2008/10/30 GIEWS/WFP Special Report on Mozam… Originated by: Economic and Social Department Title: FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT MISSION TO MOZAMBIQUE - MAY 1996... confidential - for official use only SPECIAL REPORT: FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT MISSION TO MOZAMBIQUE, MAY 1996 OVERVIEW FOOD PRODUCTION IN 1995/96 FOOD SUPPLY/DEMAND SITUATION SITUATION BY PROVINCE EMERGENCY FOOD AID Food Delivery/Distribution & Monitoring OVERVIEW An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Mozambique from 15 to 30 April 1996 to estimate the 1995/96 output of foodcrops in the country and project the 1996/97 food import and food aid requirements. Mission members traveled extensively and visited all the 10 provinces in the country. This year the Mission was joined by observers from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC). The Mission received full cooperation from relevant Government departments as well as from local donor representatives and Non-Governmental Organizations based in the country. The Mission estimates that the total area planted to cereals and other foodcrops during the 1995/96 production year reached some 3.4 million hectares, 2.7 percent larger than in the previous year. Plantings in some areas were limited by a scarcity of seeds, caused by last year's drought, and by the need for successive re-plantings, due to an irregular pattern of rains. The 1995/96 main season in most parts of the country was characterized by above average levels of precipitation, particularly during the second half of January and the beginning of February. Excessive rains during that period caused floods that washed away or submerged some 170 000 hectares of foodcrops, including 105 000 hectares of maize along the rivers or in other lowlands. Therefore, the total area to be harvested this year is expected to be 2.4 percent lower than in 1994/95. The most affected provinces are Zambezia, Sofala, Gaza, and Maputo. Total 1995/96 production of cereals is provisionally estimated at 1.375 million tons, 22 percent above last year, and about 75 percent higher than the 1993/94 harvest, when the country was hit by a severe drought. The increase is a result of much higher average yields that will more than compensate for the reduction in the area harvested. Production of cassava, the other major staple, has also increased substantially (13 percent). http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/w154…The production of beans is expected to be only moderately higher (4 percent) than last year. 1/20 2008/10/30 GIEWS/WFP Special Report on Mozam… The production of beans is expected to be only moderately higher (4 percent) than last year. The overall national food supply situation in the 1996/97 marketing year (April/March) is expected to improve considerably, particularly in the North and the Centre. Those provinces are expected to be roughly self- sufficient in basic foodstuffs and will even generate higher marketable surpluses of maize than during the previous marketing year. The total cereal import requirement in 1996/97 (May/April) is estimated at 300 000 tons, some 43 percent below the imports (commercial and food aid) registered during the 1995/96 marketing year. This estimate includes an import requirement of about 77 000 tons of maize. This estimate is based on the assumption that all the surplus maize (probably more than 300 000 tons) from the North and Centre could be mobilized for the deficit areas of the South. However, as it has been the experience in the past, it is unlikely that those transfers will materialize, given the present state of transport and commercial networks. In this case, the total maize import requirement could end up being higher than currently estimated. The Mission estimates that some 140 000 tons of cereals (mostly wheat and rice) could be imported commercially. Some 160 000 tons would be needed as food aid to stabilize the market and to provide direct assistance to farmers that experienced losses as a result of the floods as well as farmers, including recently re- settled population, that have experienced reductions in their crops due to adverse weather conditions. The Mission estimates that an average of 154 000 people will need approximately 24 948 tons of maize and 2 217 tons of pulses as emergency food aid assistance during the 1996/97 marketing year. Most of the emergency cereal food aid requirements for direct distribution and food for work projects could be met with local purchases in surplus areas, mainly in the provinces of Cabo Delgado, Nampula, Zambezia, Manica, Niassa and Tete. Donors are urged to make all possible efforts to purchase these surpluses early in the marketing year. There is also a need to monitor carefully local prices of cereals, so as to guide the right timing and location of interventions. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 1995/96 Rainfall was abundant and relatively well distributed until the end of March in the northern and central provinces of Niassa, Cabo Delgado, Nampula, Zambezia, Tete, Manica and Sofala, which normally account for more than 80 percent of the cereals and pulse crops. This favoured early planted and shorter cycle cereal and beans and their yields are expected to be similar or better than last year. However, there is concern regarding the outcome of late planted and longer cycle cereals and second season crops as a result of the abrupt interruption of the rains. In the southern provinces of Inhambane, Gaza and Maputo, the 1995/96 first season was delayed, with an irregular distribution of rains and with a dry spell and extremely high temperatures during the first half of January. This irregular pattern forced to successive re-plantings and seriously affected first season cereals in most of those areas that were not covered by the floods. Total maize production in 1995/96 is estimated at 947 200 tons, some 200 000 tons (29 percent) above last year's output. The increase in production reflects a 34 percent increase in yields, partly offset by a 10 percent http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/w154… 2/20 2008/10/30 GIEWS/WFP Special Report on Mozam… year's output. The increase in production reflects a 34 percent increase in yields, partly offset by a 10 percent reduction in the area harvested. A total of 105 000 hectares of maize are estimated to have been lost because of the floods. Two-thirds of the increase in maize production will be accounted for by the large increases in yields registered in the provinces of Tete and Manica, where maize output is expected to be more than double in relation to the drought affected levels of the previous year. Other provinces that will register large increases in maize production are Inhambane (+34 percent), Niassa (+22 percent), Nampula (+18 percent) and Gaza (+16 percent). In the case of Gaza, the increase would have been much larger were it not for the large area lost through floods. Other provinces, notably Sofala and Zambezia, will also register fairly large increases in average maize yields but total production increases will be limited due to the heavy losses caused by the floods. In the province of Maputo maize output is forecast to fall by 25 percent, mostly as a result of the crop damage by floods. Aggregate 1995/96 production of sorghum and millet is forecast at 288 000 tons, some 4 percent higher than the previous year. The growth mostly reflects a marginal increase in average yields. The absence of rains since March in Cabo Delgado and Niassa will affect yields and the aggregate production of sorghum and millet is expected to fall by around 30 percent in those two provinces. By contrast, in the central and southern provinces of Tete, Manica, Sofala and Inhambane, sorghum and millet yields are expected to increase by more than 30 percent in relation to the drought affected levels of the previous year. Paddy production in 1995/96 is forecast at 139 400 tons, 23 percent higher than in 1994/95. The growth in production reflects an increase of 5 percent in the area to be harvested and 18 percent increase in average yields. The crop was favoured by better weather conditions than those prevailing in the previous year when rainfall was insufficient and irregular in the main rice producing areas. More than half of the increase in the production of paddy will be registered in the province of Zambezia, where paddy output is expected to increase by almost 30 percent relative to the previous year. Large increases are also expected in Nampula and Sofala. The total production of beans is expected to reach some 140 000 tons, only 4 percent higher than the relatively low level of the previous year. Increases in yields will be partially offset by a reduction of about 3 percent in the areas to be harvested as a consequence of the floods. By contrast, the production of groundnuts is expected to increase by almost 15 percent to a total of 117 200 tons. The increase mostly reflects better yields, due to more favourable weather conditions in most growing areas. About two-thirds of the increase in groundnut production will be registered in the province of Inhambane. By contrast, groundnut production in Cabo Delgado is expected to fall by more than 38 percent, mostly because of lower yields caused by the absence of rains since March. The total output of cassava is estimated at some 4.733 million tons (fresh roots), some 13 percent higher than in 1994/95. The increase mostly reflects higher yields, thanks to the more favourable weather conditions in all production areas.