FEWS NET FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK Global Weather Hazards Summary October 7- 13, 2016 Flood and landslide threats will continue after Matthew hit the Hispaniola region hard Africa Weather Hazards Flooding Abnormal Dryness Drought Severe Drought Tropical Cyclone Potential Locust Outbreak Heavy Snow Abnormal Cold Abnormal Heat Seasonally Dry 2 4 1. Prolonged heavy rainfall during the season 1 3 throughout the Niger River basin has triggered flooding and inundation along the Niger River in Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. Seasonal Inundation is also expected to be greater than it has been for many years across the inner Niger delta in Mali 2. Low and poorly distributed seasonal rainfall across parts of central Senegal and The Gambia have led to strengthening moisture deficits 3. Below-average seasonal rainfall and persistent moisture deficits in the region have negatively impacted developing crops across parts of the eastern Oromia and SNNP provinces of Ethiopia. Source: FEWS NET/NOAA 4. There is a potential for increased number of locusts migrating from the Arabian Peninsula which may negatively impact cropping activities. FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. The FEWS NET weather hazards process and products include participation by FEWS NET field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, USDA, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries concerned. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to [email protected], [email protected], or 1-301-683-3424. Increased rains received across East Africa. Satellite-Estimated Total Rainfall (mm) Valid: September 25 – October 1, 2016 During the past seven days, higher rainfall accumulations were Increasedreceived rainsacross received much across of eastern East Africa Africa. compared to the Satellite-Estimated Total Rainfall (mm) previous week.Weather According Hazards Summaryto satellite rainfall estimates, the Valid: September 25October – October 7- 113,, 201 20166 Duringhighest the weekly past seven precipitation days, higher amounts rainfall accumulation(>100mm) s werewere Increased rains received across East Africa. receivedregistered across acrossAfrica muchwestern Overview of Ethiopiaeastern andAfrica southeastern compared Sudan,to the Satellite-Estimated Total Rainfall (mm) Valid: September 25 – October 1, 2016 previouswith more week. moderate According (25-75mm) to satellite, but wellrainfall distributed estimates, rainfall the During the past Increasedseven days, rains received higher acrossrainfall East accumulation Africa s were Figure 1: Satellite-Estimated Total Rainfall (mm) highesttotals registeredweekly elsewhereprecipitation in amountsthe region (>100mm)(Figure 1).were In Valid: September 25 – October 1, 2016 received across much of eastern Africa compared to the registeredaddition, p acrossortions westernof north ernEthiopia Somalia and observed southeastern locally Sudan, heavy previous week. During According the past sevento satellite days, higher rainfall rainfall accumulationsestimates, t hewere received withshower more activity. moderateacross much However,(25 of- 75mm)eastern manyAfrica, but compared wellparts distributed toof the central previous rainfall week.and According highesttotalssouth easternreweeklygistered toKenya, satellite precipitationelsewhere Somaliarainfall estimates, in, andamountsthe southeastern theregion highest (>100mm) ( Figureweekly Et hiopiaprecipitation 1).were didIn amounts registeredaddition,not register pacrossortions rains(>100mm) western of to nort weresignalh ernEthiopia registered theSomalia onset acrossand observed southeasternwesternof the Ethiopia Octlocally-Dec andSudan, heavy southeasternrains Sudan, withshowerseason. more activity.moderatewith more However,(25 moderate-75mm) (25-75mm),many, but wellparts but welldistributed of distributed central rainfall rainfall and totals registered totalssouth reeasterngistered Kenya,elsewhere elsewhere Somalia in the regionin, andthe (Figure southeasternregion 1). In addition, (Figure Et portionshiopia 1). ofdidIn northern Somalia addition,notSince register ptheortions beginningrainsobserved of tonort locally signalhofern heavySeptember Somaliathe shower onset observedactivity., ofincreased the However, Octlocally -andDec many heavy rainsmoreparts of central and showerseason. activity. southeastern However, Kenya, Somalia,many andparts southeastern of central Ethiopia anddid not register rains frequent rainsto signalhave the onsetbeen of theobserved Oct-Dec rains throughout season. many southanomalouslyeastern Kenya, dry parts Somalia of East, and Africa. southeastern Analysis Et hiopiaof 30 -didday not register rains to signal the onset of the Oct-Dec rains Figure 1: NOAA/CPC Sincesatellite the estimated beginningSince therainfall beginning of nowSeptember of shows September, positive, increased increased rainfall and and morecondition frequentmores rains have season. frequentthroughout rains centralbeen have observed Uganda been throughout and observed southeastern many anomalously throughout South dry parts Sudanmany of East. Africa. anomalouslyLatest remotely dryAnalysis sensedparts of 30-day ofvegetation East satellite Africa. estimated health Analysis indicesrainfall now alsoof shows 30 reflect- daypositive rainfall 30-Day Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Anomaly (mm ) Sincesatellitepositive the estimated trendsbeginningconditions over rainfall theseof throughout nowSeptember areas shows central in ,positive recentUgandaincreased andrainfallweeks. southeastern and conditionHowever, more Souths Sudan.Figure Latest 1 : NOAA/CPCValid: September 02 – October 1, 2016 frequentthroughoutbelow averagerains central remotely haveconditions Uganda sensedbeen vegetationremain andobserved southeastern across health indicespartsthroughout Southalsoof reflectthe SudanSNNP,many positive. trends over 30-Day Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Anomaly (mm) anomalouslyLatestOromia, remotely and dry theseSomali sensedparts areas re ofin gvegetation ion recentEast of weeks. southernAfrica. health However, andAnalysis indices below eastern average alsoof Ethiopia30 conditionsreflect-day remain Source: NOAA/CPC across parts of the SNNP, Oromia, and Somali region of southern andFigure eastern 1 : NOAA/CPCValid: September 02 – October 1, 2016 satellitepositive(Figure estimated trends2). On over rainfall the these impending now areas shows onsetin positive recent of therainfallweeks. Oct condition -DecHowever, rainss Figure 2: Satellite-Estimated 90-Day Rainfall throughoutbelowseason, average therecentralEthiopia conditionsis Ugandaopportunity (Figure 2).remainand On theforsoutheastern impendingacrossrecovery parts onset forSouth ofof thethese the Oct-Dec SudanSNNP, areas rains. season, there Percentile (%), Valid: September 02 – October 1, 2016 LatestOromia,experiencing remotely and residualSomaliis sensed opportunity redryness gvegetationion for recoveryof over southern health thefor these n extand indices areas several eastern experiencing also weeks Ethiopia reflect .residual dryness over30 -Day Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Anomaly (mm) positive(Figure trends 2). Ontheover nextthe these several impending areasweeks. inonset recent of theweeks. Oct -However,Dec rains Valid: September 02 – October 1, 2016 season, there is opportunity for recovery for these areas belowFor theaverage upcoming Forconditions the outlook upcoming remain period outlook , across precipitationperiod, precipitationparts modelsof the models SNNP,su ggestsuggest increased Oromia,experiencingincreased and rainfallSomali residualrainfall accumulation accumulationre drynessgion of oversouthern throughout throughout the n ext andsouthern several southerneastern Ethiopia, weeks EthiopiaEthiopia, Somalia,. and eastern (FigureSomalia, 2). and On Kenyaeastern the consistent impending Kenya with consistent the onset onset ofof thewith the Oct-Dec theOct o -rainsDecnset season ofrains the in the region. season,ForOct -theDec thereupcoming rains However, isseason opportunityoutlook it in is possiblethe period regionfor the, precipitation recoveryweekly. However, totals for will itmodels isbethese possiblebelow-average suareasggest the some parts of experiencingincreasedweekly totals rainfall residual southernwill accumulationbe dryness Ethiopia.below -overaverage throughout the nsomeext several southernparts weeksof Ethiopia,southern. Somalia,Ethiopia. and eastern Kenya consistent with the onset of the ForOct the-Dec upcoming rains Favorableseason outlook inearly theperiod season region, rainsprecipitation. However, observed throughout modelsit is possible su southernggest the Africa increasedweekly totals rainfall will accumulation be below-average throughout some southern parts of Ethiopia,southern During the last week, light to moderate rainfall accumulations were received Somalia,Ethiopia.Favorable and early eastern season Kenya rains consistent observed with throughout the onset southern of the Africa. across central and northern portions of Angola, as well as, throughout Oct-Dec rains seasonsouthern in South the Africa. region Unusually. However, moderate it is to possible heavy totals the were alsoFigure received 2 : NOAA/NESDIS weekly totals will be below-average some parts of southern FavorableDuring the early lastacross week,season southern light rains Mozambique. to mobservedoderate Since rainfallthroughout the beginning accumulations