FEWS NET FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

Global Weather Hazards Summary October 7- 13, 2016

Flood and landslide threats will continue after Matthew hit the Hispaniola hard

Africa Weather Hazards

Flooding Abnormal Dryness Drought Severe Drought Tropical Cyclone Potential Locust Outbreak Heavy Snow Abnormal Cold Abnormal Heat Seasonally Dry 2 4 1. Prolonged heavy rainfall during the season 1 3 throughout the basin has triggered flooding and inundation along the Niger River in , Niger, and Nigeria. Seasonal Inundation is also expected to be greater than it has been for many years across the inner in Mali

2. Low and poorly distributed seasonal rainfall across parts of central Senegal and The Gambia have led to strengthening moisture deficits

3. Below-average seasonal rainfall and persistent moisture deficits in the region have negatively impacted developing crops across parts of the eastern Oromia and SNNP provinces of Ethiopia. Source: FEWS NET/NOAA 4. There is a potential for increased number of locusts migrating from the which may negatively impact cropping activities.

FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. The FEWS NET weather hazards process and products include participation by FEWS NET field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, USDA, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries concerned. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to [email protected], [email protected], or 1-301-683-3424.

Increased rains received across East . Satellite-Estimated Total Rainfall (mm) Valid: September 25 – October 1, 2016 During the past seven days, higher rainfall accumulations were Increasedreceived rainsacross received much across of eastern Africa. compared to the Satellite-Estimated Total Rainfall (mm) previous week.Weather According Hazards Summaryto satellite rainfall estimates, the Valid: September 25October – October 7- 113,, 201 20166 Duringhighest the weekly past seven precipitation days, higher amounts rainfall accumulation(>100mm) s werewere Increased rains received across East Africa. receivedregistered across acrossAfrica muchwestern Overview of Ethiopiaeastern andAfrica southeastern compared ,to the Satellite-Estimated Total Rainfall (mm) Valid: September 25 – October 1, 2016 previouswith more week. moderate According (25-75mm) to satellite, but wellrainfall distributed estimates, rainfall the During the past Increasedseven days, rains received higher acrossrainfall East accumulation Africa s were Figure 1: Satellite-Estimated Total Rainfall (mm) highesttotals registeredweekly elsewhereprecipitation in amountsthe region (>100mm)(Figure 1).were In Valid: September 25 – October 1, 2016 received across much of eastern Africa compared to the registeredaddition, p acrossortions westernof north ernEthiopia Somalia and observed southeastern locally Sudan, heavy previous week. During According the past sevento satellite days, higher rainfall rainfall accumulationsestimates, t hewere received withshower more activity. moderateacross much However,(25 of- 75mm)eastern manyAfrica, but compared wellparts distributed toof the central previous rainfall week.and According highesttotalssouth easternreweeklygistered toKenya, satellite precipitationelsewhere Somaliarainfall estimates, in, andamountsthe southeastern theregion highest (>100mm) ( Figureweekly Et hiopiaprecipitation 1).were didIn amounts registeredaddition,not register pacrossortions rains(>100mm) western of to nort weresignalh ernEthiopia registered theSomalia onset acrossand observed southeasternwesternof the Ethiopia Octlocally-Dec andSudan, heavy southeasternrains Sudan, withshowerseason. more activity.moderatewith more However,(25 moderate-75mm) (25-75mm),many, but wellparts but welldistributed of distributed central rainfall rainfall and totals registered totalssouth reeasterngistered Kenya,elsewhere elsewhere Somalia in the regionin, andthe (Figure southeasternregion 1). In addition, (Figure Et portionshiopia 1). ofdidIn northern Somalia addition,notSince register ptheortions beginningrainsobserved of tonort locally signalhofern heavySeptember Somaliathe shower onset observedactivity., ofincreased the However, Octlocally -andDec many heavy rainsmoreparts of central and showerseason. activity. southeastern However, Kenya, Somalia,many andparts southeastern of central Ethiopia anddid not register rains frequent rainsto signalhave the onsetbeen of theobserved Oct-Dec rains throughout season. many southanomalouslyeastern Kenya, dry parts Somalia of East, and Africa. southeastern Analysis Et hiopiaof 30 -didday not register rains to signal the onset of the Oct-Dec rains Figure 1: NOAA/CPC Sincesatellite the estimated beginningSince therainfall beginning of nowSeptember of shows September, positive, increased increased rainfall and and morecondition frequentmores rains have season. frequentthroughout rains centralbeen have observed Uganda been throughout and observed southeastern many anomalously throughout South dry parts Sudanmany of East. Africa. anomalouslyLatest remotely dryAnalysis sensedparts of 30-day ofvegetation East satellite Africa. estimated health Analysis indicesrainfall now alsoof shows 30 reflect- daypositive rainfall 30-Day Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Anomaly (mm ) Sincesatellitepositive the estimated trendsbeginningconditions over rainfall theseof throughout nowSeptember areas shows central in ,positive recentUgandaincreased andrainfallweeks. southeastern and conditionHowever, more Souths Sudan.Figure Latest 1 : NOAA/CPCValid: September 02 – October 1, 2016 frequentthroughoutbelow averagerains central remotely haveconditions Uganda sensedbeen vegetationremain andobserved southeastern across health indicespartsthroughout Southalsoof reflectthe SudanSNNP,many positive. trends over 30-Day Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Anomaly (mm) anomalouslyLatestOromia, remotely and dry theseSomali sensedparts areas re ofin gvegetation ion recentEast of weeks. southernAfrica. health However, andAnalysis indices below eastern average alsoof Ethiopia30 conditionsreflect-day remain Source: NOAA/CPC across parts of the SNNP, Oromia, and Somali region of southern andFigure eastern 1 : NOAA/CPCValid: September 02 – October 1, 2016 satellitepositive(Figure estimated trends2). On over rainfall the these impending now areas shows onsetin positive recent of therainfallweeks. Oct condition -DecHowever, rainss Figure 2: Satellite-Estimated 90-Day Rainfall throughoutbelowseason, average therecentralEthiopia conditionsis Ugandaopportunity (Figure 2).remainand On theforsoutheastern impendingacrossrecovery parts onset forSouth ofof thethese the Oct-Dec SudanSNNP, areas rains. season, there Percentile (%), Valid: September 02 – October 1, 2016 LatestOromia,experiencing remotely and residualSomaliis sensed opportunity redryness gvegetationion for recoveryof over southern health thefor these n extand indices areas several eastern experiencing also weeks Ethiopia reflect .residual dryness over30 -Day Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Anomaly (mm) positive(Figure trends 2). Ontheover nextthe these several impending areasweeks. inonset recent of theweeks. Oct -However,Dec rains Valid: September 02 – October 1, 2016 season, there is opportunity for recovery for these areas belowFor theaverage upcoming Forconditions the outlook upcoming remain period outlook , across precipitationperiod, precipitationparts modelsof the models SNNP,su ggestsuggest increased Oromia,experiencingincreased and rainfallSomali residualrainfall accumulation accumulationre drynessgion of oversouthern throughout throughout the n ext andsouthern several southerneastern Ethiopia, weeks EthiopiaEthiopia, Somalia,. and eastern (FigureSomalia, 2). and On Kenyaeastern the consistent impending Kenya with consistent the onset onset ofof thewith the Oct-Dec theOct o -rainsDecnset season ofrains the in the region. season,ForOct -theDec thereupcoming rains However, isseason opportunityoutlook it in is possiblethe period regionfor the, precipitation recoveryweekly. However, totals for will itmodels isbethese possiblebelow-average suareasggest the some parts of experiencingincreasedweekly totals rainfall residual southernwill accumulationbe dryness Ethiopia.below -overaverage throughout the nsomeext several southernparts weeksof Ethiopia,southern. Somalia,Ethiopia. and eastern Kenya consistent with the onset of the ForOct the-Dec upcoming rains Favorableseason outlook inearly theperiod season region, rainsprecipitation. However, observed throughout modelsit is possible su southernggest the Africa increasedweekly totals rainfall will accumulation be below-average throughout some southern parts of Ethiopia,southern During the last week, light to moderate rainfall accumulations were received Somalia,Ethiopia.Favorable and early eastern season Kenya rains consistent observed with throughout the onset southern of the Africa. across central and northern portions of Angola, as well as, throughout Oct-Dec rains seasonsouthern in South the Africa. region Unusually. However, moderate it is to possible heavy totals the were alsoFigure received 2 : NOAA/NESDIS weekly totals will be below-average some parts of southern FavorableDuring the early lastacross week,season southern light rains Mozambique. to mobservedoderate Since rainfallthroughout the beginning accumulations ofsouthern September, the location Ethiopia. and quantity of early season rainfall across has generally GFS Total Rainfall Forecast (mm) Africawere .received across central and northern portions of Angola, Source: NOAA/CPC been near average, with the exception of slightly lower than averageFigure totals 2: NOAA/NESDIS as well as, throughout southern South Africa. Unusually Valid: October 5 – October 12, 2016 across the northwestern provinces of Angola. Figure 3: 30-Day Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Duringmoderate the tolast heavy week, totals light were to m oderatealso received rainfall across accumulations southern Anomaly (mm), Valid: October 5 – October 12, Favorable early season rains observed throughout southern GFS Total Rainfall Forecast (mm) wereMozambique. received acrossSince thecentral beginning and northern of September, portions the of Angola,location Africa. During the next seven days, a continuation of increased rainfall is expected Valid: October 5 – October 12, 2016 asand well quan as,tity ofthroughoutas earlyprecipitation season southern should rainfall expand Southacross southward Africa.southern throughout UnusuallyAfrica DRC has and Angola,Figure 2: NOAA/NESDIS Duringmoderategenerall they lasttobeen h andeavyweek, near northward totals light average throughoutwereto m, oderate alsowith South receivedthe rainfall Africa. exception Locallyacross accumulations heavy ofsouthern slightly rainfall amounts wereMozambique.lower received than average across(>75mm) Since totals centralarethe possible beginning across and across northernthe of western northwestern September, portions Angola, with provincestheof lighter Angola,location amounts of potentially GFS Total Rainfall Forecast (mm) and quantity of early season rainfall across southern Africa has asAngola well .as, throughoutreaching the southernsouthern provinces. South In SouthAfrica. Africa, Unusually light to moderate rainfall Valid: October 5 – October 12, 2016 generally beenaccumulations near average are forecast, with forthe much exception of the Kwa-Zulu of slightlyNatal region and moderate to heavy totals were also received across southern lower than averagenorthward totals over across Lesotho theand thenorthwestern Free State of theprovinces country (Figure of 1). Mozambique.During the next Since seven the days, beginning a continuation of September, of increased the location rainfall Angola. andis quanexpectedtity of earlyas seasonprecipitation rainfall shouldacross southernexpand Africasouthward has genthroughouterally been DRC near and average Angola,, andwith northward the exception throughout of slightly South During the next seven days, a continuation of increased rainfall lowerAfrica. than Locall averagey heavy totals rainfall across amounts the northwestern (>75mm) provincesare possible of is expected as precipitation should expand southward Angolaacross. western Angola, with lighter amounts potentially throughoutreaching the DRC southern and Angola, provinces. and northward In South throughout Africa, light South to Africa.moderate Locall rainfally heavy accumulations rainfall amounts are forecast (>75mm) for aremuch possible of the During the next seven days, a continuation of increased rainfall acrossKwa-Zulu western Natal regionAngola, and with northward lighter overamounts Lesotho potentially and the is expected as precipitation should expand southward Source: NOAA/CPC reachingFree State the of thesouthern country provinces. (Figure 1 ). In South Africa, light to Figure 3: NOAA/CPC throughoutmoderate DRCrainfallFamine and accumulations Early Angola, Warning and Systems arenorthward forecast Network throughout for much Southof the 2 Africa.Kwa- Zulu Locall Nataly heavy region rainfall and northwardamounts (>75mm)over Lesotho are possibleand the acrossNote : Twesternhe hazar dsAngola, outlook mapwith on plighterage 1 is basedamounts on current potentially weather/climate information and short and medium range weather foreca sts (up to 1 Freeweek). State It as ofses theses country their po t(entFigureial im pact1). on crop and pasture conditions. SFigurehaded po 3:l y go NOAA/ns are adCPCded in areas where anomalous conditions have reachingbeen obse ther vesouthernd. The bo uprovinces.ndaries of these In pSoutholygons Africa, are on lylight appr oxto imate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range moderateseasonal rainfall climate forecaaccumulationssts or indicate are current forecast or proje forc tedmuch food ofsecuri thety conditions. Note: The hazards outlook map on page 1 is based on current weather/climate information and short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 Kwa -Zulu Natal region and northward over Lesotho and the wQuestionseek). It asor scommentsesses their about po thistent productial im maypact be o ndirected crop toand [email protected] pasture conditions. orSh 1a-ded301- 683pol-y3424.gons are added in areas where anomalous cond itions have Freebeen State obse ofrv theed. countryThe bou ndari(Figurees of 1t)hese. polygons are only approximateFigure at this 3c:o ntin NOAA/ental scale.CPC This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions.

NotQuestionse: The hazaor commentsrds outlook about thismap product on pa mayge 1be i sdirected based to on [email protected] current weather/climate or 1- 301info-683rmat-3424.ion and short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week). It assesses their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions.

Questions or comments about this product may be directed to [email protected] or 1-301-683-3424. Weather Hazards Summary October 7- 13, 2016

Central Weather Hazards

No hazards posted. Flooding Temperatures Abnormal Dryness Above-normal temperatures were observed across Drought most of Central Asia from September 25 to October Severe Drought Tropical Cyclone 1 with the largest anomalies (3 to 5 degrees C) across Potential Locust Outbreak Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, eastern Turkmenistan, and Heavy Snow eastern Uzbekistan. The GFS model indicates that Abnormal Cold above-normal temperatures are likely to persist Abnormal Heat across Central Asia during early October. Subfreezing minimum temperatures are forecast across northeast Kazakhstan and the higher elevations of Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

Precipitation During the final week of September, light to moderate precipitation (2 to 36 mm) was observed across much of Kazakhstan and the western parts of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The CPC unified gauge analysis indicates that precipitation has averaged near to above Source: FEWS NET/NOAA normal throughout nearly the entire region during the past 30 days. Precipitation (2 to 25 mm, or more) is expected to be limited to far northern Kazakhstan during the next week, while dry weather prevails across the remainder of the region.

Central America and the Weather Hazards

1. Matthew made landfall in Haiti on Tuesday 1 morning as a strong Cat 4 Storm. The Storm brought many significant impacts including storm surge along the southern peninsula of Haiti, heavy wind damage, widespread flooding, and landslides. Widespread flooding Flooding Abnormal Dryness occurred across portions of the Dominican Drought Republic as well. After excessive amounts of Severe Drought rain, the residual risk for flooding and landslides No Hazards Tropical Cyclone continues into the beginning of the outlook period. Posted for Potential Locust Outbreak Heavy Snow Abnormal Cold Abnormal Heat

Source: FEWS NET/NOAA

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

Erratic rainfall performance across most of the region continued last week, upholding regional abnormal dryness concerns.

Over the last 7 days, rains were light and scattered across the most of the region. Western/central Nicaragua, especially, saw little precipitation. TRMM estimates indicateWeather that Hazards the greatest Summary rain totals (>100mm) fell over parts of southern Honduras andOctober El Salvador 7- 13,. 2016 Moderate rains were also observed around the Gulf of Belize, southern Guatemala, and in Costa Rica and Panama. The overall pattern was that of suppressed rainfall for the majority of the CentralCentral American America region. and Stheignificant Caribbean negative Overview anomalies were prevalent for the week. Over the course of the past month, the ‘Postrera’ season has generally been a little dryer than normal, with scattered pockets of more wet conditions. The driest area as indicated by Erratic rainfall performance across most of the region continued last week, upholding regional abnormal dryness concerns observed rainfall and soilOver moisture the last 7 days, is central rains were Nicaragua light and scattered and is acrossthe placethe most to of keep the region. a closer Western/central eye on. TheNicaragua, situation especially, is helpedsaw little by a frequent distribution of rain events across the regionprecipitation.. Satellite TRMM vegetation estimates indicate health that products the greatest indicate rain totals tha(>100mm)t conditions fell over onparts the of southernground Hondurasare still and mostly El Salvador. favorable. Moderate rains were also observed around the Gulf of Belize, southern Guatemala, and in Costa Rica and Panama. The overall pattern Rain is forecasted to bewas slightly that of suppressedbelow average rainfall for for the northern majority of andthe Central eastern American portions region. of Significant Central negative America anomalies. Above were-average prevalent rainfor the is forecasted to the south and west. The greatestweek. amounts Over the of course rain (>150mm)of the past month, will thelikely ‘Postrera’ be found season inhas P generallyacific facing been a little departmen dryer thant ofnormal, Nicaragua with scattered and topockets the ofsouth in Costa Rica and Panama. Predominatelymore light wet rain conditions. for areas The driestof central area as indicatedGuatemala by observed and northernrainfall and Honduras,soil moisture is mightcentral beNicaragua welcome and is theafter place some to keep recent a flooding concerns in those areas. closer eye on. The situation is helped by a frequent distribution of rain events across the region.

Rain is forecasted to be slightly below average for northern and eastern portions of Central America. Above-average rain is forecasted to the south and west. The greatest amounts of rain (>150mm) will likely be found in Pacific facing department of Nicaragua and to the south in Costa Rica and Panama.Week Predominately 1 Rainfall light rain Total for areas and of centralAnomaly Guatemala Forecast and northern (mm) Honduras, might be welcome after some recent flooding concerns in those areas. October 06 –October 12, 2016 Figure 1: Seven-Day Total Rainfall Forecast (mm) Figure 1: Seven-Day Total Rainfall Forecast Anomaly (mm) Valid: October 06 –October 12, 2016 Valid: October 06 –October 12, 2016

Source: NOAA/CPC Source: NOAA/CPC Figure 1:Flood Source and landslide NOAA threats / CPC will continue after Matthew hit the Hispaniola hard Matthew made landfall near the town of Les Anglais, Haiti at 7am on Tuesday as a strong Cat 4 Storm. The Storm brought many significant impacts including storm surge along the southern peninsula of Haiti, heavy wind damage, wide- spread flooding, and landslides. Widespread flooding occurred across portions of the Dominican Republic as well. Reports indicate that is this is Haiti’s worst Humanitarian disaster since the 2010 earthquake. 5 deaths have been reported in Haiti and 4 in the Questions or comments about this product may be directed to [email protected] or 1-301-683-3424. Dominican Republic and those totals are sadly, likely to rise. TRMM estimates through the end of Tuesday indicate that more than 200mm of rain has fallen from the system in parts of southern and eastern Haiti. Similar totals are estimated in eastern Dominican Republic as well. Locally, rainfall totals for the entire event may be much higher. TRMM shows large positive weekly rainfall anoma- lies over the Island. Over the course of the last 30 days, deficits predominated many (especially coastal) parts of the island pre Mat- thew. Without any extended dry spells, vegetation Indices and field reports indicated that cropping activities and conditions on the ground were in good shape. Matthew’s heavy rains will have flipped any moisture deficits to surpluses across most of the island, but they may have also ruined many fields. A period of calmer weather should follow the storm during the coming week. However seasonable showers and thunderstorms are likely over the eastern and central parts of Hispaniola. Even these could be enough to cause further landslides and hamper recovery after Matthew.

ABOUT WEATHER HAZARDS Hazard maps are based on current weather/climate information, short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week) and their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4