British Columbia Utilities Commission
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David Bennett FortisBC Inc. Vice President, Suite 100 - 1975 Springfield Road Regulatory Affairs & General Counsel Kelowna, BC V1Y 7V7 Ph: 250 717 0853 Fax: 866 605 9431 [email protected] www.fortisbc.com February 18, 2008 Via Email Original via Courier Ms. Erica M. Hamilton Commission Secretary BC Utilities Commission Sixth Floor, 900 Howe Street, Box 250 Vancouver, BC V6Z 2N3 Dear Ms. Hamilton: Re: An Application for a CPCN for the Okanagan Transmission Reinforcement (OTR) Project No. 3698488 Please find enclosed FortisBC Inc.’s responses to BC Utilities Commission Information Request No. 1. Twenty copies will be couriered to the Commission. Sincerely, David Bennett Vice President, Regulatory Affairs and General Counsel cc: Registered Intervenors Project No. 3698488: Okanagan Transmission Reinforcement (OTR) Project Requestor Name: BC Utilities Commission Information Request No: 1 To: FortisBC Inc. Request Date: January 22, 2008 Response Date: February 18, 2008 1 1.0 Load Forecast 2 Reference: Exhibit B-1-1; Tab 3; Section 3.1 3 Q1.1 S 3.1.2.1 Load Forecast 4 Q1.1.1 Please describe the basis of the data used in this section: i.e. are 5 the data used average, high or low forecasts? Please provide 6 data and charts in Figures 3-1-2-1A to 3-1-3-5B showing the high, 7 mean and low forecasts comprising the range of estimates for 8 load growth. 9 A1.1.1 The forecast values are expected values. High and low forecasts were 10 not developed. Please see the responses to BCUC IR No.1 Q6.2 and 11 Q6.3 for a discussion of the sensitivity of Project timing and scope to 12 load growth 13 Q1.1.2 Please describe the basis and source of the economic/growth 14 assumptions on which the load growth forecasts are based. i.e. 15 are the forecasts a linear projection of recent load growth 16 experience? To what extent do the load forecasts take into 17 account forward economic forecasts? 18 A1.1.2 For system planning purposes, load forecasts are determined at the 19 distribution feeder level and are built up to the transformer to station 20 and finally to the terminal station level, using historical coincident 21 factors. The forecasts are generally based on linear projections of 22 recent load growth. Where appropriate, these projections are adjusted 23 to reflect information available through the relevant Official Community 24 Plans and through FortisBC’s ongoing discussions with regional or 25 municipal planners and local developers. Page 1 Project No. 3698488: Okanagan Transmission Reinforcement (OTR) Project Requestor Name: BC Utilities Commission Information Request No: 1 To: FortisBC Inc. Request Date: January 22, 2008 Response Date: February 18, 2008 1 2.0 Load Forecast - Components and Variation 2 Reference: Exhibit B-1-1, Tab 3, Section 3.1, p. 2 3 Q2.1 Is the “previous forecast” that is referred to on line 23 the 2005 SDP 4 forecast? If not, please identify the forecast, and provide a copy of those 5 forecast figures. 6 A2.1 Yes, the “previous forecast” that is referred to on line 23 refers to the 2005 SDP 7 forecast. 8 Q2.2 Please show, by rate class, the variations from the previous forecast in 9 terms of changes in number of accounts and changes in per-customer 10 use-rates. 11 A2.2 Peak load forecasts (2005 SDP and 2007 SDP Update) are not class-specific. 12 Provided below in Table 2.2 (a) are the forecast and actual percentage changes 13 in total number of Customer Accounts by Rate Class, based on load forecasts 14 for FortisBC’s Revenue Requirements applications. 15 Table: 2.2 (a) Forecast and Actual Customer Growth by Rate Class 2005 2006 2007 Rate Class Forecast Actual Forecast Actual Forecast Actual Residential 2.2% 3.4% 1.8% 2.7% 1.8% 1.9% General Service 3.8% 1.1% 3.1% 2.7% 4.3% 3.2% Industrial 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 0.0% Wholesale 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -12.5% -12.5% Other 0.0% -16.2% 0.0% 17.6% -2.6% -1.4% Total Company 2.3% 2.8% 1.9% 2.6% 1.9% 2.0% 16 FortisBC utilizes use per customer for forecasting residential and general 17 service classes only. Industrial and wholesale load forecasts are based on 18 individual customer forecasts. Page 2 Project No. 3698488: Okanagan Transmission Reinforcement (OTR) Project Requestor Name: BC Utilities Commission Information Request No: 1 To: FortisBC Inc. Request Date: January 22, 2008 Response Date: February 18, 2008 1 Provided below in Table 2.2 (b) are the forecast and actual energy usage 2 (MWh/customer). 3 Table: 2.2 (b) Forecast and Actual Per Customer Usage 4 (MW.h) by Rate Class 2005 2006 2007 Rate Class Forecast Actual Forecast Actual Forecast Actual Residential 12.34 12.59 12.35 12.55 12.14 12.70 General Service 55.83 55.66 55.92 59.02 58.05 59.28 Industrial 8,575.00 9,030.26 9,455.59 8,942.31 9,030.67 8,721.13 Wholesale 120,500.00 114,513.64 116,857.29 119,097.71 118,459.73 108,971.98 Other 18.21 18.68 18.65 18.98 20.74 20.77 6 Q2.3 Please identify which variations FortisBC expects to be of a single-event 7 nature, and which are indicative of trends that are anticipated to continue 8 into the future. 9 A2.3 Residential: The 2007 residential customer count growth is lower than both 10 recent history and future expectations. (The recent high residential customer 11 count growth has been primarily driven by growth in the Okanagan area.) The 12 residential use per customer has been generally declining and is expected to do 13 so in the future. 14 General Service: The general service customer count growth has been 15 approximately three percent annually. This growth rate is expected to continue 16 in the foreseeable future. The general service use per customer has been 17 steadily increasing and is expected to do so in the future. 18 Industrial: The industrial customer count has historically been fairly steady. In 19 2008 it is expected that industrial customers will decline from 38 to 36 20 customers due to the slowdown in the forestry industry. Both of these two Page 3 Project No. 3698488: Okanagan Transmission Reinforcement (OTR) Project Requestor Name: BC Utilities Commission Information Request No: 1 To: FortisBC Inc. Request Date: January 22, 2008 Response Date: February 18, 2008 1 industrial customers are south of Penticton. Beyond 2008 the number of 2 industrial customers is expected to once again stabilize. The use per industrial 3 customer has been decreasing slightly due in part to the slowdown in the 4 forestry sector and to a plant optimization by a large industrial customer. The 5 slowdown in the forestry sector and the plant optimization both have occurred 6 outside of the Penticton to Kelowna area. 7 Wholesale: The wholesale customer count has remained at 8 until 2007 when 8 FortisBC converted Princeton Light and Power from one wholesale customer 9 into 3,212 direct customers. It is expected that the number of wholesale 10 customers will remain at seven for the foreseeable future. The wholesale use 11 per customer tends to fluctuate year by year however generally has been 12 increasing at a rate of approximately two percent annually and is expected to 13 continue in the future. 14 Other (Street Light and Irrigation): The Other customer count tends to 15 fluctuate annually however has been fairly constant over the long term. No 16 change is expected in the future. The use per customer in the Other category 17 has been increasing slightly and is expected to continue. Page 4 Project No. 3698488: Okanagan Transmission Reinforcement (OTR) Project Requestor Name: BC Utilities Commission Information Request No: 1 To: FortisBC Inc. Request Date: January 22, 2008 Response Date: February 18, 2008 1 3.0 Load Forecast - Indirect Customers 2 Reference: Exhibit B-1-1, Tab 3, Section 3.1, p. 3 3 Q3.1 Who are the “indirect customers” that are referred to in Table 3-1-2? 4 A3.1 The indirect customers referred to in Table 3-1-2 are those served by FortisBC's 5 wholesale customers in the region: the City of Penticton, the District of 6 Summerland and the City of Kelowna. 7 Q3.2 What is the distribution of the indirect customers as to rate classes? 8 A3.2 The information in Table A3.2 below was provided to FortisBC in February 9 2007. The relative proportions are not expected to have changed significantly. 10 Table: A3.2 Indirect Customer Count as of February 28, 2007 General Residential Total Service District of Summerland 4,769 472 5,241 City of Kelowna 11,681 1,274 12,955 City of Penticton 14,306 1,664 15,970 Total 30,756 3,410 34,166 Page 5 Project No. 3698488: Okanagan Transmission Reinforcement (OTR) Project Requestor Name: BC Utilities Commission Information Request No: 1 To: FortisBC Inc. Request Date: January 22, 2008 Response Date: February 18, 2008 1 4.0 Load Forecast - Components and Constraints 2 Reference: Exhibit B-1-1, Tab 3, Section 3.1, p. 4 3 Q4.1 Please show a version of Figure 3-1-2-1A depicting the following series: 4 unconstrained forecast total load (as opposed to load growth); 5 constrained forecast total load with the OTR Project; constrained forecast 6 total load with the existing system.