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La Saison Des Choix R APPORT DU FEMISE sur le partenariat eurO-MeDiterraneen2012 LA SAISON DES CHOIX Illustration de Alain Soucasse Coordinateurs Ahmed Galal, Economic Research Forum, Egypte Jean-Louis Reiffers, Institut de la Méditerranée, France Novembre 2012 Ce rapport a été élaboré avec le soutien financier de l’Union Européenne. Le contenu de la publication relève de la seule responsabilité des auteurs et ne peut en aucun cas être considéré comme reflétant l’opinion de l’Union Européenne. RAPPO RT DU FEMISE SUR LE partenariat euro-mediterraneen LA SAISON DES CHOIX Ahmed Galal, Economic Research Forum, Egypte Jean-Louis Reiffers, Institut de la Méditerranée, France Coordonnateurs Novembre 2012 Ce rapport a été élaboré avec le soutien financier de l’Union Européenne. Le contenu de la publication relève de la seule responsabilité des auteurs et ne peut en aucun cas être considéré comme reflétant l’opinion de l’Union Européenne. -i- -ii- rapport du femise sur le partenariat euro-mediterraneen LA SAISON DES CHOIX Novembre 2012 Ce rapport a été dirigé par le Professeur Jean-Louis Reiffers(President du Comité Scientifique du FEMISE, Euromed Manage- ment/Kedge Business School, Professor Emérite USTV). Contributions, par ordre alphabétique: Pr. Lahcen Achy (INSEA, Maroc). Pr. Patricia Augier (Aix-Marseille University, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, CNRS & EHESS, Directeur adjoint Comité Scientifique du FEMISE). Dr. Frédéric Blanc (Directeur Général du FEMISE, Institut de la Méditerranée) Dr. Hoda Selim (Economiste FEMISE, ERF). Dr. Constantin Tsakas(Economiste FEMISE, Institut de la Méditerranée). Mise en page Dr. Constantin Tsakas. Couverture : Illustration Alain Soucasse “Vitrail pour le Caribou Corse”. -iii- Novembre 2012 Membres du Steering Committee : Ahmed GALAL Economic Research Forum Egypte Jean-Louis REIFFERS Institut de la Méditerranée France Nuhad ABDALLAH Academic Unit for Scientific Research ( AUSR) Syrie Lahcen ACHY INSEA Maroc Bruno AMOROSO Federico Caffe Center Roskilde University Danemark Slimane BEDRANI CREAD Algérie Mongi BOUGHZALA Université de Tunis El Manar Tunisie Mahmoud EL JAFARI Al Quds University of Jerusalem Palestine Anna Maria FERRAGINA CELPE, University of Salermo Italie Michael GASIOREK Sussex University Royaume Uni Ahmed GHONEIM Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences - Cairo University Egypte John GRECH Competitive Malta Malte Omar HAMARNEH Royal Scientific Society Jordanie Alejandro LORCA CORRONS Universidad Autonoma de Madrid Espagne Samir MAKDISI Institute of Financial Economics Am. Univ. in Beirut Liban Tuomo MELASUO University of Tampere TAPRI Finlande Jan MICHALEK Department of Economics Université de Varsovie Pologne Bernard PARANQUE Euromed Management / Kedge - CEMM France Khalid SEKKAT Université Libre de Bruxelles Belgique Alfred STEINHERR DIW Allemagne Subidey TOGAN Bilkent University Turquie Alfred TOVIAS Leonard Davis Institute of International Relations Israël -iv- TAS BLE DE MATIERES Première partie LA SAISON DES CHOIX . p .1 Chapitre 1. défis à court terme et stabilité à long terme . p .11 I. Les économies du Printemps arabe : deux ans plus tard ............................................p.12 II. Un manque de croissance inclusive qui pénalise le développement à long terme ......................p.26 III. Recommandations : Être à la hauteur des enjeux grâce à l’innovation, l’inclusion et le rôle actif de la communauté internationale ...................................................p.30 Chapitre 2. le long processus d’affranchissement du régime autoritaire . p .37 I. Introduction ................................................................................p.37 II. Le modèle de contrat autoritaire .............................................................p.37 III. Le démantèlement du modèle autoritaire. p.39 IV. L’émergence de nouvelles forces sociales .......................................................p.42 V. Conclusions ................................................................................p.50 Chapitre 3 . poursuivre le processus d’ouverture avec discernement . p .55 I. Une ouverture aux échanges au-delà du trend mondial ............................................p.55 II. L’effort d’ouverture a-t-il payé .? . .p.66 III. L’évolution des échanges entre l’EU et les Pays Méditerranéens : une dégradation du solde commercial moins accentuée avec l’UE qu’avec l’ensemble des partenaires .....................p.71 IV. Pourquoi et comment poursuivre l’ouverture ? ..................................................p.77 V. Recommandations. p.86 Annexes . p .91 références . p .93 deuxième partie - situation détaillée des pm : fiches pays . p .99 -v- -vi- LA SAISON DES CHOIX à développer l’initiative privée et l’innovation, à transformer les pratiques étatiques, a reproduit INTRODUCTION l’authoritarian bargain sous des formes différentes mais avec une constante : une faible participation Les enjeux fondamentaux de la transition dans les des populations jeunes et féminines et le dévelop- pays arabes sont désormais bien identifiés dans leur pement de fortes inégalités. Et c’est clairement ces globalité [1]. Il s’agit d’opérer une transformation formes que les populations arabes refusent au- profonde du contrat social qui a lié les dirigeants à jourd’hui au risque d’une dégradation sensible de la société civile dans ces pays. L’authoritarian bar- leur bien être économique. gain model fut au cœur de ce contrat. Il repose sur un accord implicite entre les régimes au pouvoir et Lorsqu’il s’agissait de consolider une identité natio- la population qui renonce à sa liberté politique et à nale après les indépendances, l’intervention lourde sa participation aux décisions en échange de biens des Etats était acceptée par la population, d’une publics et de bénéfices économiques. Il a été mis part, parce qu’elle reposait sur une forte poussée en place dès les indépendances. Son but était de nationaliste, d’autre part, parce qu’elle offrait les conforter l’identité des sociétés grâce à un modèle biens collectifs indispensables. Cependant, elle a de croissance autocentré fondé sur le contrôle des généré rapidement un système de rentes au béné- ressources naturelles, des politiques structurelles fice d’entreprises publiques situées dans des posi- lourdes appuyées par des dispositifs de planifica- tions de monopole, donc inefficaces (leur déficit tion centralisés, des actions centrées sur l’éduca- d’exploitation était directement pris en charge par tion, les réformes agraires, la santé. le Trésor Public) et d’une élite administrative qui a pris le pouvoir. C’est de cette époque que s’est Dans les années 80, avec le début de l’ouverture forgé, notamment pour la jeunesse, un idéal de internationale, la chute des prix des hydrocarbures participation à la fonction publique au détriment et la prise en compte d’importants déséquilibres de l’aventure dans le secteur privé. macroéconomiques, vint le temps des plans d’ajus- tement structurels et le début des opérations de Lorsque les économies se sont ouvertes, c’est la transformation institutionnelle destinées à sou- même élite qui a conduit les opérations de priva- lager les Etats et à développer le secteur privé. tisation, les négociations avec les grandes orga- Ce mouvement s’est poursuivi dans les années 90 nisations internationales, avec les investisseurs avec la multiplication des accords de libre-échange. étrangers, en donnant des gages à l’expertise in- Il s’est accompagné de la généralisation des opé- ternationale qui réclamait la pénétration des mar- rations de privatisation, du développement des chés, la modification des cadres institutionnels, bourses de valeurs et du financement privé. Et de- la libération des initiatives. Beaucoup de choses vant le creusement des déficits commerciaux, le ont été faites dans l’évolution des cadres juri- bouclage financier s’est réalisé grâce à l’extension diques mais pas l’essentiel, c’est-à-dire l’applica- des flux compensatoires venant de l’extérieur, via tion concrète. L’authoritarian bargain model s’est le tourisme, les investissements directs étrangers et maintenu sous des formes différentes. La liber- les transferts de revenus des migrants. Il a conduit à té de la presse et d’association a été confisquée des taux de croissance significatifs dans les années pour faire en sorte que les ajustements inhérents 2000 qui laissaient augurer d’une convergence avec à toute politique d’ouverture ne conduisent pas à les pays voisins, en particulier européens. des troubles. Le développement s’est concentré dans les villes et les régions côtières. L’Etat n’a Cependant, toute cette période qui aurait dû plus été en mesure d’offrir à la jeunesse les em- conduire à supprimer les rentes de toutes sortes, plois publics que celle-ci avait l’habitude de viser. -1- Plus grave, et plus souterrain, s’est installée une l’efficacité des cadres institutionnels, elle retrouve- connivence entre le monde des affaires et les ra ses leviers d’action lorsque ces conditions seront responsables politiques. Faute de moyens d’éva- remplies. La seconde est de considérer que les mou- luation des projets indépendants, et des autres vements en cours dans le monde arabe touchent opérations impliquant des décisions publiques, aussi à la façon dont ce modèle économique s’est s’est installée une corruption qui a touché tous les installé et a diffusé dans la société. Il ne s’agit plus niveaux de la population. Le résultat a été un mo- alors uniquement d’une question politique mais dèle de croissance peu productif et peu créateur d’une interrogation
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