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2020 U.S. Elections Roundup Introduction

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2020 U.S. Elections Roundup Introduction 2020 U.S. ELECTIONS ROUNDUP INTRODUCTION Welcome to McGuireWoods Consulting’s 2020 U.S. Elections Roundup interactive website — your one-stop resource for this year’s presidential, congressional, gubernatorial, attorneys general and state legislative races. Complete with concise information about how elections are shaping up around the country — including snapshots of primary results and hot-button ballot initiatives — our site provides a landscape view of our nation’s political scene and insights on potential shifts in the tide. Our goal is to provide business leaders and constituents quick, reliable access to comprehensive information about this year’s elections. Based on a compilation of public polling and forecasting data collected and analyzed by Politico, UVA Center for Elections, Inside Elections, 270toWin and the Cook Political Report, information provided on our site will be updated as appropriate. We hope you find our site helpful, and please let us know if you have any questions about our country’s most anticipated elections. Gov. James Hodges Mona Mohib Scott Binkley President Senior Vice President Vice President +1 803 251 2301 +1 202 857 2912 +1 202 857 2921 Email Email Email 2 WHY ARE THE 2020 STATE ELECTIONS IMPORTANT? During a presidential election, state races often take a backseat. But for 2020, the electoral battles in the states are critical because there is much at stake: Whichever party ends up controlling the governorships and state legislatures in key states after the election will have substantial influence over the congressional redistricting process after the 2020 census. How district maps are drawn will have an impact on state and congressional races for the next 10 years. New maps could increase the number of seats in Congress for one party or the other, effectively giving one party an advantage in securing majorities in state legislatures and the U.S. House of Representatives. Control of governorships and state legislatures will also impact policymaking, as a growing number of states are taking the initiative to legislate on issues that the federal government has yet to address. For example, since the start of the Trump Administration, we have witnessed elected leaders in blue states playing a significant and prominent role in fighting federal policies that they view as adverse to the interests of their constituents. Democratic state attorneys general have mounted a firewall against President Trump’s policies on issues like immigration and energy development, launching a number of lawsuits to oppose controversial administration policies. Such resistance isn’t new — during the Obama Administration, Republican state attorneys general challenged executive actions and policies in much the same way. Amidst all the predictions and possibility for upsets, one thing remains certain — this year’s state elections are among the most widely anticipated in many years because of their potential to create shifts in in the political landscape of our country that extend far beyond state lines. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Click on any state in the following maps to jump to that state’s analysis. • Overview of Presidential Race • Overview of Gubernatorial Races • Overview of U.S. Senate Races • Overview of U.S. House Races • Overview of Attorneys General Races • Overview of State Legislative Races - Senate • Overview of State Legislative Races - House • State-by-State Analysis The information in this presentation is based on the latest publicly available data and is subject to change. Last updated October 16, 2020. 4 PRESIDENTIAL RACE PROJECTIONS The information in this presentation is based on the latest publicly available data and is subject to change. Sources: Politico, UVA Center for Elections, Inside Elections, 270toWin, Cook Political Report. Last updated October 16, 2020. No election Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Lean Democratic Tossup Safe Republican Likely Republican Lean Republican MA RI CT ME-2 NE-2 Back to Top 5 GUBERNATORIAL RACE PROJECTIONS The information in this presentation is based on the latest publicly available data and is subject to change. Sources: Politico, UVA Center for Elections, Inside Elections, 270toWin, Cook Political Report. Last updated October 16, 2020. No election Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Lean Democratic Tossup Safe Republican Likely Republican Lean Republican MA RI CT Back to Top 6 U.S. SENATE RACE PROJECTIONS The information in this presentation is based on the latest publicly available data and is subject to change. Sources: Politico, UVA Center for Elections, Inside Elections, 270toWin, Cook Political Report. Last updated October 16, 2020. No election Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Lean Democratic Tossup Safe Republican Likely Republican Lean Republican MA RI CT Back to Top 7 U.S. HOUSE RACE PROJECTIONS The information in this presentation is based on the latest publicly available data and is subject to change. Sources: Politico, UVA Center for Elections, Inside Elections, 270toWin, Cook Political Report. Last updated October 16, 2020. No election Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Lean Democratic Tossup Safe Republican Likely Republican Lean Republican ME MT WA MI VT NH ND SD OR ID MA CT WY NY MN WI OH RI IN IA NJ PA DE NE CO MD NV UT IL KY WV KS MO VA NM TN NC AZ GA OK CA AR SC AK MS AL HI LA TX FL Back to Top 8 ATTORNEYS GENERAL RACE PROJECTIONS The information in this presentation is based on the latest publicly available data and is subject to change. Sources: Politico, UVA Center for Elections, Inside Elections, 270toWin, Cook Political Report. Last updated October 16, 2020. No election Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Lean Democratic Tossup Safe Republican Likely Republican Lean Republican MA RI CT Back to Top 9 STATE LEGISLATIVE RACES: SENATE CHAMBERS The information in this presentation is based on the latest publicly available data and is subject to change. Sources: Politico, UVA Center for Elections, Inside Elections, 270toWin, Cook Political Report. Last updated October 16, 2020. No election Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Lean Democratic Tossup Safe Republican Likely Republican Lean Republican MA RI CT Back to Top 10 STATE LEGISLATIVE RACES: HOUSE CHAMBERS This map projects which party will hold the majority in each state’s House chamber. The information in this presentation is based on the latest publicly available data and is subject to change. Sources: Politico, UVA Center for Elections, Inside Elections, 270toWin, Cook Political Report. Last updated October 16, 2020. No election Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Lean Democratic Tossup Safe Republican Likely Republican Lean Republican MA RI CT Back to Top 11 ALABAMA PRESIDENTIAL RACE Projected Safe R 9 Electoral Votes Donald Trump won 62% of the vote in Alabama in 2016. The last Democrat to win in Alabama was Jimmy Carter in 1976. GOVERNOR Current Governor Kay Ivey (R) The next election is in 2022 U.S. CONGRESS Senate House All seven House seats are up for election in Projected Lean R Projected Safe R 2020. The current makeup of the districts Current: Richard Shelby Current: 6-1 R is projected to remain the same. The only (R); Doug Jones (D) AL-01 Safe R Democratic seat is held by Terri Sewell (7th AL-02 Safe R congressional district), who is projected to AL-03 Safe R win reelection easily. Senator Doug Jones is AL-04 Safe R up for reelection in 2020. As a Democratic AL-05 Safe R Senator in a red state, his chance of reelection AL-06 Safe R is particularly slim. Former Auburn football AL-07 Safe D coach Tommy Tuberville won the runoff in the Republican primary and will face Jones in the general election. ATTORNEY GENERAL Current Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) The next election is in 2022 STATE LEGISLATURE Senate House The next election for state legislative chambers Current 27-8 R Current 77-28 R is 2022. TOP POLICY ISSUES COVID-19 IMPACT • Health Care: Alabama has been • Governor Ivey postponed the Republican consistently ranked one of the worst U.S. Senate runoff from March 31 to July 14 states for health care quality and access, • Governor Ivey moved Alabama into its first especially in rural areas. stage of reopening on May 1 after extending • Education: Alabama also ranks low in the state’s stay-at-home order until the end education quality and opportunity, and of April. Alabama has since remained in the most voters agree that major changes are broader stage of reopening put in place in needed. late May. BALLOT INITIATIVES & POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON VOTER TURNOUT There are four legislatively referred constitutional amendments (LRCA) that will appear on the ballot on November 3, 2020. • Judicial System Restructuring Amendment: Makes changes to judicial law and court systems and procedures • Authorize Legislature to Recompile the State Constitution Amendment: Authorizes the state legislature during the 2022 regular session to recompile the Alabama Constitution and provide for its ratification • Citizen Requirement for Voting Amendment: States that only a citizen can vote in Alabama • Judicial Vacancies Amendment: Provide that a judge, other than a probate judge, appointed to fill a vacancy would serve an initial term until the first Monday after the second Tuesday in January following the next general election after the judge has completed two years in office Back to Top 12 ALASKA PRESIDENTIAL RACE Projected Likely R 3 Electoral Votes GOVERNOR Current Governor Mike Dunleavy (R) The next election is in 2022 U.S. CONGRESS Senate House Incumbent Don Young will face Independent Projected Lean R Projected Lean R Alysse Galvin for the state’s one at-large Current: Lisa Murkowski Current: 1-0 R congressional district. Incumbent Senator (R); Dan Sullivan (R) At-Large District Daniel S. Sullivan will face Independent Al Likely R Gross in the general election. ATTORNEY GENERAL Current Attorney General Kevin Clarkson (R) Appointed by Governor. STATE LEGISLATURE Senate House With Alaska’s Senate safely in Republican Projected Safe R Projected Tossup hands, the Democrats are working with a Current 13-7 R Current 23-16-1 R splinter faction of moderate Republicans to control the House.
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