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RISK MANAGEMENT a Guide to Managing Project Risks and Opportunities Project and Program hbNIVEE31DAD 3E BELGhtAF4G Gsiito de Esrlidicls de Posyrado y Edt~cactoriZontmua RISK MANAGEMENT A Guide to Managing Project Risks and Opportunities Edited By: R. Max Wideman Fellow, PMI A Publication of the Project Management Institute Four Campus Boulevard Newtown Square, Pennsylvania 19073 USA 610/356-4600 Fax: 610/356-4647 E-mail: [email protected] Web: http:/,www.pmi.org Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Foreword Edited by: Wideman, R. Max. Project and program risk management: a guide to managing project risks This publication is the second in a series of nine handbooks devel- and opportunities/R. Max Wideman oped by the Project Management Institute (PMI). The series is designed p. cm .-(The PMBOK handbook series: v.no.6) to complement the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) Includes bibliographical references. as codified by PMI. ISBN 1-880410-00-1 (10 vol. set).-ISBN 1-880410-06-0 (vo1.6) This handbook deals with the function of Risk Management in the 1. Industrial project management. 2. Risk management. I. Title. 11. Series. context of project or program management. It establishes the need for HD69.P76W54 1992 examining risks and opportunities in project work and describes ap- 658.4'04-dc20 92-3336 proaches which can lead to significant reduction of the risks as well as to CIP better project performance. This is a sometimes overlooked aspect of project management which can often result in significant improvements ISBN 1-880410-06-0 (Volume 6) in the ultimate success of the project. 1-880410-00-1 (10 Volume Set) This handbook should appeal equally to those who are looking for a summary of the basics of project and program risk management, as well as to those who are studying for PMI's certification program. In addition, the material in the handbook will benefit course developers, trainers and academics who are seeking guidance as to appropriate project and pro- gram risk management educational content. In keeping with previous practice, this first printing of the handbook is being made available as a "Preliminary Issue for Trial Use and Com- ment." Since the content is tied specifically to the PMBOK, it is important to ensure that PMI members support the material and its manner of presentation. I hope, therefore, that readers will take a moment to contrib- ute constructive suggestions for improving and upgrading the next issue Copyright 01992 by the Project Management Institute. All rights reserved. by completing and returning the Comments page at the end of this book. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any The material in this handbook has been assembled entirely by volun- form or by any means, electronic, manual, photocopying, recording, or by any information storage tary PMI member effort and, as anyone knows who has been involved in and retrieval system, without prior written permission of the publisher. similar undertakings, requires many hours of dedicated effort. In partic- ular I would like to acknowledge the efforts of Max Wideman and the "PMI" is a federally registered trade and service mark; "PMP" and the PMP logo are federally many people who provided comments and suggestions on the various registered certification marks; and the PMI logo, "PMBOK" and "Building professionalism in project drafts. To all those who contributed their thoughts and writings to this management." are trademarks of Project Management Institute. first issue, I express our appreciation for a job well done! PMI books are available at quantity discounts. For more information, please write to the Business Manager, PMI Publishing Division, Forty Colonial Square, Sylva, North Carolina, 28779 USA. Or Rodney J. Dawson contact your local bookstore. President, Project Management Institute The paper used in this book complies with the Permanent Paper Standard issued by the National Information Standards Organization (239.48-1984). Preface Acknowledgments Welcome to project and program risk management! Understandably, the risks associated with large and very large pro- In a very real sense, progress is made by spotting opportunities and jects have received noteworthy attention in the literature, because of the taking advantage of them. Once identified, the most aggressive way of taking substantial sums of money involved on the one hand, and the political advantage of such opportunities is by establishing a project. Thus, the whole and professional reputations of the sponsors on the other. On lesser point of a project is to introduce some change which wiU be beneficial in projects, however, aspects of the project which may be at risk are fre- financial or other ways to the sponsors and users of the project. quently submerged in an all-encompassing "contingency allowance" de- However, introducing change means introducing something new, to termined as a result of some previous experience. For many, this approach venture forth, to take some risks. So risks are the corollary of opportunity. They may be quite satisfactory, yet closer examination of the subject indicates represent exposure to mischance, hazards, and the possibility of adverse that including risk as a pro-active management function provides project consequences. They are the down-side of a prom undertaking. While pro* management with an added management opportunity. management is the best way of manapg opportunity, taking risks has always Project and Program Risk Management furnishes the chance to better been a fundamental part of the process, and this needs to be pro-actively understand the nature of the project at hand, to involve team members in managed through the function of Pro* and Program Risk Management. its strengths and weaknesses, and generally to integrate the core functions Generally, when we speak of taking a risk we tend to think of those of Scope, Quality, Time and Cost with the interactive functions of Human things which are at long odds, are highly chancy and possibly hazardous. Resources, Contract/Procurement, and lnformation/Communications Yet many risks we take in everyday life are so commonplace that we scarcely management. For these reasons, PMI early recognized the importance of gve them a thought. Instead, we treat them as mere uncertainties and react this subject to the overall success of a project, no matter what its size or to them subconsciously, taking precautions that experience has taught us are area of application, and so identified Project and Program Risk Manage- only prudent. ment as a separate PMBOK topic. However, in today's markets with more difficult economic conditions, Once again many PMI members, too numerous to cite all by name, tougher competition, and ever advancing technology, project uncertainty have enthusiastically volunteered material, suggestions and encourage- and risk have assumed sigruficantly greater proportions. Indeed, in most ment for the development of this handbook. I would, however, like to projects, not only are the uncertainties and risks numerous, but they are also mention a few who have been particular contributors or my mentors in interrelated. This affects project results in complex ways, making it difficult this effort: Mike Curran, David Hamburger, and Bill Hosley for most for management to be confident in forecasting the final results. helpful explanations, conversations and text; David Hulett for a copy of Therefore, Project and Program Risk Management is seen as the formal an excellent Orange County Chapter workshop handout on Risk Manage- process whereby the risks and opportunities are systematically identified, ment; Pat Buckley and Bill Duncan for a change in emphasis; Chris Quaife assessed and appropriately provided for in the course of project planning for both written contributions and thorough and perceptive comments on and implementation. It means taking a pro-active stance to cultivate an my original texts; and Davidson Frame for encouragement and testing the environment in which project and program risks are sigruficantlyreduced, handbook in one of his classes. I am sure that readers will benefit greatly if not eliminated entirely, and opportunities are cultivated. Project and from their work. Any errors of interpretation or omissions are, of course, Program Risk Management should encompass the full spectrum of activities my own responsibility. associated with the handling of project uncertainties. As always, my wife Audrey has been most supportive of this work As one of project management's integrative functions (see PMBOK and patiently endured through many hours of moans and groans arising Handbook Volume 1, A Framework for Projecf and Program Management from the effort of putting pen to paper (or more contemporarily, fingers Integration) Project and Program Risk Management is inextricably tied into to keyboard). each of the other project management functions, especially the four basic project constraints of Scope, Quabty, Time and Cost. It is, therefore, a key function of the project management process. However, management's atti- R. Max Wideman, Fellow, PMI Editor tude towards risk, in many cases, is governed by the extent of their under- standing of the risk management process, their confidence in the associated techniques and in the analyhcal results obtained. Others consider the subject too mathematical, yet many risks relate to people and their attitudes. Hence the need for this handbook iii Contents Chapter VI Risk Response and Documentation Response Options ............... VI .l Foreword
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