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Monetary Policy Under Inflation Targeting: an Introduction

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Monetary Policy Under Inflation Targeting: an Introduction Banco Central de Chile Documentos de Trabajo Central Bank of Chile Working Papers N° 396 Diciembre 2006 MONETARY POLICY UNDER INFLATION TARGETING: AN INTRODUCTION Frederic S. Mishkin Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel La serie de Documentos de Trabajo en versión PDF puede obtenerse gratis en la dirección electrónica: http://www.bcentral.cl/esp/estpub/estudios/dtbc. Existe la posibilidad de solicitar una copia impresa con un costo de $500 si es dentro de Chile y US$12 si es para fuera de Chile. Las solicitudes se pueden hacer por fax: (56-2) 6702231 o a través de correo electrónico: [email protected]. Working Papers in PDF format can be downloaded free of charge from: http://www.bcentral.cl/eng/stdpub/studies/workingpaper. Printed versions can be ordered individually for US$12 per copy (for orders inside Chile the charge is Ch$500.) Orders can be placed by fax: (56-2) 6702231 or e-mail: [email protected]. BANCO CENTRAL DE CHILE CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE La serie Documentos de Trabajo es una publicación del Banco Central de Chile que divulga los trabajos de investigación económica realizados por profesionales de esta institución o encargados por ella a terceros. El objetivo de la serie es aportar al debate temas relevantes y presentar nuevos enfoques en el análisis de los mismos. La difusión de los Documentos de Trabajo sólo intenta facilitar el intercambio de ideas y dar a conocer investigaciones, con carácter preliminar, para su discusión y comentarios. La publicación de los Documentos de Trabajo no está sujeta a la aprobación previa de los miembros del Consejo del Banco Central de Chile. Tanto el contenido de los Documentos de Trabajo como también los análisis y conclusiones que de ellos se deriven, son de exclusiva responsabilidad de su o sus autores y no reflejan necesariamente la opinión del Banco Central de Chile o de sus Consejeros. The Working Papers series of the Central Bank of Chile disseminates economic research conducted by Central Bank staff or third parties under the sponsorship of the Bank. The purpose of the series is to contribute to the discussion of relevant issues and develop new analytical or empirical approaches in their analyses. The only aim of the Working Papers is to disseminate preliminary research for its discussion and comments. Publication of Working Papers is not subject to previous approval by the members of the Board of the Central Bank. The views and conclusions presented in the papers are exclusively those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Central Bank of Chile or of the Board members. Documentos de Trabajo del Banco Central de Chile Working Papers of the Central Bank of Chile Agustinas 1180 Teléfono: (56-2) 6702475; Fax: (56-2) 6702231 Documento de Trabajo Working Paper N° 396 N° 396 MONETARY POLICY UNDER INFLATION TARGETING: AN INTRODUCTION Frederic S. Mishkin Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel Gerente de Investigación Económica Columbia University Banco Central de Chile Resumen Esta breve revisión hace un recorrido por la literatura reciente sobre política monetaria bajo metas de inflación y presenta nuevos resultados analíticos y estudios empíricos en la materia. Se examinan seis áreas centrales de la investigación previa: puesta en práctica y optimalidad de los principales atributos del esquema de metas de inflación; política monetaria óptima; incertidumbre, aprendizaje y política monetaria; transparencia, comunicación y capacidad de rendir cuentas; precios de activos y política monetaria; y comparación del desempeño económico con y sin metas de inflación. La revisión sugiere que hay aún numerosas preguntas abiertas, las cuales fueron abordadas en los trece innovadores trabajos que se presentaron en la Conferencia Anual del Banco Central de Chile de 2005, y que se resumen aquí. Abstract This brief review takes stock of the recent literature on monetary policy under inflation targeting and introduces new analytical and empirical research in this field. Six key areas of previous research are reviewed: the practice and optimality of inflation targeting regime features; optimal monetary policy; uncertainty, learning, and monetary policy; transparency, communication, and accountability; asset prices and monetary policy; and economic performance under inflation targeting and in comparison to non-targeting regimes. The review suggests a significant number of open issues that are addressed in 13 new contributions presented at the 2005 Annual Conference of the Central Bank of Chile, which are summarized here. _______________ We thank Fabián Gredig and Mauricio Larraín for assisting us with assembling material for this introduction. E-mails: [email protected]; [email protected]. MONETARY POLICY UNDER INFLATION TARGETING: AN INTRODUCTION Frederic S. Mishkin Columbia University Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel Central Bank of Chile With the end of intermediate exchange rate regimes, countries are either abandoning domestic monetary policy (by choosing super- hard pegs or relinquishing their national currencies altogether) or strengthening independent monetary policymaking (by adopting floating exchange rates, of either the clean or dirty variety) (Fischer, 2001; Calvo and Mishkin, 2003). Among monetary regimes, inflation targeting has become the natural complement of flexible exchange rate regimes. Many countries—which differ in size, structural features, and development level—have selected inflation-targeting-cum-floating as their preferred framework for pursuing a more independent and effective monetary policy. This choice is often made by instrument- independent central banks in open economies with a history of inflation, which need to establish a credible monetary anchor to promote price stability (Mishkin and Schmidt-Hebbel, 2002). Therefore, since New Zealand first adopted inflation targeting in 1990, a steadily growing number of industrial and emerging economies have implemented an explicit inflation target as their nominal anchor. Eight industrial countries and seventeen emerging economies currently have full- fledged inflation targeting in place, and many more emerging economies are planning to adopt inflation targeting in the next few years. The theory and practice of monetary policy under inflation targeting have evolved hand in hand, with mutually beneficial effects. Academic researchers and central bankers are collaborating We thank Fabián Gredig and Mauricio Larraín for assisting us with assembling material for this introduction. Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edited by Frederic Mishkin and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, Santiago, Chile. © 2007 Central Bank of Chile. 1 2 Frederic S. Mishkin and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting: An Introduction 3 in analyzing monetary theory and policy results, as well as improving policy design and conduct, in both inflation-targeting and nontargeting central banks. This collaboration gives rise to joint academic–central bank research, conferences, and publications, like the one for which this introduction is written. Several volumes have been published on the theory, design, implementation, and performance of inflation-targeting regimes, including Haldane (1995), Leiderman and Svensson (1995), Lowe (1997), Bernanke and others (1999), Bank of Thailand (2000), Carson, Enoch, and Dziobek (2002), Loayza and Soto (2002), Truman (2003), Reserve Bank of Australia (2004), and Bernanke and Woodford (2005). These works typically combine the study of theoretical questions on monetary theory and policy design under inflation targeting with new empirical evidence on policy and macroeconomic performance, based on the growing body of data pertaining to the rising number of inflation-targeting countries. In the following section, we selectively review the literature on inflation targeting. We then discuss the new research on monetary policy under inflation targeting introduced here (in this volume) and summarize its main findings. 1. A SELECTIVE REVIEW OF RESEARCH ON INFLATION TARGETING A large and growing literature focuses on monetary theory, monetary policy, and macroeconomic performance under an inflation- targeting regime. This is part of a much larger analytical and empirical literature on monetary theory and policy outcomes. The boundaries between the general research and that referring specifically to inflation targeting are sometimes blurred, as is clear in this review. Considering the latter fact and the sheer size of the current research, we focus selectively on six issues of monetary policy design and practice that are of central relevance to the inflation targeting debate. 1.1 Practice and Optimality of Inflation-Targeting Regimes A growing literature addresses the optimal choice of the parameters that define an inflation-targeting regime. While all countries have formally chosen inflation over price-level targeting to date, the debate about the optimality of inflation versus price-level 2 Frederic S. Mishkin and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting: An Introduction 3 targeting has not been closed. Inflation targeting dominates price-level targeting in riding out temporary inflation shocks and in avoiding costly contractionary policy offsets and excessive inflation variability (Fischer, 1996). Price-level targeting, however, may do a better job than inflation targeting in avoiding a random drift in the price level and reducing price-level uncertainty (Fischer, 1996); in delivering lower output and inflation volatility (Svensson, 1999; Chadha and Nolan, 2002); in allowing relative prices to allocate
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