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DAILY SOFTS CURRENCY COMMENTARY Friday July 26, 2019

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DAILY SOFTS CURRENCY COMMENTARY Friday July 26, 2019 DAILY SOFTS CURRENCY COMMENTARY Friday July 26, 2019 DAILY COCOA COMMENTARY 07/26/19 Possible global deficit could long-term support September cocoa has sold off sharply this week after a 140-point rally last week, but it remains inside its month-long trading range. While the overall global demand outlook remains positive, the market may need to see a rebound in global risk sentiment to finish the week trading on an upbeat note. ECB President Draghi hinted at a rate cut yesterday, but he also said that the Euro zone outlook is getting "worse and worse", and this puts a negative spin on demand. The EU accounts for one-third of global cocoa grindings, with two of the world's top four grinding nations (Netherlands, Germany) and another four (France, Spain, Belgium, Italy) in the top 14. A rebound in the Eurocurrency from a 2-year low provided some mild support yesterday, but it was lower again overnight. A Reuters poll of industry players forecast cocoa prices to rise 2% from current levels by the end of this year. The poll also forecast that the upcoming 2019/20 season would show a global deficit of 80,000 tonnes. The International Cocoa Organization's current estimate calls for a 2018/19 surplus of 36,000 tonnes. TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS: Europe may be a source of demand anxiety, but if the stock market ends the week on a strong note, it could help cocoa regain its upside momentum. Look for support in September cocoa at 2390, with resistance at 2480 and 2494. NEW RECOMMENDATIONS: None. PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: Long September Cocoa 2500/2700 bull call spread from 48 with an objective of 69. Hit risk at 20.* COCOA TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: Note: Data is collected using the closing values of the previous session and calculations and analysis are run at the same time. Technical commentary is based solely on statistical indicators and does not necessarily correspond to any fundamental analysis that may appear elsewhere in this report. Data sources can and do produce bad ticks that can cause computation errors. Please verify before use. COCOA (SEP) 07/26/2019: The close under the 60-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend could be turning down. A crossover down in the daily stochastics is a bearish signal. Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are broken. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The swing indicator gave a moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st support number. The next downside target is now at 2394. The next area of resistance is around 2457 and 2487, while 1st support hits today at 2411 and below there at 2394. DAILY COFFEE COMMENTARY 07/26/19 Oversold and close to key support. September coffee inched lower late in the overnight session and came close to testing a key retracement level at 99.83. This follows a downside breakout this week and a 5-session losing streak. Ample near-term supplies could continue to weigh on prices, but the market is deeply oversold and could be susceptible to some short-covering going into the weekend. The Brazilian real rebounded from a 2-week low on Thursday, and that provided some measure of support to coffee prices, but the real was modestly lower overnight. Six sessions of lower highs and lower lows have kept the downtrend in the real intact, and this could continue to pressure coffee prices. Brazil is forecast to export more than 3 million bags of coffee this month. This is having far-reaching effects, as Vietnamese cash prices are lower in spite of their tight pre-harvest supply levels. Rabobank raised their price forecast for fourth quarter Arabica coffee to $1.10, up 4 cents from their June estimate off of damage from Brazil's early-July frost. Coffee stockpiles held in European ports increased to 706,223 tonnes, which was up 0.8% from April's month-end total. ICE exchange coffee stocks (86% of which are held in the European ports of Antwerp, Hamburg and Bremen) fell by 261 bags on Thursday. They remain on track for a fifth monthly decline over the past six months. TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS: While frost damage may have a limited impact on Brazil's crop, that crop has already gone through flowering issues last year and extended periods of dry weather earlier this year. Given what is likely to be a sizable decline in this season's Brazilian Arabica production from last year, coffee is once again approaching bargain-price levels. A key support level for September coffee comes in at 99.83, the 0.618 retracement of the move from the May 7th (contract) low and the July 5th high. Look for resistance at 103.50. NEW RECOMMENDATIONS: None. PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: None. COFFEE TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: Note: Data is collected using the closing values of the previous session and calculations and analysis are run at the same time. Technical commentary is based solely on statistical indicators and does not necessarily correspond to any fundamental analysis that may appear elsewhere in this report. Data sources can and do produce bad ticks that can cause computation errors. Please verify before use. COFFEE (SEP) 07/26/2019: Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside objective is now at 99.47. The next area of resistance is around 101.32 and 102.16, while 1st support hits today at 99.98 and below there at 99.47. DAILY COTTON COMMENTARY 07/26/19 Weaker despite China "allowing" some tariff-free US cotton News that China would allow some tariff-free US cotton into the country was followed by news that the Chinese government sold 10,043 tonnes (98.67% of total offer) at an auction of state reserves, and that seemed to undercut any optimism regarding exports to China. There had been reports that the some textile mills in China reportedly have been given permission to purchase a total 50,000 tons of US cotton. But after finding some support, the market sold off sharply late in the overnight session, taking out Thursday's lows in what appeared to be a rejection of the highs from earlier in the week. Despite the selloff, the market is still respecting the key weekly reversal off its contract lows last week, and it could still find support on hopes for progress in China/US trade talks next week. Thursday's weekly USDA Export Sales Report showed cotton net sales coming in at 163,000 bales for the current marketing year and 208,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 371,000 for the week ending July 18. New crop sales have reached 28.7% of the USDA forecast for the 2019/20 marketing year versus a 5 year average of 26.7%. While sales were strong, traders noted a lack of sales or shipments to China for the week. Certified deliverable stocks came in at 44,547 bales, down from 45,089 the previous session and from 60,410 earlier last week. TODAY'S MARKET IDEAS: Declining deliverable stocks, a record net short position from speculators and solid export sales news failed to support a further advance. If crop conditions remain strong, the market could face a surge higher in ending stocks this year. Close-in resistance for December cotton comes in at 65.00 and 65.79, with support at 63.16 and 62.80. Failure to hold support on a closing basis would leave 60.52 as the next downside target. NEW RECOMMENDATIONS: None. PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: None. COTTON TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: Note: Data is collected using the closing values of the previous session and calculations and analysis are run at the same time. Technical commentary is based solely on statistical indicators and does not necessarily correspond to any fundamental analysis that may appear elsewhere in this report. Data sources can and do produce bad ticks that can cause computation errors. Please verify before use. COTTON (DEC) 07/26/2019: Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The near-term upside target is at 64.96. The next area of resistance is around 64.54 and 64.96, while 1st support hits today at 63.84 and below there at 63.55. COTTON (MAR) 07/26/2019: Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The next upside target is 65.67. The next area of resistance is around 65.41 and 65.67, while 1st support hits today at 64.89 and below there at 64.62. DAILY SUGAR COMMENTARY 07/26/19 Weekly reversal setup could spark short covering today. October sugar was slightly lower overnight, possibly due to slight weakness in the Brazilian currency and some improvement in the weather outlook for India.
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