FEWS NET FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

Global Weather Hazards Summary September 29-October 5, 2016

Tropical cyclone Matthew expected to impact Hispaniola

Africa Weather Hazards

Flooding Abnormal Dryness Drought Severe Drought Tropical Cyclone Potential Locust Outbreak Heavy Snow Abnormal Cold Abnormal Heat Seasonally Dry 2 4 1. Prolonged heavy rainfall during the season 1 3 throughout the basin has triggered flooding and inundation along the Niger River in , Niger, and Nigeria. Seasonal Inundation is also expected to be greater than it has been for many years across the inner in Mali.

2. Low and poorly distributed seasonal rainfall across parts of central Senegal and The Gambia have led to strengthening moisture deficits.

3. Below-average seasonal rainfall and persistent moisture deficits in the have negatively impacted developing crops across parts of the eastern Oromia and SNNP provinces of Ethiopia. Similar conditions have also negatively impacted ground conditions in many parts of Uganda, South , and Source: FEWS NET/NOAA eastern DRC.

4. There is a potential for increased number of locusts migrating from the which may negatively impact cropping activities.

FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. The FEWS NET weather hazards process and products include participation by FEWS NET field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, USDA, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries concerned. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to [email protected], [email protected], or 1-301-683-3424.

Average to above-average rains prevailed across West Satellite-Estimated Total Rainfall (mm) even as the ITF continues its seasonal southward retreat. Valid: September 21 – September 27, 2016

AverageSeasonable to abovemoderate-average to h eavyrains rain prevailed was observed across Westacross Africa most Satellite-Estimated Total Rainfall (mm) evenof the as theregion WeatherITF continuesthis Hazardspast itsweek seasonal Summary according southwar tod satelliteretreat. rainfall Valid: SeptemberSeptember 21 – 29-OctoberSeptember 2 5,7 , 20162016 estimates. The core of greater-than-average precipitation AverageSeasonablespread to acrossabove moderateAfrica- averagethe Overview to hsouthernrainseavy rainprevailed wasWest observed acrossAfrican Westacross nationsAfrica most . Satellite-Estimated Total Rainfall (mm) evenof theas the region ITF continues this past its week seasonal according southwar tod retreat.satellite rainfall Valid: September 21 – September 27, 2016 AccumulationsAverage greater to above-averagethan 100mm rains were prevailed received across in West Africa, even as the ITF Figure 1: Satellite-Estimated Total Rainfall (mm) estimates.Sierra Leone, The Liberia, core Ghana,of greater Togo-than and-average Nigeria precipitation(Figure 1). Valid: September 21 – September 27, 2016 Seasonable moderatecontinues to its h eavyseasonal rain southward was observed retreat. across most spreadNorthern acrossparts of the region,southern including West Mauritania African andnations Niger. ofA haveccumulationsthe regionbegun tothis gre dry aterpast out than. weekModerate 100 ammccording rains were spreadreceivedto satellite in toin southernGrainfalluinea, estimates. TheSeasonable core of moderate greater to heavy-than rain-average was observed precipitation across most of the region Sierraportions Leone, of Cote thisLiberia, D’Ivoire past week Ghana, and according Benin Togo to. satellite and rainfallNigeria estimates. (Figure The 1 core). of greater- spreadNorthern across partsthan-average of thethe region,southern precipitation including Westspread Mauritania acrossAfrican the southern andnations NigerWest. African nations. AccumulationshaveMost begunof the togre Accumulations Westdryater out thanA. fricaModerate greater1 00regionmm than rainswere 100mmshows spreadreceived were positive received in toin southern G inuinea rainfallGuinea,, Sierra Leone, Sierraportionsanomalies Leone, of Coteover Liberia,Liberia, D’Ivoirethe Ghana, previousGhana, and Togo Benin andTogo30 Nigeria-.day and period(Figure Nigeria 1).. DeficitsNorthern (Figure partsremain 1 of). the region, Northernonly in centralparts includingof Senegal, the Mauritaniaregion, the Gambiaincluding and Niger, scattered have Mauritania begun partsto dry and out.of Liberia NigerModerate rains spread haveMostand begun centralof theto Nigeria. intodryWest southern out Moisture.A Moderatefrica portions regiondeficits of rainsCote showshave D’Ivoirespread been andpositive in Benin.persistentto southern rainfall for portionsanomaliesthe longest of Cote over in centralD’Ivoire the previous Senegal and Benin 30and.- day the periodGambia,. Deficits but rains remain have Most of the region shows positive rainfall anomalies over the onlystill inbeen central occurring Senegal, with the Gambiarelative , frequenscatteredcy. parts As ofa Liberiaresult, Figure 1: NOAA/CPC Most of the Westprevious A30-dayfrica period.region Deficits shows remain positiveonly in central rainfall Senegal, the Gambia, andcropping central activities Nigeria.scattered have Moisture parts not of Liberiaappeareddeficits and havecentral to be beenNigeria. greatly persistent Moisture affected deficits for. have been anomaliestheWidely longest persistent over in persistent centralthe h eavyprevious Senegal for theand longest 30aboveand-day in the -central averageperiod Gambia, Senegal. rainfallDeficits butand ther ainssince Gambia,remain have late but rains have Satellite Estimated Vegetation Health index (VHI) onlystillJuly in been incentral the regionoccurring Senegal,still beencontinues withoccurringthe Gambia relto ativewithcause relative, scatteredfrequen flood frequency.ingcy. partsissues As As aof aalongresult, Liberiaresult cropping the, Figureactivities 1: NOAA/CPCValid: September 16 – September 22, 2016 andcroppingNiger central R iveractivities Nigeria. inhave Mali, not haveMoisture appeared Niger, not deficitstoappearedand be greatlyNigeria have affected.to .be beenVegetation greatly Widelypersistent persistentaffected Indices for . heavy and above- Satellite Estimated Vegetation Health index (VHI) theWidelyindicate longest persistent normalin centralaverage toheavy Senegalrainfallbetter and since-than aabove ndlate-normal theJuly-average inGambia, the vegetation region rainfall but continues r ainssinceconditions tohave latecause flooding issues Source: NOAA/CPC along the Niger River in Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. Vegetation IndicesFigure indicate 1 : Valid:NOAA/CPC September 16 – September 22, 2016 stillJulyacross been in the theoccurring region entire continues regionwith rel (toFigureative cause frequen 2flood). Trendsingcy. issues As indicate aalong result thatthe, Figure 2: Satellite-Estimated 90-Day Rainfall croppingNigerconditions R activitiesiver continue innormal Mali, have toto better-than-normalNiger, getnot greenerappeared and Nigeria and vegetationto lusher..be Vegetation greatly conditionsThis affectedis Indicestr acrossue in. the entire region Percentile (%), Valid: September 16 – September 22, WidelyindicateSenegal persistent normalwhere(Figure formallyhtoeavy 2).better Trends and poor-than indicateabove index-normal -thataverage values conditions vegetation associatedrainfall continue sinceconditions withto getlate the greener and lusher.Satellite Estimated Vegetation Health index (VHI) Julyacrossabnormal in the the region dryness entireThis continues is are trueregion showing in Senegal to(Figure cause rapidwhere floodformallyimprovement.2). Trendsing poor issues index indicate valuesalong associated thatthe with the Valid: September 16 – September 22, 2016 Nigerconditions River continuein abnormalMali, toNiger, dryness get greener andare showing Nigeria and rapid lusher.. Vegetationimprovement. This is Indices true in Senegal where formally poor index values associated with the indicateFor the normal upcomingFor to the outlookbetter upcoming- thanperiod outlook-normal, precipitationperiod, vegetation precipitation models conditionsmodels su ggestsuggest that acrossabnormalthat the the monsoon drynessentirethe monsoon arecirculationregion showing circulation(Figure will rapid continue will 2improvement. )continue. Trends to shiftto shiftindicate further further south thatsouth. . Enhanced conditionsEnhanced continue precipitationprecipitation to get is is greener forecasted and for for manylusher. many of the Thisofwestern the is westerntrGulfue of inGuinea countries. SenegalForGulf the of whereGuineaupcoming formally countries. outlook poor period index, precipitationvalues associated models with suggest the abnormalthat the monsoondrynessSome are circulation signs showing of improving will rapid continue moisture improvement. deficitsto shift are further visible south in Uganda. Enhanced precipitation is forecasted for many of the western ForGulfSome the of upcomingsigns Guinea of Moderateimprovingcountries. outlook to heavy moistureperiod rains, precipitation weredeficits spread are throughout visible models in most Ugandasuggest of the. climatologically that the monsoonfavored circulation areas during will the continue past week. to The shift largest further totals, south greater. than 100mm, were primarily clustered in western Ethiopia and neighboring portions of Enhanced Moderate pr toecipitation heavy rains is forecasted were spread for throughoutmany of the most western of the Some signs of Sudanimproving and South moisture Sudan (Figuredeficits 3). areLighter visible and slightly in Uganda below-normal. Figure rainfall 2: NOAA/NESDIS Gulfclimatologically of Guinea countries. favored areas during the past week. The largest totals, wasgreater observed than in parts100m ofm, west-central were primarily Ethiopia. Despiteclustered the Africanin ITF’s recent location south of its average position, much of Sudan, portions of 7-Day Satellite Estimated Rainfall Anomaly Moderatewestern Ethiopia to heavy and rains neighboring were spread portions throughout of Sudan most and ofSouth the Source: NOAA/CPC Eritrea and northwestern Ethiopia still exhibit significant rainfall Figuresurpluses 2: Valid: NOAA/ SeptemberNESDIS 21 – September 27, 2016 SomeclimatologicallySudan signs (Figure of improving favored3). Lighter moisture areas and deficits duringslightly are thebelow visible past-normal inweek. Uganda rainfall The. Figure 3: 30-Day Satellite-Estimated Rainfall largest totals, overgreater the last than 30 days.100m A secondm, were week primarily of near to clusteredabove-average in across Uganda was observedhas in begun parts to relieveof west moisture-central deficits Ethiopia there. .Suppressed Despite andthe erratic rainfall Anomaly (mm), Valid: September 21 – September 27, western Ethiopia and neighboring portions of Sudan and South 7-Day Satellite Estimated Rainfall Anomaly ModerateAfrican ITF’sto heavy recentsince Augustrains location haswere persisted south spread of for its portionsthroughout average of central positi most Ethiopia,on, of much the southern South Valid: September 21 – September 27, 2016 climatologicallySudanof Sudan, (Figure portions Sudan,favored 3). whereLighterof Eritreaareas negative and andduring anomaliesslightly northwestern the belowremain past little-normal week.Ethiopia changed. rainfall The stillComparison Figure with 2: NOAA/NESDIS larwasexhibitgest observedtotals, significant greaterremotely in partsrainfall than sensed of 100m surpluses vegetationwestm,-central were overhealth primarilyEthiopia indicesthe last still. clustered Despite30 corroborates days. thein A a shortage of westernAfricansecond Ethiopia ITF’s week recent available ofand near locationneighboring ground to above moisture, south -portionsaverage of most its averagenotably ofacross Sudan in thepositi Uganda centralandon, South Oromiamuch has region of 7-Day Satellite Estimated Rainfall Anomaly of Sudan, portions of Eritrea and northwestern Ethiopia still Valid: September 21 – September 27, 2016 Sudanbegun ( Figureto relieve Ethiopia3 )moist. Lighter andure in deficitssouthernand slightly there.Uganda. S belowuppressed-normal and rainfall erratic exhibit significant rainfall surpluses over the last 30 days. A wasrainfall observed since inAugust parts ofha swest persisted-central forEthiopia portions. Despite of central the second week Forof thenear upcoming to above outlook-average period, a widespreadacross Uganda seasonable has distribution AfricanEthiopia, ITF’s southern recent location South southSudan, of itswhere average negative positi on,anomalies much begun to relieveof precipitationmoisture deficits is expected there. across Suppressed the region, and and enhanced erratic rainfall is of remainSudan, littleportions changed of Eritrea. Comparison and northwestern with remotely Ethiopia sensed still rainfall since forecastedAugust forha westerns persisted Ethiopia. for A beneficial portions enhancement of central of rains is possible exhibitvegetation significant health rainfall indices surpluses still corrobora over thetes last a 30shortage days. Aof Ethiopia, southernfor Uganda. South Sudan, where negative anomalies secondavailable week ground of near moisture to above, most-average notably acrossin the centralUganda Oromia has remainregion oflittle Ethiopia changed and in. southernComparison Uganda. with remotely sensed begunvegetation to relieve health moist indicesure deficits still there.corrobora Suppressedtes a shortage and erratic of rainfallavailable since ground August moisture has , persistedmost notably for inportions the central of centralOromia Ethiopia,For the southernupcoming South outlook Sudan, period where, a widespread negative seasonableanomalies regiondistribution of Ethiopia of precipitation and in southern is expected Uganda. across the region, and remain little changed. Comparison with remotely sensed enhanced rainfall is forecasted for western Ethiopia. A Source: NOAA/CPC vegetation health indices still corroborates a shortage of Figure 3: NOAA/CPC Forbeneficial the upcoming enhancementFamine Earlyoutlook Warning of rainsperiod Systemsis ,possible a widespread Network for Uganda. seasonable 2 availabledistribution ground of precipitation moisture, most is expected notably acrossin the centralthe region, Oromia and regionNot eof: T Ethiopiahe hazards and outlook in southern map on p Uganda.age 1 is based on current weather/climate information and short and medium range weather foreca sts (up to 1 enhancedweek). It as sraesinfallses t heiris poforecastedtential impact for on cwesternrop and p astureEthiopia con.d itiAons. SFigurehaded po 3:l y go NOAA/ns are adCPCded in areas where anomalous conditions have beneficialbeen obse enhancementrved. The bou ndariof rainses of is t hesepossible poly gforons Uganda. are only approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range For seatheso nalupcoming climate foreca outlooksts or periodindicate, caurrent widespread or projected seasonable food security conditions. Note: The hazards outlook map on page 1 is based on current weather/climate information and short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 distribution of precipitation is expected across the region, and wQuestionseek). It asor scommentsesses their about po thistent productial im maypact be o ndirected crop toand [email protected] pasture conditions. orSh 1a-ded301- 683pol-y3424.gons are added in areas where anomalous cond itions have enhancedbeen obse rarvinfalled. The is bo uforecastedndaries of t hesefor powesternlygons are Ethiopia only appr. oxAimate Figure at this 3c:o ntin NOAA/ental scale.CPC This product does not reflect long range beneficialseasonal enhancement climate forecas tsof or rains indicate is possible current or for proje Uganda.cted foo d security conditions.

NotQuestionse: The hazaor commentsrds outlook about thismap product on p amayge 1be i sdirected based to on [email protected] current weather/climate or 1- 301info-683rmat-3424.ion and short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week). It assesses their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions.

Questions or comments about this product may be directed to [email protected] or 1-301-683-3424. Weather Hazards Summary September 29 -October 5, 2016

Central Weather Hazards

No hazards posted. Flooding Temperatures Abnormal Dryness Above-normal temperatures were observed across Drought throughout the region from September 18 to 24 with Severe Drought Tropical Cyclone the largest anomalies across Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Potential Locust Outbreak Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The GFS model Heavy Snow indicates that above-normal temperatures are likely Abnormal Cold to persist across Central Asia into the beginning of Abnormal Heat October. Minimum temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing except for the higher elevations of Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

Precipitation Little to no precipitation occurred across most of Central Asia from September 18 to 24, although isolated showers continued across northern Pakistan. The CPC unified gauge analysis indicates small precipitation deficits (less than 25 mm) limited to northeast Kazakhstan during the past 30 days. Source: FEWS NET/NOAA

A low pressure system is forecast to track east across Kazakhstan during the next week. This low pressure system is expected to bring widespread rainfall (locally more than 25 mm) to Kazakhstan along with northern parts of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. This rainfall is expected to eliminate the short-term precipitation deficits across northeast Kazakhstan.

Central America and the Weather Hazards

1. Locally heavy rainfall during the last week has 3 resulted in flooding, displaced populations, and landslides in the higher elevations across the Chiquimula, Guatemala, Retalhuleu, Suchitepequez, and Zacapa departments of 32 Guatemala. Flooding 1 Abnormal Dryness Drought 2. Seasonal rains have led to flooding along the Severe Drought Ulua River in western Honduras. Additional No Hazards Tropical Cyclone rains during late September and early October may Posted for Potential Locust Outbreak worsen ground conditions and adversely impact the Cortes, Heavy Snow Abnormal Cold Yoro and Atlantida departments of the country. Abnormal Heat

3. The development and nearby passage of Tropical Cyclone “Matthew” may negatively impact many parts of southern and western Hispaniola with possible high winds, flooding and damages to infrastructure.

Source: FEWS NET/NOAA

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3 Following a brief period of suppressed rainfall, Guatemala registers heavy precipitation during the last week.

During the last week, locally heavy rains trigger flooding, landslides and thousands of displaced people throughout several departments of Guatemala. In addition,Weather increased Hazards rains Summary have also led to flooding along the Ulua River in westernSeptember Honduras 29-October affecting the 5, 2016Yoro, Cortes and Atlantida departments of the country. According to satellite rainfall estimates, large rainfall accumulations (>100mm) were also registered over northern and southern Guatemala, theCentral Gulf Americaof Fonseca and regionthe Caribbean, and northern Overview Costa Rica. Since late August, the performance of seasonal rainfall has generally favorable and much improved following a period of suppressed rainfall early in the Postrera season for several areas. The frequency of seasonal rainfall has also been Followingaverage a briefto aboveperiod of-average suppressed since rainfall, late Guatemala August, registers as heavyvery precipitationfew areas duringhave the experienced last week prolonged dry spells to impede the During the last week, locally heavy rains trigger flooding, landslides and thousands of displaced people throughout several departments development of crops. of Guatemala. In addition, increased rains have also led to flooding along the Ulua River in western Honduras affecting the Yoro, Cortes and Atlantida departments of the country. According to satellite rainfall estimates, large rainfall accumulations (>100mm) During the next week, werethe alsopotential registered for over locally northern torrential and southern rainfall Guatemala, is forecast the Gulf of along Fonseca many region, andPacific northern departments Costa Rica. Since of lateCentral August, America, as well as, over interior parts of Guatemala.the performance Elsewhere of seasonal, average rainfall tohas below generally-average favorable andrainfall much improvedis expected following. Reduced a period of seasonalsuppressed rainfallrainfall early is in e thexpected over many parts of Honduras, Nicaragua, Postreraand Costa season Rica for several. The areas. development The frequency ofof seasonaltropical rainfall cyclone has also Matthew been average is toexpected above-average to traverse since late August, the southern as very Caribbean; however, models suggest no impactfew areasof the have storm experienced over prolongedCentral America.dry spells to impede the development of crops.

During the next week, the potential for locally torrential rainfall is forecast along many Pacific departments of Central America, as well as, over interior parts of Guatemala. Elsewhere, average to below-average rainfall is expected. Reduced seasonal rainfall is expected over many parts of Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. The development of tropical cyclone Matthew is expected to traverse the southern Caribbean; however, models suggest no impactWeek of the1 Rainfall storm over TotalCentral ForecastAmerica. (mm) September 27 – October 4, 2016 Figure 1: Seven-Day Total Rainfall Forecast (mm) Figure 1: Seven-Day Total Rainfall Forecast Anomaly (mm) Valid: September 27 – October 4, 2016 Valid: September 27 – October 4, 2016

Source: NOAA/CPC Source: NOAA/CPC Figure 1: Source NOAA / CPC Tropical cyclone Matthew expected to impact Hispaniola

In the last seven days, the continuation of locally heavy rainfall was observed throughout central and eastern Haiti, with more moderately seasonable totals received in the northern and southern departments. While rains have gradually improved in quan- Questions or comments about this producttity and may spatial be directed extent to [email protected] over the past several or weeks, 1-301-68 moderate3-3424. to strong seasonal moisture deficits remain across parts of northern and northwestern Haiti, as many local areas have experienced erratic rains amounting to nearly half of their normal rainfall ac- cumulation since late June. Remotely sensed vegetation health indices also depict unfavorable ground conditions in the region. For the upcoming outlook period, models indicate the development of a tropical system in the Atlantic, which is forecast to strengthen as it approaches the Caribbean and track northward near Hispaniola. While enhanced rainfall may help alleviate the anomalous dryness over Haiti, there is an increased likelihood for locally heavy rainfall, high winds, and flooding over western Hispaniola. Heavy rains may also trigger landslides in the higher elevations during the next seven days.

ABOUT WEATHER HAZARDS Hazard maps are based on current weather/climate information, short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week) and their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4