse resistant pressure from the public.
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Table 4-4-14 Motor Vehicle Tax and Fee
RATE OF MOTOR VEHICLE TAXES MSC. FEE/TAXES REGISTRASTION FEE COMMERCIAL NON COMMERCIAL Non-Commercial Trucks/Mini Trucks/D.Van & Seating capacity not TRANSFER/ On Invoice Value upto Pickup (Laden Weight) more than 3 persons ALTERATON FEE: 1300 cc 1% a. Not exceeding 4060 kg 800/- (per annum) Non Commercial 1301 to 2500 cc 2% b. 4061 to 8120 kg 2000/- Seating capacity more a. Upto 800 cc 650/- Exceeding 2500 cc 4% c. 8121 to 16000 kg 6000/- than 3 persons but not b. More than 800 cc 800/- d. 16001 to 29999 kg 8000/- more than 6 persons c. Pickup & St.Wagon 1000/- Motorcycle/Scootor 1% with Engine Capacity per having HP 1000 cc & above Commercial vehicles. annum: Cranes a. Not exceeding 1000 cc 1000/- Commercial Luxury Tax Upto 8120 kg 2000/- b. 1001 to 1300 1500/- a. Truck/Bus etc. 1250/- (At the time of c. 1301 to 1600 3000/- b. Pickup/Minibus upto 1000/- Registration) Vehicles plying for hire and d. 1601 to 2000 3200/- 25 seats a. Imported motor cars 100,000/- ordinary used for the transport e. 2001 to 2500 3500/- c. Pickup 1000 cc 800/- with engine capacity of passenggers (Taxies & Busses) f. Above 2500 cc 5000/- d. Pickup upto 796 cc 650/- from 3000 cc & above. a. More than 20 seats (per seat) 100/- e.. Rickshaw 650/- b. Minibusses 7 to 19 seat (per seat) 160/- NOTE b. Imported motorcars 50,000/- Tax for each additional seat 200/- Transfer Fee of 125/- with engine capacity Taxis M.Cycles/scooters from 2000 cc to 2999 cc a. Upto 4 persons 520/- Relief By Sindh b. 5-6 persons 660/- Government (reduction) Fee for DCRC (for all types 200/- c. Imported motorcars 5,000/- c. More than 6 persons per seat a. 10 years old (from date of 25% of Vehicles). with engine capacity per annum. Reg.) from 1500 cc to 1999 cc ⅰ) Air-conditioned 150/- b. 15 years old 50% Number Plate Fee (per 100/- (for every exctra seat). Pair) d. Locally manufactured 5,000/- ⅱ)Non air conditioned 100/- Tractor per annum: or assembled motor (for every exctra seat). a. Witout Trolly 200/- No.Plate Fee for 150/- cars with engine b. With Trolly 300/- 03 plates in case of Trailer capacity fromm 1500 cc Tricycle Rickshaw and above For 3 persons 400/- MC/Scootor per annum 80/- a. Newly registered Life 1000/- Tractors 1200/- Time Tax b. Trolly (if fitted extra) 200/-
Source: Excise & Taxation Department
Table 4-4-15 With-holding Tax for Vehicles NON-COMMERCIAL COMMERCIAL SEATING Withholding NAME OF LADEN Professional Withholdin HOUSE POWER CAPACITY TAX VEHICLE WEIGT TAX g TAX 993 cc 4 NIL Pickup 1250 150 1200 992 cc 8 NIL Pickup 1251 to 2000 150 1200 992 cc 10 NIL Pickup 2031 to 4000 150 7200 1000 cc 4 500 Mini Trudk 4061 to 6000 150 7200 1000 cc 8 500 Mini Trudk 6091 to 8120 150 12000 1000 cc 10 500 Truck 8121 to 12000 150 12000 1001 cc to 1199 cc 4 500 Truck 12001 to 14999 150 12000 1001 cc to 1199 cc 8 500 Truck 15000 to 16000 150 18000 1001 cc to 1199 cc 10 500 Truck 16001 to 29999 150 18000 1001 cc to 1199 cc 12 500 Truck/Trailer 12001 to 14999 150 12000 1299 cc Truck/Trailer 15000 to 16000 150 18000 Truck/Trailer 16001 to 29999 150 18000 Crane 2031 to 4060 150 7200 Crane 4061 to 6090 150 7200 Crane 6091 to 8120 150 36000 Source: Excise & Taxation Department
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Rs. in Million 2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Year Source: Excise & Taxation Department
Figure 4-4-7 Collection of Motor Vehicle Tax and Registration Fee etc
4.4.4 Loan from International Aid Agencies
Funds from the government’s budget would not be enough to implement mass transit projects in Karachi. Borrowing from banks would be necessary to meet the demand of funds. The most probable funding source will be concessional loans from international donors such as ADB, World Bank and JBIC. Many projects in Pakistan have been actually financed by ADB, World Bank, and JBIC. Each organization shows the posture to support investment in an infrastructure sector, although there might be some subtle differences in terms of priorities. Figure 4-4-8 shows the transition of loan disbursements of foreign economic assistance to Pakistan. The total amount of the loan from 1999 to 2003 was very low due to temporary suspension of loans by Japan and other countries. Except those years, approximately US$ 2- 2.5 billion have been disbursed every year. In recent years, the disbursements are increasing.
Disbursements of Foreign Economic Assistance (Loans) (US$ Million) 3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Source: Economic Affairs Division Figure 4-4-8 Loan Disbursements of Foreign Economic Assistance for Pakistan
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4.4.5 Available Budget Estimation
(1) Estimation of Available Budget of CDGK in 2010
CDGK has spent 6.58% of the total expenditures for investment in the transport sector from 2004 to 2009. Budget for the investment on the mass transit development is limited because there are a number of projects to be implemented. It was assumed that 20% of the investment in the transport sector to be allocated to the mass transit development in Karachi. Based on the assumption, the total investible amount of CDGK budget for the mass transit development in 2010-11 was estimated at approximately Rs. 700 million as shown below. Rs. 53,874 million * 6.58% * 20% = Rs. 700 million (Rs. 53,874 million is the total expenditures of CDGK in 2010-11.)
(2) Estimation of Available Budget of GOS in 2010
GOS has spent 1.26% of total expenditures for the investment on the transport sector in Karachi area from 2007 to 2010. It was assumed that 15% of the investment on the transport sector in Karachi area could be supplied to mass transit development project. The total expenditure of GOS 2010-11 is Rs. 422,251, and the expenditure details are as follow: Rs. 268,267 million of Current Revenue Expenditure, Rs. 18,898 million of Current Capital Expenditure, and Rs. 135,085 million of Provincial Development Expenditure. Based on this precondition, the investible amount of GOS budget for the mass transit development was estimated at approximately Rs. 790 million in 2010-11 as shown below. Rs. 422,251 million * 1.26% * 15% = Rs. 790 million
(3) Estimation of Available Budget of GOP in 2010
Federal Government has spent 1.23% of total expenditures for investment in the transport sector from 2004 to 2011. Considering the population share of Karachi in Pakistan being 10.9%, it was assumed that 10.9% of total transport sector investment can be allocated to Karachi area. It was also assumed that 15% of the investment on the transport sector in Karachi area could be supplied to mass transit development project. Based on this precondition, the total amount which could be invested in the mass transit development would be approximately Rs.490 million from Federal Government budget in 2010-11. The total expenditure of Federal Government for 2010-11 is Rs. 2,477,472. Based on this precondition, the investible amount of GOP budget for the mass transit development was estimated at approximately Rs. 700 million as shown below. Rs. 2,477,472 million * 1.23% * 10.9% * 15% = Rs. 490 million
(4) Estimation of Investable Amount in 2010
As calculated above, the available budget on the mass transit development in Karachi in 2010-11 was Rs. 700 million by CDGK, Rs. 790 million by GOS, and Rs. 490 million by GOP, if the mass transit development was given high priority. These can be invested on projects as equity capital. In the mass transit project, loan from international donors is usually used other than equity capital. In case that debt-to-equity ratio is 80:20, loan portion in 2010-11 is calculated at approximately Rs. 7,920 million. This amount is 3.7% of the average yearly amount of loan disbursements of foreign economic assistance for Pakistan in recent years. If the loan from international
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donors is expanded, it will be a sufficiently possible amount of money. (5) Estimation of Investable Amount up to 2030
GDP growth percentage has been estimated as 4.7% in “4.2.3 Growth of GRDP in Karachi.” The investible amount has been calculated based on the precondition that each investable amount would increase by 4.7% annually from the year 2010. The estimation of investible amounts for the mass transit in Karachi until the year 2030 is shown in Table 4-4-19. The investible amounts shown in Table 4-4-16 is the estimation of potential investible amount based on the financial conditions of CDGK, GOS and GOP from 2013 to 2030. Thus, this is not the actual invested amounts by period. At actual implementation of a project, investment timing needs to be accelerating according to a project plan based on the potential investible amount. The investable amounts from 2013 to 2030 are estimated at Rs. 21,859 million by CDGK, Rs. 24,656 million by GOS and Rs. 15,271 million by GOP. Also, available amount of loan from international donors is estimated at Rs. 248,587 million. The total investable amount to the mass transit development project is estimated Rs. 310,373 million. If the amount of investment to KCR is Rs. 150,000 million, the investable amount to other mass transit will be estimated over Rs.160,000 million.
Table 4-4-16 Estimation of Available Budget for Mass Transit Development in Karachi (Rs. in Million) Annual Investment Amount Year Total CDGK GOS Federal Loans 2010 700 790 490 7,920 9,900 2011 732 827 513 8,292 10,364 2012 766 865 537 8,681 10,849 2013 802 905 562 9,089 11,358 2014 839 947 588 9,516 11,890 2015 878 991 615 9,963 12,447 2016 919 1,037 643 10,431 13,030 2017 962 1,085 673 10,921 13,641 2018 1,007 1,135 704 11,434 14,280 2019 1,054 1,188 737 11,971 14,950 2020 1,103 1,243 771 12,533 15,650 2021 1,154 1,301 807 13,122 16,384 2022 1,208 1,362 844 13,738 17,152 2023 1,264 1,426 883 14,383 17,956 2024 1,323 1,493 924 15,059 18,799 2025 1,385 1,563 967 15,766 19,681 2026 1,450 1,636 1,012 16,507 20,605 2027 1,518 1,712 1,059 17,282 21,571 2028 1,589 1,792 1,108 18,094 22,583 2029 1,663 1,876 1,160 18,944 23,643 2030 1,741 1,964 1,214 19,834 24,753 2013-30 21,859 24,656 15,271 248,587 310,373 Source: Estimation by the JICA Study Team Note: Annual investment is assumed to increase by 4.7% a year.
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