2019 Impact Monitoring of the Investments in Rural Electrification in West Nile Sub-Region, Uganda

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2019 Impact Monitoring of the Investments in Rural Electrification in West Nile Sub-Region, Uganda The Impact of Rural Electrification in West Nile 1 2 The Impact of Rural Electrification in West Nile The Impact of Rural Electrification in West Nile 3 THE IMPACT OF RURAL ELECTRIFICATION Results of the 2013 - 2019 Impact Monitoring of the Investments in Rural Electrification in West Nile Sub-Region, Uganda Published by / Copyright© 2019 KfW Bankengruppe, Palmengartenstraße 5-9, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, www.kfw.de On behalf of Republic of Uganda, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development (MEMD) Authors Mirco Gaul (corresponding author), Miriam Schröder: SiNERGi Renewable Energy GmbH www.sinergi.de; [email protected] Christian Berg, Matthias Schmidt, Ulrich Alff, Victoria Luh: comit GmbH www.comit-berlin.net, [email protected] This work is a product of comit GmbH and SiNERGi Renewable Energy GmbH. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work are entirely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of KfW Development Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the government it represents. KfW Development Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of KfW Development Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such bounda- ries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because KfW Development Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Report citation: Gaul, M., Berg, C., Schmidt, M., Alff, U., Luh, V., and Schröder, M. (2019). The Impact of Rural Electrification – Results of the 2013-2019 Impact Monitoring of the Investments in Rural Electrification in West Nile Sub-Region, Uganda. KfW Development Bank, Frankfurt am Main. 4 The Impact of Rural Electrification in West Nile Acknowledgement An impact monitoring system of such a scale and continuity can only be carried forward with the support of numerous people. Over 2,000 households and businesses as well as 208 social institutions were repeatedly avail- able to participate in interviews or workshops to share their knowledge of the situation on the ground in West Nile. District and local administrations kindly supported with information and logistical advice, in- cluding the districts’ Chief Administrative Officers, the District Planning Officers, Education Of- ficers, Health Officers, Energy Focal Points, District Commercial Officers, LC1&3, and trading center committee members in Arua, Koboko, Maracha, Nebbi, Pakwach, Yumbe, and Zombo. Representatives of national line ministries and institutions contributed to the data collection on West Nile, namely Daniel Odongo and Peter Wakabi (UNEB); Paul Stephen Ojambo, Mwesigye Godson (URA); and Andrew Mukulu, Bernard Muhwezi (UBOS). And we would not have been successful without the strong and sustained support of all the stakeholders in the West Nile Electrification Program: Julius Wamala, Evarest Ssemujju (MEMD), Georg Grüner, Kathrin Kästle, Stefanie Rieger, Jan Martin Witte (KfW), Ludovic Durel (EU), Dido Lumanyika, Fabian Ahaisibwe, Norbu Tshering, John Kinungi, Alfred Ambayo (WENRECo), and Till Serafimov, Valentin Hollain (GIZ). We were lucky to be able to employ from 2013 until 2019 the same 5 survey coordinators, Shidah Zubeda, Sympho Masendi (†), Andrew Onwang, Ayiman Rasul, and Aniku Ahmed, who managed a total of 50 enumerators and provided valuable translation services and logis- tical support. The international team consisted of Ulrich Alff, Victoria Luh and Matthias Schmidt (comit GmbH), and Miriam Schröder, Annika Tillmans, and Mirella Brenke (SiNERGi GmbH). The conceptual framework and methodology were developed in 2011 by Christian Berg, Mirco Gaul, Benjamin Korff, Kathrin Raabe, Johannes Strittmatter, Katharine Tröger, and Valeriya Tyumeneva. Berlin, 1st of November 2019 Mirco Gaul (team leader SiNERGi GmbH) and Christian Berg (team leader comit GmbH) The Impact of Rural Electrification in West Nile 5 Content Executive summary ............................................................................................................. 7 Introduction ........................................................................................................................11 Part I Drivers and Barriers of Electricity Access in West Nile ........................................19 1. The electricity access situation in West Nile ...........................................................20 2. Reliability and efficiency of power supply ...............................................................28 3. Viability of power supply .........................................................................................33 4. Affordability of grid access......................................................................................38 5. Safe and efficient use of electricity .........................................................................41 Part II Impacts of Electricity Access in West Nile ............................................................43 6. Impacts on household welfare ................................................................................44 7. Economic impacts of grid access ...........................................................................49 8. Health impacts of grid access .................................................................................53 9. Educational impacts of grid access ........................................................................57 10. Environmental impacts of grid access ....................................................................61 Conclusions and Recommendations ................................................................................65 Annex I - Approach and Implementation ..........................................................................73 A1-1. Conceptual Design .............................................................................................74 A1-2. Methodical design ...............................................................................................79 A1-3. Implementation ...................................................................................................86 Annex II - Socio-Economic Change in West Nile .............................................................93 A2-1. Background on West Nile ...................................................................................94 A2-2. Growth trends of trading centers ....................................................................... 106 Annex III - Indicator sheets .............................................................................................. 109 A3-1. Program Output ................................................................................................ 111 A3-2. Use of Output ................................................................................................... 114 A3-3. Outcome Level ................................................................................................. 132 A3-4. Impact Level ..................................................................................................... 161 Annex IV - References ...................................................................................................... 183 A4-1. The SE4All tier access system ............................................................................. 184 A4-2. Glossary ............................................................................................................... 186 A4-3. Literature .............................................................................................................. 189 6 The Impact of Rural Electrification in West Nile Abbreviations CFL Compact fluorescent lamp DCO District Commercial Officer DPO District Planning Officer E-AIM Electricity Access Impact Maximization GHG Green House Gas GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit HC Health Center HFO Heavy Fuel Oil ICT Information and Communication Technology IEA International Energy Agency IEC International Electrotechnical Commission IPCC International Panel on Climate Change ISO International Organization for Standardization KfW Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau LED Light-emitting diode LPG Liquified Petroleum Gas M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MCB Miniature (or Micro) Circuit Breaker MEMD Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development MHI Manitoba Hydro International OBA Output Based Aid REA Rural Electrification Agency SAIDI System Average Interruption Duration Index SAIFI System Average Interruption Frequency Index SME Small and Medium Enterprises SWOT Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats TC Trading Center TV Television UBOS Uganda Bureau of Statistics UEDCL Uganda Electricity Distribution Co. Ltd. UNEB National Examinations Board URA Uganda Revenue Authority WENRECo West Nile Rural Electrification Company Units A Ampere km Kilometer kV kilo Volt kWh kilo Watt hour MWh Mega Watt hour Currencies and exchange rates (as of 30/06/2019) EUR Euro 1 EUR = USD 1.14 = UGX 4,200 UGX Ugandan Shillings 1,000 UGX = EUR 0.24 = USD 0.27 USD US Dollar 1 USD = EUR 0.88 = UGX 3,693 The Impact of Rural Electrification in West Nile 7 Executive summary This report aims to contribute to a better understanding of the challenges and dynamics of the implementation as well as of the strategic
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