Strengthening Finance for the 7Th Five Year Plan and Sdgs in Bangladesh
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Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh Strengthening Finance for the 7th Five Year Plan and SDGs in Bangladesh FINDINGS FROM AN INDEPENDENT DEVELOPMENT FINANCE ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT FINAL REPORT Strengthening Finance for the 7th Five Year Plan and SDGs in Bangladesh FINDINGS FROM AN INDEPENDENT DEVELOPMENT FINANCE ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT Authors: This assessment was prepared by Liv Bjornestad (Team Leader), Jakir Hossain, Jitendra Sinha and Nelson Stratta, with inputs from Thomas Beloe and Karolien Casaer-Diez (UNDP) A note on data sources: All sources for data are referenced in footnotes. All dates are provided for these sources. Acknowledgements This Independent Development Finance Assessment was made possible by the leadership of the Economic Relations Division, Ministry of Finance. We would like to express gratitude as well to the Government Advisory Group which provided guidance to the consultants throughout the process. Technical guidance was also provided by the Asia Pacific Development Effectiveness Facility (AP-DEF), as well as by UNDP. Financial contributions by the governments of Australia and the UK are greatly appreciated, as are all the inputs provided by stakeholders and partners consulted during the process. Disclaimer The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the institutions to which they are affiliated, including the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), or the Government of Bangladesh or the United Nations or its Member States. Contents List of Acronyms 4 Foreword 7 Executive Summary 8 1. Background 18 1.1 Overview 18 1.2 Objectives of the DFA 20 2. Socioeconomic and Political Context 22 2.1 Socioeconomic Context 22 2.2 Economy 23 2.3 National Framework for Planning and Budgeting in Bangladesh 26 2.4 Public Financing of Development: the Planning and Budget Processes 27 2.5 Governance 31 3. Domestic Finance: Institutional and Policy Context Flow Analysis 33 3.1 Overview 33 3.2 Tax Revenues 33 3.3 Public Domestic Borrowing 36 3.4 Private Domestic Borrowing 40 3.5 Sovereign Wealth Funds 42 3.6 Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) 43 3.7 Inclusive Business Finance 47 3.8 Domestic Philanthropy and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) 49 3.9 Corporate Social Responsibility Linked to Development 52 3.10 Domestic Climate Change Finance 54 4. External Finance: Institutional and Policy Context Flow Analysis 58 4.1 Introduction 58 4.2 Official Development Assistance (ODA) 58 4.3 Vertical Funds 62 4.4 Public Borrowing from Capital Markets 64 4.5 Private Borrowing from Capital Markets 65 4.6 South-South Cooperation (SSC) 67 4.7 External Climate Change Finance 72 4.8 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) 74 4.9 Remittances 77 5. Conclusions and Recommendations 83 5.1 Reviewing the Financial Requirements of the 7th Five Year Plan 83 5.2 The Convenience of an Integrated Financial Strategy Approach 84 5.3 Potential Contributions of the Financial Flows Analysed 87 5.4 The Way Forward: Key Challenges and Main Recommendations 92 Annex A: Glossary 97 Annex B: Bibliography for Literature Survey 101 Annex C: Middle-Income Countries (MIC) versus Least Developed Countries (LDC) 105 Annex D: Bangladesh Achievements against MDG Targets 107 Annex E: DFA Advisory Committee for Bangladesh 109 Annex F: Key Challenges and Impacts of Key Flows and Areas for the DFA 110 Annex G: Key Recommendations for Bangladesh 2015–2020 112 List of Tables Table 1.1: Financial Flows 2005–2014 in millions of US$ 19 Table 2.1: Poverty Head-Count Rates (percentage) 22 Table 2.2: Sixth Five Year Plan Key Targets of the Macroeconomic Framework 22 Table 2.3: Structural Change in the Economy during the Sixth Five Year Plan (percentage of GDP) 24 Table 2.4: Financing of Seventh Five Year Plan Investment (FY2016 prices) 26 Table 3.1: Growth in Tax Revenue in Recent Years 33 Table 3.2: Comparing Bangladesh Tax/GDP to its Regional Partners 34 Table 3.3: Revenue Structure in the Seventh Five Year Plan Period (FY2016-FY2020) 35 Table 3.4: Major Components of Revenue under the Seventh Five Year Plan Period (FY2016-FY2020) 36 Table 3.5: Bangladesh: Public Domestic Debt at Year End of 2013 37 Table 3.6: Indicators of Banking Activities for Selected Countries (2013) 40 Table 3.7: Projects and Funds for INGOs in millions of US$ 50 Table 3.8: CSR Expenditures of Banks in millions of US$ 53 Table 3.9: Climate Expenditures in Bangladesh in millions of US$ (FY2009–2014) 56 Table 4.1: Forecasted Net ODA for the 7th Five Year Plan in millions of US$ 61 Table 4.2: Types of South-South Cooperation in Bangladesh 67 Table 4.3: Top 10 Countries with FDI Flow to Bangladesh from 2008–2014 (in millions of US$) 68 Table 4.4: FDI Inflows as a Percentage of GDP of Selected Countries and Regions 75 Table 4.5: Overseas Employment and Remittances 78 Table 4.6: Budget Allocations for the MoEWOE (in crore Taka) 80 Table 5.1: Financing of the Seventh Five Year Plan Investment (FY2016 prices) 83 Table 5.2: Key Recommendations for Bangladesh 2015–2020 94 List of Figures Figure 1.1: Development Finance Flows in millions of US$ 19 Figure 2.1: Growth and Per Capita GDP 23 Figure 2.2: Seventh Five Year Plan Investment Requirements (as percentage of GDP) 27 Figure 2.3: Simplified Integration of Planning and Budget Process 28 Figure 3.1: Breakdown of Sources of Revenue 2005–2015 in billions of Taka 34 Figure 3.2: Share of Tax and Non-tax Revenue in Total Taxes 2005–2015 35 Figure 3.3: Interest Payments on Debt as a Share of GNI 38 Figure 3.4: Breakdown of Public Borrowing in billions of Taka 38 Figure 3.5: Total Debt Domestic and External in billions of Taka and Debt Share of GNI, 2005–2015 39 Figure 3.6: Indicators of Growth of Banking Activities 40 Figure 3.7. Growth of Private Banking, 2001–2012 41 Figure 3.8: Distribution of Released Funds to NGOs according to 6th FYP priorities (in millions of US$) 51 Figure 4.1: Breakdown of Aid Commitments by Sector 2000–2014 59 Figure 4.2: Disbursements as a Share of ODA Commitments 2000–2014 60 Figure 4.3: Loans versus Grants (in millions of US$) 60 Figure 4.4: Multilateral versus Bilateral Share of ODA 60 Figure 4.5: GAVI Operations in Bangladesh 62 Figure 4.6: Domestic Debt versus External Debt 64 Figure 4.7: Private Sector Loans in millions of Taka, 2005–2014 67 Figure 4.8: Foreign Direct Investment from the Global South 69 Figure 4.9: Total Foreign Direct Investment Inflows 2004–2015 74 Figure 4.10: Total Remittances 2000–2015 78 INDEPENDENT DEVELOPMENT FINANCE ASSESSMENT BANGLADESH 4 List of Acronyms ADB Asian Development Bank ADP Annual Development Programme AF Adaptation Fund BCCRF Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund BCCSAP Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan BCCTF Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund BIFFL Bangladesh Infrastructure Finance Fund Limited BOI Board of Investment CCM Country Coordination Mechanism (of GFATM) CFF Climate Fiscal Framework CIF Climate Investment Fund CPEIR Climate Public Expenditure and Institutional Review CSR Corporate Social Responsibility DAC Development Assistance Committee (OECD) DFA Development Finance and Aid Assessment DP Development Partner EEP External Economic Policy EPZ Export Pricing Zone ERD Economic Relations Division FDI Foreign Direct Investment GAVI Global Alliance for Vaccine and Immunization GCF Green Climate Fund GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility GFATM Global Fund for Aids, Tuberculosis and Malaria HDI Human Development Index IBAS Integrated Budget and Accounting System STRENGTHENING FINANCE FOR THE 7TH FIVE YEAR PLAN 5 ICC Inter-Agency Coordination Committee ICCTF Indonesia Climate Change Trust Fund IDA International Development Association IFC International Finance Corporation INFS Integrated National Financing Strategy INGO International Non-governmental Organization JEC Joint Economic Commission LDC Least Developed Country LDCF Least Developed Countries Fund LMIC Lower Middle Income Country MDG Millennium Development Goal MIE Multilateral Implementing Entity MoEF Ministry of Environment and Forestry MRA Microcredit Regulatory Authority MSME Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises MTBF Medium Term Budget Framework MTDS Medium Term Debt Strategy MTSBP Medium Term Strategy and Business Plan NBFI Non-Bank Financial Institution NBR National Board of Revenue NGO Non-governmental Organization NIE National Implementing Entity NSD National Savings Directorate ODA Official Development Assistance OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PEFA Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability PKB Probasi Kallyan Bank PPCR Pilot Programme of Climate Resilience PPP Public-Private Partnership INDEPENDENT DEVELOPMENT FINANCE ASSESSMENT BANGLADESH 6 RIE Regional Implementing Entity RMG Readymade Garments SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SDG Sustainable Development Goal SEZ Special Economic Zone SME Small and Medium Enterprise SSC South-South Cooperation SSTC South-South and Triangular Cooperation SWF Sovereign Wealth Fund TCS Technical Cooperation Scheme TOSSD Total Official Support for Sustainable Development UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme VAT Value-added Tax WIPO World Intellectual Property Organization WRI World Resources Institute STRENGTHENING FINANCE FOR THE 7TH FIVE YEAR PLAN 7 Foreword This Independent Development Finance Assessment (DFA), commissioned by the Economic Relations Division, and supported by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Asia Pacific Development Effectiveness Facility provides Bangladesh with a mapping of financing flows for development. The assessment can be a useful means to pursue our development priorities as articulated in Bangladesh’s 7th Five Year Plan. It is the first assessment of its kind in Bangladesh – covering all development finance flows including private and public as well as external and domestic resources. The unique value of the DFA is that not only delineates the contours of development financing landscape but assesses the strengths and weaknesses of the policy and institutional architecture to facilitate aligning finance with results.