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Zoned out a Comprehensive Impact Evaluation of Mekong Economic Development Zones Acknowledgements

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Zoned out a Comprehensive Impact Evaluation of Mekong Economic Development Zones Acknowledgements ZONED OUT A COMPREHENSIVE IMPACT EVALUATION OF MEKONG ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ZONES ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Acknowledgements About the Authors The authors would like to thank the following individuals Coby Goldberg is an Analyst at C4ADS on the for their contributions to the report: Darathtey Din, Ryn Counterproliferation Cell, where he specializes in Jirenuwat, Aung Khant Kyaw, Chan Muyhong, Trang China’s technology strategy and defense industry. His Nguyen, and Michael Tatarski provided research and writing has been published in Foreign Policy, the Los investigative support. Charles Dunst, Simon Menet, Angeles Review of Books, and by the Center for a New Son Mai Pham, and Devin Thorne supported analysis American Security. He holds a B.A. in East Asian Studies and production. Anna Wheeler and Tingting Xiong from Princeton University. improved the report’s layout and design. Patrick Baine, Artsem Kananovich, Kyla Sweeney, and Anna Max Kearns is a Data Scientist at C4ADS on the Data Wheeler have developed the report’s interactive and Technology Cell. He received a B.A. in Biology website, which will launch in July, 2021. Last but not from the College of the Holy Cross and also holds an at all least, the following current and former C4ADS M.S. from Georgetown University in Mathematics and staff shaped the writing and project design: Marcel Statistics, with a focus on statistical learning. Angliviel de la Beaumelle, Irina Bukharin, Bridget Connelly, Thomas Ewing, Eva Hines, Faith Hornor, Ethan Henry Peyronnin is a Senior Analyst at C4ADS. He holds Krauss, and Cecile Neumeister. a B.A. in Environmental Studies from Carleton College and an M.A. in International Affairs with concentrations Legal Disclaimer in Development Economics and International Political Economy from the Fletcher School of Law and The mention of any individual, company, organization, Diplomacy at Tufts University. or other entity in this report does not imply the violation of any law or international agreement, and should not Ben Spevack is a Senior Analyst at C4ADS, where he be construed as such. The designations of geographical researches economic development zones in Mekong entities in this publication, and the presentation of the countries and manages Data & Analysis for the material, do not imply the expression of any opinion ROUTES Partnership. He holds a B.A. in International whatsoever on the part of C4ADS concerning the Relations from Tufts University and speaks French, legal status of any country, territory, or area, or of Russian, and Chinese. its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Sofia Vargas is a former Senior Analyst at C4ADS on the Organized Crime and Grand Corruption Our Tech Partners Cell, where she covered corruption networks in C4ADS is grateful to our technology partners whose public infrastructure projects. She holds a B.A. in software and systems are integral to the integrity and International Politics from Georgetown University’s quality of our research and analysis. School of Foreign Service. Cover Image Friendship Bridge at dusk, Mae Sot, Tak, Thailand © C4ADS 2021 ZONED OUT 2 CONTENTS CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 GEOPOLITICS 24 EMBEDDING GEOPOLITICS IN EDZ INTRODUCTION 5 ASSESSMENTS 25 CONTRACT TERMS 26 MALIGN FOREIGN ACTIVITIES 27 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 6 PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS 28 INTRODUCTION 7 BUILDING OUT MORE COMPLETE RESULTS 7 DATA PICTURES 28 FUTURE OF REMOTE SENSING DATA 9 KEY TAKEAWAYS 29 DISCUSSION 15 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT EVALUATION FRAMEWORK 16 DEEP DIVES 30 CHINA’S INVESTMENT IN CAMBODIA 30 ILLICIT ACTIVITY 17 EASTERN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR: CORRUPTION 18 BRIGHT LIGHTS, DIM EXTERNALITIES 36 ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE AND CONFLICT 19 AND EDZS 42 MONEY LAUNDERING 20 MYANMAR YATAI SHWE KOKKO DRUG AND WILDLIFE TRAFFICKING 21 SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE 50 USING PUBLIC DATA TO CHINESE PRIVATE SECURITY INVESTIGATE ILLICIT ACTIVITY 22 COMPANIES 54 CONCLUSION 59 ANNEX: METHODOLOGY 62 ZONED OUT 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report presents a study that applies publicly •1 Sihanoukville Special Economic Zone (SEZ) available information1 to assess approximately one (Cambodia) hundred foreign-invested economic development • Shwe Kokko (Myanmar) zones (EDZs) across the Mekong region.2 Analysis of 2 EDZ effects on three levels of evaluation—economic •3 Eastern Economic Corridor (Thailand) development, illicit activity,3 and geopolitics— • Transportation Infrastructure and EDZs in demonstrates that while the creation of an EDZ 4 Northwest Laos is typically followed by an increased pace of development, zones can also facilitate adverse •5 Chinese Private Security Companies (PSCs) in outcomes that undercut the benefits to economic Mekong EDZs growth. This study is organized around three analytical verticals: Based on this research, the authors find that: • Economic Development: The study measures •1 Economic development zones do not always nighttime luminosity in EDZs to create an objective precipitate development, and even when growth and scalable measurement to evaluate the is present, negative externalities can undercut the relative economic performance of zones. benefits. • Illicit Activity: The study uses various publicly •2 The limited data access around Mekong available reports to demonstrate that illicit actors EDZs hurts both host governments and local are exploiting many EDZs to conduct a variety of communities. illicit activities, including corruption, environmental • Collaboration between government, grassroots degradation, land conflict, drug trafficking, and 3 organizations, private-sector, and civil society wildlife trafficking. stakeholders will boost transparency and better • Geopolitics: The study offers a framework to match intentions to outcomes. evaluate the geopolitical impact of zones, including examples of zone attributes that To empower stakeholders to improve EDZ impacts, this increase the potential for the erosion of host report offers the following recommendations: government sovereignty and legitimacy. • Develop open, centralized repositories of information on all aspects of economic Across all sections, the study evaluates the data development zones. environment, presents workflows for leveraging publicly available information, and offers policy • Leverage emerging technologies to create recommendations for improving the data environment. passive or high-efficiency monitoring processes. • Convene cross-sector, interdisciplinary task The study also includes five deep dives examining forces to address negative impacts. topics that were chosen to illustrate a variety of different themes that emerged in the analysis. These deep dives are intended as separate, independent stories, not a collective grouping: ZONED OUT 4 INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION An economic development zone (also referred in the region.8 A 2015 report on economic zones in to as an “EDZ” or “zone”) is intended as a magnet, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) incubator, and springboard to prosperity. A successful characterized them as “cornerstone strategies for zone will attract capital, additional infrastructure, economic development in countries around the and expertise; cultivate commercial operations, world.”9 Increasing foreign investment is an explicit logistics networks, and human capital development; goal of the EDZs, and a substantial number of the and launch the surrounding area into a trajectory of zones in Mekong countries involve investment from growth and modernization. A zone’s success depends foreign governments and private companies.10 on its ability to attract investors through a combination of regulatory incentives, infrastructure projects, or However, EDZs can have an impact beyond capital public awareness campaigns, so EDZs are typically and infrastructure: neither the zones’ economies, their designed to streamline business activities. While some illicit activities, nor the host nations’ geopolitics exist in a zones objectively contribute to the economic growth vacuum. Without proper management, EDZs can serve of their host countries, GDP figures alone do not tell as staging grounds for multiple types of transnational the whole story. Indeed, zones can and often facilitate illicit activity and geopolitical machinations. Further adverse events and trends ranging from corruption4 complicating the situation is a paucity of accessible and environmental degradation5 to the subversion of data, leaving policymakers and observers alike a host nation’s sovereignty.6 struggling to draw informed conclusions on the effects of zones. While the data in this report is specific to the In order to develop a holistic understanding of an Mekong countries, the implications of these findings EDZ’s impact and make informed decisions regarding and the research methodology can be extrapolated EDZ creation and management, decision makers and to EDZs around the world. observers must evaluate a zone’s effect on the legal economy against its ramifications for illicit activity and To secure the legal economy, protect local geopolitics. A comprehensive framework is required. populations, and ensure the preservation of national sovereignty, stakeholders in government, All five countries in the Mekong region—Cambodia, civil society, and the private sector should adopt Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam, also referred a comprehensive approach to evaluating and to as “Mekong countries”—currently host EDZs.7 monitoring EDZ impact. Indeed, EDZs are becoming increasingly common ZONED
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