Bradford Council Retail and Leisure Study Report
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BRADFORD DISTRICT COUNCIL FINAL RETAIL AND LEISURE STUDY June 2008 Preface White Young Green Planning is a leading private planning consultancy who has considerable experience on advising local planning authorities in the UK on retail and leisure matters. Our breadth of advice ranges from assessment of town centre vitality and viability, the production of town centre actions plans, advising on retail hierarchies, estimations of retail or leisure need, assessment of the potential impact of such development on shopping centres and evening economies to the application of the sequential approach to site selection. White Young Green’s continuing involvement in providing retail planning advice to both the public and private sector has enabled us to gain a thorough understanding of the key issues that has helped formulate our methodology. Also our experience in dealing with the development industry on major and smaller town centre and out-of-centre development projects means that we are able to advise on best practice methods linked to securing regeneration and town centre development. i CONTENTS Page No 1 INTRODUCTION 1 2 CURRENT AND EMERGING RETAIL AND LEISURE TRENDS 3 3 PLANNING POLICY FRAMEWORK 13 4 ORIGINAL MARKET RESEARCH 19 5 ASSESSMENT OF VITALITY AND VIABILITY OF EXISTING CENTRES 23 6 SHOPPING PATTERNS WITHIN THE STUDY AREA 39 7 POPULATION AND EXPENDITURE 63 8 RETAIL CAPACITY ASSESSMENT AND THE ROLE OF EXISTING CENTRES 77 9 ROLE OF LOCAL CENTRES AND ACCESS TO RETAIL IN BRADFORD DISTRICT 120 10 LEISURE PROVISION AND CAPACITY WITHIN BRADFORD 129 11 PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR TOWN CENTRES 136 12 FUTURE STRATEGY FOR DISTRICT CENTRES 161 13 FUTURE STRATEGY FOR LOCAL CENTRES 166 14 FUTURE POLICY STRATEGY FOR LOCAL DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK 185 Figure Page Figure 4.1: Plan Indicating the Extent of the Bradford Study Area 20 Figure 6.1: Main Food Destinations in Each Survey Zone 40 Figure 6.2: Market Penetration of All Main Food Facilities in Bradford District 42 Figure 6.3: Market Penetration of All Top-Up Food Facilities in Bradford District 44 Figure 6.4: Top-Up Food Destinations by Survey Zone 45 Figure 6.5: Market Penetration of Non-Bulky Goods Shopping at Facilities in Bradford District 52 Figure 6.6: Market Penetration of Bulky Goods Shopping at Facilities in Bradford District 56 Figure 7.1: Comparative Market Shares by Zone 72 Figure 7.2: Primary Catchment Area for Main Food Shopping 73 Figure 7.3: Primary Catchment Area for Bulky Comparison Goods 73 Figure 7.4: Primary Catchment Area for Non-Bulky Comparison Goods 74 Figure 8.1: Breakdown of Turnover Between the Five Main Town Centres 118 Figure 9.1: Bradford District’s Network of Local Centres 122 Figure 9.2: Bradford District’s Network of Town and District Centres 124 Figure 9.3: Town, District Centre and Local Centres Network 126 ii Figure 9.4: Distribution of Main Food Destinations, Town, District and Local Centres 128 Figure 11.1: Bradford City Centre Redevelopment Opportunities 144 Figure 11.2: Bingley Town Centre Redevelopment Opportunities 149 Figure 11.3: Keighley Town Centre Redevelopment Opportunities 154 Figure 11.4: Shipley Town Centre Redevelopment Opportunities 158 Table Page Table 5.1: SWOT Analysis of Bradford 26 Table 5.2: SWOT Analysis of Keighley 28 Table 5.3: SWOT Analysis of Ilkley 29 Table 5.4: SWOT Analysis of Shipley 31 Table 5.5: SWOT Analysis of Bingley 32 Table 5.6: SWOT Analysis of Five Lane Ends District Council 33 Table 5.7: SWOT Analysis of Girlington District Council 34 Table 5.8: SWOT Analysis of Great Horton District Council 34 Table 5.9: SWOT Analysis of Greengates District Council 35 Table 5.10: SWOT Analysis of Mayo Avenue District Council 36 Table 5.11: SWOT Analysis of Thornbury District Council 36 Table 5.12: SWOT Analysis of Tong Street District Council 37 Table 5.13: Distribution of Retail, Services and Vacant Floorspace within Bradford’s Defined Centres 37 Table 7.1: Population by Survey Zone (2007 – 2022) 63 Table 7.2: Convenience Goods Expenditure Per Person Per Annum (2007 – 2022) 64 Table 7.3: Comparison Goods Expenditure Per Person Per Annum (2007 – 2022) 65 Table 7.4: Breakdown of Comparison Goods Expenditure Per Person within the Study Area 69 Table 7.5: Comparison of Retail Expenditure in ‘Bulky’ and Non-Bulky Goods (2007 – 2022) 69 Table 7.6: Bradford Current Market Shares (2007) 70 Table 7.7: Expenditure Available to Retail Facilities in Bradford 75 Table 7.8: Inflow from Outside Study Area 75 Table 8.1: Estimated ‘Capacity’ for Convenience Goods Facilities 79 Table 8.2: Estimated Available Comparison Goods Expenditure 79 Table 8.3: Trading Performance of Current Foodstores in Bradford City Centre 82 Table 8.4: Estimated ‘Capacity’ for Convenience Goods Facilities 83 Table 8.5 Quantitative Need for Additional Floorspace in Bradford 83 Table 8.6: Estimated Available Comparison Goods Expenditure 86 Table 8.7: Trading Performance of Current Foodstores in Bingley 92 Table 8.8: Estimated Capacity for Additional Convenience Goods Facilities 92 Table 8.9: Quantitative Need for Additional Floorspace in Bingley 93 iii Table 8.10: Estimated Available Comparison Goods Capacity 94 Table 8.11: Trading Performance of Current Foodstores in Ilkley 97 Table 8.12: Estimated Capacity for Additional Convenience Goods Facilities 98 Table 8.13: Estimated Available Comparison Goods Capacity 99 Table 8.14: Trading Performance of Current Foodstores in Keighley Town Centre 102 Table 8.15: Estimated Capacity for Additional Convenience Goods Facilities 103 Table 8.16: Quantitative Need for Additional Floorspace in Keighley 103 Table 8.17: Estimated Available Comparison Goods Capacity 105 Table 8.18: Estimated Available Bulky Goods Capacity 106 Table 8.19: Estimated Available Non-Bulky Goods Capacity 107 Table 8.20: Trading Performance of Current Foodstores in Shipley Centre 110 Table 8.21: Estimated Capacity for Additional Convenience Goods Facilities 111 Table 8.22: Quantitative Need for Additional Floorspace in Shipley 111 Table 8.23: Estimated Available Comparison Goods Capacity 113 Table 8.24: Potential Impact of Increased Special Forms of Trading (2007 – 2022) 116 Table 8.25: Hierarchy and Market Share of Main Centres within the District 117 Table 8.26: Summary of the Main Centres (2007) 119 Table 10.1: Leisure in Bradford 129 Table 11.1: Convenience Goods Planning Commitments 137 Table 11.2: Comparison Goods Planning Commitments 138 Appendices are under separate cover APPENDIX 1 - Survey Zone Plans APPENDIX 2 - NEMS Bradford Household Survey 2007 APPENDIX 3 - NEMS Bradford On Street Visitor Survey APPENDIX 4 - Bradford Business Survey Results APPENDIX 5 - Vitality and Viability Assessment of City Centre APPENDIX 6 - Vitality and Viability Assessment of Defined Town Centres APPENDIX 7 - Vitality and Viability Assessment of Defined District Centres APPENDIX 8 - Local Centre Assessment APPENDIX 9 - WYG Retail Modelling (Convenience Goods) APPENDIX 10 - WYG Retail Modelling (Comparison Goods) APPENDIX 11 - Bradford Penetration Maps APPENDIX 12 - Leisure Modelling APPENDIX 13 - Proposed Changes to Boundaries iv GLOSSARY O F T ERMS Capacity - Retail capacity in terms of this report refers to surplus/deficit of expenditure (£m) which represents the difference between the expenditure and turnover of the identified facilities. Study Area - This represents the household survey area, which is based on postal sectors. MapInfo (AnySite) - The database used to identify population, expenditure and socio- economic breakdown of the study area population. Comparison Goods - Comparison goods relate to items not obtained on a frequent basis, these include clothing, footwear, household and recreational goods (Table 3, Annex A, PPS6). Convenience Goods - Convenience goods relate to everyday essential items including confectionary, food, drinks, newspapers and magazines (Table 3, Annex A, PPS6). Expenditure per Capita - This is the average spend of each person within the defined study area on a variety of retail goods. Expenditure - Expenditure is calculated by taking the population within a defined area and then multiplying this figure by average annual expenditure levels for various forms of goods. Expenditure Forecasts - This assessment has been undertaken using the ‘goods based’ approach as prescribed in PPS6, the information on consumer retail expenditure forecasts have been derived from MapInfo (2007). Forecasts based on the anticipated increase in expenditure per annum for a both convenience and comparison goods as identified by MapInfo (+1.2% per annum (2005 to 2017) for convenience goods, +5.3% per annum (2006 to 2017) for comparison goods. Gross Floorspace - This represents the level of total floorspace or footprint of a specific development (i.e. sales area, storage, checkouts, café, display, etc). Net Floorspace - This entails the level of internal area devoted to the sale of goods. vi Market Share - Market shares derived from the household survey results, which are based on either the proportion of shopping trips or the proportion of expenditure attracted to a particular centre/facility. National Multiple - This is a retail or service operator which is or part of a network of nine or more outlets. Price Base - The price base for the study is 2005; all prices are or have been adjusted to 2005 in order to be consistent. Rates of Productivity - This takes into account the potential for existing retail floorspace to improve their turnover productivity (e.g. smaller goods could be sold from a smaller area for more money, increased opening hours, etc.). Sales Density - Retail capacity figures are expressed in term of floorspace, relying on the application of assumed sales density figures to the surplus expenditure identified. This is based on the typical turnover of a store by square metre/foot. Trade Draw - This refers to the level of trade attracted to a particular facility/ centre. Turnover - The turnover figure relates to the annual turnover generated by existing facilities. Prime A Rents - Zone A rents (the rental value of the first six metres depth of floorspace in retail outlets from the shop window).