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The Economic Impacts from Operation of Canada's Energy Pipelines

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The Economic Impacts from Operation of Canada's Energy Pipelines The Economic Impacts from Operation of Canada’s Energy Pipelines A SPECIAL REPORT PREPARED FOR THE CANADIAN ENERGY PIPELINE ASSOCIATION by Angevine Economic Consulting Ltd. | October 2013 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 1 Results of the I-O Model Simulations A. Impacts from operation of crude oil transmission pipelines 2 B. Impacts from operation of crude oil and NGL transmission pipelines (combined) 3 C. Impacts from operation of Canada’s natural gas transmission pipelines 5 D. Impacts from operation of all transmission pipelines:crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas 8 E. Impact summary 9 Detailed Methodology 10 Energy Pipelines Included in the Analysis 12 THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM OPERATION OF CANADA’S ENERGY PIPELINES | OCTOBER 2013 THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM OPERATION OF CANADA’S ENERGY PIPELINES Introduction This report is a summary of the findings from using the most recent (2009) version of the Statistics Canada Interregional Input/Output (I-O) Model to evaluate the Canadian economic impacts from the operation of Canada’s energy transmission pipelines. The analysis was undertaken by Gerry Angevine of Angevine Economic Consulting Ltd., in collaboration with Rick DeWolf of R. DeWolf Consulting during the summer of 2013 on behalf of the Canadian Energy Pipeline Association (CEPA). The data required to perform the analysis, essentially gross operating revenues was obtained from annual reports and information filings submitted to regulatory authorities. In the case of private, non-regulated companies, CEPA helpfully provided some information; in other cases the required operating revenue data was estimated. 1 THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM OPERATION OF CANADA’S ENERGY PIPELINES | OCTOBER 2013 Results of I-O Model Simulations A. Impacts from operation of crude oil transmission pipelines Table 1 summarizes the impacts on GDP, labour income and jobs from operation of Canada’s crude oil transmission pipelines in 2012. The I-O Model simulation results suggest that GDP was boosted by an estimated $3.4 billion with almost half of the effect focused on Alberta, and a quarter in Saskatchewan. At $1.3 billion, the direct impact on GDP in Alberta was a bit more than half of the direct impacts in the country as a whole. In part, this is because the large crude oil transmission companies are headquartered there. About 43 per cent of the estimated $830 million impact on labour income was realized in Alberta, 23 per cent on Saskatchewan, and 14 per cent in Ontario. As with GDP, significant impacts occurred in all parts of Canada, but especially in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario. According to the Model, operation of the crude oil pipelines gave rise to more than 11,000 full- time equivalent jobs of which one-third were in Alberta, one-fifth in Saskatchewan and 16 per cent in Ontario. Table 1 – Economic Impacts from Operation of Crude Oil Transmission Pipelines Gross Domestic Product – Millions of 2012 $ BC AB SK MB ON QC Other Canada Direct 106.7 1,269.0 618.4 249.7 37.4 53.2 26.1 2,360.5 Indirect 51.8 298.4 169.6 56.6 108.5 40.5 10.6 736.0 Direct & Indirect 158.5 1,567.4 788.0 306.3 145.9 93.7 36.7 3,096.5 Induced 29.6 119.2 55.2 21.3 66.3 24.6 5.4 321.6 Total 188.1 1,686.6 843.2 327.6 212.2 118.3 42.1 3,418.1 Labour Income – Millions of 2012 $ BC AB SK MB ON QC Other Canada Direct 6.6 132.1 96.3 20.7 3.6 3.3 2.8 265.4 Indirect 33.3 172.2 72.1 33.9 72.8 25.1 6.6 416.0 Direct & Indirect 39.9 304.3 168.4 54.6 76.4 28.4 9.4 681.4 Induced 14.6 52.2 21.4 9.5 35.6 12.3 2.6 148.2 Total 54.5 356.5 189.8 64.1 112 40.7 12 829.6 Number of Full-time Equivalent Jobs BC AB SK MB ON QC Other Canada Direct 75 842 1,064 179 33 46 24 2,263 Indirect 574 2,011 1,173 624 1,164 451 113 6,110 Direct & Indirect 649 2,853 2,237 803 1,197 497 137 8,373 Induced 322 941 484 224 666 267 55 2,959 Total 971 3,794 2,721 1,027 1,863 764 192 11,332 2 THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM OPERATION OF CANADA’S ENERGY PIPELINES | OCTOBER 2013 B. Impacts from operation of crude oil and NGL transmission pipelines (combined) Table 2 summarizes the impacts on the three major economic indicators from operation of both crude oil and NGL transmission pipelines. The distribution of the effects is much the same as in the “crude oil alone” scenario with the main difference being that the overall impacts are a bit greater. The overall impact on GDP, for example, is $270 million greater – at $3.7 billion and labour income is boosted by an additional $65 million to total $895 million. In addition with NGL transmission included, the system supports approximately 12,000 full-time job equivalents – about 800 more than in the crude-oil-only scenario. In each case, the lion’s share of the incremental impacts occurs in Alberta. Table 2 – Economic Impacts from Operation of Crude Oil and NGL Transmission Pipelines Gross Domestic Product – Millions of 2012 $ BC AB SK MB ON QC Other Canada Direct 106.7 1,423.4 644.9 255.7 40.1 53.2 26.0 2,550.0 Indirect 54.2 331.5 177.2 58.4 117.1 42.9 11.2 792.5 Direct & Indirect 160.9 1,754.9 822.1 314.1 157.2 96.1 37.2 3,342.5 Induced 31.3 131.9 57.8 22.0 71.5 26.3 5.7 346.5 Total 192.2 1,886.8 879.9 336.1 228.7 122.4 42.9 3,689.0 Labour Income – Millions of 2012 $ BC AB SK MB ON QC Other Canada Direct 6.6 148.1 100.4 21.2 3.9 3.3 9.4 286.3 Indirect 34.7 191.3 75.3 35.0 78.7 26.6 41.6 448.5 Direct & Indirect 41.3 339.4 175.7 56.2 82.6 29.9 51 734.8 Induced 15.5 57.7 22.4 9.9 38.3 13.2 18.2 159.7 Total 56.8 397.1 198.1 66.1 120.9 43.1 69.2 894.5 Number of Full-time Equivalent Jobs BC AB SK MB ON QC Other Canada Direct 75 945 1,110 184 35 46 22 2,417 Indirect 600 2,231 1,226 643 1,257 476 120 6,553 Direct & Indirect 675 3,176 2,336 827 1,292 522 142 8,970 Induced 342 1,040 506 233 718 286 59 3,184 Total 1,017 4,216 2,842 1,060 2,010 808 201 12,154 3 THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM OPERATION OF CANADA’S ENERGY PIPELINES | OCTOBER 2013 Table 3 illustrates for each province, the industries where the jobs supported by operation of the oil and liquids transmission pipelines are concentrated. In almost every case, most of the jobs are in the transportation and warehousing industry classification, followed by finance, insurance and real estate; professional and technical services; and administration, waste management and remediation industries. Operation of these pipelines also supports a large number of positions in the wholesale and retail trade industries, especially in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Ontario. In both Ontario and Quebec, manufacturing industries account for a larger proportion of the total number of positions arising from operation of the pipelines than in the other provinces. Table 3 – Full-Time Equivalent Jobs from Crude Oil and NGL Pipeline Operation* QC ON MB SK AB BC NWT Canada Crop and animal production 12 22 10 19 24 14 0 103 Mining, quarrying, and oil & gas extraction 1 3 0 42 65 6 0 118 Utilities 6 15 43 115 205 16 1 402 Repair construction 47 31 57 217 206 119 9 687 Manufacturing 97 167 63 64 139 69 0 612 Wholesale trade 39 96 38 60 124 45 1 406 Retail trade 64 140 75 205 331 92 4 923 Transportation and warehousing 95 201 266 1,185 1,114 157 28 3,057 Information and cultural industries 29 78 26 50 83 28 2 301 Finance, insurance, real estate, & leasing 146 432 181 267 449 83 11 1,583 Professional, scientific & technical services 94 299 66 119 530 121 3 1,254 Administration & support, 74 293 105 187 412 102 5 1,204 waste management, & remediation Health care and social assistance 10 24 12 23 45 14 0 129 Arts, entertainment and recreation 14 24 10 20 49 18 0 137 Accommodation and food services 27 61 36 78 162 51 1 424 Other services (except public 28 62 32 86 126 39 1 378 administration) Non-profit institutions serving households 4 10 6 12 21 6 0 60 Government education services 3 10 5 15 20 5 0 58 Other municipal government services 6 15 14 33 43 12 1 125 Total 808 2,010 1,060 2,842 4,216 1,017 68 12,154 * Total values do not reflect the sum of individual cells as industries and jurisdictions with relatively minor jobs impacts have been omitted. Source: Statistics Canada natural gas transmission pipeline impact analysis, Table 2.9 4 THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM OPERATION OF CANADA’S ENERGY PIPELINES | OCTOBER 2013 C.
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