Weekly Brief

Conference call David Cameron’s speech in last week marked the end of another season. We are now two and a half years into this five year Parliament, and while mid-term conferences rarely contain the fireworks of those held immediately pre-election (witness the relative paucity of policy announcements this time around), there was nevertheless enough of interest at this year’s conferences to keep politicos of all hues chattering. The Lib Dems chose blustery as their home this year, and were duly rewarded by seafront gales. Things were less tempestuous in the conference hall, however, where the party’s attempted transformation from the third party of British politics to viable governing alternative continued. Nick Clegg used his keynote speech to make the case that there was no turning back, reminding the sometimes sceptical delegates of the party’s achievements in government. It is yet to be seen whether Clegg can bring his party along with him when they’re currently lying fourth – behind UKIP – in some polls. Elsewhere, Business Secretary Vince Cable was launching a new business bank, into which the Government intends to attract private finance, with the aim of eventually securing up to £10bn to lend to Britain’s SMEs. While details on the intricacies of how this will work remain scarce, any moves to bring much-needed liquidity to Britain’s SMEs must be welcomed. Over in , Labour’s conference was buoyed by their current poll standing. Whilst there is little argument within the party that the numbers are probably soft, a very real feeling that the party could once more find itself in power come 2015 pervaded – a fact not lost on those commentators who held that Ed Miliband’s ‘look no hands’ speech was perhaps his finest yet. Certainly the appropriation of the traditionally Conservative territory of ‘One Nation’ was audacious, even if the policy prescriptions (or lack thereof) were less so. Nevertheless, the fact that the Labour Leader has moved his rhetoric on from last year’s simplistic view of ‘Predators vs. Producers’ is a sign of maturity, and to be welcomed. Traditionally the last of the major conferences, the Conservatives gathered last week were no doubt a little surprised, but far from convinced, by the conviction with which Miliband delivered his speech. “Long on rhetoric, short on detail” was the prevailing verdict coming from the Birmingham ICC. One could argue that they should perhaps tread carefully when levelling such barbs at the Leader of the Opposition however; despite a frank approach to the scale of the challenges ahead and talk of forging an “aspiration nation”, detail remained somewhat thin on the ground from Mr Cameron. Instead, policy detail was left, as it often is, to George Osborne. The Chancellor outlined his plans for a bold new policy under which employees could agree to waive certain statutory workplace rules in return for a – CGT-exempt – equity stake in their respective company. This undoubtedly represents an innovative approach to tackling labour- market rigidity, and may well prove instrumental in allowing businesses to hire, and in turn grow – no mean feat. All told, this was a conference of stabilisation – much of preceding media talk had focused on the controversy surrounding Andrew Mitchell, not to mention the party’s weak poll ratings. It was therefore vital that the Messrs Cameron et al brought the party back to the straight and narrow – the early signs look tentatively promising. And so we move back to Westminster for an Autumn calendar that includes the passage of the Financial Services Bill through the Lords. Whilst all three of the leaders will have found much to take political solace from in their conferences, crucial for us was that the discussion of the role of business at all three conferences was mature, and backed by a few key policy announcements. There may not be a crystal ball in which one can predict the results of the 2015 election, but signs of optimism – whoever forms the next government – abound.

15 October 2012 Joe Steer, +44 (0) 207 420 1816, [email protected]

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