International Journal of Mechanical Engineering and Technology (IJMET) Volume 9, Issue 7, July 2018, pp. 916–931, Article ID: IJMET_09_07_099 Available online at http://iaeme.com/Home/issue/IJMET?Volume=9&Issue=7 ISSN Print: 0976-6340 and ISSN Online: 0976-6359

© IAEME Publication Scopus Indexed

EMERGENCE OF AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY IN INDIAN CONTEXT - A CONCEPTUAL STUDY

Krishna Reddy Research Scholar, K L Business School, K L deemed to be University, KLEF Guntur, Andhra Pradesh,

P V Vijay Kumar Reddy Assistant Professor, K L Business School, K L deemed to be University, KLEF, Guntur, Andhra Pradesh, India

ABSTRACT Automobile Industry today is one of the Profitable Industry. India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Automobile industry had seen many ups and downs in India prior to liberalization. The liberalization of Indian economy enabled India to advance itself in many sectors. Automobile is one such sector wherein India has seen tremendous improvements. The Indian auto industry is one of the largest in the world. The industry accounts for 7.1 per cent of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Keywords: Automobile industry and Indian economy Cite this Article: Krishna Reddy and P V Vijay Kumar Reddy, Emergence of Automobile Industry in Indian Context - A Conceptual Study, International Journal of Mechanical Engineering and Technology, 9(7), 2018, pp. 916–931. http://iaeme.com/Home/issue/IJMET?Volume=9&Issue=7

1. INTRODUCTION Automobile Industry today is one of the Profitable Industry. India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Automobile industry had seen many ups and downs in India prior to liberalization. The liberalization of Indian economy enabled India to advance itself in many sectors. Automobile is one such sector wherein India has seen tremendous improvements. The Indian auto industry is one of the largest in the world. The industry accounts for 7.1 per cent of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The overall Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment has 14 per cent market share. The Indian Automobile market owing to a growing middle class and a young population. Moreover, the growing interest of the companies in exploring the rural markets further aided the growth of the sector (1) .[https://www.ibef.org] By 2026 the Indian will be among the top three of the world in engineering, manufacturing and export of vehicles and auto components and will encompass

http://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJMET 916 [email protected] Emergence of Automobile Industry in Indian Context - A Conceptual Study safe, efficient and environment friendly conditions for affordable mobility of people and transportation of goods in India Comparable with global standards, growing in value to over 12% of India’s GDP and generating an additional 65 million jobs (2) [Automotive Mission Plan 2016-26 ]

1.1. Passenger car sales Domestic/Export sales

Figure 1 Passenger Car Penetration

Source: SIAM,,May 2018

2. AUTOMOTIVE PROFILE Automobile industry, the business of producing and selling self-powered vehicles, including passenger cars, trucks, farm equipment, and other commercial vehicles. By allowing consumers to commute long distances for work, shopping, and entertainment, the auto industry has encouraged the development of an extensive road system, made possible the growth of suburbs and shopping centers around major cities, and played a key role in the growth of ancillary industries, such as the oil and travel businesses. The auto industry has become one of the largest purchasers of many key industrial products, such as steel. The large number of people the industry employs has made it a key determinant of economic growth. Automobile is self-propelled vehicle which is used for the transportation of passenger and good upon the ground. A vehicle is machine which is used for the transportation of passengers and goods. Car, bus truck, jeep, tractor, scooter, motor cycles are the example of automobiles.

2.1. Auto Mobile Overview The Automotive Industry is comprised primarily of the world’s largest passenger automobile and light truck manufacturers. Through broad dealership networks, most members of the industry sell vehicles in the global market, covering developed and emerging countries. Automotive manufacturers offer a variety of makes and models, though there tends to be limited brand integration at the marketing, advertising, and dealership levels. The bulk of these companies operate production facilities in multiple geographic regions. The price of gasoline (and diesel fuel) is an important factor influencing customer demand. Indeed, the rise and fall of gas prices since the 1970s has caused buyers to place varying degrees of emphasis on vehicle fuel efficiency, durability, engine power, and quality. Accordingly, market categories and product lineups evolve to meet customer preferences. Examples are crossovers, which combine the features of an SUV and the traditional car, and hybrids, utilizing the benefits of gasoline and alternative power (electric) sources. In order to stay profitable, manufacturers and dealers must properly gauge demand and carry the optimal mix of autos for each period in the business cycle. To assist customers with purchases, and support sales, many companies offer low-rate financing programs and attractive incentives, such as discounts and cash back. Warranties, covering defects and repairs, are another means to lure drivers into showrooms. The auto industry is both capital and labor-intensive. These

http://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJMET 917 [email protected] Krishna Reddy and P V Vijay Kumar Reddy companies have to manage numerous costs and expenses associated with facilities, materials, parts, equipment, product development, and employment. At times, the prices of key raw materials, such as steel, can surge to record levels, requiring a nimble hedging strategy. Research & development and marketing and advertising expenses will have a discernible impact on the cost budget, as well. Too, given the seasonal nature of demand and new product launches, effective working capital management is crucial in supporting sales and controlling costs and expenses. The Automotive Industry is an important segment of the global economy, and its performance often tracks that of the broader business cycle. Investors seeking above-average price appreciation need to accurately time that cycle when taking a stake in this industry. Some of the group’s stocks offer a modest dividend to support investor loyalty. According value line.com caution that many of these equities carry low marks for Stock Price Stability and Earnings Predictability (3). www.valueline.com/tocks/Industries/Industry_Analysis__Automotive) Dated September 11, 2015.

2.2. Car Segments Car segments as per SIAM (Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers) Common people like me always confuse between the car type and car segment. It has always been a difficult situation to identify a car type and to guess which segment it falls in. Following are the specific categories of all vehicles sold in India as outlined by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM). Using the SIAM classification ensures that no vehicle type will slip through the net. These classifications help consumers to compare and identify similar vehicles and makes car buying process as easy as possible. It also helps identify other similar vehicles for consumers to compare against, to help make the car-buying process much easier (4). The classification of segment is done on the basis of the length of the vehicle (Passenger car segment)

Table 1 Car Segments and Classifications Segment Classification & Length Car Models A1 Segment Mini – Up to 3400mm M800, Nano A2 Segment Compact – 3401mm~4000mm Alto, wagon r, Zen,i10,A-star,Swift,i20,palio,indica etc A3 Segment Midsize : 4001 to 4500mm City, Sx4, Dzire, Logan, Accent, Fiesta, Verna etc) A4 Segment Executive : 4501 to 4700mm Corolla, civic, C class, Optra, Octavia etc) A5 Segment Premium : 4701 to 5000mm Camry, E class, Accord, Sonata, Laura, Superb etc) A6 Segment Luxury : Above 5000mm Mercedes S class, 5 series etc B1 Segment Van : Omni, Versa, Magic etc Omni, Versa, Magic etc B2 Segment MUV/MPV Innova, Tavera, Sumo etc SUV SUV CRV, Vitara etc Segment

Source: Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM). 2018

2.3. Classification of Cars based on body shape

2.3.1. According SIAM Classification of Cars based on body Shape describe as below 1. Box (Van/Mpv) – It means Engine area, Passenger area & luggage area all in one box. There wont be separate compartment. For eg. Omni, Ace Magic, Versa 2. Two Box (Hatchback) – It means Engine are has a separate cabin while Passenger area and luggage area are together. For eg. M800, Alto, Santro, i10, A*, Swift etc.

http://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJMET 918 [email protected] Emergence of Automobile Industry in Indian Context - A Conceptual Study

3. Three Box (Sedan/Saloon/Notchback) – It means Engine area, Passenger area & luggage area all are having different cabin. For eg. SX4, City, Fiesta, Dzire, Ambassador, Indigo CS etc. 4. Estate/Station Wagon – Its nothing but sedan whose roof is extended till the rear to create more boot space. For eg. Indigo Marina, Octavia Combi, etc. 5. SUV (Sports Utility Vehicle) – These vehicles have large tyres, higher seating, higher ground clearance. The engine area is separate, but the passenger & luggage area are enclosed together. Most of these vehicles are equipped with either 4 wheel drive system or has the option for that. For eg. CRV, SAFARI, GRAND VITARA, PAJERO etc. 6. Semi Notchback – Its a sedan whose boot door can be opened like a hatchback (wagon r, swift), where the rear wind shield too opens along with the boot door. Unlike sedan whose rear wind sheild is always fixed. There are only few examples for SEMI NOTCHBACK – Skoda Octavia, Accent Viva.

2.4. Automobile Market Segmentation The automobile market is split into four main segments, viz., two-wheelers, passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles & three-wheelers

Figure 2 Automobile market Segmentation

3. WORLD AUTO MOBILE INDUSTRY The automobile as we know, it was not invented in a single day by a single inventor. The history of the automobile reflects an evolution that took place worldwide. It is estimated that over 100,000 patents created the modern automobile. However, we can point to the many firsts that occurred along the way. Several Italians recorded designs for wind driven vehicles. The first was Guido da Vigevano in 1335. Vaturio designed a similar vehicle, which was also never built. Later Leonardo da Vinci designed clockwork driven tricycle with tiller steering and a differential mechanism between the rear wheels. A Catholic priest named Father Ferdinand Verbiest has been said to have built a steam powered vehicle for the Chinese Emperor Chien Lung in about 1678. Since James Watt didn't invent the steam engine until 1705 it is guessed that this was possibly a model vehicle powered by a mechanism like Hero's steam engine, a spinning wheel with jets on the periphery. The first vehicle to move under its own power for which there is a record was designed by Nicholas Joseph Cugnot and constructed by M. Brezin in 1769. A second unit was built in 1770, which weighed 8000 pounds and had a top speed on 2 miles per hour 68 and on the Cobble Stone Streets of Paris this was probably as fast as anyone wanted to go it. The early steam powered vehicles were so heavy that they were only practical on a perfectly flat surface as strong as iron. A road thus made out of iron rails became the norm for the next hundred and twenty-five years. The vehicles got bigger and heavier and more powerful and as such they were eventually capable of pulling a train of many cars filled with freight and passengers. Many attempts were being made in England by the 1830's to develop a practical vehicle that didn't need rails. A series of

http://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJMET 919 [email protected] Krishna Reddy and P V Vijay Kumar Reddy accidents and propaganda from the established railroads caused a flurry of restrictive legislation to be passed and the development of the automobile by passed England. Several commercial vehicles were built but they were more like trains without tracks. The development of the internal combustion engine had to wait until a fuel was available to combust internally. Gunpowder was tried but didn't work out. Gunpowder carburetors are still hard to find. The first gas really did use gas. They used coal gas generated by heating coal in a pressure vessel or boiler. A Frenchman named Etienne Lenoir patented the first practical gas engine in Paris in 1860 and drove a car based on the design from Paris to Joinville in 1862. His one-half horsepower engine had a bore of 5 inches and a 24-inch stroke. It was big and heavy and turned 100 rpm. Lenoir had a separate mechanism to compress the gas before combustion. In 1862, Alphonse Bear de Rochas figured out how to compress the gas in the same cylinder in which it was to burn, which is the way we still do it. This process of bringing the gas into the cylinder, compressing it, combusting the compressed mixture, then exhausting it is known as the Otto cycle, or four-cycle engine. Lenoir claimed to have run the car on benzine and his drawings show an electric spark ignition. If so, then his vehicle was the first to run on petroleum based fuel, or petrol, or what we call gas, short for gasoline. Siegfried Marcus, of Mecklenburg, built a car in 1868 and showed one at the Vienna Exhibition of 1873. His later car was called the Strassenwagen had about ¾ horse power at 500 rpm. It ran on crude wooden wheels with iron rims and stopped by pressing wooden blocks against the iron rims, but it had a clutch, a differential and a magneto ignition. One of the four cars, which Marcus built, is in the Vienna Technical Museum and can still be driven under its own power. In 1876, Nokolaus Otto patented the Otto cycle engine, de Rochas had neglected to do so, and this later became the basis for Daimler and Benz breaking the Otto patent by claiming prior art from de Rochas. In 1885, Gottllieb Daimler's in Bad Cannstatt built the wooden motorcycle. Daimler's son Paul rode this motorcycle from Cannstatt to Unterturkheim and back on November 10, 1885. Daimler used a hot tube ignition system to get his engine speed up to 1000 rpm. On 29th January 1886, Karl Benz was granted a patent on it and on 3rd July 1886, he introduced the first automobile in the world to an astonished public. Also in August 1888, William Steinway, owner of Steinway & Sons piano factory, talked to Daimler about US manufacturing right and by September had a deal. By 1891 the Daimler Motor Company, owned by Steinway, was producing petrol engines for tramway cars, carriages, quadric cycles, fire engines and boats in a plant in Hartford, CT. Steam cars had been built in America since before the Civil War but the early one was like miniature locomotives. In 1871, Dr. J. W. Carhart, professor of physics at Wisconsin State University, and the J. I. Case Company built a working steam car. By 1890 Ransom E. Olds had built his second steam-powered car. One was sold to a buyer in India, but the ship it was on was lost at sea. Running by February, 1893 and ready for road trials by September, 1893 the car built by Charles and Frank Duryea, brothers, was the first gasoline powered car in America. The first run on public roads was made on September 21, 1893 in Springfield, MA. Henry Ford had an engine running by 1893 but it was 1896 before he built his first car. By the end of the year Ford had sold his first car, which he called a Quadra cycle, for $200 and used the money to build another one. With the financial backing of the Mayor of Detroit, William C. Maybury and other wealthy Detroiters, Ford formed the Detroit Automobile Company in 1899. A few prototype were built but no production cars were ever made by this company. It was dissolved in January 1901. Ford would not offer a car for sale until 1903. Eli Olds built first petrol-powered car. This car was running by 1896 but production of the Olds Motor Vehicle Company of Detroit did not begin until 1899. After an early failure with luxury vehicles they established the first really successful production with the classic Curved Dash Oldsmobile. It sold for $650. In 1901 600 were sold and the next years were 1902 - 2,500, 1903 - 4,000, and 1904 - 5,000. In August

http://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJMET 920 [email protected] Emergence of Automobile Industry in Indian Context - A Conceptual Study

1904 Ransom Olds left the company to form Reo for Ransom Eli Olds. E. Olds was the first mass producer of gasoline-powered automobiles in the United States, even though Duryea was the first auto manufacturer with their 13 cars. The Rolls Royce Silver Ghost of 1906 was a six cylinder car that stayed in production until 1925. It represented the best engineering and technology available at the time and these cars still run smoothly and silently today. This period marked the end of the beginning of the automobile.

4. GLOBAL AUTO INDUSTRY 2018: AT A CROSSROAD According Standards & Poors Ratings Direct, dated October 10th 2017 global automotive demand is likely to remain stable, largely in line our previous expectations. That is, we see China's outlook remaining stable to positive, the U.S. showing some signs of softening, and European markets (mostly) continuing on a moderate growth trend. Visibility remains low in markets such as Brazil, Russia, and India because of likely volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. We note that these markets account for less than 8% of the global vehicle sales, while China alone represents one-third. In the U.S., auto growth is clearly falling behind our earlier expectations in 2017, with a sales decline of 2%-3%. Following a modest year-to-date drop, we expect sales to weaken slightly year over year in the fourth quarter of 2017, despite the need for replacement vehicles following recent natural disasters in key markets such as Texas and Florida. In 2018 and 2019, think sales could weaken slightly from 2017 levels (relative to their prior expectations) but stay at a relative healthy total of 16.5 million-17 million units based on their expectation for steady U.S. GDP growth, housing starts, and gasoline prices. Other supportive factors include still-satisfactory data on vehicle affordability, an upturn in homeownership among young adults, and single-family building permits being at a 10-year high. If these trends are sustained in 2018 and 2019, it could support steady demand for autos in the U.S. In Asia- Pacific (APAC), the overall market trend is broadly in line with our expectations, however higher risk in China's market than at the beginning of 2017. The credit quality of Japan's automobile and auto components industries is likely to stay on a stable path for the next year or two, in our view. New-car sales in Japan have been expanding over the last 10 months, resulting in 8.1% growth through August 2017. Fueling this trend has been solid demand for small vehicles, which we believe results from strategic new-model launches from key manufacturers. Thanks to the prospect of a steady economy and low interest rates, expect the recent steadiness in Japan's new-car sales to continue over the next one to two years. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations' (ASEAN's) six major countries--Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippine, Vietnam, and Singapore--posted steady auto sales growth at 6% during 2017. Considering stabilized commodity prices and a steady regional economy, As per S&P Ratings Direct solid growth is likely to continue in ASEAN. Conversely, slowdown in China. New-car sales during the first eight months of 2017 were 17.5 million units. While that's a 4.3% growth pace over the same period last year, it's notably lower than the 13.7% increase achieved in full-year 2016 and 11.4% over the first eight months of last year. What potentially deserves more attention, though, is a faster decline in average selling prices during 2017, according to some original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and the likely negative impact on profitability. Although we expect sustained auto volume growth in China over the next two to three years at a pace close to or in line with GDP growth, ongoing competitive pressure due to industry overcapacity and increasingly sophisticated consumer tastes will likely continue. In addition, various regulations, for example the corporate average fuel consumption target, will likely force OEMs to increase capital spending.

http://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJMET 921 [email protected] Krishna Reddy and P V Vijay Kumar Reddy

Nevertheless, we do expect Chinese auto market leaders to keep registering robust growth in volume and profit. Japanese companies have generally been outperformers on the Chinese market due to new-model launches in SUVs and small cars, while South Korea's Hyundai is losing significant market share. Thus, each individual company's strategic efforts are also important analytical factors. (www.standardandpoors.com/ratingsdirect October 10 2017) Europe's auto market performance to date has been stronger than we previously expected, surpassing projection of sales growth in the 1%-2% range for 2017. Instead, light vehicles sales growth exceeded 4% in Europe in the first eight months, thanks to improved performance in key Western Europe markets, mainly Germany, France, Italy, and Russia. Overall sales are trending in excess of 20 million units for 2017, making 2017 the fourth consecutive year of growth. Europe's strong performance is linked to improving economic conditions in the area. Economic environment for car sales will remain favorable in Europe, where we estimate GDP growth at 1.9% in 2018 and 2019. We thus expect demand for cars to remain soundly in the 2%-3% range in the next two years (5). Sales growth is reported in all European markets except for the U.K., as anticipated. This is a result of the uncertainties surrounding Brexit and lower real salaries mainly linked to a weaker British pound. U.K. auto market's prospects tied to ongoing negotiations with the EU. Any form of trade restriction would be detrimental for cars produced in the U.K., which on average heavily depend on imported parts. In the worst case, such restrictions could over time lead to British production relocating to the Continent. Diesel car engines have become a key part of the engine mix in Western Europe, as they help meet stringent carbon dioxide emissions targets in the EU of 95 grams per kilometer by 2021 on average for the sector, while providing a better fuel economy. However, these engines emit high levels of harmful nitrogen oxide, and political and public pressure to lower excessive air pollution levels is increasing. In a sharp reversal of European auto sales trends up until recently, diesel-powered cars' share of new- vehicle sales continues to drop. In Western Europe, diesel's market share fell to 42.7% in August 2017 from 48.3% the year before according to LMC Automotive. In the main markets, the largest declines are reported in Spain, the U.K., and Germany. Continue to expect diesel's market share to decline gradually, being replaced by gasoline and electric vehicles (EV). We expect volumes and market share will continue dropping, and will make up less than 40% of the market by 2020 and about 30% by 2025, as bad publicity continues to weaken customer confidence.

4.1. Cars Production top 10 countries wise (6)

Table 2 Cars Production top 10 countries S.no Country No of Units (Production) 1 China 24,806,687 2 Japan 8,347,836 3 Germany 5,645,581 4 India 3,952,550 5 South Korea 3,735,399 6 USA 3,033,216 7 Spain 2,291,492 8 Brazil 2,269,468 9 Mexico 1,900,029 10 France 1,748,000

Source: www.oica.net/category/production-statistics/2017-statistics

http://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJMET 922 [email protected] Emergence of Automobile Industry in Indian Context - A Conceptual Study

4.2. Car sales world wide This statistic represents the number of cars sold worldwide from 1990 through 2017. Additionally, it presents a Forecast for 2018. Some 81.6 million automobiles are expected to be sold by the end 2018 number of cars sold (7) Worldwide from 1990 to 2018 (in million units)

Table 3 Car sales world wide Period No of cars sold in Million Units 1990 to 1999 39.2 2000 to 2014 54.89 2015 72.61 2016 77.25 2017 79.02 2018 81.57

Source: www.statista.com/statistics/200002/international-car-sales-since-1990

5. INDIAN AUTO MOBILE INDUSTRY HISTORY From the policy standpoint, the Indian automobile industry can be viewed in terms of the pre- 1991 (before liberalization) and post-1991 (after liberalization) phase. 1880's & early 1900's: About hundred years ago the first motorcar was imported and Import duty on vehicles was introduced. Indian Great Royal Road (Predecessor of the Grand Trunk Road) was conceived. First car brought in India by a princely ruler in 1898. Simpson & Co established in 1840. They were the first to build a steam car and a steam bus, to attempt motorcar manufacture, to build and operate petrol driven passenger service and to import American Chassis in India. Railways first came to India in 1850's. In 1865 Col. Rookes Crompton introduced public transport wagons strapped to and pulled by imported steam road rollers called streamers. The maximum speed of these buses was 33 kms/hr. From 1888 Motors Spirit attracted a substantial import duty. In 1919 at the end of the war, a large number of military vehicles came on the roads. In 1928 assembly of CKD Trucks and Cars was started by the wholly owned Indian subsidiary of American General Motors in Bombay and in 1930-31 by Canadian Ford Motors in Madras, Bombay and Calcutta. In 1935 the proposals of Sir M Visvesvaraya to set up an Automobile Industry were disallowed. 78 1942 Ltd incorporated and their first vehicle was made in 1950. In 1944 Automobiles Ltd incorporated and in 1947 their first vehicle was produced. In 1947 the Government of Bombay accepted a scheme of to replace the cycle rickshaw by the auto and assembly started in a couple of years under a license from Piaggio. Manufacturing Program for the auto and scooter was submitted in 1953 to the Tariff Commission and approved by the Government in 1959. In 1953 the Government decreed that only firms having a manufacturing program should be allowed to operate and mere assemblers of imported CKD units be asked to terminate operations in three years. Only seven firms namely Hindustan Motors Limited, Automobile Products of India Limited, Limited, Standard Motors Products of India Limited, Premier Automobiles Limited, Mahindra & Mahindra and TELCO received approval. M&M was manufacturing jeeps. Few more companies came up later. Government continued with its protectionism policies towards the industry. Automobile Products of India (API) and Enfield India had already commenced the manufacture of scooters, motorcycles, mopeds and autos from 1955.

http://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJMET 923 [email protected] Krishna Reddy and P V Vijay Kumar Reddy

In 1956, Bajaj Tempo Ltd entered the Indian market with a program of manufacturing Commercial Vehicles, and Simpson for making engines. AIA&AIA (association of the component manufacturers) came into being in 1959 and Government approved Bajaj Auto Ltd's plans for domestic manufacture of Vespa scooters and granted permission to produce 6000 units annually. 1960’s: In sixties 2 and 3 Wheeler segment established a foothold in the industry. Escorts and Ideal Jawa entered the field in the beginning of sixties. Association of Indian Automobile Manufacturers formally established in 1960. Between 1955 and 1960 only API was producing Mopeds. During the first half of the sixties three companies namely Mopeds India Ltd (1965), SZUL Gwalior (1964) and Pearl Scooters Ltd (1962) entered the arena. Standard Motors Products of India Ltd. moved over to the manufacture of Light Commercial Vehicles in 1965. Escorts and Enfield closed their scooter division and continued only with Motorcycle manufacturing. Entire scooter market was occupied by Bajaj Auto Ltd. and API in the sixties. 1970`s: Major factors affecting the industry's structure were the implementation of MRTP Act, FERA and Oil Shocks of 1973 and 1979. During this decade there was not much change in the four-wheeler industry except the entry of Automobiles in the small car market. In 1983 Maruti Udyog Ltd was started in collaboration with Suzuki, a Japanese firm. Other three Car manufacturers namely, Hindustan Motors Ltd., Premier Automobiles Ltd., Standard Motor Production of India Ltd. also introduced new models in the market. At the time there were five Passenger Car manufacturers in India - Maruti Udyog Ltd., Hindustan Motors Ltd., Post-1991, After Liberalization, the Freedom to Grow. Beginning with mid-1991 the government of India has made some radical changes in its polices bearing on trade, foreign investment, exchange rate, industry, fiscal affairs and so on. Mass Emission Norms were introduced for in 1991 for Petrol Vehicles and in 1992 for Diesel Vehicles. In 1991 new Industrial Policy was announced. It was the death of the License Raj and the Automobile Industry was allowed to expand. Further tightening of Emission norms was done in 1996. In 1997 National Highway Policy has been announced which will have a positive impact on the Automobile Industry. The Indian Automobile market in general and Passenger Cars in particular have witnessed liberalization. Many multinationals like Daewoo, , General Motors, Mercedes-Benz, Honda, Hyundai, , Mitsubishi, Suzuki, Volvo, Ford and entered the market. Various companies are coming up with state-of-art models of vehicles. TELCO has diversified in Passenger Car segment with Indica. Despite the adverse trend in the growth of the industry, it is resolutely trying to meet the challenges. Various issues of critical importance to the industry are being dealt with forcefully. In 1999 The Hon’ble Supreme Court passed an order directing all car manufacturers to comply with Euro I emission norms (India 2000 norms) by the 1st of May 1999 in National Capital Region (NCR) of Delhi. The deadline was later extended to 1st June 1999. The 90s have become the melting point for the car industry in India. The consumer is king. He is being constantly wooed by both the Indian and foreign manufacturers. Though sales had taken a 83 dip in the first few months of 1999, it is back to boom time. New models like Maruti’s Classic, Alto, Station Wagon, Ford’s Ikon and the new look Mitsubishi Lancer have all been launched with an eye on the emerging market.

http://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJMET 924 [email protected] Emergence of Automobile Industry in Indian Context - A Conceptual Study

6. AUTO MOBILE INDUSTRY IN INDIA PRESENT STATUS The Indian auto industry is one of the largest in the world. The industry accounts for 7.1 per cent of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The Two Wheelers segment with 80 per cent market share is the leader of the Indian Automobile market owing to a growing middle class and a young population. Moreover, the growing interest of the companies in exploring the rural markets further aided the growth of the sector. The overall Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment has 14 per cent market share (www.ibef.org) India is also a prominent auto exporter and has strong export growth expectations for the near future. Overall automobile exports grew 15.81 per cent year-on-year between April-February 2017-18. In addition, several initiatives by the Government of India and the major automobile players in the Indian market are expected to make India a leader in the 2W and Four Wheeler (4W) market in the world by 2020.(8)

6.1. Market Size Production of passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, three wheelers and two wheelers grew at 14.41 per cent year-on-year between April-February 2017-18 to 26,402,671 vehicles. The auto industry is set to witness major changes in the form of electric vehicles (EVs), shared mobility, Bharat Stage-VI emission and safety norms. Electric cars in India are expected to get new green number plates and may also get free parking for three years along with toll waivers. India's electric vehicle (EV) sales increased to 25,000 units during FY 2016-17 and are poised to rise further on the back of cheaper energy storage costs and the Government of India’s vision to see six million electric and hybrid vehicles in India by 2020.

6.2. Investments In order to keep up with the growing demand, several auto makers have started investing heavily in various segments of the industry during the last few months. The industry has attracted Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) worth US$ 18.413 billion during the period April 2000 to December 2017, according to data released by Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP). (9) [Media Reports, Press Releases, Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP), Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India (ACMA), Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), Union Budget 2015-16, Union Budget 2017-18] Some of the recent/planned investments and developments in the automobile sector in India are as follows: 1. The only electric automaker in India, Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd, has partnered with Uber for deploying its electric sedan e-Verito and hatchback e2o Plus on Uber platforms in New Delhi and Hyderabad. 2. Mahindra & Mahindra (M & M) is planning to make an additional investment of Rs 500 crore (US$ 77.23 million) for expanding the capacity for electric vehicles in its plant in Chakan.

6.3. Road Ahead The automobile industry is supported by various factors such as availability of skilled labour at low cost, robust R&D centres and low cost steel production. The industry also provides great opportunities for investment and direct and indirect employment to skilled and unskilled labour. The Indian automotive aftermarket is estimated to grow at around 10-15 per cent to reach US$ 16.5 billion by 2021 from around US$ 7 billion in 2016. It has the potential to generate

http://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJMET 925 [email protected] Krishna Reddy and P V Vijay Kumar Reddy up to US$ 300 billion in annual revenue by 2026, create 65 million additional jobs and contribute over 12 per cent to India’s Gross Domestic Product 10 [As per the Automotive Mission Plan 2016-26 prepared jointly by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) and government, @ - as per the draft policy on e-vehicles prepared by NITI Aayog, Government of India] Exchange Rate Used: INR 1 = US$ 0.015 as of March 1, 2018

7. CARMAKERS IN INDIA AND THEIR MARKET SHARE SOLD IN FY 2017-2018 The financial year 2017-18 has seen car sales in India crossing 3.28 million units for the first time in India and very soon is set to overtake Germany to become the third largest car market globally. Overall 3,287,965 units were sold in India in the domestic market last financial year at a growth rate of 7.89 percent. While many expected the passenger vehicle sales in India (Cars, SUVs, Vans) to report a double-digit growth, frequent changes to the tax structure post-GST and addition of cess of SUVs and premium cars did have an adverse effect that resulted in slowing down the pace. Sales of premium automakers like BMW India, , Mercedes-Benz India and Jaguar Land Rover are not included in this list.

Figure 3 Carmakers Market share in India (FY2017-18)

Source: Financial Express, Dated 11 April, 2018, Ronak Shah According to Ronak shah (Financial Article dated 11 April 2018) All car makers combined saw a total production of cars crossing the 4 million manufacturing milestone and Utility vehicle (UV) dominated by SUVs production crossing 1 million. These are also the highest ever sales and production numbers ever registered in India. There are about 16 major mass-market car manufacturers in India (excluding premium carmakers) out of which 15 sell cars in India. India’s largest automaker continues its strong domination on the Indian car market and sold a total of over 1.64 million vehicles in the domestic market bringing its market share very close to 50 percent. The company has not only managed to sustain its huge sales but have also increased its market share in both urban and rural buyers. New car launches like Maruti Suzuki Dzire, all-new Swift along with the constant demand of Maruti Suzuki Baleno and Vitara Brezza helped the company to achieve this huge growth. continues to remain the most sold car in India. The company also exported about 1.23 lakh units to its export markets. (11) Indian-arm of the Korean carmaker, Hyundai Motor India has also grown by over 5 percent in India and overall managed to sell over 5.36 lakh cars and grabbing a market share of 16.30 percent in India. The launch of facelifts of Hyundai Grand i10 and Hyundai i20

http://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJMET 926 [email protected] Emergence of Automobile Industry in Indian Context - A Conceptual Study along with all-new Verna backed by strong sales of Hyundai Creta has seen its manufacturing units in Chennai running full houses to cope up with the increasing demand. The company also exported over 1.53 lakh cars to various countries especially middle-east. Indian automakers, Mahindra & Mahindra and too have increased its market share in India. While for Mahindra it was a year of consolidation and despite no all-new launches by the company, it secured the number 3 spot in the Indian market by selling over 2.48 lakh cars and a market share of over 7.56 percent. Mahindra will launch a range of new vehicles this year which will further see more sales in India. Tata Motors’ aggression and launching new products like Tigor and Neon has proved to be extremely successful with Tata Tiago sales reaching all-time high, Tata overtook to become the fourth largest automaker in India. The company has sold 210,200 cars in the recently concluding fiscal. Other Japanese automakers’ including Honda Cars India and Toyota Kirloskar have seen some decline in its sales over last few months. However, Honda Cars India finished the year at industry growth rate and sold 170,026 units and the launch of its Honda WR-V SUV played a crucial role for the company to sustain sales. The company will launch its new Honda Amaze in May 2018 and will be followed by the return of Honda Civic and Honda CR-V SUV. Toyota in India sold about 1,40,645 units last year and expect it to gain market share by launching the new Toyota Yaris that will take on the likes of Maruti Suzuki Ciaz, Honda City and Hyundai Verna. Toyota owns about 4.27 percent market share in India. Renault’s sales in India has dropped by a massive 25 percent but still recorded a sales of over a lakh cars which is more than what and Volkswagen sold in India. Renault’s market share stands at 3.10 percent. ’s sales are reported at 90,061 units declining marginally by about 1.4 percent. However, Ford’s exports have gone up by 15 percent and the company exported over 1.81 lakh cars out of India overtaking Hyundai to become the number 1 exporter in the financial year 2017-18. Over 7 carmakers in India including the likes of Fiat India, Nissan India, Volkswagen India, Skoda Auto India, General Motors (sales before stopping domestic operations) and Isuzu combined together have a market share of 4.41 percent. Strong sales of Jeep Compass SUV helped FCA India to sell over 19,358 units. With no new products, Nissan-Datsun and Volkswagen sales in India continue to decline and stood at 52,796 units and 45,329 units respectively. Skoda Auto’s sales in India have gone up by over 21 percent at 17,387 units.

8. AUTOMOTIVE REVOLUTION – PERSPECTIVE TOWARDS 2030 According to McKinsey, report Automotive revolution – perspective towards 2030 dated Jan 2016 Today’s economies are dramatically changing, triggered by development in emerging markets, the accelerated rise of new technologies, sustainability policies, and changing consumer preferences around ownership. Digitization and new business models have revolutionized other industries, and automotive will be no exception. For the automotive sector, these forces are giving rise to four disruptive technology-driven trends: diverse mobility, autonomous driving, electrification, and connectivity. Eight key perspectives on the “2030 automotive revolution” to provide insights into the kind of changes that are coming and how they will affect traditional OEMs and suppliers, potential new players, regulators, consumers, national car markets, and the automotive value chain. (12)

http://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJMET 927 [email protected] Krishna Reddy and P V Vijay Kumar Reddy

8.1. Shifting markets and revenue pools Driven by shared mobility, connectivity services, and feature upgrades, new business models could expand automotive revenue pools by ~30 percent, adding up to ~USD 1.5 trillion Despite a shift towards shared mobility, vehicle unit sales will continue to grow, but likely at a lower rate of ~2 percent p.a.

8.2. Changes in mobility behavior Consumer mobility behavior is changing, leading to up to one out of ten cars sold in 2030 potentially being a shared vehicle and the subsequent rise of a market for fit-for-purpose mobility solutions. City type will replace country or region as the most relevant segmentation dimension that determines mobility behavior and, thus, the speed and scope of the automotive revolution. Automotive revolution perspective towards 2030.

8.3. Diffusion of advanced technology Once technological and regulatory issues have been resolved, up to 15 percent of new cars sold in 2030 could be fully autonomous. Electrified vehicles are becoming viable and competitive; however, the speed of their adoption will vary strongly at the local level. New competition and cooperation within a more complex and diversified mobility industry landscape, incumbent players will be forced to simultaneously compete on multiple fronts and cooperate with competitors. New market entrants are expected to initially target only specific, economically attractive segments and activities along the value chain before potentially exploring further fields. According to Arnab Basu joint leader Technology Consulting of PwC India, seeing the elements of Industry 4.0 becoming Key forces in reshaping the automotive manufacturing factories. Factories are becoming more digital and always connected. Also we are anticipating that industry 4.0 will create a flat form for nontraditional players to enter and compete in this sector.

9. SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT IN AUTOMOBILE According Sunil Chopra, Peter Meindl, and DV Kalra a supply chain consist of all parties involved, directly or indirectly on full filling a customer request. The supply chain includes not only the manufacture and suppliers, but also transporter, where houses, retailers and even customers themselves. Within each organization such as a manufacture, the supply chain includes all functions involved in receiving and filling a customer request. This fiction includes new product development, marketing, operations, and distribution, finance, and customer services. Supply chain stages:

Figure 4 SMDRC flow of goods The term supply chain management refers to cooperative management of materials and information flows between supply chain partners, to reach goals that cannot be achieved acting individually (Eric Sucky, 2005). The purpose of supply chain management is to improve trust and collaboration among supply chain artners, thus improving inventory visibility and the velocity of inventory movement (Choi and Hong, 2002). Emergence of new technologies and the ever increasing intensity of competition are forcing organizations, firms and industries to reexamine how they do business, meet new customer-driven challenges, companies are re-thinking, restructuring and re-investing their supply chains in order to survive, succeed, excel and even in some specific cases targeting to spearheading

http://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJMET 928 [email protected] Emergence of Automobile Industry in Indian Context - A Conceptual Study competitiveness (Drucker, 1998) Indian Automotive industry has been facing major challenges due to fierce competition, increasing operational complexity, technology changes, shortened product lifecycle and frequently changing customer needs. Despite high stocks, the performance of the supply chain has failed to meet customer expectations in terms of delivering the exact specification desired within an acceptable timescale. Today Indian automotive industry is completely capable of producing various kinds of vehicles and can be divided into three broad categories: two-wheelers, cars and heavy vehicles. Vast scope exists for Indian automobile and auto component manufacturers to reduce their logistics costs with the implementation of SCM solutions. As India is a developing country, and fascinatingly, there has been an upward trend of realization of supply chain optimization. SCM solution market has been making inroads in India and it is being established widely by many automobile industries in the country, particularly manufacturing ones where inventory carrying cost is very high. Several automobile manufacturers in India have taken positive actions to manage their logistics cost and get better customer services and measures have been undertaken by Indian companies to develop their supply chain (Kamala and Doreswamy, 2007). According Dharamvir Mangal, and Tarun Gupta was given conclusion Indian automobile and auto components industry is on a roll and there is a massive scope for improvement and augmentation of supply chain in this sector. India has become a most sought after destination for foreign companies to establish their facilities and form alliances with domestic companies. The Indian economy is now gaining momentum in the world of free trade and liberal movements of goods and services between countries. Low cost of manufacturing and conducive government support have been the major drivers for foreign companies investing in India. Therefore efficiency in supply chain will be critical for India’s automobile success.

9.1. Building world class automotive supply chains in India According to The Confederation Indian Industry (CII) and AT Kearney conducted jointly survey report the Indian Auto Motive Industry is experiencing an interesting evolutionary phase. The long term growth story is strong, but short term volatility is creating a environment of uncertainty. Most global OEM’s view India as strategic market of the future, and as a result competence is intensifying. Based on A.T. Kearney’s extensive experience in the Indian automotive sector and detailed conversations with C level executives and supply chain professionals, there are seven industry trends that are likely to have an impact on the evolution of the automotive supply chain. The Following tends are likely to be affect India’s automotive supply chain  Long Term secular growth and volatility  Escalating costs if supply chain operations  Growth of export  Shortage and talent to fill key roles  Regulatory challenges and Opportunities  Fast growing after market  Accelerate collaboration across the value chain  Innovate in cost management

http://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJMET 929 [email protected] Krishna Reddy and P V Vijay Kumar Reddy

9.2. Logistics costs are high for India’s automotive supply chain The cost logistics has a big impact on the supply chain because of India’s predominant use of road transport. Logistics costs as a percent sales are about 1 to 1.5 % higher than the other Asian markets. Fuel and wages, which drive up road transport cost are expected increase cost. (13)

Figure 5 Logistics costs as % of sales

(Source: Annual reports: A.T. Kearney Analysis)

9.3. Key supply chain challenges According to National Highway administration (http://www.inspirage.com/2016/07/)supply- chain-challenges-automotive-industry/) some of the most common supply chain challenges within the automobile industry have to do with keeping inventories well-stocked but not overstocked. IndustryWeek contributor Vincent Pavlak noted that because the growth in the automotive industry over the last few years has been optimistic, it's harder to keep up with increased volumes. This difficulty has led to some supply shortages, and the problem is compounded by capacity loss and the loss of employee knowledge that occurred when the industry experienced its downturn in 2008 and 2009. Another important issue facing automotive manufacturers is the sheer amount of recalls that have been issued in recent years. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has estimated that a staggering 51 million vehicles were recalled in 2015 alone. All of these recalls present a key problem to manufacturers, besides the obvious loss of revenue from the actual vehicles themselves: They have to change their products to fix the issues brought to light by the recalls, and they have to re-engineer their operations – sometimes their entire supply chain – to reflect these changes. Further challenges of this global marketplace lie in the volatility of demand. Different markets will have different tastes in cars, so automotive suppliers have to find ways to account for the demand for various brands and, complicating things further, for the differing tastes within one brand (for instance, the demand for a blue vehicle versus a red one).(14), (15), (16), (17), (18).

REFERENCES

[1] https://www.ibef.org [2] Automotive Mission Plan 2016-26 (A Curtain raiser) “ AMP Plan 2026 is the collective vision of Government of India [3] www.valueline.com/tocks/Industries/Industry_Analysis__Automotive Dated September 11, 2015 [4] Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM). 2018 [5] S&P Global ratings, Global Auto Industry 2018: At a Crossroad (www.standardandpoors.com)

http://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJMET 930 [email protected] Emergence of Automobile Industry in Indian Context - A Conceptual Study

[6] www.oica.net/category/production-statistics/2017-statistics [7] www.statista.com/statistics/200002/international-car-sales-since-1990 [8] Indian Brand Equity Foundation Reports, Feb-2018 [9] Media Reports, Press Releases, Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP), Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India (ACMA), Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), Union Budget 2015-16, Union Budget 2017-18 [10] Automotive Mission Plan 2016-26 prepared jointly by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) and government, @ - as per the draft policy on e-vehicles prepared by NITI Aayog, Government of India [11] Financial Express, Dated 11 April,2018, Ronak Shah [12] McKinsey, report Automotive revolution – perspective towards 2030 dated Jan 2016 [13] The Confederation Indian Industry (CII) and AT Kearney conducted jointly survey report [14] http://www.inspirage.com/2016/07Supply chain challenges in the automotive industry [15] S.N. Teli, Dr.V.S. Majali, Dr.U.M. Bhushi and Sunil Gaikwaid, Daily Management Process For Reduce Cost Of Quality In Automobile Industry, Journal of Mechanical Engineering and Technology (JMET), Volume 1, Issue 1, July-December (2013), pp. 45- 53. [16] Madhuranjan Vatsa, Milindo Chakrabarti and Rajesh Kumar, Analysis of Green Marketing Trend in Passenger Car Segment of Indian Automobile Industry. International Journal of Management, 7(6), 2016, pp. 181–188. [17] B.Asha and Dr. Jayasree Krishnan. An Examination of Emotional Intelligence (EI) Factors on Work-Related Outcome among Employees of Automobile Industry. International Journal of Management, 7(3), 2016, pp. 293–297. [18] Dr. Nirzar Kulkarni. A Study on Relationship Between Employee Performance with High Performance HR System in Automobile Industry of Nagpur. Journal of Management, 4(2), 2017, pp. 74–80.

http://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJMET 931 [email protected]