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Power to Decouple. Hybrid Regimes in the International System: a Multimethod Analysis

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Power to Decouple. Hybrid Regimes in the International System: a Multimethod Analysis POWER TO DECOUPLE. HYBRID REGIMES IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM: A MULTIMETHOD ANALYSIS PROEFSCHRIFT VOORGELEGD TOT HET BEHALEN VAN DE GRAAD VAN DOCTOR IN ONTWIKKELINGSSTUDIES AAN DE UNIVERSITEIT ANTWERPEN EN DE GRAAD VAN DOCTOR IN SOCIOLOGIE AAN DE UNIVERSITEIT GENT SUBMITTED IN FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR IN DEVELOPMENT STUDIES AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ANTWERP AND DOCTOR IN SOCIOLOGY AT THE UNIVERSITY OF GHENT MATHIAS DE ROECK SUPERVISOR: PROF. DR. NADIA MOLENAERS PROF. DR. RONAN VAN ROSSEM EXAMINATION COMMITTEE : PROF. DR. MARIJKE VERPOORTEN PROF. DR. BERT INGELAERE PROF. DR. STEPHEN BROWN PROF. DR. MATTHIJS BOGAARDS DR. STIJN DAENEKINDT Mathias De Roeck Doctoral dissertation ISBN: [arranged by Katleen van Pellicom] Depot number: [arranged by Katleen van Pellicom] To my family, friends, and all people who supported me when writing this PhD thesis POWER TO DECOUPLE. HYBRID REGIMES IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM: A MULTIMETHOD ANALYSIS Preface Political regimes, i.e. systems of rule ranging from closed autocracy to liberal democracy, are almost perpetually in flux. Political regime change can go fast or slow, proceed in expected or unexpected ways, and can engender outcomes foreseen or unforeseen by a large part of the population and their leaders. Whatever the case, one thing is sure: in most societies, the nature of rule is almost permanently contested, below or above the surface and within and beyond state borders. This PhD thesis focuses on the rise and stability of hybrid regimes, i.e. political regimes mixing democratic institutions with authoritarian practices which subvert the quality of democratic institutions to the extent that they are not democratic anymore. I advance a comparative political economy argument to explain how come hybrid regimes became so numerous after the Cold War, and to clarify why so many hybrid regimes did not transition to liberal democracy but rather developed stable political regime types. What I seek to show is that hybrid regimes are fundamentally grounded in the coercive logic of the international states system as well as the capacity of the state to deal with this logic. Both the international environment and state capacity provide powers to decouple from the liberal democratic script. I use a multimethod study, combining large-N statistical analysis with small-N comparative-historical analysis, not only to illustrate this argument, but also to develop significant parts of it, highlighting the key role of state capacity when it comes to stabilizing hybrid regimes. To be sure, I did not expect this final argument of the rise and stability of hybrid regimes when I started writing this PhD thesis. Although I was pleased to conclude that the opportunities and constraints offered by the structure of international relations provided a major part of the explanation, I however initially believed that international relations provided the only answer to the rise and stability of hybrid regimes, and that many other factors, especially factors emphasizing agency, did not play much of a role. In that sense, I was wrong. The case studies in this PhD thesis indicate that agency does matter, and that when it comes to explaining hybrid regimes, it is especially the agency of the state and its leaders who use the state as a resource to pursue political ends that makes an important difference. In particular, the case studies highlight the strategic character of hybrid regimes. Hybrid regimes serve as a means to respond to complex pressures from abroad, taking into account specific state (elite) interests, including access to vital resources and political survival. This type of strategic action requires significant state capacity, which however varies over time and place. The argument contributes to the growing awareness that hybrid regimes should predominantly be seen as the outcome of strategic power relations between variously situated groups and nations with the state taking up a preponderant position. vii PREFACE The idea for this PhD thesis came after a series of travels to the Middle East during my years as a university student. These travels not only stimulated me to think about democracy, and especially authoritarianism, but also encouraged me to consider the role of dictators, repressive power structures, as well as geopolitics in strengthening authoritarian rule. The idea was further developed during a series of lectures in Comparative-Historical Analysis at the University of Ghent, which further acquainted me with the important work of Charles Tilly, Theda Skocpol, Barrington Moore, and Michael Mann, among others, and inspired me to develop an interest in “Big Structures, Large Processes, and Huge Comparisons” or macro- sociological phenomena more generally. Indirectly, the PhD thesis also stems from Roel Van Landuyt’s invitation for a two-month travel to India in the summer of 2007. As a teenager, what I witnessed in terms of poverty in India was so shocking and such an eye-opener that I only became more devoted to the study of sociology and development. This PhD thesis would not have come into existence without the generous support from the Institute of Development Policy (IOB) at the University of Antwerp. First and foremost, I would like to thank my PhD supervisors Nadia Molenaers and Ronan Van Rossem for their continued guidance and support throughout this long research project. I am also greatly indebted to Filip Reyntjens, who in 2014 encouraged me to proceed with this type of research, and Marijke Verpoorten, for her help, support, and interest at important moments during the PhD trajectory. Also special thanks to the PhD jury for reading this PhD thesis so carefully and for all the interesting comments, suggestions, and constructive feedback. This work would also never have come about without the support of my great colleagues at IOB: Catherine Windey, Filip De Maesschalck, Hanne Van Cappellen, Sahawal Alidou, Lisa Popelier, Bert Jacobs, Cassandra Vet, Gert Van Hecken, Mollie Gleiberman, Tobias Gandrup, Loresel Abainza, Dimitri Jacobs, Sarah Vancluysen, Ivan Ashaba, Vicky Verlinden, Réginas Ndayiragije, Joelle Dhondt, Janus Verelst, Antea Paviotti, Michael Wiebusch, Katleen Van Pellicom, Hans De Backer, Mitte Scheldeman, Nik Stoop, Klara Claessens, Greet Annaert, An Vermeersch, Boris Verbrugge, Nathalie Holvoet, Frédéric Huybrechts, Sara Dewachter, Miet Kuppens and of course many other people. I thank Sara Geenen for inviting me to present parts of my work at ECA–CREAC Expertise for Central Africa. I am also very grateful to Pone De Weerdt for hosting me at her house in Kigali for about three months. Finally, I must also thank Johan Debar, Deputy Head of Mission and Head of Cooperation at the Embassy of the Kingdom of Belgium, for his time and support in Rwanda, as well as all other interviewees for making time for me and providing me with many new insights about donor dynamics in Rwanda. Last but not least, I really enjoyed collaborating with my best cycling-buddy Job Van Nieuwenhove on a documentary about the 2018 Tour of Rwanda, broadcasted on Belgian television in February 2019. viii POWER TO DECOUPLE. HYBRID REGIMES IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM: A MULTIMETHOD ANALYSIS I would like to dedicate this PhD thesis to my wife Elisabeth Wallays and my brothers Frederik, Yannick and Joris De Roeck. Elisabeth not only for being such a really magnificent girlfriend throughout the years, and for sharing so many nice and adorable moments with me, but also for being so critical about, yet engaged with my work. Joris, Frederik, and Yannick for simply being the best brothers in the world. We get along very well, never find a date to go cycling together, make a lot of fun, and will continue to do so in the future, I’m sure. A special word of thanks for Frederik, who has read several chapters of my PhD and gave valuable feedback. Needless to say, this PhD also goes to my (almost) family-in-law Goedele, Johan, Edouard & Charlotte, Oma & Opa and Meter & Peter, for making me feel so welcome in the family and for being amongst the nicest and warmest people I have ever met in my life. Brussels, September 2019 ix POWER TO DECOUPLE. HYBRID REGIMES IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM: A MULTIMETHOD ANALYSIS Table of Contents Preface ........................................................................................................................................................ vii List of Figures .......................................................................................................................................... xvii List of Tables ........................................................................................................................................... xviii Acronyms .................................................................................................................................................. xix Abstract ...................................................................................................................................................... 21 PART 1. Introduction, Theory, and Methodology ................................................................................. 23 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 25 1.1. What Are Hybrid Regimes? ........................................................................................................ 26 1.2. Hybrid Regimes as a Transitional Regime Category?
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