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The Economy of Tomorrow How to Produce Socially Just, Sustainable and Green Dynamic Growth for a Good Society Case Study of Bangladesh

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The Economy of Tomorrow How to Produce Socially Just, Sustainable and Green Dynamic Growth for a Good Society Case Study of Bangladesh Economy of Tomorrow Socially Just, Sustainable and Dynamic Growth for a Good Society: A Case Study of Bangladesh ECONOMY OF TOMORROW The Economy of Tomorrow How to Produce Socially Just, Sustainable and Green Dynamic Growth for a Good Society Case Study of Bangladesh Mustafizur Rahman, Towfiqul Islam Khan, Muhammad Al Amin March 2014 . Bangladesh has been able to raise its GDP growth rate by at least one percent for each of the past three decades. The challenge now is to accelerate economic growth to eight to ten percent over the foreseeable future. In order to do so, the drivers of growth need to be better prioritized. Bangladesh should strategically capitalize on the advantages of its growing domestic market, accelerate its efforts to bring about structural change in the economy, put the needed infrastructure in place, better develop human capabilities, create a conducive environment for job creating businesses, and strengthen institutional, legal and administrative capacities. Bangladesh has achieved remarkable progress in reducing poverty by approximately two percent each year during the 2000s. However, extreme poverty remains persistent and income and wealth inequality have become major concerns. Strengthening the capacities of marginalized people through quality education, as well as the provision of good health services and measures to promote income earning capacity of people still living in poverty need to be prioritized. The increasingly open economy of Bangladesh must be prepared to take advantage of the opportunities emerging in regional and global markets through export and market diversification, moving up the value chain by raising labor and capital productivity, creating decent jobs and ensuring labor rights and workplace safety. For the future growth of Bangladesh to be dynamic and green, the utilization of natural resources in an environmentally sustainable manner, addressing the challenges arising from climate change, limiting ecosystem degradation, the conservation of biodiversity, enhancement of afforestation and integrated coastal zone management, and addressing environmental health problems needs to be placed high on the country’s policy agenda. Economy of Tomorrow Socially Just, Sustainable and Dynamic Growth for a Good Society: A Case Study of Bangladesh Table of Contents 1. General Macroeconomic Overview 02 1.1 Past development of the key macroeconomic indicators 02 1.2 Present macroeconomic problems 07 1.3 Likely future development 10 2. Income Distribution, Consumption Demand and Sustainable Development 12 2.1 Past development of income distribution 12 2.2 Present debate about policies to change income distribution 14 2.3 Likely future development 17 3. World Market Strategy and Protection From External Shocks 18 3.1 Past integration into the world market 18 3.2 Present debate about the integration in the world market 20 3.3 Likely future development 21 4. Green New Deal and Ecological Problems 24 4.1 Overview about ecological problems 24 4.2 Present debate to solve ecological problems 26 4.3 Strategy and Coherence of Industrial Policies in General 28 4.4 Likely future development 29 5. General Evaluation 30 6. References 37 7. Acronyms 42 Economy of Tomorrow Socially Just, Sustainable and Dynamic Growth for a Good Society: A Case Study of Bangladesh 1. General Macroeconomic Overview the decade of stagnation (Sobhan 1991). Economic growth increased from an average 1.1 Past development of the key 3.7 per cent during the 1980s1 to 4.8 per cent macroeconomic indicators in the 1990s (Figure 1). The acceleration continued in the 2000s, and eventually For a developing country, economic crossed the threshold of 6 percent in FY2004. development hinges critically on its ability to Since then, economic growth has remained ensure accelerated growth with opportunities slightly over 6 per cent, with FY2009 being an for decent employment and gainful income outlier year, when the economic performance for its citizens. It is broadly accepted that a of most developing and developed economies fast pace of economic growth is a necessary was adversely affected in the face of the driver for achieving sustained economic global economic and financial crises. development of developing countries (Bhattacharya and Khan 2008; Rodrick 2013). Figure 1: GDP Growth Concurrently, there is however a growing 6.7 acceptance, backed up by ample empirical 6.2 5.8 6.0 evidence, that economic growth alone cannot 4.8 achieve the desired objective of a just and 3.7 equitable society. Indeed, the pattern of cent Per growth and nature of structural changes are keys to attaining growth with equitable and distributive justice (Bhattacharya and Khan 1980s 1990s 2000s 2011 2012 2013 2013). While recognizing economic growth as a pre-condition for socioeconomic Source: Estimated from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics development, Rodrick (2013) emphasized the (BBS) data. critical role of structural transformation in developing economies in the form of the 1.1.2 Per Capita Income emergence and expansion of sectors with higher productivity and through the A steady economic growth, coupled with movement of labor from low-productive restrained population growth, made it traditional sectors to higher productive possible for Bangladesh to post a faster modern sectors. Indeed, the process of growth in per capita income since FY1990. In structural transformation in countries like FY2013, per capita income (GNI) stood at USD Bangladesh is largely about developing 923.2 It was less than USD 100 at the time of productive capacities which will require Bangladesh’s independence in 1971. It is to be higher capital accumulation, from both noted here that larger inflow of remittances domestic and foreign sources (Bhattacharya from workers abroad has allowed Bangladesh and Khan 2013). to have a higher per capita income compared to its per capita GDP. Particularly during the 1.1.1 Economic Growth last decade the large inflows of foreign remittances helped Bangladesh attain an From an economic growth perspective, accelerated pace of per capita income Bangladesh has been performing moderately growth. well, particularly since the 1990s. For Bangladesh, the 1980s is often considered as 1The growth figures are measured per fiscal year (FY). 2According to new estimates (base year 2005-06), the The fiscal year in Bangladesh covers a period from July per capita national income in Bangladesh stood at USD to June next. For example, FY1980 refers a period of July 1,044. 1979 to June 1980. 2 Economy of Tomorrow Socially Just, Sustainable and Dynamic Growth for a Good Society: A Case Study of Bangladesh 1.1.3 Composition of the Economy percent of GDP in FY1985 to 7.2 percent of GDP in FY1990. Private investment picked up As regards the sectoral composition of the from 10.3 percent of the GDP in FY1991 to economy, Bangladesh experienced a steady 15.8 percent in FY2001, and 19 percent in shift in the share of major sectors in its GDP. FY2010. Public investment as a share of GDP A move away from agriculture and favoring on the other hand declined from the peak of the industrial sector took place over the last 7.4 percent in FY2000 to 5 percent in FY2010. three decades. In FY1980, the share of During the last three years, public investment agriculture in the GDP was 32.3 percent, increased at a faster pace and reached 7.9 which went down to 28.7 percent in FY1990, percent in FY2013. Domestic savings also 24.6 percent in FY2000, and 18.1 percent in increased from 12.5 percent of GDP in FY1981 FY2013 (Figure 2). The reduced share of the to 20.1 percent in FY2010, thanks to the agriculture sector was mostly picked up by continuous decline in the dependency ratio the industrial sector. Its share increased from (World Bank 2012). However, over the last 16.6 percent in FY1980 to 20.2 percent in three years, domestic savings have decreased FY1990, 24.7 percent in FY2000, and 30.9 due to a higher inflationary trend and reached percent in FY2010. On an average, the only 19.3 percent in FY2013. National savings industrial sector gained almost 4 percentage as a percentage of GDP also surged from 17.8 points as a share of GDP over each decade. percent in FY1981 to 22.4 percent in FY2001 Within the industrial sector, the growth of the and to 29.5 percent in FY2013. A significant manufacturing sub-sector was relatively rise in national savings can be attributed to higher, thanks to the high growth rates the rising inflow of foreign remittances. Over posted by the export-oriented manufacturing the last three decades, both exports and sector, particularly the readymade garments imports increased gradually increased as a (RMG) sub-sector. The share of the share of GDP. manufacturing sector posted a rise from 10.8 percent in FY1980 to 12 percent in FY1990, Figure 2: Sectoral Shares in GDP 14.8 percent in FY2000, and 18.9 percent in FY2013. The service sector continues to 100 remain the single largest contributor to the 90 80 GDP. At the same time, the relative share of 70 the services sector has been rather steady 60 over these same years – about 48.4 percent in 50 40 FY1980 and 47.6 percent in FY2013. cent Per 30 20 On the expenditure side, consumption 10 0 remained the largest contributor to the GDP with the share of about 87.1 percent in FY80 FY81 FY82 FY83 FY84 FY85 FY86 FY87 FY88 FY89 FY90 FY91 FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 Agriculture Industry Services FY1991 and 80.8 percent in FY2013. Investment or gross capital formation as a Source: Estimated from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics share of GDP increased from 17.6 percent in (BBS) data.
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