Unipetrol: from Ashes Like a Phoenix! Team D Ondřej, Pavel, Robert K., Robert Š., Tomáš Executive Summary
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CFA Institute Research Challenge 2016 Prague, 3/2/2016 Unipetrol: From Ashes Like a Phoenix! Team D Ondřej, Pavel, Robert K., Robert Š., Tomáš Executive Summary Main features Company profile . Largest downstream group in CZ Market Cap CZK 29.0bn EBIT CZK 8.5bn . Operator of 339 fuel stations in CZ Net Cash CZK 6.8bn . Part of PKN Orlen (63%) 52-week price range CZK 119 – 195 Average daily volume CZK 10.8m 230 Price Target CZK 206 Free float 15% as of 17/12/2016 210 190 Market Price CZK 160 Recommendation 170 as of 17/12/2015 Current Price: 150 in CZK per share CZKperin 160 CZK 130 Target Price: 110 206 CZK BUY Upside: 29% Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Business Description Downstream Retail Refining Filling stations network PetChem Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Business Description Downstream Retail Refining Filling stations network PetChem Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Financials Breakdown 2015E Revenues and EBIT (CZK) Revenues by country Slovakia Other Revenues 62bn 30bn 9bn Poland 9% 8% 2% 11% 70% EBIT 0.2bn 8.1bn 0.3bn Germany Czech Republic 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Refining Petrochemistry Retail Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Industry Overview & Competitive Positioning Industry & Competitors TOTAL NETHERLANDS 3,965,000 TOTAL BELGIUM 2,460,000 PKN ORLEN 700,000 Dow Chemical Co. 560,000 Shell 560,000 PKN ORLEN TOTAL GERMANY 544,000 5,757,265 OMV AG MOL Group 450,000 OMV AG 220,000 500,000 Steam cracker ethylene production in kt MOL Group 660,000 Unipetrol operations Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Investment Summary Investment Summary Key drivers: 1. Crude oil price 2. Steam cracker overreaction crude oil represents 3. Modernization and M&A 62% of total 4. Macro environment costs Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Investment Summary Key drivers: Brent crude oil price (USD/bbl) 1. Crude oil price 140 OPEC defends 2. Steam cracker overreaction 120 market share 3. Modernization and M&A 100 80 4. Macro environment 60 40 20 oversupply 2m bbl/day 0 Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Investment Summary Key drivers: Avg. annual oil price forecast (USD/bbl) 1. Crude oil price 2. Steam cracker overreaction 120 100 3. Modernization and M&A 80 -47% 4. Macro environment 60 40 20 0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016E 2018E Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Investment Summary Key drivers: Avg. annual oil price vs. EBIT margin 1. Crude oil price 2. Steam cracker overreaction 120 10% 100 8% 3. Modernization and M&A PE3 unit increases 6% 80 EBIT margin 4. Macro environment 4% 60 2% 40 0% 20 -2% 0 -4% 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016E 2018E Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Investment Summary Key drivers: Steam cracker accident 1. Crude oil price . August 2015 – steam cracker caught on fire 2. Steam cracker overreaction . October 2016 – fully operational 3. Modernization and M&A CZK Damage & lost profit 14bn 4. Macro environment Unrecoverable cost: Management expectation 2bn Market reaction 7bn CZK 1bn Our estimation 6bn upside Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Investment Summary Key drivers: M&A activities 1. Crude oil price . 100% stake in Česká rafinérská (April 2015) 2. Steam cracker overreaction . 68 OMV stations (reaching 20% share in retail) 3. Modernization and M&A Refining capacity 4. Macro environment 2016 2013 4.45 +95% 8.7 mt/y mt/y Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Investment Summary Key drivers: PE3 Investment 1. Crude oil price . New polyethylene (PE) unit 2. Steam cracker overreaction . Large investment project (CZK 8.5bn) 3. Modernization and M&A Polyethylene units capacity 4. Macro environment 2019 2017 320 +47% 470 kt/y kt/y Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Investment Summary Key drivers: GDP Growth 1. Crude oil price 3,9% 2. Steam cracker overreaction 2,6% 2,6% 2,0% 3. Modernization and M&A 2,2% 2,2% 2,2% 4. Macro environment 1,6% 1,7% 1,5% 1,6% 1,6% 1,6% 0,9% 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Czech Rep. EU 15 Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Financial Analysis Profitability Analysis EBIT margin Unipetrol vs. peers 12,0% 10,0% Steam cracker & Margin rationalization 8,0% PE3 → ↑ efficiency EBIT margin 6,0% ↑ oil price 2011 – 2014 -0.3% 4,0% 2015 9.5% 2,0% 2020E 2.2% 0,0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E -2,0% -4,0% Unipetrol Peers median Peers LT avg. Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis CAPEX and Dividend Potential Cumulative FCF 2016 – 2020 (CZK bn) 15.1 22.0 2.2 0.4 3.7 12.5 13.6 0.0 6.8 Net cash Petchem Retail Refining Deprec. CAPEX Income Change Accum. 2015E EBIT EBIT EBIT tax & in NWC Cash Non core 2020E Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Valuation Valuation 50% Discounted cash flow model . 10-year forecast . EBIT estimated by segments ? . Adjustments for CAPEX, Depreciation, and NWC Peer group valuation ? 50% Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Discounted Cash Flow 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Crude Oil price (USD/bbl) 99.0 52.5 48.5 47.3 50.0 52.0 56.0 EBIT margin 2.1% 9.5% 4.5% 2.7% 2.9% 3.5% 2.5% WACC calculation Free cash flow (CZK bn) Risk-free rate 2.7% 2,5 Beta 0.76 2,0 Risk premium 3.9% 1,5 Size premium 2.2% Cost of Equity 8.8% 1,0 Cost of Debt 2.6% 0,5 Equity weight 63% 0,0 Debt weight 37% 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E WACC 6.3% Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Valuation 50% Discounted cash flow model 194 CZK Peer group valuation ? . 13 European downstream companies . EV/Sales valuation . EV/EBITDA inappropriate multiple – volatility 50% Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Multiples Pricing EV/Sales Unipetrol vs. peers median 0,45 0,40 0,35 0,30 EV/Sales 0,25 Historical discount -6% 0,20 LTM discount 48% 0,15 0,10 2011 2012 2013 2014 LTM EV/Sales Unipetrol EV/Sales peers Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Multiples Pricing LTM EV/Sales peers median 0.41x 36 330 37 278 5 852 30 478 6 800 Enterprise Steam EV adjusted Net cash Equity value value unadj. Cracker 219 CZK Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Target Price DCF Analysis 50% 12-month target price 194 CZK 206 CZK 219 CZK 50% Upside: 29% Multiples Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Risk Analysis Risk Matrix Polish Elections Regulatory Long-term Environment Competitiveness MEDIUM MEDIUM HIGH Steam Crude Oil Probability FX Risk Cracker Price Shutdown Russia/Ukraine Labour Union Macro LOW LOW Conflict LOW MEDIUM HIGH Impact Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Main Risk: Steam Cracker Shutdown Steam cracker shutdown Planned steam cracker utilization . Postponed reconstruction 100% 80% . Full coverage expected by management 60% . Additional potential upside 40% 20% 0% 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Main Risks: Oil Price Positive risks Negative risks . China slowdown . Curtailing production in the US . Iran comeback . US-RUS-OPEC agreement . US storage capacity utilized . Geopolitical risks Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Main Risks: Corporate Risk Polish elections Shareholder structure . Changes in PKN long-term strategy Others 13% . New management J&T Group 24% 63% . Activist shareholder . Pressure on dividend payout J&T Group PKN Orlen Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Conclusion Recommendation 1. Low crude oil prices 2. Steam cracker overreaction BUY 3. Modernization and M&A 4. Macro environment Industry & Investment Financial Company Overview Valuation Risks Conclusion Competitors Case Analysis Appendix Contents: . Stock Price Development . ROIC Decomposition . Company Structure . Beta Calculation . Map of Distribution System . DCF Model . SWOT Analysis . Comparables List . Porter 5 Forces . Comparable Companies . Multiples Valuation . Oil Supply & Demand Factors . EV/EBITDA . Steam Cracker Accident . Sensitivity Analysis . Refining Utilization Ratio . Refining and PE Capacity . Risk Matrix . Refining Shutdowns . Number of Fuel Stations Appendix: Stock Price Development Back to contents Unipetrol stock price (CZK) and daily volumes (CZK m) Steam Cracker Accident 700 J&T Bank ceases acquiring 190 shares