2015 NFL Draft Scouting Report: QB Taylor Heinicke, Old Dominion

2015 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

JANUARY 27, 2015

*Our QB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

If you only watch select tape of Taylor Heinicke, you could fall in love quickly. If in the back of your mind you know him as the guy who threw for a record-setting 730 yards in a game in 2012 (had 791 total yards), and then you watched the select tape—you could really fall in love.

“What’s the big deal about the 'select' tape,” you ask?

Heinicke is almost picture perfect in the pocket. If you like traditional pocket passers, then you are going to like Heinicke. I would say he’s one of the best-looking pocket passers from snap to pre-throw in the 2015 NFL Draft, right up there with Oregon State QB Sean Mannion. Both Heinicke and Mannion have ballroom dancer grace taking a 3-5+ step drop in the pocket. Their feet are nimble. Their body is perfectly aligned as they scan the field. When they hit their stop point in a drop back it’s a smooth, balanced, bounce with their legs. It’s either tremendous coaching or work ethic or natural gifts…or a combo of all three.

To me, Heinicke goes Mannion one better. Whereas Mannion has an odd, elongated release of the ball (with a fairly strong arm), Heinicke has a more compact, picturesque release. All I could think of is Jimmy Garoppolo as I watched Heinicke at work.

I stopped thinking about a Heinicke-Garoppolo comp after witnessing Heinicke’s pocket balance, fearlessness, and ball release. Why? Because Jimmy Garoppolo was an assassin with his arm and vision—destroying FCS competition, and then also smoking D1 foes with his lesser-talented Eastern Illinois mates. Heinicke crushes lesser competition, but then gets gobbled up when the competition- level elevates…and I’ll prove that statistically in the next section.

To try to summarize my negative scouting feelings for Heinicke, as a next-level passer, I would say the following: The problem with Heinicke for the next-level is (besides his small physical stature) is that I see a huge flaw when he reads the opposing defenses—good defenses.

Heinicke will shred you apart if you are sitting in a prevent defense, or if you have inferior defensive talent in general. He has humiliated the likes of New Hampshire (in 2012, when he set several NCAA records), and Campbell, and Rhode Island, and Howard, etc.—he is too good for those teams. He’s a super-smart, meticulous QB.

Where the problem comes in…is against ACC, Big East, and the better Conference USA teams. Heinicke drops back to pass and will read the defense (which is a ‘+’ because many college QBs have one-read

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2015 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

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ability only)…however, I’m not sure exactly what he is seeing--because against better defensive units, I will observe Heinicke scan off his first option, find the second option and fire it to an un-open WR, into traffic…inexplicably—as if he could not see the defense at all. When you really study him you see most of his success is coming from timing plays—back shoulder throws, etc. He’s a master at that. However, he is playing more of a chess/guessing game pre-snap than he is reading multiple options and always finding the proper choice. In 2014, he had four picks in a game against conference winner Louisiana Tech (in a win). Three picks in a bad loss to 8-5 Western Kentucky. He had two picks at Western Kentucky…and two interceptions in their opening game vs. Hampton.

Heinicke is a savvy, hard-working, unafraid QB…who is just not that great a passing prospect for the next level when the defenders get bigger and faster…and smarter. He doesn’t have the arm-strength per se, but really it’s more a lack of next-level instincts—which is hard to describe, but I’ll try…

Heinicke is like a great college basketball three-point shooter, who is undersized and not all that athletic…but is a lights out shooter for sure. The other team puts their best defenders on him and builds a strategy to stop him from burying ‘threes’, but try as they might, most teams still yield 20+ points to the ‘marksman’. The guy just grinds and finds ways to get open, and his team is built to set him up. However, then there are the games where his team faces top competition, long-armed defenders—a Kansas or Louisville. Suddenly, the three-point god cannot get open. When he gets a sliver of daylight, he shoots before he is fully set up with a long arm lancing toward him. He goes 3 of 14 shooting. He’s still a great college basketball player as a whole, but he does not translate to similar success in the NBA. He’s not gifted enough. He might have been an all-timer in college, but he’s not got the ‘it’ factor for the pros.

I think that’s where Heinicke is. He’s a terrific, hard-working, savvy small-school QB who squeezes everything he can out of his arm/body but facing the next-level of competition—it’s not going to work as well.

Heinicke reminds me a little of Wyoming QB prospect Brett Smith last year. Smith was a celebrated QB prospect…a top-5 guy initially for both ESPN and CBS if I recall. I scouted him in January 2014 and went ballistic that people had him rated so highly. The national draft analysts would have thought me a fool. Smith didn’t get an NFL Combine invite, and thus he was #1 on everyone’ NFL Combine ‘snub list’. He was a terrific QB for Wyoming, but just too small and too weak of arm to make it to the next level. Still, it doesn’t take away from the fact that he was a great college QB. Smith was never drafted, nor did he make a practice squad last season. I would say Heinicke is a superior QB to Smith, but not so much so that a comparison isn’t warranted.

That being said, I still believe Heinicke shows enough that he can grind his way into sticking in the NFL. I think he could be an excellent backup for NFL teams who have garbage as a backup currently/usually. We don’t see him as a future star, but I would prefer Heinicke to a number of current NFL backup QBs. My main point is that Heinicke does not have the characteristics of a future NFL starting QB.

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The character and work ethic are there for sure. The ‘it’ factor to be one of 32 starters in the NFL…that’s not there.

Taylor Heinicke, Through the Lens of Our QB Scouting Algorithm:

Our computer scouting models isolated on four of the ‘toughest’ matchups for Heinicke in 2014: Louisiana Tech (9-5), Marshall (13-1), at Vanderbilt of the SEC, and at NC State of the ACC. In these four difficult games, Heinicke averaged: 63.3% Comp. Pct., 238.0 passing yards and 1.75 TD/1.75 INT per game.

Heinicke got an invite to the East-West College All-Star game: He went 2 of 9 passing with 14 yards and an interception.

I just do not like what I see on tape, or on paper with Heinicke against advanced opponents.

His 2013 was better than his 2014. In 2013, which was Old Dominion’s first season in D1, he compiled a 70.0% Comp. Pct. with 33 TD/8 INT…which are stellar numbers. However, in a closer look, you’ll see his 2013 was a tale of two seasons…

25 TD/2 INT vs. the likes of Campbell, Idaho, Rhode Island, Norfolk State, Albany, Citadel, and Howard…and a 6-0 record.

3 TD/4 INT vs. UNC, Pitt, and Maryland…and a 0-3 record…with a lower 53.8% Comp. Pct.

Their loss to North Carolina to end the 2013 season, the final score was: 80-20.

You might think, “We’d expect ODU/Heinicke to get worked by bigger D1 teams.” There is some truth to that, but you usually see ‘next-level’ QBs as at least plausible against bigger opponents…maybe even getting a shock win. No such signature moment with Heinicke.

His 2012 was special with him winning FCS Offensive Player of the Year (Walter Payton Award), and setting records in that game against New Hampshire, but there have been many QBs who blew through D2 or FCS, and still were not decent translations to the NFL.

If I wanted to overlook the tape issue I saw on his sketchy ability to read defenses against higher competition, and if I wanted to overlook stats being racked against inferior opponents…I’d also have to overlook his smaller NFL stature: barely over 6’0” tall and right around 200-pounds by most accounts. That’s just not an NFL body. It’s a body that has an average arm-strength when everything is perfect, and below-average under duress. He has fast-feet and escape-ability but looks like a high schooler compared to 6’3”, 300-pound DTs who maul him.

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Heinicke has the heart and work ethic to ‘make it’. We just don’t see the body or arm, or statistical evidence that we could fully endorse him for the NFL as a starter.

The Historical QB Prospects to Whom Taylor Heinicke Most Compares Within Our System:

One of the first NFL QBs, who I thought of as a visual comparison to Heinicke was Chase Daniel, and the computer agrees in all accounts—size and talent-wise. I would say Heinicke is a more mobile, better QB all-around than Chase Daniel as well. If you want a quick comparison that is it: Heinicke is a faster, better Chase Daniel—which means possibly NFL-worthy.

QB- Last Yr College H W Adj Adj Adj Adj Grade Comp Yds per Pass Pass Pct Comp per TD Per INT 4.906 Heinicke, Taylor 2015 Old Dominion 72.4 198 63.8% 11.6 15.1 27.9 4.644 Daniel, Chase 2009 Missouri 72.0 218 69.6% 10.7 16.1 27.9 -0.825 Gradkowski, Bruce 2006 Toledo 73.3 217 59.9% 12.8 10.8 20.4 0.478 Chapple, Colton 2013 Harvard 72.1 196 61.1% 12.5 15.4 24.7 4.388 Moore, Kellen 2012 Boise State 71.5 195 73.1% 11.4 11.5 35.1 3.686 Doege, Seth 2013 Texas Tech 73.1 200 67.9% 11.0 16.9 26.8 5.283 Hall, Max 2010 BYU 72.6 209 62.8% 11.9 14.9 23.8

*’LJax rating’ – new for 2015, as we re-do our grading systems to better identify/reward the spread offense QB prospects…looking for the runner-passer talents. **“Adj” = A view of adjusted college output in our system…adjusted for strength of opponent. ***A score of 8.5+ is where we see a stronger correlation of QBs going on to become NFL good-to- great. A scouting score of 9.5+ is rarefied air—higher potential for becoming great-to-elite. QBs scoring 6.0–8.0 are finding more success in the new passing era of the NFL (2014–on). Depending upon the system and surrounding weapons, a 6.0–8.0 rated QB can do fine in today’s NFL—with the right circumstances…but they are not ‘the next Tom Brady’ guys, just NFL-useful guys.

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2015 NFL Draft Outlook:

It’s not improbable that Heinicke gets drafted in the 7th-round; he probably should. He has so much of what you want in an NFL QB…and a lot of what you love in a backup NFL QB. He’s got the mind. He’s got the character. He has fast feet. He’s coachable. For some teams, he’s worth a look. He’s worth a 3rd- string spot for sure (if you check out some of the empty names most teams have as a 3rd-QB), as long as his team is seeing the move to take him as just that—an emergency QB. There are enough positives that I foresee him going in the 7th-round.

If I were an NFL GM, I could not make this pick because I would be looking for developmental QBs who I thought COULD be a future franchise QB. Heinicke has a role, a spot in the NFL…it’s just not as a future franchise QB. So, for that reason, I’d pass on him.

NFL Outlook:

His best-case scenario is a 7th-round pick to a team with bad QBs already in place. He sticks on the practice squad and grinds his way to backup within a couple of years…and then waits for a chance in an emergency situation. He might even impress as a spot starter with his scrappy play, but in the end…there is no fairy-tale ending. He does not live happily ever after as a successful franchise QB.

I hope I am wrong because Heinicke appears to be a quality person and employee. I’m rooting for him, but not betting on it.

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