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Expert Report of Ambassador Robert Stephen Ford Case 1:16-cv-01423-ABJ Document 42-16 Filed 03/22/18 Page 1 of 158 UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CATHLEEN COLVIN et al., Civil No. 1:16-cv-01423 (ABJ) Plaintiffs, v. SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC, Defendant. EXPERT REPORT OF AMBASSADOR ROBERT STEPHEN FORD Case 1:16-cv-01423-ABJ Document 42-16 Filed 03/22/18 Page 2 of 158 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS .............................................................................................................i I. Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 1 a. Qualifications ............................................................................................................... 1 b. Instructions ................................................................................................................... 2 c. Summary of Opinions ................................................................................................... 3 d. Basis for Expertise ........................................................................................................ 3 II. The Assad Regime’s Origins and Means of Maintaining Authority and Control ................. 4 a. Historical Background .................................................................................................. 5 b. Power Through Control ................................................................................................ 7 i. The Mukhabarat ..................................................................................................... 8 ii. Syrian Armed Forces .............................................................................................. 9 iii. The Shabiha .......................................................................................................... 10 iv. The Assad Regime’s Political Control ................................................................... 11 c. Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 13 III. The Assad Regime’s Response to the March 2011 Anti-Government Uprising in Syria .... 13 a. Outbreak of the Arab Spring ....................................................................................... 13 b. The Arab Spring Arrives in Syria ................................................................................ 14 c. The Rise of an Organized Opposition ......................................................................... 17 d. The Armed Opposition ............................................................................................... 19 e. The Assad Regime’s Crackdown ................................................................................ 19 f. Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 23 IV. The Assad Regime’s Efforts to Control the Narrative ....................................................... 24 a. The Regime’s False Narrative ..................................................................................... 24 b. Methods of Controlling the Narrative.......................................................................... 28 i. Promoting the False Narrative ............................................................................... 28 1. Disseminating Propaganda and Misinformation............................................... 29 2. Sectarianizing the Conflict .............................................................................. 30 ii. Silencing Contrary Narratives ............................................................................... 31 1. Formal Limits on Reporting ............................................................................ 32 2. Limits on Access to Information ..................................................................... 33 i Case 1:16-cv-01423-ABJ Document 42-16 Filed 03/22/18 Page 3 of 158 3. Persecution and Repression of the Independent Media .................................... 34 4. Restrictions on Diplomatic Staff’s Access to Information ................................ 37 c. International Condemnation ........................................................................................ 38 d. Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 39 APPENDIX A: CURRICULUM VITAE OF AMBASSADOR ROBERT STEPHEN FORD ... 41 APPENDIX B: INDEX OF MATERIALS CITED IN EXPERT REPORT OF AMBASSADOR ROBERT STEPHEN FORD ................................................................. 46 ii Case 1:16-cv-01423-ABJ Document 42-16 Filed 03/22/18 Page 4 of 158 I, Robert Stephen Ford, hereby declare pursuant to 28 U.S.C. § 1746 as follows: I. Introduction 1. I am the former Ambassador of the United States to the Syrian Arab Republic (“Syria”) and currently a Kissinger Fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs. I have been asked by Plaintiffs in this litigation to provide an expert opinion on a number of topics concerning the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (the “Assad Regime” or “Regime”) and its governance in Syria following the March 2011 anti-government uprising. I understand that my opinion will serve as context for the conditions that existed in Syria at the time of Marie Colvin’s death on February 22, 2012. I reserve the right to amend and/or supplement the analysis and conclusions contained in this report. My qualifications, instructions, summary of opinions, and basis for expertise are set forth in greater detail below. a. Qualifications 2. This Report is informed by my academic background, my three-decade-long career as a Foreign Service Officer, and the time I spent living in the Middle East and North Africa, including as the U.S. Ambassador to Syria. Collectively, and as detailed further below, these experiences qualify me to opine on the political, social, and cultural landscape within Syria and the surrounding region. 3. I received my Bachelor of Arts in International Relations from Johns Hopkins University in 1980. In 1983, I obtained a Master of Arts in International Studies from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. I then moved to Cairo, Egypt, where I studied Arabic at the American University of Cairo and subsequently served as a member of the U.S. Peace Corps in Morocco. I joined the U.S. Foreign Service in 1986 as an Economic and Consular Officer in Turkey. I then spent the next 20 years in various diplomatic roles at U.S. Embassies in Bahrain, Iraq, Egypt, Turkey, and Cameroon. I served as the U.S. Ambassador to 1 Case 1:16-cv-01423-ABJ Document 42-16 Filed 03/22/18 Page 5 of 158 Algeria from 2006 to 2008 before serving as the Deputy U.S. Ambassador to Iraq from 2008 to 2010. 4. In 2011, I was appointed U.S. Ambassador to Syria and remained in this role until I left the Foreign Service in 2014. As Ambassador, I was based in Damascus for an extended period from shortly after my recess appointment in December 2010 until the U.S. government closed the Embassy in February 2012. From 2012 to 2014, I remained the U.S. Ambassador to Syria, but was based in Washington D.C., where I maintained an office in the State Department’s Front Office. I ultimately left the State Department in April 2014. Since July 2014, I have been a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based think-tank. In 2015, I became a Kissinger Fellow at Yale University. 5. Attached as Appendix A is my curriculum vitae, which contains additional details about my background, including a list of my publications from the last ten years. I have never previously testified as an expert witness. b. Instructions 6. Plaintiffs have requested that I opine on the following three topics: i. The origins of the Assad Regime’s power and the means by which it maintains its authority and control; ii. The nature and context of the Assad Regime’s response to the March 2011 anti-government uprising in Syria; and iii. The Assad Regime’s efforts to control the narrative of the conflict that unfolded in Syria after the outbreak of protests in March 2011. 7. I am not being compensated for my work as an expert witness in this case, but will be reimbursed for reasonable travel and out-of-pocket expenses incurred while fulfilling my role as an expert. 2 Case 1:16-cv-01423-ABJ Document 42-16 Filed 03/22/18 Page 6 of 158 c. Summary of Opinions 8. My conclusions on the three topics I was asked to address are as follows: i. The Assad Regime’s Origins and Means of Maintaining Authority and Control: Since assuming power, the Assad Regime has ruled Syria through an extensive and highly centralized military, security, and intelligence system backed by informal networks of supporters. In Section II of this Report, I provide a brief historical account of the Assad family’s assent to power. I also describe how the Assad Regime under President Bashar al-Assad has employed the intelligence agencies, military, and paramilitary forces to exert control over the country and destroy threats to its rule. Finally, I explain how the Assad Regime maintains its authority and control through the use of domestic and foreign alliances and kinship networks. ii. The Assad Regime’s Response to the March 2011 Anti-Government Uprising in Syria: President Assad responded to the outbreak of protests in March 2011 by instituting a violent crackdown against the civil opposition through mobilization of
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