Liberal Order in a Post-Western World Trine Flockhart Charles A. Kupchan Christina Lin Bartlomiej E. Nowak Patrick W. Quirk Lanxin Xiang © 2014 Transatlantic Academy. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Transatlantic Academy. Please direct inquiries to: Transatlantic Academy 1744 R Street, NW Washington, DC 20009 T 1 202 745 3886 F 1 202 265 1662 E [email protected] This publication can be downloaded for free at www.transatlanticacademy.org. About the Transatlantic Academy The Transatlantic Academy is a research institution devoted to creating common approaches to the long-term challenges facing Europe and North America. The Academy does this by each year bringing together scholars, policy experts, and authors from both sides of the Atlantic and from different disci- plinary perspectives to research and analyze a distinct policy theme of transatlantic interest. The Academy was created in 2007 as a partnership between the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) and the ZEIT-Stiftung Ebelin und Gerd Bucerius. The Robert Bosch Stiftung and the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation joined as full partners beginning in 2008, and the Fritz Thyssen Stiftung joined as a full partner in 2011. The Joachim Herz Stiftung joined in providing additional support in 2011, as did the Aurea Foundation and the Hungary Initiatives Foundation in 2013. On the cover: Dubai in the clouds at sunrise. © Nicole Luettecke/Corbis Liberal Order in a Post-Western World Trine Flockhart Charles A. Kupchan Christina Lin Bartlomiej E. Nowak Patrick W. Quirk Lanxin Xiang May 2014 Table of Contents From the Executive Director ............................................................................................................................ v Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................................................... vii Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................... ix Chapter 1 — Reordering Order: Global Change and the Need for a New Normative Consensus — Charles A. Kupchan ...................................................................................1 Chapter 2 — Economic Governance for a Diffusing Global Order — Bartlomiej E. Nowak .................. 13 Back to the Future: The Reordering of the Global Monetary Order — Joseph Quinlan .....................22 Chapter 3 — The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP): From Global to Regional Multilateralism — Thomas Straubhaar ............................................................ 25 The Eurozone Crisis and Europe’s South — Yannos Papantoniou .....................................................36 Chapter 4 — Calibrating U.S. and European Development Aid for the Reshaping World Order — Patrick W. Quirk ......................................................................................... 39 Turkey and the Western Liberal Order — Nathalie Tocci .....................................................................53 Chapter 5 — Beyond U.S. Hegemony: The Future of a Liberal Order of the Internet — Annegret Bendiek ..................................................................................................................57 Chapter 6 — Brazil and the Liberal Order in the 21st Century — Bernardo Sorj ....................................71 Chapter 7 — India in the Liberal Order — Sumit Ganguly .......................................................................... 83 Chapter 8 — South Africa and Nigeria in the Liberal International Order — Gilbert M. Khadiagala ..................................................................................................................... 95 Chapter 9 — China and the International “Liberal” (Western) Order — Lanxin Xiang ......................... 107 Chapter 10 — Cooperative Security with China and the Post-Arab Spring Mediterranean Security Architecture — Christina Lin .............................................................................121 The Middle East and the Liberal Order — Michael Bell .....................................................................134 Chapter 11 — Order through Partnerships: Sustaining Liberal Order in a Post-Western World — Trine Flockhart ...................................................................................................137 The D-10 — Ash Jain ............................................................................................................................150 Chapter 12 — Managing a Polycentric World ...........................................................................................153 About the Authors ........................................................................................................................................167 Liberal Order in a Post-Western World iii From the Executive Director ver the past six years, fellows at the academic fellows, and the collaborative portions and Transatlantic Academy have examined a most of the chapters were authored by them. It is Onumber of themes central to the transatlantic informed by contributions and perspectives of the relationship, including immigration, Turkey’s new Academy’s Bosch Public Policy Fellows — Yannos foreign policy, the rise of China, the growing global Papantoniou, Ash Jain, Bernardo Sorj, and Annegret competition for natural resources, and the future Bendiek — who were in residence at the Academy of the Western liberal order. Last year, Academy for shorter periods. The insights of three of our fellows examined the future of the liberal order in its non-resident fellows, Thomas Straubhaar, Klaus more domestic sense. The Democratic Disconnect: Scharioth, and Nathalie Tocci, were also helpful. Citizenship and Accountability in the Transatlantic The fellows engaged in an intensive collaborative Community provided a description and assessment research environment in which they presented their of the new challenges, dangers, and opportunities work and critiqued the work of their colleagues. facing Western democracies as they try to balance They interacted with a wide range of experts and a liberal order with a democratic one. This year’s policymakers in the United States, Canada, and group looked at the future of the liberal order at Europe as they shaped the research for this report. the international level and how the transatlantic Special thanks to Ted Reinert, the Academy’s community can respond to the rise of non-Western program officer, who oversaw the project and did a powers. great deal of its editing, and to Nicholas Siegel, who helped shape it in its initial stages. The international liberal order that emerged from the ashes of World War II was the creation of the The Academy would like to acknowledge the United States and Britain and later also continental support of its donors in making this study and the Western Europe. This began with the founding of broader Academy possible. It was thanks to their the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and support that the fellows were able to spend nine United Nations in 1944 and 1945, and deepened months in Washington working in collaboration with the creation of NATO and the organization that on this theme, in numerous workshops and eventually became the European Union. This order is discussions with academics, policy analysts, now coming into question with the rise of a number business people, journalists, and government of non-Western powers, most notably China, but officials, and to participate in study trips to also India, Brazil, South Africa, and to some extent Brussels and London. A special thanks goes to our Russia. Others like Turkey, South Korea, Nigeria, and colleagues at the Munk School at the University of Indonesia are also likely to have a significant impact Toronto for their critiques and suggestions as the on the emerging international system of the 21st manuscript was developed. As was the case with the century. Some of these countries share liberal norms previous reports, we hope this report helps bridge while others clearly do not. The issue addressed in the Atlantic policy and academic communities, and Liberal Order in a Post-Western World is the ways makes a contribution to the transatlantic dialogue transatlantic nations can maintain and extend the on the nature and implications of these substantial liberal order they have created while at the same time challenges confronting the liberal order. shaping a rules-based system with those who do not share liberal values. This report represents the collective efforts of the Stephen F. Szabo sixth group of Transatlantic Academy fellows. Executive Director It is the product of the research of the full-time The Transatlantic Academy Liberal Order in a Post-Western World v Acknowledgements hen arriving in Washington in the late Annegret Bendiek, Bernardo Sorj, Ash Jain, Klaus summer of 2013 to study “The Future Scharioth, Nathalie Tocci, Yannos Papantoniou, W of the International Liberal Order,” few Thomas Straubhaar, and Tamás Fellegi. We also owe of us had imagined that Russia would play more our gratitude to Sumit Ganguly, Gilbert Khadiagala, than a marginal role in our discussions, and we Joseph Quinlan, and Michael Bell, who provided thought that “the future” was some years ahead. the additional expertise and contributed chapters Yet as the events