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The Free Market LU~G January 1989 (._~ Volume VII Number 1 I INSTITUTE TheFree Market Keynesianism Redux by Murray N. Rothbard One of the ironic but unfortunately en.. during legacies of eight years of Reaganism has been the resurrection of Keynesianism. From the late 1930s until the early 1970s, Keynesianism rode high in the economics profession and in the corridors of power in Washington, promising that, so long as Keynesian economists continued at the helm, the blessings of modern mac.. roeconomics would surely bring us perma.. nent prosperity without inflation. Then something happened on the way to Eden: the mighty inflationary recession of 1973 .. 74. Keynesian doctrine is, despite its algebraic and geometric jargon, breathtakingly simple / { at its core: recessions are caused by under.. spending in the economy, inflation is caused by overspending. Of the two major catego.. ries ofspending, consumption is passive and determined, almost robotically, by income; hopes for the proper amount of spending, therefore, rest on investment, but private investors, while active and decidedly non.. robotic, are erratic and volatile, unreliably dependent on fluctuations in what Keynes called their "animal The Truth About Economic Forecasting spirits. " by Graeme B. Littler Fortunately for all of us, there is another group in the economy that is just as active and decisive as investors, but who Astrologers, palmists, and crystal..ball gazers are scorned are als()--.-if guided by Keynesian economists-scientific and while professional economists are heralded for their scientific rational, able to act in the interests of all: Big Daddy govern.. achievements. Yet the academics are no less mystical in trying ment. When investors and consumers underspend, govern.. to predict the direction ofinterest rates, economic growth, and ment can and should step in and increase social spending via the stock market. deficits, thereby lifting the economy out of recession. When Forty years ago, Thomas Dewey was defeated by Harry private animal spirits get too wild, government is supposed to Truman, stunning the political experts and journalists who step in and reduce private spending by what the Keynesians Continued on page 4 revealingly call "sopping up excess purchasing power" (that's ours). In strict theory, by the way, the Keynesians could just as well have called for lowering government spending during inflation.. Regulatory Attack on the Market ...•.. 2 ary booms rather than sopping up our spending. But the very What's in the Review . ......• , 5 idea of cutting government budgets (and I mean actual cut.. cuts, not cuts in the rate of increase) is nowadays just as The Mandated,Benefits Scheme 7 Continued on page 3 between the Japanese market and the Chicago Board ofTrade, From the President and inSeptember, between the London market and the Com... modity Futures Trading Commission. by Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr. As SEC Chairman David Ruder notes: "I find myself votin~ The Regulatory Attack more clearly for intervention...into all kinds of activities. " Except for 1934, when it banned all new stock issues at the on the Market behest of old... line firms and began to cartelize the securities industry, the SEC has never been more interventionist. As we know from economic theory, as well as the history of similar Ever since the October stock... market crash, government activities, such intervention will undermine the economic officials have demanded more control over the securities indus... functions of the stock and futures markets. try. As usual, their claim has been bolstered by "disinterested" scientific analysis by economists. In the academic world, most economists believe that the In its study, the Securities and Exchange Commission financial markets as a collective entity are all ... knowing-not blamed stock... index futures, and advocated higher margin only about present events but also about the future. The requirements and more regulatory powers for itself The New markets discount everything, so there can be no profits or losses York Stock Exchange's study condemned futures, especially through better or poorer forecasting, only through good or bad portfolio... insurance programs, and also advocated higher mar... luck. The markets are a giant gambling casino, with no real gins onstock... index futures and more enforcement authority for economic function. the SEC. The more accurate Austrian view sees securities markets as President Reagan's commission, headed by now...Treasury efficient, but also imperfect, functioning as they do in a world Secretary Nicholas Brady, implicated portfolio insurance, mu... of uncertainty. Within the division of labor, there are more tual fund redemptions, computers, and unchecked.price successful forecasters, and one function of the markets is to swings. It urged that the Federal Reserve be given supra... reg ... convey financial assets from the less efficient in this area to the ulatory powers over stocks, futures, and options, and that price more efficient. That the far...seeing profit while others do not controls ("circuit...breaker mechanisms") be instituted in case of serves an extraordinarily important economic purpose; it is not massive market movements. the Wall ... Street equivalent of Caesar's Palace. In accord with these domestic developments, Great Britain's The markets also must coordinate complex price relation... Wilton Park Group-composed of regulators from the ten ships among the many stages ofproduction over time. It is a job major industrialized countries--has called for global standards that no regulator can perform, no matter what his intentions or on insider trading, market shutdowns, and margin how many computers he has. requirements, plus increased sharing of confidential financial The price system is like a communications network that information. In April, the U. S. orchestrated an agreement transmits signals about possible profits and losses. Through this network, producers learn from consumers about how they value the various goods and services available, and therefore how best to make use of the available capital, land, and labor. These signals also affect the perceived outlook for company Dr. Murray N. Rothbard is the S.J. Hall distinguished profits, and therefore stock prices. Entrepreneurs respond to professor of economics at the University of Nevada, Las the signals by trying to outcompete their rivals in better meet... Vegas, and vice president for academic affairs of the ing consumer demand, and thereby reap higher profits. But this Ludwig von Mises Institute. communications network can only be sensitive to consumer Dr. Graeme B. Littler is scholar in residence at the Ludwig desires, and therefore transmit undistorted signals, when it is von Mises Institute's Lawrence Fertig Student Center. free and open. Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr., is founder and president ofthe Prices--especially in the stock andfutures markets--must be Ludwig von Mises Institute. allowed to reflect real market conditions. Higher stock prices, Jeffrey A. Tucker, a graduate student in economics at for example, signal that more capital can be raised for a par... George Mason University, is managing editor of the Free ticular industry or firm, and that its output can be expanded. Market. Lower stock prices show us the less desired industries and firms, and lead to the shifting of resources into more productive Sheldon L. Richman, an adjunct scholar of the Ludwig endeavors. von Mises Institute, is director of public affairs for the Institute for Humane Studies at George Mason Universi... Consumers can change their subjective valuations of goods ty. and services because of their expectations about the future, their preference for a new product over an old, or simply 2 changing tastes. Regardless, economic efficiency requires a Evidently, the "cyclically balanced budget" was the first price system that can accurately reflect· these adjustments in Keynesian concept to be poured down the Orwellian memory changes of value on the markets. hole, as it became clear that there weren't going to be any Only the unhampered market allows entrepreneurs effi.. surpluses, just smaller or larger deficits. A subtle but important ciently to meet and even anticipate consumer preferences. In corrective came into Keynesianism: larger deficits during reces.. the frozen world ofgovernment econometric models, all possi.. sians, smaller ones during booms. ble economic data, present and future, is known. There is no But the real slayer of Keynesianism came with the double.. experimentation, creativity, or discovery. All consumer prices digit inflationary recession of 1973 .. 74, followed soon by the are determined by the costs ofproduction---rather than supply even more intense inflationary recessions of 1979.. 80 and and demand-and the prices of capital are "given." It is not 1981 ..82. For if the government were supposed to step on the surprising that these models show no ill effects from regulation. spending accelerator during recessions, and step on the brakes In the real markets, the prices that consumers are willing to during booms, what in blazes is it going to do if there is a steep pay determine every price through the many stages of produc~ recession (with unemployment and bankruptcies) and a sharp tion. This "imputation" process, which enables entrepreneurs inflation at the same time? What can Keynesianism say? Step on to build the long..term production processes characteristic ofan both accelerator and brake at the same time? The stark fact
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