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CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by CFA Society Czech Republic Team D

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CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by CFA Society Czech Republic Team D CFA Institute Research Challenge hosted by CFA Society Czech Republic Team D Team D, Student Research This report is published for educational purposes only by students Downstream Sector, Oil & Gas Industry competing in The CFA Institute Research Challenge Prague Stock Exchange (PSE) Recommendation: BUY Unipetrol a.s. Date: 17/12/2015 Current Price: CZK 160.1 Ticker: UNPE.PR (Reuters), UNIPE CP (Bloomberg) Target Price: CZK 206.0 (28% upside) Unipetrol: From ashes like a phoenix! Price Target Valuation Weight We issue a BUY recommendation on Unipetrol with a 12-month target price of CZK 206.0, obtained as an (CZK) equally weighted average of discounted free cash flow and multiples-based peer group valuation. This offers a DCF 50% 189.3 28% upside to the closing price of CZK 160.1 as of December 17, 2015. The main value driver is the downfall of Peer Group crude oil price. Additionally, Unipetrol benefits from an acquisition of 100% stake in Česká rafinérská refinery, 50% 222.7 Valuation strong GDP growth in the Czech Republic, increased interest of its parent PKN Orlen, and positive FX momentum. Due to a recent accident in Litvinov refinery, the share is currently traded at 41% of EV/Sales Price Target 206.0 compared to peer group median versus a long-term average of 99%. However, we see that the market Upside 27.9% significantly overreacted and created a significant space for growth. Highlights When Oil Price Declines, Unipetrol Grows | Decline of average crude oil price to the level of 52.5 USD/bbl (- 47% y/y) in 2015 positively affects the refining margins (+3.3 USD/bbl y/y in 3Q2015) and petrochemical margins to the level of 942 EUR/t (+43% y/y in 3Q2015). Taking into account current oil oversupply, demand Market Profile dynamics and geopolitical situation, we expect further minor decrease of oil prices in 2016 and 2017, followed by a rebound to the level of 56 USD/bbl in 2020. Petrochemical product prices are expected to follow the price 52-week price 119.35 – 194.90 of the inputs and decline. range (CZK) Average daily Stronger by M&A Activities | In 2015, Unipetrol acquired 100% stake in Česká rafinérská refinery and 10 791 986 volume (CZK) increased its production capacity from 5.9 mt/y to 8.7 mt/y. The Company is about to buy 70 fuel filling stations from OMV and gain additional 5% market share in retail business. Higher volumes along with high Average daily 66 471 margins have already been reflected in this year’s strong interim results. volume Positive FX Momentum | Strengthening dollar motivates foreign investors to enter the Czech market. As % of shares 0.04% Especially, given the 27 EUR/CZK floor held by the Czech National Bank until the end of 2016, foreign investors outstanding can expect additional profits from FX rate in the near future. We see the Unipetrol’s cost and revenue structures Shares to be further benefiting from future FX rates. 181 334 764 outstanding Market Overreacted to the Steam Cracker Accident | Exceptionally low EV/EBITDA and EV/Sales of 2.5 and Free float 27 867 423 0.17, respectively, are far from being justified, especially since ROIC increased significantly compared to peer companies recently. Unipetrol’s stock price fell 32% in reaction to the steam cracker shutdown from August Market Cap 29.032 2015. We estimate the material losses and lost profits of CZK 4.3bn, versus Company claims of CZK 2.2bn and (CZK bn) market reaction of CZK c. 6bn. Before the accident (2011 – 3Q 2015), the share was traded at average of 99% of BV per share EV/Sales median. Last year, it was traded at 87% of EV/EBITDA median. Currently, the share is traded at 41% 155.4 (CZK) EV/Sales and 29% of EV/EBITDA peers median, which cannot be rationalized neither by the accident nor any other factors. ROE 2015E 24.1% Higher Demand For Fuels and Petrochemical Products | Company’s results are further driven P/BV 1.03 by macroeconomic factors such as GDP growth and increased performance in sectors which have high diesel consumption demands. Czech GDP experienced the highest growth of 4.5% in 3Q2015 and 4.4% over the same P/E 3.94 quarters of the previous year. In 2016, GDP is expected to keep reasonable momentum of 2.8%, positively affecting domestic demand for motor fuels and petrochemical products. EPS (LTM) 41.1 PKN Expresses Higher Interest in Supporting Unipetrol | The management of the parent PKN Orlen changed its attitude and repeatedly expressed its interest to support Unipetrol. The management flagged its intention to establish a stable dividend policy starting next year, as a result of exceptionally profitable results. Unipetrol Daily Stock Price Developmnet since November 2014 5% GDP Growth Forecast (%) 230 Price Target – CZK 206.0 4% 28% upside 3% 210 2% 1% 190 Market Price 0% CZK 160.0 as 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 170 of 17/12/2015 Czech Republic Eurozone in CZK per share per CZKin Source: Czech National Bank, OECD 150 130 110 CFA Institute Research Challenge 2016 Team D, Czech Republic Figure 1. Revenues by Segment (CZK bn) Business Description 140 Unipetrol a.s. is the leading refining and petrochemical group in the Czech Republic and one of major players in 120 Central Europe. In the Czech Republic, it is the largest crude oil processor, one of the most important plastics 100 manufacturers and the owner of the largest fuel filling station network under the brand Benzina. In 2014, the 80 Group was in terms of revenues of CZK 124.2 bn the 5th largest company in the Czech Republic. 60 The Group consists of two major business segments: downstream and retail distribution of fuels. Within the 40 downstream segment, which combines refining and petrochemical production, the Company holds a 100% stake in Česká rafinérská a.s., the operator of refineries in Litvinov and Kralupy nad Vltavou with annual 20 refining capacity of 8.7 mt/y. Subsidiary Unipetrol RPA, s.r.o. operates a steam cracker and PE/PP units used 0 for production of basic plastics. PE/PP production units have approximate share of nearly 3% of PP and over 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 5% of PE on total European output, respectively. Unipetrol is also a leader on the Czech wholesale and retail Refining PetChem Retail fuels market operating network of Benzina filling stations with approximate market share of 15.3% in 2015. Source: Company data, Team estimates The Group is active in all Central Europe and is among the biggest companies in the region with 3,800 employees. Unipetrol is present only in the downstream part of Oil & Gas value chain and specializes in buying crude oil and Figure 2. Regions of Operations other feedstock used for further processing. Downstream segment has recently witnessed strong improvement driven mainly by good macro and lowest crude oil prices since the crisis. However, an unplanned shutdown of a steam cracker on 14 August, 2015 interrupted production of ethylene. Despite the accident, downstream segment has reported its very best performance so far. Retail segment is represented by the company Benzina s.r.o., the largest operator of filling stations in the Czech Republic with network of 339 branches. Benzina reported growth of 2% in 2013 and 2014 and expects to reach 15.3% market share in 2015, driven by additional refining capacity, lower crude oil price, and solid dynamics of Czech GDP together with active marketing activities of Benzina. In 2016, Benzina plans to further increase its market share to 20% through acquisition of 70 OMV filling stations. Source: Team estimates The Group also continues to develop export activities, giving the highest priority to the intragroup cooperation. Figure 3. Revenue by Country in 2014 Unipetrol Slovakia continues its operation covering both Slovakian and Hungarian markets where the new subsidiary was established in 2015. In Germany, the Company maximized deliveries for Orlen Deutschland, reaching out a major supply of its 550 petrol stations. In 2015. Unipetrol was also able to increase sales to 9% Austria using the southern ČEPRO terminals for direct fuel supply. 8% 2% Another business line is operated by Paramo a.s., the largest Czech oil and lubricant producer that exports 11% more than 60% of its production. Paramo controls 35% share in the Czech market, supplying major retail chains and prominent industrial companies such as OKD, ArcelorMittal Ostrava and Třinecké železárny. Paramo is also a major hydraulic oil supplier for Czech Railways and the Army of the Czech Republic. 70% In 2015, the Company continues to fulfill its Unipetrol Group Strategy 2014-2017 which can be described by the following 4 pillars: Czech Republic Germany ● Excellence in operations in Refining – Unipetrol aims to increase efficiency of refining assets, improve Poland Slovakia operating performance and maximize the share of internal captive demand (feedstock for petrochemical Other production and product provider for retail segment) Source: Company data ● Strengthening its market position in PetChem - Main goal is to increase steam cracker utilization, Figure 4. Company Structure increase petrochemical sales volumes and new polyethylene unit commissioning Unipetrol, a.s. ● Gain market share in Retail – Unipetrol plans to leverage on its strong market position for further growth (organic, acquisitions) of market share that also stimulates higher utilization of refining capacity Service Retail Downstream R&D Logistics Center in the future Česká ● Optimized costs of Energo – Last goal is to minimize total energy costs (electricity + heat) for the whole Benzina Petrotrans rafinérská Unipetrol Group while maintaining flexibility and security of energy needs Unipetrol Unipetrol Unipetrol Shareholder Structure | Majority of Unipetrol is owned by two major shareholder groups - PKN Orlen SA and RPA Hungary Doprava J&T Group.
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