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Fews Net Famine Early Warning Systems Network FEWS NET FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK Global Weather Hazards Summary September 29-October 5, 2016 Tropical cyclone Matthew expected to impact Hispaniola Africa Weather Hazards Flooding Abnormal Dryness Drought Severe Drought Tropical Cyclone Potential Locust Outbreak Heavy Snow Abnormal Cold Abnormal Heat Seasonally Dry 2 4 1. Prolonged heavy rainfall during the season 1 3 throughout the Niger River basin has triggered flooding and inundation along the Niger River in Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. Seasonal Inundation is also expected to be greater than it has been for many years across the inner Niger delta in Mali. 2. Low and poorly distributed seasonal rainfall across parts of central Senegal and The Gambia have led to strengthening moisture deficits. 3. Below-average seasonal rainfall and persistent moisture deficits in the region have negatively impacted developing crops across parts of the eastern Oromia and SNNP provinces of Ethiopia. Similar conditions have also negatively impacted ground conditions in many parts of Uganda, South Sudan, and Source: FEWS NET/NOAA eastern DRC. 4. There is a potential for increased number of locusts migrating from the Arabian Peninsula which may negatively impact cropping activities. FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. The FEWS NET weather hazards process and products include participation by FEWS NET field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, USDA, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries concerned. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to [email protected], [email protected], or 1-301-683-3424. Average to above-average rains prevailed across West Africa Satellite-Estimated Total Rainfall (mm) even as the ITF continues its seasonal southward retreat. Valid: September 21 – September 27, 2016 AverageSeasonable to abovemoderate-average to h eavyrains rain prevailed was observed across Westacross Africa most Satellite-Estimated Total Rainfall (mm) evenof the as theregion WeatherITF continuesthis Hazardspast itsweek seasonal Summary according southwar tod satelliteretreat. rainfall Valid: SeptemberSeptember 21 – 29-OctoberSeptember 2 5,7 , 20162016 estimates. The core of greater-than-average precipitation AverageSeasonablespread to acrossabove moderateAfrica- averagethe Overview to hsouthernrainseavy rainprevailed wasWest observed acrossAfrican Westacross nationsAfrica most . Satellite-Estimated Total Rainfall (mm) evenof theas the region ITF continues this past its week seasonal according southwar tod retreat.satellite rainfall Valid: September 21 – September 27, 2016 AccumulationsAverage greater to above-averagethan 100mm rains were prevailed received across in West Guinea Africa, even as the ITF Figure 1: Satellite-Estimated Total Rainfall (mm) estimates.Sierra Leone, The Liberia, core Ghana,of greater Togo-than and-average Nigeria precipitation(Figure 1). Valid: September 21 – September 27, 2016 Seasonable moderatecontinues to its h eavyseasonal rain southward was observed retreat. across most spreadNorthern acrossparts of the region,southern including West Mauritania African andnations Niger. ofA haveccumulationsthe regionbegun tothis gre dry aterpast out than. weekModerate 100 ammccording rains were spreadreceivedto satellite in toin southernGrainfalluinea, estimates. TheSeasonable core of moderate greater to heavy-than rain-average was observed precipitation across most of the region Sierraportions Leone, of Cote thisLiberia, D’Ivoire past week Ghana, and according Benin Togo to. satellite and rainfallNigeria estimates. (Figure The 1 core). of greater- spreadNorthern across partsthan-average of thethe region,southern precipitation including Westspread Mauritania acrossAfrican the southern andnations NigerWest. African nations. AccumulationshaveMost begunof the togre Accumulations Westdryater out thanA. fricaModerate greater1 00regionmm than rainswere 100mmshows spreadreceived were positive received in toin southern G inuinea rainfallGuinea,, Sierra Leone, Sierraportionsanomalies Leone, of Coteover Liberia,Liberia, D’Ivoirethe Ghana, previousGhana, and Togo Benin andTogo30 Nigeria-.day and period(Figure Nigeria 1).. DeficitsNorthern (Figure partsremain 1 of). the region, Northernonly in centralparts includingof Senegal, the Mauritaniaregion, the Gambiaincluding and Niger, scattered have Mauritania begun partsto dry and out.of Liberia NigerModerate rains spread haveMostand begun centralof theto Nigeria. intodryWest southern out Moisture.A Moderatefrica portions regiondeficits of rainsCote showshave D’Ivoirespread been andpositive in Benin.persistentto southern rainfall for portionsanomaliesthe longest of Cote over in centralD’Ivoire the previous Senegal and Benin 30and.- day the periodGambia,. Deficits but rains remain have Most of the West Africa region shows positive rainfall anomalies over the onlystill inbeen central occurring Senegal, with the Gambiarelative , frequenscatteredcy. parts As ofa Liberiaresult, Figure 1: NOAA/CPC Most of the Westprevious A30-dayfrica period.region Deficits shows remain positiveonly in central rainfall Senegal, the Gambia, andcropping central activities Nigeria.scattered have Moisture parts not of Liberiaappeareddeficits and havecentral to be beenNigeria. greatly persistent Moisture affected deficits for. have been anomaliestheWidely longest persistent over in persistent centralthe h eavyprevious Senegal for theand longest 30aboveand-day in the -central averageperiod Gambia, Senegal. rainfallDeficits butand ther ainssince Gambia,remain have late but rains have Satellite Estimated Vegetation Health index (VHI) onlystillJuly in been incentral the regionoccurring Senegal,still beencontinues withoccurringthe Gambia relto ativewithcause relative, scatteredfrequen flood frequency.ingcy. partsissues As As aof aalongresult, Liberiaresult cropping the, Figureactivities 1: NOAA/CPCValid: September 16 – September 22, 2016 andcroppingNiger central R iveractivities Nigeria. inhave Mali, not haveMoisture appeared Niger, not deficitstoappearedand be greatlyNigeria have affected.to .be beenVegetation greatly Widelypersistent persistentaffected Indices for . heavy and above- Satellite Estimated Vegetation Health index (VHI) theWidelyindicate longest persistent normalin centralaverage toheavy Senegalrainfallbetter and since-than aabove ndlate-normal theJuly-average inGambia, the vegetation region rainfall but continues r ainssinceconditions tohave latecause flooding issues Source: NOAA/CPC along the Niger River in Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. Vegetation IndicesFigure indicate 1 : Valid:NOAA/CPC September 16 – September 22, 2016 stillJulyacross been in the theoccurring region entire continues regionwith rel (toFigureative cause frequen 2flood). Trendsingcy. issues As indicate aalong result thatthe, Figure 2: Satellite-Estimated 90-Day Rainfall croppingNigerconditions R activitiesiver continue innormal Mali, have toto better-than-normalNiger, getnot greenerappeared and Nigeria and vegetationto lusher..be Vegetation greatly conditionsThis affectedis Indicestr acrossue in. the entire region Percentile (%), Valid: September 16 – September 22, WidelyindicateSenegal persistent normalwhere(Figure formallyhtoeavy 2).better Trends and poor-than indicateabove index-normal -thataverage values conditions vegetation associatedrainfall continue sinceconditions withto getlate the greener and lusher.Satellite Estimated Vegetation Health index (VHI) Julyacrossabnormal in the the region dryness entireThis continues is are trueregion showing in Senegal to(Figure cause rapidwhere floodformallyimprovement.2). Trendsing poor issues index indicate valuesalong associated thatthe with the Valid: September 16 – September 22, 2016 Nigerconditions River continuein abnormalMali, toNiger, dryness get greener andare showing Nigeria and rapid lusher.. Vegetationimprovement. This is Indices true in Senegal where formally poor index values associated with the indicateFor the normal upcomingFor to the outlookbetter upcoming- thanperiod outlook-normal, precipitationperiod, vegetation precipitation models conditionsmodels su ggestsuggest that acrossabnormalthat the the monsoon drynessentirethe monsoon arecirculationregion showing circulation(Figure will rapid continue will 2improvement. )continue. Trends to shiftto shiftindicate further further south thatsouth. Enhanced conditionsEnhanced continue precipitationprecipitation to get is is greener forecasted and for for manylusher. many of the Thisofwestern the is westerntrGulfue of inGuinea countries. SenegalForGulf the of whereGuineaupcoming formally countries. outlook poor period index, precipitationvalues associated models with suggest the abnormalthat the monsoondrynessSome are circulation signs showing of improving will rapid continue moisture improvement. deficitsto shift are further visible south in Uganda. Enhanced precipitation is forecasted for many of the western ForGulfSome the of upcomingsigns Guinea ofModerate improvingcountries. outlook to heavy moistureperiod rains, precipitation weredeficits spread are throughout visible models in most Ugandasuggest of the. climatologically that the monsoonfavored circulation areas during will the continue past week. to The shift largest further totals, south greater. than 100mm, were primarily clustered in western Ethiopia and neighboring portions of Enhanced Moderate pr toecipitation
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