CIVIL - MILITARY FUSION CEN TRE Mediterranean Review Comprehensive Information on Complex Crises 13 September 2011 INSIDE THIS ISSUE This document provides an overview of developments in Libya and elsewhere in the Mediterranean Basin from 07 — 12 September 2011, with hyperlinks to source material highlighted and underlined in Diplomacy Security the text. For more information on the topics below or other issues pertaining to the region, please contact Development the members of the Med Basin Team, or visit our website at www.cimicweb.org. ABOUT THE CFC Diplomacy Kendall Allen ► [email protected] The Civil-Military Fusion Centre (CFC) is an information In Libya, the whereabouts of Col. Moammar Gaddafi remain unknown, although rumours and and knowledge management speculations continue to grow as more countries in the region take official stances on the organisation focused on embattled leader’s possible escape plans. The National Transitional Council (NTC) has been improving civil-military working to consolidate its power as it transitions to Tripoli and Chairman Mustafa Abdel Jalil interaction, facilitating arrives there for the first time. In Egypt and Tunisia, the rising challenges of reforming information sharing and electoral processes have received attention in the media. enhancing situational awareness through the CimicWeb portal n 09 September, Interpol issued arrest borders. On 07 September, Burkina Faso took and our weekly and monthly warrants for Moammar Gaddafi, his a clear stance, announcing it would not offer publications. son Saif al-Islam, and former asylum to Gaddafi, based on the country‟s O intelligence chief Abdullah al-Senussi. The recent history of poor relations with Libya, CFC products are based upon move comes after an International Criminal and Burkina Faso‟s “obligations to the and link to open-source Court (ICC) prosecutor appealed to the international community”, says Alain Traore, information from a wide variety organisation last week. In a released spokesman for the government. Guinea Bissau of organisations, research statement, the Secretary General of Interpol made the opposite announcement on 11 centres and media sources. Ronald Noble said “Muammar Gaddafi is a September, publicising its decision to However, the CFC does not fugitive whose country of nationality and the welcome Gaddafi into the country if he endorse and cannot necessarily ICC want arrested and held accountable for chooses to seek refuge there. Reuters released guarantee the accuracy or the serious criminal charges that have been a statement from Prime Minister Carlos objectivity of these sources. brought against him.” Gomes Junior which details the country‟s position: “With all the investment that Gaddafi CFC publications are Rumours continue to abound regarding the has put into Guinea Bissau he deserves the independently produced by Knowledge Managers and do location of Moammar Gaddafi. Two items this respect and good treatment by the authorities not reflect NATO policies or week suggest the former leader may still be in and people of Guinea Bissau.” The diplomatic positions of any other Libya. In a phone call to a television channel position of Niger has been more ambiguous on organisation. in Syria, Gaddafi denied fleeing Libya and the situation. The Daily Telegraph reports that indicated his belief that the Libyan rebels the government of Niger would not could still be defeated; however, the New York immediately refuse asylum for Moammar Times states the validity and authenticity of Gaddafi if he sought to enter the country. the alleged message from Gaddafi could not Niger‟s Foreign Minister Mohamed Bazoum be confirmed. The Libyan rebels believe that somewhat clarified the position and admitted Gaddafi still may be hiding within Libya‟s that “of course he can cross into Niger and we borders, the Daily Telegraph reports. will decide what to do if that is the case. We According to information gathered from cannot stop him from coming.” On 12 CONTACT THE CFC witnesses, the three most likely places to be September, BBC reported that Niger had For further information, contact: harbouring Gaddafi are his hometown of Sirte, officially received Saadi, Gaddafi‟s son, and Bani Walid, and Sabha. offered him refuge, based on humanitarian Med Basin Team Manager grounds. Although Brazil is not a likely place Dr. Matthew Hall Several countries issued official positions this for Gaddafi to flee, the South American [email protected] week on whether or not they would accept or country still took steps to condemn the former negotiate with Moammar Gaddafi if he chose leader and his supporters. On 07 September, The Mediterranean Team [email protected] to seek asylum and refuge within their the country issued a freeze on a transfer of funds that could have benefited Gaddafi and his cause. An face challenges in establishing a free and fair electoral system official statement released from the government said the after the political revolution of the spring. Egypt‟s Tahrir decision was made in order to “prevent forces with ties to the party, a Sufi-dominated group, has gained official status as a dictator from arming themselves,” reports the South African political party. Al-Masry Al-Youm reported on the Press Association (Sapa) and Deutsche Presse-Agentur (DPA). development, and acknowledged that the new Tahrir party was meant to serve as a counterbalance to Salafi politics. The Libyan rebels continue to According to Abul Azayem, leader request that each country deny of the Sufi Azmeyya order, “this Moammar Gaddafi refuge and “Muammar Gaddafi is a fugitive whose country Sufi party should act then as an asylum based on the grounds that umbrella for all Sufi orders.” The he is a wanted criminal in the eyes of nationality and the ICC want arrested and held Muslim Brotherhood also of Libya, Interpol, and the ICC. publicised its new political entity “"We're asking every country not accountable for the serious criminal charges that the “Freedom and Justice Party” to accept him. We want these have been brought against him.” this week. Essam el-Erian, deputy people for justice. He's looking for vice-president of the party, said a chance to leave,” says the NTC‟s Secretary General of Interpol Ronald Noble that, on behalf of his party, “there head of political affairs, Fathi Baja. will be good co-operation with all the international community.” But The NTC within Libya some of the younger members of This week, the NTC took steps to consolidate its power as the the Brotherhood are concerned that the group will try to apply new authority moves its headquarters from the eastern city of old solutions to the new political ideas of the post- Benghazi to the capital Tripoli. For the first time since the revolutionary era. liberation of the city from Gaddafi loyalists, NTC chairman Mustafa Abdel Jalil visited Tripoli on 10 September and was Expressing discontent with what is seen to some a failing welcomed by crowds cheering in support. The NTC could revolution, Egyptian activists called for protests throughout the complete its transition to Tripoli as early as the end of next country on 09 September. The protests, dubbed “Correcting week. The new home of the NTC in Tripoli will be the Rixos the Path”, were meant to serve as an exhibition of the hotel, which previously made news when foreign journalists discontent with the slow progress towards sustained reform, were held there by Gaddafi loyalists. The new headquarters, and as a means to galvanize the interim administration to pick complete with a neighboring conference centre, will be able to up the pace with implementing those reforms. However, an provide the necessary facility for the NTC to conduct business attack on the Israeli embassy in Cairo by protesters has only and possibly house group members. led to the resurgence of Egypt‟s state of emergency laws. The NTC‟s growth in legitimacy and authority since the fall of In Tunisia, the story of attempted political reform and public Tripoli has not gone unnoticed, even by those who were once unrest is similar to Egypt‟s. However, in Tunisia one of the loyal to the Gaddafi regime. The New York Times reports that biggest challenges facing efforts to reform the electoral many individuals who held positions in the former regime process is voter apathy due to confusion and ambiguity of the have swiftly and easily transitioned into new positions within process. With only an estimated 50% of eligible voters the NTC. However, the transition has not been so easy for registered, Jean-Baptiste Gallopin, a London analyst cited by some members of the foreign regime. Mousa Koussa, the Reuters, suggests that “the fact that so few people have former foreign minister under the Gaddafi regime, sought a registered to vote shows there is a general disillusionment position with the NTC and offered his professional experience among the population toward the transition process.” Tunisia, to the group. The NTC rejected his supplication, informing too, is struggling with unrest of the general public as protests Koussa he would face prosecution for war crimes should he erupted on 07 September over the recent implementation of a attempt to return to the country. law that bans police and law enforcement officers from joining unions. Moreover, the Interim Prime Minister Beji Caid Egypt and Tunisia – Electoral challenges amid public Essebsi authorised the transitional government to “prohibit all discontent demonstrations, all strikes and all meetings that could affect With elections pending for fall of this year, Egypt continues to the security of the country”. RECOMMEND REPORT TOPICS TO THE CFC: MEDITERRANEAN REGION IN TRANSITION In order to meet the growing demand for information regarding the dynamic, complex events in Libya specifically and North Afri- ca generally, the CFC has begun publishing special reports on the region in addition to our weekly newsletters.