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Universita' Degli Studi Di Padova UNIVERSITA’ DEGLI STUDI DI PADOVA DIPARTIMENTO DI SCIENZE ECONOMICHE ED AZIENDALI “M.FANNO” DIPARTIMENTO DI SCIENZE STATISTICHE CORSO DI LAUREA IN ECONOMIA PROVA FINALE “IL MERCATO DISCOGRAFICO NEL XXI SECOLO E LA RINASCITA DEL VINILE” RELATRICE: CHIARISSIMA PROF.: ALESSANDRA DALLA VALLE LAUREANDO: VITTORIO COMAND MATRICOLA: 1115779 ANNO ACCADEMICO 2018-2019 1 2 Sommario Introduzione ................................................................................................................................ 5 Capitolo 1 ................................................................................................................................... 6 1.1 L’industria discografica americana: uno sguardo d’insieme ............................................ 6 1.2 La catena di valore dell’industria discografica ................................................................. 9 1.3 I fattori della crisi del mercato discografico ................................................................... 11 1.4 I modelli di distribuzione ................................................................................................ 14 1.5 L’industria musicale dopo la crisi del nuovo millennio ................................................. 18 Capitolo 2: il vinile ................................................................................................................... 19 2.1 Il ritorno del vinile .......................................................................................................... 19 2.2 La causa del ritorno del vinile ......................................................................................... 21 2.3 Le vendite fisiche e lo streaming .................................................................................... 23 2.4 Previsioni di vendita con i modelli di regressione .......................................................... 31 2.5 Conclusioni ..................................................................................................................... 34 Bibliografia e sitografia ............................................................................................................ 36 3 4 Introduzione Il seguente elaborato ha come obiettivo l’analisi dell’andamento del mercato discografico americano, in particolare modo puntando l’attenzione sul prodotto del vinile, che negli ultimi anni ha subito un inaspettato ritorno sul mercato. Nel Capitolo 1 si va in primis a guardare alle dimensioni dell’industria discografica americana (1.1), il mercato di riferimento in questa tesi. Dopodiché, analizzeremo la catena di valore dell’industria discografica (1.2) e come questa sia stata messa in crisi a partire dagli anni 2000 (1.3). Poi andremo a guardare, nel panorama musicale attuale, quali opzioni ha un artista per la distribuzione della propria musica (1.4) e quale sia la situazione odierna del mercato musicale (1.5) Nel capitolo 2, invece, andremo a focalizzarci sulla nicchia del vinile. Dopo aver guardato in che modo il vinile stia tornando a essere un prodotto richiesto sul mercato (2.1), cercheremo di capire quali possono essere le cause che hanno portato a questo fenomeno (2.2). Successivamente metteremo in relazione l’aumento delle vendite del vinile con l’affermazione sul mercato discografico dello streaming (2.3), costruendo dei modelli di regressione che mettono in relazione questi due fenomeni. Infine, andremo a inserire ai nostri modelli alcune stime effettuate da aziende operanti all’interno del settore musicale (2.4) e trarremo le nostre conclusioni sulle possibilità di crescita della nicchia del vinile (2.5). Il mercato discografico, da quando è nato sul finire del XIX secolo fino a oggi, ha cambiato più volte forma e maniera di arrivare al pubblico, trasformando la musica da forma d’arte a vero e proprio prodotto di consumo. La situazione con cui ci andiamo a confrontare oggi è frutto di un percorso lungo più di cento anni, dove non solo le innovazioni tecnologiche hanno sensibilmente cambiato il formato fisico del prodotto musicale fino ad arrivare alla sua totale smaterializzazione, ma anche il concetto stesso di opera musicale – che sia colta o popolare – è stato ribaltato in favore di quella che è stata definita musica liquida. La musica, nel corso degli anni, è passata dall’essere un concetto artistico a prodotto industriale: l’etichetta discografica assurge al ruolo di fabbrica, il cui prodotto è il disco, che viene inserito in una contesto di mercato con l’obiettivo di andare incontro ai gusti di una nicchia di pubblico e di realizzare il maggior margine di profitto possibile per l’etichetta. È importante sottolineare questo notevole cambio di prospettiva nei confronti della musica per cercare di comprenderne le dinamiche di mercato: dal momento in cui la musica diventa un prodotto di consumo, la figura del musicista cambia completamente il modo di approcciarsi al mercato, ritrovandosi inevitabilmente a confrontarsi con le etichette discografiche per poter guadagnare. L’industria discografica come la conosciamo oggi ha iniziato a svilupparsi a partire dalla fine del XIX secolo (Suisman, 2009): se, dal Rinascimento fino a quel momento, l’unico modo di commercializzare la musica al di fuori dei concerti dal vivo era attraverso l’acquisto degli spartiti musicali da poter interpretare a casa, l’introduzione della registrazione sonora ha completamente rivoluzionato il modo di usufruire della musica. In particolare, con l’invenzione del fonografo da parte di Thomas Edison nel 1877 e la sua successiva commercializzazione, vennero gettate le basi per la nascita del mercato discografico. I primi fonografi divennero un prodotto rivolto a chiunque avesse la passione per la musica anche senza essere in grado di suonare uno strumento, rendendo quindi molto più accessibile la fruizione della musica. Successivamente, lo stesso fonografo venne a sua volta sostituito dal grammofono, invenzione attribuita a Emile Berliner, con cui si introdusse per la prima volta il formato del disco, di ben più facile produzione rispetto al cilindro sviluppato da Edison. A questa invenzione si affiancò l’utilizzo della radio come mezzo di comunicazione di massa a partire dagli anni Venti. Fu più o meno da questo momento in poi che l’industria discografica 5 iniziò il suo percorso di crescita, con la nascita delle prime case discografiche. Andiamo quindi a osservare maggiormente nel dettaglio quali cambiamenti ed evoluzioni hanno caratterizzato quest’industria nel corso del tempo. Capitolo 1 1.1 L’industria discografica americana: uno sguardo d’insieme Prima di entrare nel pieno dell’analisi, è importante sottolineare la sottile ma fondamentale distinzione che c’è fra industria musicale e industria discografica (Byrne, 2017): per industria musicale si definisce il settore economico che si occupa della produzione e della distribuzione musicale, mentre l’industria discografica inquadra nello specifico il settore riguardante la produzione della musica registrata. Di conseguenza, l’industria musicale è una definizione più ampia che include tutto il settore relativo alla musica, di cui l’industria discografica è una consistente porzione. Spesso i due termini vengono erroneamente utilizzati come sinonimi, mentre in questo caso noi ci concentreremo solamente sull’industria discografica. Il più grande mercato musicale su scala mondiale è quello americano (IFPI, 2018), di cui sono facilmente reperibili i dati più dettagliati, perciò sarà questo l’oggetto della nostra analisi: i dati di cui disponiamo sono raccolti a partire dal 1973, anno in cui la Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) inizia a osservare le evoluzioni del marcato discografico americano non solo sottolineando il volume delle vendite complessivo, ma anche indicando attraverso quali formati la musica venga usufruita dai consumatori. Il grafico in figura 1 illustra nel dettaglio l’andamento del mercato discografico dal 1973 al 20181 (RIAA, 2019). In primo luogo, è evidente come l’evoluzione tecnologica abbia influito sul formato delle vendite: ogni categoria di prodotto viene periodicamente sostituita da un formato diverso, più efficiente rispetto al precedente, in un processo di continuo miglioramento tecnologico ed economico sia per l’imprenditore che per il consumatore. Questa tendenza è evidente osservando come, spostandosi verso destra sul grafico, ciclicamente la categoria di punta del mercato cambi, seguendo il ciclo di vita del prodotto. Possiamo suddividere la fascia temporale presa in considerazione in cinque sottogruppi significativi: 1. fino agli anni Ottanta c’è l’assoluto dominio del vinile, principalmente come LP ed EP (33 e 45 giri) e in minima parte come singolo (78 giri); 2. Successivamente è la cassetta a essere il prodotto di punta del mercato, indicativamente fino al biennio 1990-91; 3. Dagli inizi degli anni 1990, la novità del CD cresce in maniera esponenziale, tanto da quasi polverizzare gli altri formati di consumo musicale. Questo trend si mantiene fino al passaggio al nuovo millennio; 4. Dopo il raggiungimento del suo picco storico, la diffusione di servizi di download illegale (a cominciare da Napster) abbatte notevolmente le dimensioni del mercato discografico. Al fenomeno della pirateria si affianca la rivoluzione avviata dalla Apple con la totale smaterializzazione del disco fisico, grazie alla possibilità di acquisire online il prodotto in formato digitale a prezzi notevolmente inferiori rispetto al supporto materiale. 5. Nell’ultimo quinquennio si è registrata la progressiva affermazione
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