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Home , Brook Lopez, Dwight Howard, Kevin Love, Roy Hibbert

投稿類：英文寫作類

篇名：

A Probe into the Dying Out of Traditional NBA Centers

作者：

劉宣佑。臺北市立南湖高級中學。高二 5 班

指導老師：賴亦歆老師 A Probe Into How Traditional NBA Centers Are Dying Out I. Introduction

1. Research Motivation

I’ve always loved watching the NBA, and throughout these years of watching, I’ve noticed the changes in the shot selection attempted by the NBA. According to -Reference.com (https://www.basketball-reference.com/), an official stat partner of the NBA, more and more three- pointers are being attempted as the years go by. Stats and analytics showed how NBA offenses can be more efficient without the post play of traditional centers. In this study, I want to find out why traditional post-play centers are dying out by comparing different players’ stats and also to analyze how players could leave a bigger impact by changing their playstyle.

2. Research Purpose

The central purpose of this paper is to find out why traditional centers in the NBA are dying out. The paper also aims to analyze the difference between traditional post-up centers and shooting centers.

3. Methodology

To explore why the or “big man” position is dying in the NBA, my research will be done by analyzing statistics on Basketball-Reference.com and inspecting the differences between traditional post-up centers and shooting centers.

4. Research Structure

5. Definition of Key Terms

Post-up/ Post play: To take up a position against a defender with their backs to the basket. Traditional post-up centers: Centers who play with their backs to the basket. This means they score near the basket, receive a pass, and then make a move to score a basket. 1 A Probe Into How Traditional NBA Centers Are Dying Out Shooting Centers: Centers who have the ability to shoot from the three- line and score.

II. Body

1. The Rise of Statistics and in the NBA

Throughout the 74 years of NBA basketball, the league and the sport have constantly changed. Since the NBA introduced the three-point shot in 1979, there have been 41 seasons with statistics on the three-point shot that have been recorded. According to Official NBA Statistics (https://www.nba.com/stats/), as the years pass by, the average attempts of the three-point shot have risen constantly, from 2.8 attempts per game in 1979 to 34.1 per game in 2020. As the attempts of threes have gone up throughout the years, the post up is decreasing (Ziller, 2017). Kirk Goldsberry, an ESPN staff writer, and NBA analyst, states that: ”Not only has the analytics era (2016-Today) of the NBA dramatically reshaped shot selection across the league, but shooting is by far the most important component of winning games.” (Goldsberry, 2019). Official NBA Statistics show that in the 2015-16 season, the highest frequency of the post up play is 52.2% by Nikola Pekovic, who is now out of the league because of not having a reliable three-point shot, while in the 2019- 2020 season, the highest frequency is only 36.6% by . If we go back even further, in the 1998-1999 season, roughly 21 years from now, the post up rate then was 88.9%, making the post up rate now a huge drop, which is 4.7%. With more efficient and quicker shots taken in the NBA, the pace of each game (an estimate of possessions per NBA game) has risen significantly (Kram, 2019). In the 2015-2016 NBA season, the pace of each game is 95.8, yet in the 2019-2020 season, the pace is 100.3 per game. There have been significant changes through these years; the rise of statistics in the last five years and teams being more efficient on offense has drastically changed the shot selection and has also affected traditional post-up centers (Bogage, 2018).

2. The Impact of Centers of Different Playstyles

There are now two major kinds of centers in today’s NBA, modern shooting centers and traditional post-up centers. The two different types of centers have very different impacts on their teams. The PPG (Points Per Game), FG% ( Percentage) which means the percentage of a teams or player’s made shots during the game, 3PT% (Three Point Percentage), these data of post-up centers and shooting centers have been collected and presented in the following Chart 1.

Chart 1: Comparison of the Impact between Centers of Different Playstyles

(Chart 1 Made by myself, information from Basketball-Reference.com)

2.1 Three examples of traditional post-up centers: , , and . 2 A Probe Into How Traditional NBA Centers Are Dying Out

Brook Lopez was a post-up star in Brooklyn earlier in his career, earning an all-star honor in 2013. In his first eight seasons, from 2008 to 2016, he has attempted a total of 31 three-pointers. But starting from 2016 until now, he has attempted a total of 1549 three-pointers. Brook Lopez has changed his game throughout his career, changing his playstyle from a post-up center to a center that can shoot three-pointers, which also helped him in surviving in the league.

Dwight Howard was the number one pick in the 2004 NBA Draft, and in the early stages of his career, he was an eight-time all-star, three-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year. Yet as the years passed by and the importance of analytics rose, Dwight Howard refused to change his playstyle to a more modern way; instead, he insisted on his post-up offense and did not adapt to more three-point shooting. According to Chart 1, he has only attempted 68 three-pointers throughout his 16-year career, with only about 4.25 three-pointers attempted per season. Dwight Howard has now changed five teams in five years.

Roy Hibbert has been a two-time all-star and a major piece for the back in 2011- 2014. His lack of the ability to shoot has always been his problem and causing him to be unable to take his team over the hump. He also refused to adapt as the years went by and could not shoot beyond the three-point arc. Throughout his 10-year career, he has only attempted 24 three-pointers, as presented in Chart 1, which ultimately caused him to completely disappear from the league because of his inability to shoot.

2.2 Two examples of shooting centers: and .

Kevin Love has always been a player that can shoot the ball well. In his twelve seasons, he is a five-time all-star, 2010-11 Most Improved Player, and 2016 NBA Champion. According to Chart 1, he has attempted a total of 3302 three-pointers while shooting 37%, a very impressive stat. His ability to shoot three-pointers helped provide better scoring opportunities and a more efficient offense. As the volume of three-point attempts and the importance of the three-pointer rose, Kevin Love has become a very valuable player and has also earned himself an NBA championship.

Anthony Davis is a superstar. He is a eight-time all-star, all-star game MVP, and NBA Champion, just in 8 seasons. In the eight seasons, he has attempted 794 three-pointers while shooting about 32% as stated in Chart 1. Being the best big man in the league, Davis has gradually increased his three- point attempts every single year, attempting a career-high of 218 shots this season. His impact of being able to shoot and providing more scoring opportunities helped the Lakers to win the 2020 NBA Championship.

2.3 Comparison of Traditional Post-Up Centers and Shooting Centers

As the importance of statistics and analytics rose throughout the last few years, there have been trends that traditional centers are dying out in the NBA while centers that can shoot are having more and more important roles (Macmullen & Goldsberry, 2020). From the statistics of Points Per Game (PPG) in Chart 1, it can be stated that shooting centers in the league score more points when compared to post up centers. As for some centers such as Brook Lopez, who changed his playstyle from post up to shooting three-pointers, his improved three-point percentage and attempts have risen and 3 A Probe Into How Traditional NBA Centers Are Dying Out impacted his team and career positively. Also, from Chart 1, traditional post centers generally have a higher Field Goal% than shooting centers, but when comparing their Points Per Game, Kevin Love and Anthony Davis score more than Dwight Howard and Roy Hibbert. Therefore, it can also be clearly inferred that centers who can shoot the three ball well and have a high three-point percentage, can score more points and be stated as more valuable and impactful than post up centers.

3. Contracts given out: Post-up centers & Shooting centers

As the league slowly shifts to more shooting, contracts given out to centers of different play styles have slowly changed. Shooting centers nowadays tend to receive bigger contracts when compared to post up centers.

3.1 The Contracts to Post-Up Centers: Brook Lopez, Dwight Howard, and Roy Hibbert

Brook Lopez at the beginning of his career was a post-up center. As the importance of statistics rose throughout the years, he started to change his playstyle to a shooting center. As a result, he has had a relatively smooth career with consistent salary and positive impact on his team. The contracts of Brook Lopez are presented in Chart 2.

Chart 2: The Contracts to Brook Lopez

(Chart 2 Made by myself, information from Basketball-Reference.com)

According to Basketball Reference.com, Dwight Howard has been a post-up center for his whole career. In his prime, with the post up playstyle still considered efficient in the league, his salary was 23,500,000. Yet in the 2019-20 NBA season, his salary is $2,564,753, a huge drop off since the rise of statistics and efficiency. The contracts of Dwight Howard are presented in Chart 3.

4 A Probe Into How Traditional NBA Centers Are Dying Out Chart 3: The Contracts to Dwight Howard

(Chart 3 Made by myself, information from Basketball-Reference.com)

Roy Hibbert, another post-up center, has made a total of $15,500,000 in the 2015-16 season before the rise of statistics and efficiency. Yet just after two seasons, Roy Hibbert was out of the league just because of not being able to shoot. The contracts of Roy Hibbert are presented in Chart 4.

Chart 4: The Contracts to Roy Hibbert

(Chart 4 Made by myself, information from Basketball-Reference.com)

3.2 The Contracts to Shooting Centers: Kevin Love and Anthony Davis

Throughout Kevin Love’s whole career, he has always been a player that could shoot beyond the arc. This ability has also allowed him to always receive decent contracts and even superstar level contracts. Since the start of his fifth season, which is when he has finished his rookie contract and is eligible to sign for bigger money, his salary has always been above $13,668,750, and in his current

5 A Probe Into How Traditional NBA Centers Are Dying Out contract, he is paid in the range of 28-30 million per year, a huge difference when compared to post- up centers. The contracts of Kevin Love are presented in Chart 5.

Chart 5: The Contracts to Kevin Love

(Chart 5 Made by myself, information from Basketball-Reference.com)

Superstar and MVP Anthony Davis is a player that excels in all parts, including shooting as a big man. His all-around play and shooting ability has made him into a superstar, with him also receiving superstar-type contracts. Starting from his fifth season Anthony Davis has had salaries over 22 million every single season and has also signed a five-year, 190 million dollar in total contract in 2020, with an average salary of 37.4 million dollars per season. The contracts of Anthony Davis are presented in Chart 6.

Chart 6: The Contracts to Anthony Davis

(Chart 6 Made by myself, information from Basketball-Reference.com)

6 A Probe Into How Traditional NBA Centers Are Dying Out 3.3 Comparing the contracts of Post-up centers and Shooting centers

To compare and analyze the data of both traditional post-up centers and shooting centers, the comparisons of the two kinds of centers are presented in the following Figure 1.

(Figure 1 Made by myself, information from Basketball-Reference.com) Figure 1: Contracts given out: Post-up centers & Shooting centers

The ability to shoot three-pointers will drastically change a player’s salary. Take Brook Lopez as an example. He started his career as a post-up center but later on changed his playstyle to attempt more three pointers and improved his three-point percentage. Through Figure 1 it can be inferred that the salary line for Brook Lopez went down a few years ago but after he changed his playstyle he is now earning consistent salary. It can also be inferred that as time goes by and the importance of statistics and three-pointers rose, the contracts of shooting centers and traditional post-up centers have been very different. According to Figure 1, the salary line of shooting centers continues to rise throughout the years while traditional post-up centers have very low salary line or are even out of the league. In other words, shooting centers have a significant advantage over their contracts, with centers that can shoot or attempt three-pointers like Anthony Davis and Kevin Love earning more when compared to traditional post-up centers such as Brook Lopez, Dwight Howard, Roy Hibbert. Therefore, shooting centers are seen as more valuable than post up centers in the NBA.

4. Average Height & Weight

With the pace of the league and the three-point attempts rising in the last five years, the average height and weight have also had major changes (Goldsberry, 2019). With a faster pace, players are required to run up and down the court more than ever and even faster. It would also result in traditional centers not able to keep up with the speed of the game because of their physiques being taller and weighing more when compared to other positions (Calle, 2020).

4.1 The Decline of Average Height in Recent Years

7 A Probe Into How Traditional NBA Centers Are Dying Out According to official NBA statistics, the average height of the NBA was 6 foot 7 in 2010, yet as the importance of statistics and analytics rose, the average height for the 2019-2020 season is 6 foot 6. It can be inferred that traditional centers in the NBA have started to be eliminated because of their inability to keep up with the pace of the game and not being able to shoot threes. Through analyzing all 69 seasons of the NBA, the results have shown that the average NBA player has never been shorter over the last 39 seasons. Also, in the 2019-2020 NBA season, “72% of the league is under 6’9’’ tall, most over the past 40 seasons.” (Kier, 2012).

4.2 The Decline of Average Weight in Recent Years

Only 38% of NBA players today are considered overweight (BMI>25), the lowest over the past 15 years. NBA players are also the lightest they’ve been in the 21st century. The average weight of an NBA player this season is 216 lbs. The weight of the league has dropped about three pounds steadily since 2013.

With the average height of the league falling due to the game being quicker and having a faster average pace. It is obvious that NBA teams have gravitated towards efficiency over the last five years. Teams and players are slimming down and using their athletic advantages to outrun the opposing teams, which also results in taller heavier centers who are too slow to keep up with the pace of the game being eliminated from the NBA (Telander,2020).

III. Conclusion

1.The rise of statistics in the last five years and teams emphasizing more efficiency on offense has drastically changed the shot selection throughout the league and has also caused the dying out of traditional post-up centers.

2.Through comparison, shooting centers in the league can be concluded as more valuable and impactful when compared to post up centers.

3.Through comparison, shooting centers nowadays receive bigger contracts than post up centers.

4.NBA centers who are becoming too slow and too heavy to keep up with the pace of a NBA game are being ruled out of the league.

IV. References

1. Rick Telander. (2020). The Opening Tip. SLAM, 228, 11-12

2. Franklyn Calle. (2020). HOT. SLAM, 225, 27-32

3.Tom Ziller. (2017). The center position in the NBA is dying. SBNATION. Retrieved on January 29, 2021, from https://reurl.cc/Q7ZEXZ

8 A Probe Into How Traditional NBA Centers Are Dying Out 4.Zach Kram. (2019). The Post-up is Deader than dead in the NBA. The Ringer. Retrieved on January 29, 2021, from https://reurl.cc/R6yeWg

5.Spencer Kier. (2012). The Death of the Traditional Big Man in the Evolving NBA Landscape. Bleacher Report. Retrieved on January 29, 2021, from https://reurl.cc/dVmyny

6.Jacob Bogage. (2018). Traditional big men, nearly extinct in the NBA, nevertheless pack the 2018 draft class. Chicago Tribune. Retrieved on January 29, 2021, from https://reurl.cc/WEvNx9

7.Jackie MacMullen and Kirk Goldsberry. (2020). From to Joel Embiid: The fight to modernize he NBA big man. Retrieved on January 29, 2021, from https://reurl.cc/ZQyVVW

8.NBA. (2021). NBA Advanced Stats. Retrieved on March 6, 2021, from https://reurl.cc/Ag2zoE

9.Kirk Goldsberry. (2019). The NBA is obsessed with 3s, so let's finally fix the thing. abc7News. Retrieved on March 6, 2021, from https://reurl.cc/MZjGn3

10.Basketball-Reference.com — Basketball Statistics and History. Retrieved on March 6, 2021, from https://reurl.cc/bzYyZd

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