CFA Institute Research Challenge 2016 Prague, 3/2/2016 Unipetrol: From Ashes Like a Phoenix! Team D Ondřej, Pavel, Robert K., Robert Š., Tomáš Executive Summary
Main features Company profile . Largest downstream group in CZ Market Cap CZK 29.0bn EBIT CZK 8.5bn . Operator of 339 fuel stations in CZ Net Cash CZK 6.8bn . Part of PKN Orlen (63%) 52-week price range CZK 119 – 195
Average daily volume CZK 10.8m
230 Price Target CZK 206 Free float 15% as of 17/12/2016 210
190 Market Price CZK 160 Recommendation 170 as of 17/12/2015 Current Price: 150 in CZK per share CZKperin 160 CZK 130 Target Price: 110 206 CZK BUY
Upside: 29%
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Business Description
Downstream Retail
Refining Filling stations network
PetChem
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Business Description
Downstream Retail
Refining Filling stations network
PetChem
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Financials Breakdown
2015E Revenues and EBIT (CZK) Revenues by country
Slovakia Other
Revenues 62bn 30bn 9bn Poland 9% 8% 2% 11%
70% EBIT 0.2bn 8.1bn 0.3bn
Germany Czech Republic 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Refining Petrochemistry Retail
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Industry Overview & Competitive Positioning Industry & Competitors
TOTAL NETHERLANDS 3,965,000
TOTAL BELGIUM 2,460,000 PKN ORLEN 700,000
Dow Chemical Co. 560,000 Shell 560,000
PKN ORLEN TOTAL GERMANY 544,000 5,757,265 OMV AG MOL Group 450,000 OMV AG 220,000 500,000 Steam cracker ethylene production in kt MOL Group 660,000
Unipetrol operations
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Investment Summary Investment Summary
Key drivers:
1. Crude oil price
2. Steam cracker overreaction crude oil represents 3. Modernization and M&A 62% of total 4. Macro environment costs
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Investment Summary
Key drivers: Brent crude oil price (USD/bbl) 1. Crude oil price 140 OPEC defends 2. Steam cracker overreaction 120 market share
3. Modernization and M&A 100 80
4. Macro environment 60
40
20 oversupply 2m bbl/day 0
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Investment Summary
Key drivers: Avg. annual oil price forecast (USD/bbl) 1. Crude oil price
2. Steam cracker overreaction 120
100 3. Modernization and M&A 80 -47% 4. Macro environment 60
40
20
0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016E 2018E
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Investment Summary
Key drivers: Avg. annual oil price vs. EBIT margin 1. Crude oil price
2. Steam cracker overreaction 120 10%
100 8% 3. Modernization and M&A PE3 unit increases 6% 80 EBIT margin 4. Macro environment 4% 60 2% 40 0%
20 -2%
0 -4% 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016E 2018E
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Investment Summary
Key drivers: Steam cracker accident 1. Crude oil price . August 2015 – steam cracker caught on fire
2. Steam cracker overreaction . October 2016 – fully operational
3. Modernization and M&A CZK
Damage & lost profit 14bn 4. Macro environment Unrecoverable cost:
Management expectation 2bn
Market reaction 7bn CZK 1bn Our estimation 6bn upside
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Investment Summary
Key drivers: M&A activities 1. Crude oil price . 100% stake in Česká rafinérská (April 2015)
2. Steam cracker overreaction . 68 OMV stations (reaching 20% share in retail)
3. Modernization and M&A Refining capacity
4. Macro environment 2016 2013
4.45 +95% 8.7 mt/y mt/y
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Investment Summary
Key drivers: PE3 Investment 1. Crude oil price . New polyethylene (PE) unit
2. Steam cracker overreaction . Large investment project (CZK 8.5bn)
3. Modernization and M&A Polyethylene units capacity
4. Macro environment 2019 2017
320 +47% 470 kt/y kt/y
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Investment Summary
Key drivers: GDP Growth 1. Crude oil price 3,9%
2. Steam cracker overreaction 2,6% 2,6% 2,0% 3. Modernization and M&A 2,2% 2,2% 2,2%
4. Macro environment 1,6% 1,7% 1,5% 1,6% 1,6% 1,6%
0,9%
2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Czech Rep. EU 15
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Financial Analysis Profitability Analysis
EBIT margin Unipetrol vs. peers
12,0%
10,0% Steam cracker & Margin rationalization
8,0% PE3 → ↑ efficiency EBIT margin 6,0% ↑ oil price 2011 – 2014 -0.3% 4,0% 2015 9.5% 2,0% 2020E 2.2% 0,0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E -2,0%
-4,0%
Unipetrol Peers median Peers LT avg.
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis CAPEX and Dividend Potential
Cumulative FCF 2016 – 2020 (CZK bn)
15.1 22.0 2.2 0.4
3.7 12.5 13.6 0.0 6.8
Net cash Petchem Retail Refining Deprec. CAPEX Income Change Accum. 2015E EBIT EBIT EBIT tax & in NWC Cash Non core 2020E
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Valuation Valuation
50% Discounted cash flow model . 10-year forecast . EBIT estimated by segments ? . Adjustments for CAPEX, Depreciation, and NWC
Peer group valuation ?
50%
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Discounted Cash Flow
2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Crude Oil price (USD/bbl) 99.0 52.5 48.5 47.3 50.0 52.0 56.0 EBIT margin 2.1% 9.5% 4.5% 2.7% 2.9% 3.5% 2.5%
WACC calculation Free cash flow (CZK bn) Risk-free rate 2.7% 2,5 Beta 0.76 2,0 Risk premium 3.9%
1,5 Size premium 2.2% Cost of Equity 8.8% 1,0 Cost of Debt 2.6% 0,5 Equity weight 63% 0,0 Debt weight 37% 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E WACC 6.3%
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Valuation
50% Discounted cash flow model
194 CZK
Peer group valuation ? . 13 European downstream companies . EV/Sales valuation
. EV/EBITDA inappropriate multiple – volatility 50%
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Multiples Pricing
EV/Sales Unipetrol vs. peers median
0,45
0,40
0,35 0,30 EV/Sales
0,25 Historical discount -6% 0,20 LTM discount 48% 0,15
0,10 2011 2012 2013 2014 LTM
EV/Sales Unipetrol EV/Sales peers
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Multiples Pricing
LTM EV/Sales peers median 0.41x
36 330 37 278 5 852 30 478 6 800
Enterprise Steam EV adjusted Net cash Equity value value unadj. Cracker
219 CZK
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Target Price
DCF Analysis 50% 12-month target price 194 CZK 206 CZK
219 CZK
50% Upside: 29% Multiples
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Risk Analysis Risk Matrix
Polish Elections
Regulatory Long-term
Environment Competitiveness
MEDIUM MEDIUM HIGH Steam Crude Oil Probability FX Risk Cracker Price
Shutdown
Russia/Ukraine Labour Union Macro LOW LOW Conflict
LOW MEDIUM HIGH Impact
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Main Risk: Steam Cracker Shutdown
Steam cracker shutdown Planned steam cracker utilization
. Postponed reconstruction 100%
80% . Full coverage expected by management
60% . Additional potential upside 40%
20%
0% 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Main Risks: Oil Price
Positive risks Negative risks
. China slowdown . Curtailing production in the US
. Iran comeback . US-RUS-OPEC agreement
. US storage capacity utilized . Geopolitical risks
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Main Risks: Corporate Risk
Polish elections Shareholder structure . Changes in PKN long-term strategy Others 13% . New management
J&T Group 24% 63% . Activist shareholder
. Pressure on dividend payout J&T Group PKN Orlen
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Conclusion Recommendation
1. Low crude oil prices
2. Steam cracker overreaction BUY 3. Modernization and M&A
4. Macro environment
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Appendix
Contents: . Stock Price Development . ROIC Decomposition . Company Structure . Beta Calculation . Map of Distribution System . DCF Model . SWOT Analysis . Comparables List . Porter 5 Forces . Comparable Companies . Multiples Valuation . Oil Supply & Demand Factors . EV/EBITDA . Steam Cracker Accident . Sensitivity Analysis . Refining Utilization Ratio . Refining and PE Capacity . Risk Matrix . Refining Shutdowns . Number of Fuel Stations Appendix: Stock Price Development Back to contents
Unipetrol stock price (CZK) and daily volumes (CZK m)
Steam Cracker Accident 700 J&T Bank ceases acquiring 190 shares of Unipetrol 600 Acquisition of 32.445% share in Česká rafinérská from Eni 170 500
UREA unit shutdown 400 150 Crude Oil Price Slump Acquisition of 16.335% share 300 in Česká rafinérská from Shell 130 200
110 100
90 0
Trade volume in CZK million CZK per share
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Appendix: Company Structure Back to contents
Company structure
Unipetrol, a.s.
Service Retail Downstream R&D Logistics Center
Česká Benzina Petrotrans rafinérská
Unipetrol Unipetrol Unipetrol RPA Hungary Doprava
Paramo
Unipetrol Deutschland
Unipetrol Slovensko
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Appendix: Map of Distribution System Back to contents
Distribution system in CZ and SK
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Appendix: SWOT Analysis Back to contents
SWOT analysis
Strenghts Weaknesses Česká rafinérská shares purchase Disabled PetChem Production Leveraging on retail market position New Polish Government Changes Refining Monopoly in CR Low Competitiveness High Refining & PetChem Margins Record GDP Growth Low Crude Oil Price Strong US Dollar Opportunities Threats PE3 Investment Project MOL Group influence Growth Low Crude Oil Forecast New Gulf and US refineries Strengthening Export Further CNB Interventions Divident Payout
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Appendix: Porter 5 Forces Back to contents
Porter five forces analysis
Threat of New Entrants 5 4 3 Threat of Intensity of 2 Substitute 0 No threat to the business Competitive Products or 1 Insignificant threat to the business Rivalry 1 Services 2 Low threat to the business 0 3 Moderate threat to the business 4 Significant threat to the business 5 High threat to the business
Bargaining Bargaining Power of Power of Suppliers Customers
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Appendix: Oil Supply & Demand Factors Back to contents
Avg. daily supply/demand (m bbl) Supply & demand drivers
1. OPEC production + 5.7% over official quotas 97 1 mln bbl 96 2 mln bbl 2. Iran easement + 600 k bbl/day + 30 m bbl stored 95 in tankers 94 93 3. Historical highs of Iraq production 92 91 4. High utilization of US storage capacities 90 2014 2015 2016 5. Oil demand slowdown driven by lower GDP Total Demand Total Supply growth of China (6% 2016 vs. 6.8% 2015)
Marginal Cost of Production Proven Oil Reserves 2014 Proven Oil Reserves (m bbl) Total Cost of Oil Production (USD/bbl) (USD/bbl) North America 40 681 39 80 Latin America 342 235 25 20 Eastern Europe and Eurasia 119 863 22 45 Western Europe 11 577 52 105 Middle East 802 518 10 7 Africa 127 561 26 19 Asia and Pacific 48 445 29 N/A Total 1 492 880 18 17 OPEC 1 206 004 14 11 OPEC % 81% 24% 34% Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Appendix: Steam Cracker Accident Back to contents
Steam cracker accident direct costs and insurance (mil. CZK)
Mngmt. Management Our expected Our expected Cost by type Total cost expected expected loss recovery loss recovery in %
Cost of repair 4 100 100% 100% - - Lost profit 3Q 2015 1 600 0% 1 600 0% 1 600 Lost profit 4Q 2015 480 0% 480 0% 480
Lost profit 4Q 2015 2 400 100% 50% 1 200 -
Lost profit 1Q 2016 2 189 100% 50% 1 094 -
Lost profit 2Q 2016 2 189 100% 50% 1 094 -
Lost profit 3Q 2016 766 100% 50% 383 - Total cost 13 724 2 080 5 852
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Appendix: Refining Utilization Ratio Back to contents
Refining utilization ratio
87% 87% 87% 88% 86% 85%
82% 82%
72% 77%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Appendix: Refining and PE Capacity Back to contents
Refining and PE capacity development
200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% refining 80% PE 60% 40% 20% 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Appendix: Refining Shutdowns Back to contents
2017 and 2019 planned periodical shutdowns (ths. kt)
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Appendix: Number of Fuel Stations Back to contents
Number of filling stations in 2015 Selected Chains
68
339 316
215 190 173
Benzina MOL OMV EuroOil Shell
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Back to contents
Appendix: ROIC Decomposition Gross margin Year 2 011 2 012 2 013 2 014 LTM Unipetrol 5.5% 5.5% 4.7% 6.6% 13.1% Peers med. 8.7% 7.8% 6.4% 3.7% 8.2%
PM (After tax) SG&A, distribution expenses and others/Sales Year 2 011 2 012 2 013 2 014 LTM Year 2 011 2 012 2 013 2 014 LTM Unipetrol -1.2% -0.1% -0.7% 1.7% 6.8% Unipetrol 3.8% 3.0% 3.2% 2.7% 3.0% Peers med. 2.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.3% 3.6% Peers med. 3.9% 4.2% 3.8% 3.9% 5.1%
Depreciation/Sales ROIC Year 2 011 2 012 2 013 2 014 LTM Year 2 011 2 012 2 013 2 014 LTM Unipetrol 3.2% 2.6% 2.4% 1.8% 1.7% Unipetrol -3.6% -0.2% -2.3% 6.8% 30.4% Peers med. 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 2.2% 2.5% Peers med. 8.6% 6.7% 1.7% 1.5% 12.3%
Invested capital turnover ST part of Invested capital turnover Year 2 011 2 012 2 013 2 014 LTM Year 2 011 2 012 2 013 2 014 LTM Unipetrol 2.97 3.65 3.36 4.00 4.50 Unipetrol 29.28 23.63 19.06 12.21 18.94 Peers med. 3.30 3.31 3.49 4.00 2.66 Peers med. 15.80 19.03 16.89 11.44 19.98
LT part of Invested capital turnover Year 2 011 2 012 2 013 2 014 LTM Unipetrol 3.30 4.32 4.08 5.94 5.90 Peers med. 3.99 3.77 3.93 2.94 2.69 Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Appendix: Beta Calculation Back to contents
Unlevered Beta Beta with Levered Beta Leverage Beta relevered shrinkage Averag Ticker FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 LTM FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 LTM e LTM LTM LTM PKN 0,90 0,87 0,96 0,62 0,49 93% 43% 43% 51% 38% 54% 0,34 0,63 0,75 NESTE 1,07 1,17 1,58 1,40 1,20 119% 93% 48% 36% 29% 65% 0,78 0,67 0,78 MOL 1,20 1,19 0,98 0,59 0,63 58% 51% 51% 64% 30% 51% 0,44 0,62 0,75 Saras 1,21 1,34 1,06 0,90 1,01 58% 49% 55% 74% 29% 53% 0,71 0,63 0,75 Hellenic Pet. 0,72 0,70 0,48 0,62 0,39 59% 18% 63% 160% 180% 96% 0,22 0,78 0,86 Lotos 1,13 1,09 0,93 0,64 0,43 251% 123% 135% 139% 127% 155% 0,19 0,99 1,00 Motor Oil Hellas Lvol. Lvol. Lvol. Lvol. Lvol. 199% 129% 115% 166% 122% 146% Lvol. 0,96 0,98 Slovnaft Lvol. Lvol. Lvol. Lvol. Lvol. 13% 38% 22% 35% 16% 25% Lvol. 0,53 0,69 NIS Lvol. Lvol. Lvol. Lvol. Lvol. 38% 31% 59% 79% 109% 63% Lvol. 0,67 0,78 Esso Francaise 1,11 1,13 1,07 1,01 0,92 15% 21% 63% 89% 0% 38% 0,70 0,58 0,72 Paz Oil 0,78 0,78 0,70 0,52 0,62 122% 108% 109% 80% 59% 95% 0,35 0,78 0,85 Oil Refineries NA 0,89 0,82 0,84 0,96 130% 139% 170% 189% 112% 148% 0,44 0,97 0,98 TUPRAS 1,16 1,25 1,02 1,16 1,09 14% 29% 52% 55% 57% 41% 0,82 0,59 0,72 Unipetrol Lvol. Lvol. Lvol. Lvol. Lvol. 8% 9% 9% 20% 0% 9% Lvol. 0,65 0,77 1st quartile 84% 85% 79% 61% 48% 15% 27% 46% 48% 25% 40% 0,31 0,31 0,31 Median 111% 111% 97% 74% 77% 58% 46% 57% 76% 47% 58% 0,44 0,66 0,77 3rd quartile 118% 121% 106% 105% 103% 124% 111% 110% 144% 115% 109% 0,72 0,83 0,86
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis DCF (CZK m) 4Q15E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E EBIT 111 3,291 2,636 3,031 3,644 2,901 2,849 2,794 2,753 2,718 Tax rate 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% NOPAT 90 2,666 2,135 2,455 2,951 2,349 2,349 2,263 2,230 2,202 Depreciation 780 2,620 2,881 3,114 3,211 3,298 3,298 3,443 3,504 3,559 Capex/Divestitures -3,973 -5,000 -5,000 -4,000 -4,000 -4,000 -4,000 -4,000 -4,000 -4,000 Change in NWC 3,116 953 -16 -443 5 -455 -455 -163 -17 -17 Free Cash Flow 13 1,239 1 1,126 2,167 1,192 1,192 1,543 1,718 1,744
WACC 6.34% 6.34% 6.34% 6.34% 6.34% 6.34% 6.34% 6.34% 6.34% 6.34% Discount factor 0.98 0.93 0.87 0.82 0.77 0.72 0.68 0.64 0.60 0.57 NPV of FCF 12 1,147 1 922 1,669 864 812 988 1,035 988
Sum of NPV of FCF 8,311 2016E 2017E 2018EBack 2019Eto contents 2020E Terminal value growth 1% NOPAT 2,689 2,158 2,478 2,972 2,369
Term value at 1% growth 32,989
Terminal value PV 18,405 Enterprise Value 26,716 -3973 705900000 Net cash/(Net Debt) 6,800 0 5.5248618 Fair value 33,516 5500 8 Shares outstanding (m) 181
Present value 182.0 Upside 13% Price Target 193.6 Upside 20% Appendix: Comparables List Back to contents
Refining& Retail/ Ticker Company others Markets Petchem Trading PKN.WA PKN Orlen 74.48% 25.29% 0.23% Germany and Central Europe NESTE.HE Neste Oil 63.23% 24.06% 12.71% Baltic sea region MOLB.BU MOL Plc 70.17% 16.25% 13.59% Eastern Europe and UK SRS.MI SARAS group 74.67% 21.05% 4.28% Italy, Spain Hellenic ELPE.AT 73.79% 25.99% 0.22% South Eastern europe Petroleum LTSP.WA Grupa Lotos 96.79% 0.00% 3.19% Poland and surrounding Motor Oil Hellas MOH.AT 73.96% 26.04% 0.00% Greece and South eastern europe Group SLV.BE SLOVNAFT 98.39% 10.56% -8.95% Central Europe, Germany and Austria NIIS.BEL NIS ad Novi Sad 75.29% 0.00% 24.71% South east Europe Esso Francaise ESSF.PA NA NA NA France SA Paz Oil Company PZOL.TA 57.75% 42.25% 0.00% Israel Ltd ORL.TA Oil Refineries Ltd 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% Israel TUPRS.IS TUPRAS 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% Turkey UNPE.PR Unipetrol 91.00% 9.00% 0.00% Czech Republic and central europe
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Appendix: Comparable Companies Back to contents
Comparable companies PM, ICTO sized by sales (EUR m)
PM 14 Size: 5 000 Slovnaft 7 NIS MOL Unipetrol 6 NESTE 5 Paz Oil TUPRAS 4 Oil Refineries PKN 3 Motor Oil Hellas 2 Saras 1
0 Hellenic Pet. Lotos Esso Francaise -1 ICTO 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 19
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Appendix: Multiples Valuation Back to contents
Comparison of peers multiples in 2015
EV/Sales 0,9 0,8 NIS Paz Oil 0,7 NESTE TUPRAS Equity value 0,6 Multiple used LTM 0,5 Lotos EV/Sales 37 278 0,4 MOL Oil Refineries Hellenic Pet. PKN MV/BV 36 939 0,3 Slovnaft Motor Oil Hellas EV/EBITDA 65 363 0,2 Unipetrol Saras 0,1 Esso Francaise 0,0 EV/EBITDA 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Appendix: EV/EBITDA Back to contents
EV/EBITDA Unipetrol vs. peers median 25
20
15
10
5
- 2 011 2 011 2 012 2 012 2 013 2 013 2 014 2 014 2 015 2 015
EV/EBITDA Unipetrol EV/EBITDA peers
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Appendix: Sensitivity Analysis Back to contents
Price target sensitivity to terminal growth and WACC
WACC
205.8 5.3% 5.6% 5.8% 6.1% 6.3% 6.6% 6.8% 7.1% 7.3%
-2% 194 191 189 187 185 183 182 180 178
-1% 201 198 195 193 190 188 186 184 182
0% 211 207 203 200 197 194 191 189 187
growth
1% 225 219 214 210 206 202 199 196 193
terminal 2% 248 239 231 225 219 214 209 205 201
3% 290 274 261 250 240 232 225 219 214
4% 395 352 321 298 280 265 252 242 234
Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis