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The Methow River Below Boesel Fault

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The Methow River Below Boesel Fault Use of a Precipitation-Runoff Model to Simulate Natural Streamflow Conditions in the Methow River Basin, Washington By D. Matthew Ely and John C. Risley U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY Water-Resources Investigations Report 01-4198 Prepared in cooperation with OKANOGAN COUNTY Tacoma, Washington 2001 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR GALE A. NORTON, Secretary U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY Charles G. Groat, Director CONTRIBUTING U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY STAFF Geographic Information System Support Computer Applications Support R. Viger, Physical Scientist T.T. Le, Computer Specialist T.D. Olsen, Geographer D.M. Ely, Hydrologist Editorial, Graphics, and Text Preparation Team L.S. Rogers, Technical Editor C.J. Dean, Illustrator S.L. Wahlstrom, Editor Any use of trade, product, or firm names in this publication is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. For additional information write to: Copies of this report can be purchased from: District ChiefChief U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Geological Survey Information Services 1201 Pacific Avenue – Suite 600 Building 810 Tacoma, Washington 98402 Box 25286, Federal Center http://wa.water.usgs.gov Denver, CO 80225-0286 CONTENTS Abstract ................................................................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................... 1 Purpose and Scope ...................................................................................................................................... 3 Description of Study Area........................................................................................................................... 4 Acknowledgments....................................................................................................................................... 5 Precipitation-Runoff Model ................................................................................................................................. 5 Description of Simulation Model................................................................................................................ 5 Time-Series Data......................................................................................................................................... 8 Precipitation ....................................................................................................................................... 8 Air Temperature................................................................................................................................. 10 Discharge ........................................................................................................................................... 10 Delineation of Basin Physical Characteristics ............................................................................................ 10 Parameterization of Basin Physical Characteristics.................................................................................... 16 Calibration of Simulation Model ................................................................................................................ 16 Long-Term Model Simulation .................................................................................................................... 27 Analysis of Errors in the Simulation........................................................................................................... 27 Data Error.................................................................................................................................................... 27 Model Error................................................................................................................................................. 28 Parameter Error ........................................................................................................................................... 28 Planned Work and Future Studies........................................................................................................................ 33 Summary and Conclusions................................................................................................................................... 33 References Cited .................................................................................................................................................. 35 Contents III FIGURES Figure 1. Map showing location of the Methow River Basin, Washington...................................................... 2 Figure 2. Schematic diagram of the Precipitation-Runoff-Modeling System................................................... 6 Figure 3. Map showing location of data-collection network in the Methow River Basin, Washington........... 9 Figure 4. Map showing drainage network defined for the Methow River Basin, Washington, with a minimum flow accumulation area of 3.5 square miles using GIS Weasel ............................. 12 Figure 5. Map showing generalized slope of the Methow River Basin, Washington, delineated using GIS Weasel ............................................................................................................. 13 Figure 6. Map showing generalized aspect of the Methow River Basin, Washington, delineated using GIS Weasel ............................................................................................................. 14 Figure 7. Map showing location of Modeling Response Units in the Methow River Basin, Washington, delineated using GIS Weasel ............................................................................................................. 15 Figure 8. Map showing simplified soil grid of the Methow River Basin, Washington, generated from the State Soil Geographic Database and the GIS Weasel......................................... 17 Figure 9. Map showing land use and vegetation in the Methow River Basin, Washington, delineated using the GIS Weasel ....................................................................................................... 18 Figure 10. Graphs showing simulated and measured daily mean streamflow for selected streamflow-gaging stations, Methow River Basin, Washington, water years 1992-99....... 20 Figure 11. Map showing location of major subbasins in the Methow River Basin, Washington, delineated using GIS Weasel ............................................................................................................. 22 Figure 12. Graphs showing simulated and measured mean monthly streamflow for selected streamflow-gaging stations, Methow River Basin, Washington, water years 1992-99........................................................................................................................... 24 Figure 13. Graph showing simulated and measured mean daily streamflow for selected streamflow-gaging stations, Methow River Basin, Washington, calendar years 1992 and 1995............................................................................................................ 26 Contents IV TABLES Table 1. Climate stations used in model simulations....................................................................................... 10 Table 2. Description of streamflow-gaging stations, Methow River Basin, Washington ............................... 11 Table 3. Simulated minimum, maximum, and mean monthly streamflows and standard deviations for the Methow River Basin, Washington, water years 1959–99...................................................... 29 Table 4. Simulated and measured mean annual streamflows, simulated streamflow as a percentage of measured, and bias for water years 1992–99 .............................................................. 31 Contents V CONVERSION FACTORS AND VERTICAL DATUM CONVERSION FACTORS Multiply By To obtain acre 4,047 square meter 0.4047 hectare 0.4047 square hectometer 0.004047 square kilometer acre-foot (acre-ft) 1,233 cubic meter 0.001233 cubic hectometer cubic foot (ft3) 28.32 cubic decimeter 0.02832 cubic meter cubic foot per second (ft3/s) 0.02832 cubic meter per second foot (ft) 0.3048 meter inch (in.) 2.54 centimeter 25.4 millimeter inch per year 25.4 millimeter per year mile (mi) 1.609k kilometer square miles 12.590 square kilometers Temperature in degrees Fahrenheit (°F) can be converted to degrees Celsius (°C) as follows: °C = 5/9 × (°F - 32). VERTICAL DATUM Sea level: In this report, “sea level” refers to the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 (NGVD of 1929)—a geodetic datum derived from a general adjustment of the first-order level nets of both the United States and Canada, formerly called Sea Level Datum of 1929. Altitude, as used in this report, refers to distance above or below sea level. Conversion Factors VI Use of a Precipitation-Runoff Model to Simulate Natural Streamflow Conditions in the Methow River Basin, Washington By D. Matthew Ely and John C. Risley ABSTRACT runoff for the 8-year calibration period at seven gaging stations ranged from -33.7 to +30.5 percent with 70 Management of the water resources of the percent of the simulated values within 16 percent. Methow River Basin is changing in response to the Simulation of water years 1959-99 demonstrated great listing of three species of fish under the Endangered variability in monthly streamflow statistics. The Species Act and the Washington State-legislated watershed-planning
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