MELBOURNE 4.0 REPORT THE NEXT INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION FROM THE CHAIR AND CEO

1ST INDUSTRIAL Steam, water, REVOLUTION mechanical production 1780s

2ND INDUSTRIAL Electricity, REVOLUTION division of labour, mass production 1870s

3RD INDUSTRIAL Electronics, IT, REVOLUTION automated production 1960s

4TH INDUSTRIAL Cyber-physical systems REVOLUTION

Melbourne is one of the best places in changes will be compounded by fragility in We’re fortunate to draw on your collective Today the world to live, work and do business. geopolitics, in our natural environment, and wisdom to shape civic discussion and in the global business landscape. advocate for policy outcomes to make sure One of the reasons we’re in this enviable that no Melburnian is left behind. position is that a group of passionate Against this background of change which Melburnians created the Committee for will shape our economy, the Committee We look forward to continuing to work Melbourne 30 years ago with one purpose: established the Melbourne 4.0 Taskforce. with you as Melbourne navigates these to shape a better future for our city. Harnessing the knowledge and insight of uncharted waters to retain our mantle as a our diverse membership base, the Taskforce city of international significance. Today, our appeal as a leading international has formed a credible policy agenda for city is being challenged – this time by the our city to prepare for the challenges and “We stand on the brink of a technological revolution that will profound changes known as the Fourth opportunities facing our future economy and Industrial Revolution. The Revolution marks society. fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and relate to one another. the next period in humanity’s progress, which will be characterised by a fusion of We’d like to thank everyone involved in the Scott Tanner Martine Letts In its scale, scope, and complexity, the transformation will be unlike our physical, digital and biological worlds. Taskforce. Your knowledge and expertise Chair CEO anything humankind has experienced before…It is disrupting almost has been invaluable in forming the policy People, organisations and sectors will options that will underpin the Committee’s every industry in every country…And the breadth and depth of these need to adapt to survive, and governments agenda for years to come. will need to move quickly to productively changes herald the transformation of entire systems of production, regulate the technologies behind these Learning how Melbourne can benefit from changes. the Fourth Industrial Revolution, while management, and governance. We do not yet know just how it will addressing its challenges, is the greatest unfold, but one thing is clear: the response to it must be integrated and This next period in our evolution will bring strategic question facing our city. We need enormous opportunity – but it will also to be bold, ambitious and clear in our vision comprehensive, involving all stakeholders of the global polity, from the disrupt employment markets, our economy, for Melbourne if we’re to make the most of and society at large. The unprecedented public and private sectors to academia and civil society.” our advantages. — Professor Klaus Schwab, Founder & Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum

2 3 ABOUT THE COMMITTEE FOR MELBOURNE

The Committee for Melbourne is an To ensure Melbourne can continue to apolitical, not-for-profit, member-based thrive and remain a city of international organisation that brings together over 120 significance as we experience the organisations from Greater Melbourne’s challenges and opportunities of the business, academic and community Fourth Industrial Revolution, you can sectors, which share a common vision get involved in a range of our Melbourne to make Melbourne a better place 4.0 workshops and forums. to live, work and do business. For more information contact us via As an independent organisation, we [email protected] or (03) 9650 8800. represent no single interest group or political position, but seek to challenge To keep up-to-date with our activities, conventional thinking and to develop membership and our city, make sure you innovative ideas to continue to enhance sign up to our fortnightly eNewsletter, the our position as an economically prosperous Committee Communiqué, via melbourne. and highly liveable global city. org.au/enewsletter/enewsletter-sign-up

The Committee for Melbourne encourages its member organisations and their representatives to become involved with the Committee’s activities to shape a better future for Melbourne. 1 The starting point 2 What is scenario planning? 3 The Taskforce process 4 The scenarios 5 Melbourne’s Strategic Needs 6 Our time starts now 7 Detailed scenarios 8 Acknowledgements 9 Bibliography

This Committee for Melbourne publication is copyright © Reproduction, in whole or in part, is not permitted without permission of the Committee for Melbourne. The information contained within the report is, to the best of the Committee for Melbourne’s knowledge, up to date, true and accurate, and all conclusions made have been based on the information contained within this report. 5

5 1 THE STARTING POINT 2 WHAT IS SCENARIO PLANNING?

“We always overestimate the change that will occur “He who predicts the future lies, in the next two years and underestimate the change even if he tells the truth.”— Arab proverb that will occur in the next ten. Don’t let yourself be lulled into inaction.”— Bill Gates, Co-founder, Microsoft

Thirty years ago, it was clear that September 11, Amazon.com, WikiLeaks, the Melbourne was losing its stature as the Global Financial Crisis, the iPhone, the Arab economic capital of Australia. Often 57 6 5,000 referred to as a rust belt, Melbourne Spring, the Fukushima nuclear disaster, Facebook, and Victoria were in decline with the Australia’s position Melbourne’s ranking Annual unmet demand private and public sectors fragmented, in global internet among the most for Australian computer Brexit, President Trump… These are just some and becoming insular. Melburnians were speed rankings. expensive housing science graduates. emigrating in their thousands. markets on the of the hard-to-predict momentous events and globe. On this burning platform, the Committee developments that have taken place since the turn for Melbourne was established to help Melbourne regain its footing and become of the millennium seventeen years ago. a prosperous and globally relevant city. Today, Melbourne is in very different shape from 30 years ago. Having been 28 53 90 The world today looks very different from a method that uses as a starting point, the voted ‘The World’s Most Liveable City’ how you might have imagined it only a few uncertainty in the external environment six years in a row, we could be forgiven Australia’s position in Australia’s Australia’s position years ago. For example, more than half of that a business or city has little to no for thinking that we are doing all right. Year 4 mathematics position in global in global ICT the companies that were in the Fortune 500 influence over, but which determines the ranking out of 49 high-tech export services export in the year 2000 have since disappeared circumstances in which it will have to However, people and organisations are countries (fall of 10 rankings. rankings. due to digital disruption. In such a rapidly operate and the challenges it will face. now starting to realise that perhaps places since 2012). changing environment, all of us – including the greatest challenge we face is the city we live in – are required to progress Scenarios do not describe just one future, complacency. A few observations confirm and develop in concert with the surrounding but rather a range of plausible futures that our slipping standards, particularly in the % % BILLION environment. By having a structured illuminate all the corners of the ‘playing context of a future that potentially sees conversation about this through the use field’ in which our city will need to operate profound (digital) disruption and a shifting of scenario planning, patterns emerge and compete. A good set of scenarios will geopolitical landscape. 50 66 $9 which help us to develop new and credible force us to critically assess our conscious and unconscious biases and help prevent us Drop in the number Expected annual economic insights. from being blindsided. of Australian students costs, by 2031, arising from First developed by the US Air Force after studying IT courses delays on Melbourne’s World War II as a method for military Despite not being predictions of the future, over the last decade. major roads (triple current planning, Royal Dutch Shell adopted scenarios are particularly useful for having levels) unless there is scenario planning to successfully navigate an informed dialogue about it. They provide appropriate investment to AND the 1973 oil crisis, allowing its spectacular structure in uncertainty, help us understand reduce traffic congestion. rise from being one of the weaker how different planning assumptions may ‘Seven Sisters’ (the seven largest global play out over time, and thereby support oil companies) to becoming one of its decision makers in formulating robust long- MILLION % strongest. term strategies and policies. 6 86 LAST Scenarios are not attempts to predict the future. Nor do they try to articulate visions Anticipated Respectively, the In the OECD rankings for or desirable futures. Scenario planning is population of global economic research-based business Melbourne by 2030. output and patented collaboration. Meeting energy, innovation that water, waste, is produced by transport, food, and the world’s top many other needs 40 megaregions. will require whole- Melbourne does of-government not form part of any collaboration. megaregion.

6 7 3 THE TASKFORCE PROCESS

The Melbourne 4.0 Taskforce process had scenario BUSINESS MODEL ANALYSIS – GREATER MELBOURNE planning at its core. The Taskforce worked through six steps by way of workshops and online surveys, as RESOURCES & PRECONDITIONS VALUE PROPOSITION ECONOMIC CLUSTERS well as individual interviews. The result is a co-created Education & Capital Connectivity Human Capital Education & Healthcare roadmap to help future-proof Melbourne in the face of Research Training significant change and uncertainty.

Step 1 Bio & Medical Building & Uncover city’s value proposition Amenities Housing Culture Economic State Research Construction

RESOURCES & VALUE ECONOMIC PRECONDITIONS PROPOSITION CLUSTERS

Transport, Infra. Financial & Logistics Services Infrastructure National Liveability Knowledge Business Climate Infrastructure

Corporate Manufacturing Services Every city can be viewed from the Taking this perspective when looking at perspective of a Business Model Analysis Melbourne allows critical thinking about how (BMA). The model uncovers the unique our city makes use of its resources, how its Labour Market Business Business Services Sector way in which a city creates value for its value proposition can be strengthened, and Location Climate businesses and citizens. how it can stimulate economic growth and Events, Tourism prosperity. Hospitality & Using a ‘heat map’, at the heart of the Sports analysis is the city’s value proposition. In The identified elements and economic essence, the model tries to answer the clusters of the ‘heat map’ were rated by question: the Taskforce members in terms of their Quality of Life Governance Brand Name Sustainability contribution to the city’s competitive Retail Trade Arts & Culture advantage, as well as their sensitivity to “Why do individuals changes in the external environment. or organisations The BMA provided a high-level overview of Greater Melbourne’s value proposition and choose Melbourne focus for the Taskforce, as well as input for Step 2 of the process “Determine Scope”. Very sensitive to change Current contribution to competitive advantage of Greater Melbourne over other cities?” Sensitive to change Very high Little sensitivity to change High Average Low Very low

8 9 Step 2 MELBOURNE 4.0 – TREND CLUSTERS Determine scope 1. Rising Powers and Geopolitical Shifts The rise of Asia will be a central feature of the 21st century. The unipolar system that characterised the post-Cold War international order appears set to be replaced by a multipolar system.

2. Cyber Security and Vulnerability Technological advances and access to technology are intensifying the threat of cyber-crime, revolutionising warfare and posing new challenges to security.

A clearly defined scope is essential for Given that the Fourth Industrial Revolution 3. The New Political Divide a valuable scenario planning exercise. will profoundly change the way we live, The left versus right political divide is receding, with open versus closed societies Combined with the Business Model work and do business – and in recognising representing the emerging political fault line. Analysis, the boundaries of the scope that a city’s liveability is fundamentally (i.e. time horizon, geographical location, underpinned by its economic capacity – stakeholders, etc.) guide the formulation of the focal question for the Melbourne 4.0 4. Increasing Transnational Instability the focal question; i.e. which question are Taskforce was defined as: Disruptive shifts in technology and geopolitics, as well as shifts in societal expectations, we trying to answer? economic inequality, climate change and the (perceived) rising risk of a global pandemic are creating a new fragility in the world that is directly impacting how governments and “In 2030, how will our economy support a businesses operate. liveable and flourishing Greater Melbourne 5. Near Shoring and Reshoring Shorter product cycles, supply chain risks, and new manufacturing technologies are that has the ability to take advantage of encouraging companies to increasingly move production facilities (back) closer to their major markets. significant change and disruption?” 6. The Creative Class and Knowledge-Based Economy A more automated economy will require different human skills and lead to a higher demand for highly skilled workers for which the competition is global and intense. Step 3 Explore the external environment 7. From a ‘Push’ to ‘Pull’ Driven System The practice of ‘pushing’ standardised products to mass markets is being replaced by ‘pulling’ practices, where companies co-create and assemble products in customised ways to serve local and/or specialised needs.

8. Winner-Take-All Economy In some key industries, a new ‘winner-take-all’ dynamic is emerging, with a wide gap between the most profitable firms and the rest.

Next, trends and uncertainties in the Using the PESTED1 dimensions, the external environment were identified. Melbourne 4.0 Taskforce identified many Often, the trends manifest themselves important trends. These were subsequently in megatrends – which are the large and reduced to a set of eighteen trend clusters structural changes that are outside our that will fundamentally impact Melbourne’s control, and which structurally shift the future economic environment. environment we find ourselves in.

1PESTED: Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Ecological and Demographic

10 11 9. From Ownership to Access Step 4 Traditional ownership models are becoming less relevant, with the new ‘sharing economy’ Establish critical uncertainties becoming increasingly important.

10. New Social Relationships and Increased Access to Information Traditional forms of social engagement are declining as people increasingly move aspects of their life online, forming new social relationships.

11. Big Data and the Internet of Things Big data and the Internet of Things are becoming a key basis for competition and are creating game-changing opportunities; production efficiency, distribution, and innovation all stand to benefit immensely. Employing the scenario planning process, the Melbourne 4.0 Taskforce found that the two most critical uncertainties – the two key 12. More Disruptive Technologies and Innovative Advancements ‘change drivers’ – for Melbourne’s economy The speed and scope of disruptive technologies and innovative advances are heralding the out to 2030 were the impact of the shifting Fourth Industrial Revolution, which is set to fundamentally alter the way we live and work. geopolitical landscape and the rate of global technological disruption and innovative advances. 13. Self-Sufficiency and Preparedness An increasing number of people are more aware of and anxious about global developments, precipitating a rise in self-sufficient lifestyles. CHANGE DRIVER 1: RISING POWERS & GEOPOLITICAL SHIFTS 14. More Emphasis on Environmental Sustainability Concerns about climate change, resource scarcity, as well as a desire to be more frugal, are influencing the drive of individuals and communities towards greater environmental Western Leadership Eastern Leadership sustainability. 1. The West retains economic 1. The East attains economic and political leadership and political leadership 15. More Noticeable Effects of Climate Change The impact of climate change is becoming more apparent, particularly with more extreme 2. Post WW II system of multilateral 2. Post WW II system of multilateral weather events and rising sea levels. Climate change adaptation and mitigation will become institutions remains largely intact institutions undergoes significant change a significant focus.

16. Resource Scarcity Urbanisation, population growth and economic development will continue to drive strong CHANGE DRIVER 2: demand for (non-renewable) natural resources. MORE DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES & INNOVATIVE ADVANCEMENTS

17. Urbanisation Technological Evolution Technological Revolution Across the globe, particularly in developing countries, there is a strong and sustained trend of people moving from the countryside into cities. 1. Linear rate of innovation 1. Exponential rate of innovation

2. Limited adoption 2. Broad and deep adoption 18. Changing Demographics In addition to sustained population growth, significant changes are occurring to the age 3. Limited and fragmented merging of 3. Increasing fusion of physical, profiles of countries and communities across the world. This will impact the way businesses physical, digital and biological spheres digital and biological spheres operate, governments deliver services and cities develop.

These two change drivers formed the axes for the scenario framework.

12 13 Step 5 Step 6 Develop scenarios Generate and validate Strategic Needs

SCENARIO SCENARIO 1 2

SCENARIO SCENARIO 3 4

The extreme ends of the spectrum of the The resulting scenario framework developed Scenarios credibly stretch and challenge To validate their robustness, the potential two change drivers were used to develop by the Taskforce sketches a range of our frames of reference and as such provide responses were ‘wind tunnel’ tested to rate the scenarios by forming the axes of the plausible futures for Melbourne which are an excellent platform for a structured how future-proof they are under all four 2 x 2 matrix framework. By using the divergent, challenging, and relevant. conversation about the future of Melbourne scenarios. ‘opposing’ ends of the change drivers, we and its stakeholders. were able to create four maximally divergent In essence, the scenarios revealed that if we and internally consistent scenarios that keep progressing with ‘business as usual,’ The final step that the Melbourne 4.0 illuminate all corners of the ‘playing field’ in the future of our city will not be bright. Taskforce undertook was to generate which Melbourne will need to operate and responses to the challenges and compete in 2030. opportunities that the scenarios uncovered.

Technological Revolution

ASIA’S BARGAIN URBAN RUST BASEMENT

Western Eastern Leadership Leadership METROPOLITAN RIDING MISERY THE WAVE

Technological Evolution

14 15 4 THE SCENARIOS

SCENARIO 1: URBAN RUST

Each scenario is underpinned by a detailed narrative which can be found in section 7 of this report. Life in Melbourne Technological Revolution It is the year 2030. Adam and Natalia are a married couple living in the eastern ASIA’S BARGAIN URBAN RUST BASEMENT suburbs of Melbourne. Both are 47 years old and have two daughters, Danielle Western Eastern Leadership Leadership and Jessica, studying at university. METROPOLITAN RIDING MISERY THE WAVE Life in Melbourne offers a snapshot of Adam and Natalia’s outlook on life in Technological each scenario. Evolution

THE ROAD TO 2030… It’s Adam here. I currently work as a Relationship Manager at a After a brief period of turbulence, Western Instability in the East hampered medium-sized manufacturing company in Melbourne’s east. economic and political systems stabilised: growth and political systems came I used to be the bookkeeper, but a fancy robot took my job. My under severe strain: wife, Natalia, is a human resources manager at a medium-sized • Transatlantic harmonisation of investment biomedical company. With Australia again entering recession and technology regulations accelerated • Protectionism, corruption, debt burdens last year, life has been a bit of a struggle. My company is not innovation and competitiveness. and housing bubbles. performing well and I fear for its future. If I lose my job, it will be • Triple helix cooperation between • Maintaining control distracted from difficult to find another. To compound the stress, Natalia is only government, business and knowledge fostering innovative ecosystems. working three days per week. The biomed sector is holding up, but sector drove innovation and growth. • Mainly driven by key Western cities and is not as competitive as it used to be. Locally designed innovations • Cities and regions were engines of regions, Fourth Industrial Revolution are being commercialised overseas, while automation of many transatlantic innovation and growth. is underway with exponential rates of processes means she no longer manages as many staff. Many technological innovation. ‘good’ jobs exist, but not here. Most are found in the advanced hubs and regions dotted throughout Europe and the US where AUSTRALIA IN 2030 commercialisation is strong. My kids are already contemplating moving to these parts of the world upon completion of their studies • Complacent and not fully prepared for • Melbourne and Sydney drive two-thirds – it will break Natalia’s heart to see them go. The technological Fourth Industrial Revolution. Politics and of the national economy. explosion that took off a couple of years ago has left many people regulation bedevil competitiveness. • Climate change impacts infrastructure bewildered and angry. There have been some incredible advances • ‘Technology taker’: partially rides and liveability of cities. in energy use, communications technology and transport, yet tech wave in agribusiness, healthcare most people yearn for a simpler time when it was easier to find a and tourism. well-paid, stimulating job. With the recession, there is a noticeable • Economy enters recession as key Asian difference between people who are coping and those struggling to trading partners become protectionist, get by. Don’t get me started on the crime wave sweeping parts of inward-looking and security obsessed. the city!

16 17 SCENARIO 2: ASIA’S BARGAIN BASEMENT

Technological Revolution

ASIA’S BARGAIN URBAN RUST BASEMENT

Western Eastern Leadership Leadership METROPOLITAN RIDING MISERY THE WAVE

Technological Evolution

THE ROAD TO 2030…

Eastern economies continued their historical Asia’s rise contrasts with relative Life in Melbourne growth trajectories: decline of the West:

• In 2030, Asia is the global engine • North America and Europe have Hi, Natalia here. Adam is down at Phillip Island showing some of innovation and growth. not recovered from polarisation tourists the penguins, so I’ll fill you in on how we’re travelling. and isolationism. Unfortunately, due to intense competition and robotisation, Adam • Asian mega-cities and regions have become centres of innovation. • Capital and talent fled to prosperous was laid off by his manufacturing firm, along with most of the and stable East. remaining staff. It’s been very difficult for all of us, but particularly Adam. He’s managed to find some work as a travel guide, but Mainly driven by key Asian mega-cities they’re long days, the pay isn’t great and he doesn’t find the work and regions, Fourth Industrial Revolution overly stimulating. Still, at least he’s got something! I’m still clinging is underway with exponential rates of technological innovation. to my job. My firm was bought out by a Chinese competitor and as a result most of our research and operations have been relocated to Shanghai, home to China’s largest cluster of biomedical science AUSTRALIA IN 2030 firms. They are encouraging Adam and me to relocate there so I can • Complacent and not fully prepared for • ‘Technology taker’: partially rides tech take up a position. I’d prefer to remain in Melbourne close to my Fourth Industrial Revolution. Politics and wave in tertiary education, agribusiness, family, but we may not have much choice. Melbourne’s economy regulation bedevil competitiveness. healthcare and tourism. is simply not creating enough highly paid jobs in this transformed environment. Governments in Victoria and New South Wales • Economies of key Asian trading • Climate change impacts infrastructure partners thrive. and liveability of cities. are implementing initiatives to link Melbourne and Sydney, most notably with the creation of a high-speed transit system, which will • Economy grows. help move goods and labour faster. By the way, the kids will be • Melbourne and Sydney drive two-thirds leaving for Jakarta next month, where there are many professional of the national economy. opportunities. I never could have envisioned a situation where they would be living in Indonesia, while we reside in China!

18 19 SCENARIO 3: METROPOLITAN MISERY

Technological Revolution

ASIA’S BARGAIN URBAN RUST BASEMENT

Western Eastern Leadership Leadership METROPOLITAN RIDING MISERY THE WAVE

Technological Evolution

THE ROAD TO 2030… Life in Melbourne After a brief period of turbulence, economic Fourth Industrial Revolution turned out and political cooperation and integration to be an evolution: returned in the West: Life is hard! The Australian economy entered a deep and sustained • Serious cyber security issues and recession a few years back and there’s no end in sight. Adam has • Transatlantic security cooperation catastrophic technology failures led been out of work for a couple of years now after his manufacturing and trade and investment grew. to clamp-down from governments. company shut its doors. He now volunteers at a local homeless Period of diminished trade exposed • Differing regulatory environments shelter, one of many which have sprung up in recent times. I think structural flaws in Asian economic and popular backlash against being around the homeless helps him keep perspective – knowing and political systems: technology-induced unemployment. that things could always be worse. I’m still working my three- • Prolonged period of economic instability day-a-week job. Fortunately for me, the sharp slowdown in Asia and social unrest. helped relieve some competitive pressures, while the expected developments in automation and artificial intelligence did not occur. • Domestic strains increased tensions The ‘innovations’ and disruption that started to take place were between Asian countries. completely chaotic, so governments put a stop to it. My company is still under pressure, but we’re hanging on. Melbourne is not what it AUSTRALIA IN 2030 once was. Its confidence and energy are gone, having been replaced • Economies of key Asian trading • State jurisdictions abolished by apprehension and a shared sense of failure. The arts scene is a partners slow. to reduce cost of government; shade of its former glory – discretionary spending for most of us is populism on the rise. limited or non-existent now. Along with the rise in homelessness, • Gateway to Asia status no longer an asset. • Development of disruptive crime has also increased. This hasn’t been helped by the series • Economy enters severe and technologies slows following local of budget cuts to the city’s policing department. The city’s green sustained recession. and global popular backlash. spaces are no longer as green, while inequality has risen. The city has lost its sparkle and the blame-game has begun on why and how • Cities now overwhelmingly drive • Climate change has strong impact on the national economy. infrastructure and liveability of cities. it all went wrong. If I was to find one bright spot, the kids might now be able to afford a home, that is if they can find a job first.

20 21 SCENARIO 4: RIDING THE WAVE

Technological Revolution

ASIA’S BARGAIN URBAN RUST BASEMENT

Western Eastern Leadership Leadership METROPOLITAN RIDING MISERY THE WAVE

Technological Evolution

THE ROAD TO 2030… Life in Melbourne Prolonged polarisation and isolationism had Top-down and longer-term focus crippling effect on the West: was fertile ground for economic success in the East: Hey, it’s Adam here again! All things considered, life here is still • European Union disintegrated and Trump pretty good. It has certainly been a tumultuous time in world Doctrine closed off the United States. • Key economies across Asia created affairs, but Melbourne and Australia continue to roll along at a favourable business climates; corruption, • Painful and turbulent time for individuals, bureaucracy and infrastructure were nice clip. We could certainly be doing better, but I’m just grateful businesses and governments in the West. effectively addressed. we’re not trying to make a living in Europe! Its demise has been so sad to watch – many of its best and brightest have moved to • Home to two-thirds of global middle class; Asia or made their way to our shores. This is not necessarily a this is a prosperous and confident Asia. bad thing. As Australia’s education standards continue to slip, we • Fearing social instability, technological are simply not producing enough highly skilled individuals. On a disruption was regulated and ‘contained’. brighter note personally, my manufacturing firm is holding its own. The Fourth Industrial Revolution turned There is intense competition throughout Asia – particularly in China out to be an evolution. and India – but we are competitive. Natalia’s biomedical firm is also performing relatively well; the sector’s research capabilities AUSTRALIA IN 2030 in Melbourne remain highly regarded around the globe. While • We are in the orbit of major • Development of disruptive technologies challenged, Melbourne’s key economic sectors – tertiary education, Asian economies. less than predicted. agribusiness, professional services, healthcare and construction – continue to perform well, thankfully. Natalia and I are confident • Australia joins intra-Asian alliance • Climate change has strong impact on our two kids will find decent jobs, although they may have to look to balance China. country’s infrastructure and liveability of cities. outside of Melbourne if they want to purchase a home. Either that, • Cities now overwhelmingly drive or they’ll continue to live with us for the foreseeable future. Might the national economy. have to put off that planned overseas holiday for a few more years!

22 23 5 MELBOURNE’S STRATEGIC NEEDS

“Cities magnify humanity’s strengths… They spur MELBOURNE 4.0 KEY FINDINGS innovation by facilitating face-to-face interaction, STRATEGIC NEEDS they attract talent and sharpen it through competition, they encourage entrepreneurship, and they allow for social and economic mobility.” — Professor Edward Glaeser, Fred and Eleanor Glimp Professor of Economics, PEOPLE People Harvard University 1. Future skills 2. Innovative ecosystem CONNECTIVITY GOVERNANCE Humanity has been moving into cities for thousands of years and the reasons for that 3. Housing mix today are no different to what they were millennia ago.

Throughout history, there have been three key elements that give cities enduring success: people, connectivity and governance. Connectivity While these elements do not change, the PEOPLE context in which these elements manifest themselves does. Now that we are in 4. Competitive internet the early stages of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, we must ensure that our city can 5. Airport link progress and develop in concert with our (rapidly) changing environment. CONNECTIVITY GOVERNANCE 6. Eastern seaboard transit link

The scenarios produced by the Melbourne 4.0 Taskforce provided an excellent platform for a structured conversation about Melbourne’s future economic environment, which generated a set of responses to the challenges and opportunities the scenarios uncovered.

In line with the elements that give cities Governance enduring success – people, connectivity PEOPLE and governance – the Taskforce identified nine Strategic Needs that will have to 7. Metropolitan collaboration be addressed if we are serious about underpinning a liveable and flourishing 8. Eastern seaboard Melbourne in the future. CONNECTIVITY GOVERNANCE collaboration 9. Digital capability

24 25 5 MELBOURNE’S STRATEGIC NEEDS

3 Housing mix

Melbourne’s key workers, including nurses, Potential advocacy options police officers and teachers, are particularly for the Committee: challenged in finding a place to live close to their location of employment. • Rental accommodation as an attractive institutional investment class. 1 Future skills Furthermore, high cost of living – of which housing costs are a major determinant – has • Student accommodation Linear careers will become less common as Potential advocacy options a detrimental effect on a city’s creativity and in aged-care facilities. automation, globalisation and more flexible for the Committee: innovative capacity; expensive cities make working arrangements are rapidly changing • An experiential entrepreneurship program self-employment and entrepreneurship more the nature of work. To succeed, our in primary school and secondary school difficult. economy needs a workforce with a portfolio curriculum, and Vocational Education and of skills and capabilities. Training (VET) programs. 4 Competitive internet One of the most effective ways to address • An annual entrepreneurial camp Internet speed, coverage, capacity and Potential option for the Committee: this is to encourage and support a job- for highly skilled teenagers. creating and enterprising workforce in security will profoundly affect cities’ ability to Australia. compete in international markets. • A ‘Competitive Melbourne Internet’ taskforce to review options and make We need a better understanding of our current recommendations. and future internet requirements in light of international competitive developments and, if found to be wanting, act to address the situation.

5 Airport link

The world’s leading cities have high quality Potential option for the Committee: Melbourne one of the world’s direct (public) transport links to their leading start-up scenes airports. Melbourne does not. • An ‘Airport Connectivity’ taskforce to review options and advocate a Appropriate options are available. They preferred action plan. Biopollinator, EventFinder, HealthSportz. should be assessed, particularly with the com. These are some of the recent success stories coming out of Melbourne’s thriving objective of establishing Melbourne’s start-up scene, a scene which did not come airport(s) as a strong regional, interstate and about by chance. The decision to include global link, as well as improving Melbourne’s entrepreneurship in the state’s primary international image. and secondary school curriculum has paid handsome dividends. Mark Zu, the 19-year- old founder of Biopollinator, claims the ‘experiential’ classes had made it “almost second nature” to start his own business.

Airport passenger footfall 2 Innovative ecosystem surges beyond expectation Most globally relevant cities have a sizeable Potential (advocacy) options innovative (start-up) ecosystem. These for the Committee: places are attracting highly skilled workers For the first time in its history, passenger traffic • A Committee for Melbourne Mentoring at Melbourne Airport has surpassed 65 million and investors, generating the next wave of Network. annually. The announcement, made by Australia economic growth. Pacific Airports Corporation, is yet another sign • Annual international tours for leading of Melbourne’s broad appeal, both as a business There are already great initiatives to help Melburnian entrepreneurs. hub and visitor destination. The figure has nurture Melbourne’s innovative capacity and surpassed the estimated 60 million passenger ecosystem. However, there is a need for • An international network with other trips forecast prior to the opening of the airport continuous improvement and development. innovative cities. transit link in 2025. Connecting Tullamarine Airport and Southern Cross Station, the link • Yarra River activation to develop a corridor has ensured Melbourne has a first-class transit for arts, culture and commerce. system that is moving people in a timely and efficient manner. • A collaborative industry-research partnership to deliver innovative energy solutions.

26 27 5 MELBOURNE’S STRATEGIC NEEDS

8 Eastern seaboard collaboration

Already a decade ago, the world’s top 40 Potential option for the Committee: megaregions made up ‘only’ 18% of the population, but produced 66% of global • An ‘Eastern Seaboard Collaboration’ economic activity and 86% of patented taskforce led by the Committees for innovation. Megaregions are the ‘New Melbourne and Sydney to develop 6 Eastern seaboard transit link Competitive Unit’. a blueprint for an eastern seaboard megaregion. Megaregions are the ‘New Competitive cities experience, stimulate the economy Effective collaboration between the (capital) Unit’. They are integrated sets of cities and and increase our ability to compete in cities along Australia’s eastern seaboard will surrounding (suburban) hinterlands across international markets. provide a real competitive boost. which labour and capital can be allocated at very low cost. Potential advocacy option for the Committee: Constructing a high-speed eastern seaboard transit link will be a major step forward in • A competitive eastern seaboard transit the creation of a megaregion, which will link, including key Victorian regional effectively alleviate some of the major centres. population challenges that our capital

7 Metropolitan collaboration Melbourne and Sydney A hyper-competitive global business We need better metropolitan governance begin new romance environment, a growing population, a arrangements to build a resilient, After nearly 130 years of antagonism and challenging housing market and digital economically competitive city that can bitter rivalry covering everything from sport to innovation are some of the key factors confront the challenges and capture the commerce to coffee, Melbourne and Sydney are that will significantly increase pressure on opportunities that the 21st century will openly embracing one another. Gone are the days Greater Melbourne’s governance structures. bring. when both cities looked to undercut each other for the next big economic project – be it through zoning regulation changes, government subsidies Potential option for the Committee: or tax breaks. City and state authorities now meet regularly to forge new cooperative partnerships. • A ‘Metropolitan Collaboration’ taskforce One such success is the positioning of Australia’s to review governance structures and eastern seaboard as a global finance and wealth make recommendations. management services mega hub.

9 Digital capability

The scale and scope of rapid technological Potential advocacy options developments will drive productivity, growth for the Committee: and investment, as well as improve public services, and enable scientific breakthroughs. • A Digital Commissioner for Victoria However, at the same time, it can cause to engage with the world’s top tech great disruption to employment markets and companies. society at large. • A Victorian All-Party Parliamentary Melbourne must be digitally capable Group on Artificial Intelligence. to successfully navigate the significant challenges and opportunities of the 21st century.

28 29 6 OUR TIME STARTS NOW 7 DETAILED SCENARIOS

“The future is already here – it’s just not evenly distributed.”— William Gibson, Science fiction pioneer SCENARIO 1: “URBAN RUST”

The next decades will see profound Moreover, in the course of our work, it has changes to the environment in which become clear that there are a number of Melbourne’s economy will operate and conversations we cannot delay any longer. compete. The far-reaching technological A Victorian All-Party Parliamentary Group on I. Technological • Exponential rate of innovation changes that are taking place, coupled with Artificial Intelligence, proposed to strengthen Revolution big geopolitical shifts, are likely to alter our digital capability, is just one example • Broad and deep adoption the landscape beyond our imagination. of how we must create an informed public • Increasing fusion of physical, digital and debate and common understandings about biological spheres To echo William Gibson’s astute observation, how to manage the consequences for our we can, however, already catch a glimpse society of accelerating digital disruption. of the future and the opportunities Similar discussion is needed on a range of it offers at a global level with Asia’s fast emerging fields from biotechnology to II. Western • The West retains economic and political growing strategic weight and right here the Internet of Things, and from robotics to Leadership leadership in Melbourne with technology. Our city’s quantum computing. How do we feel about biotech industry, for example, regularly algorithms guiding parole decisions? What • Post WW II system of multilateral delivers world-leading innovation. level of privacy is non-negotiable in an age of institutions remains largely intact hyper-connectivity? And what does a ‘fair go’ No city is yet fully experiencing the mean when babies are genetically modified? breadth and depth with which the Fourth Industrial Revolution is likely to unfold. The In reality, the findings of the Melbourne Technological Committee’s Melbourne 4.0 Taskforce 4.0 Taskforce are only the beginning of a Revolution was given the remit to help uncover – new and ongoing conversation about the and try to make sense of – the impact future of our beloved city. We would like that these changes are likely to have on to thank all those who have contributed to Melbourne. By employing the collective the Melbourne 4.0 Taskforce through our knowledge and insight of our unique ASIA’S BARGAIN workshops, interviews and online forum. URBAN RUST membership base, the Taskforce co-created BASEMENT a set of scenarios that sketch a range of The Committee is looking forward plausible futures for Melbourne which to being at the forefront of these are divergent, challenging and relevant. conversations as we continue to shape Western Eastern a better future for Melbourne. Leadership Leadership We cannot predict the future. However, METROPOLITAN RIDING the Strategic Needs that the Taskforce identified present robust investment MISERY THE WAVE opportunities for our city; they are rated essential under all scenarios, and we must work together to address them. Technological Evolution

30 31 THE ROAD TO 2030… Over the same period, instability and AUSTRALIA IN 2030 The slowdown in Asia has also led to a uncertainty hampered many (emerging) significant reduction in inbound investment to The negative effects on growth and economies in Asia where economic and By 2017, Australia had marked 26 Australia. The country’s role as a gateway to innovation due to a brief period of social political systems came under severe strain. consecutive years of economic growth. Asia has disappeared as many investments and political polarisation in a ‘closed’ West The Chinese property market in large However, Australia’s success created a false are redirected to Europe and North America. – manifesting itself in ‘Brexit’ and the Trump cities started to severely deflate, forcing sense of security among governments and presidency – made Western societies authorities in Beijing to stabilise it. However, large pockets of the private sector. Despite Australia dips in and out of recession. realise that cooperation between countries this exposed the country’s large debt often widespread discontent with how and regions was vital. Protectionism and burden, making it hard for the government politics is conducted in Australia, relative Climate change continues apace and is isolationist tendencies had to be avoided. to manage the economy. A frustrated economic well-being meant that hard beyond Australia’s influence, but has had a After these years of turmoil, Western population could no longer accept being decisions were consistently put off in favour strong impact on the country’s infrastructure, political, economic and financial systems limited in their freedom and not having the of short-term wins. and the liveability of its cities. Lack of stabilised. power to determine their future direction. investment in cutting-edge Information and The Chinese government had to refocus its Australia’s wealth is increasingly driven from Communication Technology (ICT) has held Western economies invested in open attention to maintaining domestic stability its major cities, with Melbourne and Sydney Australia back. innovation and data. Wide-ranging and increased protectionist measures. The now the source of 65% of national economic As a technology taker, Australia can still harmonisation of investment and technology carefully crafted supply chain networks in output. partially ride the wave of the disruptive regulations facilitated and accelerated Asia started to disintegrate, which raised Profound advances in wide-ranging technologies and innovative advances, innovation. Cooperation between companies, regional tensions. Historical grievances and technologies underpinning the Fourth especially in the health and agribusiness knowledge institutions and governments disputes reignited. Water scarcity and control Industrial Revolution have greatly improved sectors. Australia remains an attractive increased (‘triple helix cooperation’). A more of its supply became an increasing source of the quality, speed and price at which tourism destination. stable economic and political climate for tension as low-level conflicts between the many products and services are delivered. investment in new technologies was created, countries along the Mekong and Indus river The velocity and breadth of the changes Politics and regulation bedevil Australia’s leading to breakthroughs in a range of fields, systems ensued. The resulting economic in advanced economies has outpaced competitiveness and ability to thrive in including nanotechnology, biotechnology, hardship in Asia not only brought to the fore Australia. The world’s leading companies the Fourth Industrial Revolution, with materials science, energy storage, robotics, the high levels of corruption, but ignited have introduced far-reaching innovations, implications for Australia’s reputation as a artificial intelligence and quantum computing. large-scale protests in countries with sizeable such as the introduction of the first Artificial ‘lifestyle superpower.’ Impacts of climate change and resource young populations, notably Indonesia, Intelligence machines on corporate boards – scarcity, combined with social and economic the Philippines and India. This further the relaxed ‘she’ll be right’ attitude and lack Pressure to change Australian governance challenges confronting ageing societies has exacerbated the threat of transnational of urgency has not helped Australia in this arrangements increases to deal with these spurred open, triple helix cooperation on extremism and terrorism. Maintaining internal respect. challenges and populism is on the rise. new and innovative technologies. Innovation stability was the priority for many Asian and growth is not distributed evenly across countries, hindering their efforts to foster In the face of these fast-moving technological the West – Greece, Italy and the Balkan vibrant and innovative ecosystems able to developments, many of Australia’s closest states remain stagnant. However, many key compete on the global stage. Western nation-states, including the US, trading partners in Asia have begun to sway Canada, UK, Germany, France, Switzerland towards protectionism, and the Federal and Finland, are reaping the benefits of their Government and industry have had to key cities and regions driving innovation and scramble to pursue opportunities in other growth. regions, notably the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.

32 33 MELBOURNE IN 2030 The Economy robots and synthetic biology to increase Biomedical research has historically been a While Australian consumers are keen productivity, while fighting the increased strong contributor to Melbourne’s economy Governance adopters of technology, business and effects of climate change. Nevertheless, and continues to perform relatively well. For years, cities such as Vancouver, San government have not matched the many farmers have not been able to make However, the city experiences difficulty Francisco, New York, Oslo and Barcelona consumer’s enthusiasm, making Melbourne’s the necessary investments in technology, attracting global talent, due in part to strict have implemented progressive policies private sector a prime target for digital and the associated labour, to capitalise on skilled migration controls imposed by allowing them to become urban laboratories disruptors. the opportunities. The state’s crumbling successive governments. This development, incubating intelligent solutions to pressing infrastructure adds to these difficulties, combined with the fact that many locally urban challenges. As a result, citizens in Only a limited number of businesses in with the costs of transporting produce to developed innovations are commercialised these cities have an enviable relationship Melbourne have benefitted and thrived in domestic and international markets still high. overseas, means the sector is no longer as with their governments, and businesses this rapidly evolving environment. Most competitive as during its peak in the 2010s. Melbourne’s financial services sector enjoy a competitive business environment. companies lack the capacity to implement has taken a beating. Globally, ‘fintech’ Initiatives such as tax collection through advanced technologies and struggle to attract Tourism is another sector that has saw enormous amounts of investments blockchain technology mean these cities can the talent needed to thrive. Melbourne’s (and experienced turbulent times. The number and the banks were trying to defend their interact effectively with their constituents Australia’s) consistent drop in the educational of Asians visiting Melbourne has dropped large operational footprints. Recognising and provide vastly more cost-effective rankings has seen foreign investment significantly. Nevertheless, Melbourne’s the growth of the fintech community in the government services, allowing them to direct increasingly gravitate towards rival cities, rich cultural offering and surrounding 2010s, some local and global incumbents precious resources to their city’s ever- where top talent is more abundant. natural beauty – despite the serious loss of realised early a tipping point had been expanding value proposition. Melbourne is no longer as attractive for biodiversity in some pockets of Victoria’s reached; however, making investments foreign investors as it once was. parks – still attracts many visitors, particularly in unproven technologies and operations These cities have formed international those from North America and Europe. proved to be a hard sell, particularly in listed networks and are increasingly looked to for Globally, the new economic reality sees Some local entrepreneurs have successfully companies. It turned out that scale was solving some of society’s most entrenched latent capacity being unlocked in areas promoted Melbourne and Victoria through no match; market provisioning, investment challenges. Though Melbourne’s liveability ranging from accommodation to hospital virtual reality, encouraging people to management, insurance, deposits and and reputation were highly respected in the equipment and from finance to construction experience the real thing. lending, and capital raising are systematically 2010s and early 2020s, the lack of city-wide machinery. Evolving customer expectations picked apart by nimble and segment-specific pro-active and coordinated policies around are accelerated by the increased bargaining Globally, some of the biggest advances have competitors. The banks in Australia still innovation, technological development, power of customers who are at the centre of been in the healthcare sector, which has play an important role, especially given climate change and urban optimisation the economy, while automation, virtualisation benefitted from the technologies mostly their ‘protected’ status; however, switching means the city has lost touch with other and disintermediation significantly alter developed in Europe and North America. banking services has become far easier. leading cities of the world. supply-side cost structures. Like the Myki initiative however, Australia Large segments of the banks’ customer base has tried to develop its own digital health moved on to the global fintech competitors, Melbourne’s inability to innovate and Despite Melbourne’s economy contracting, record program, which is still experiencing many of whom have become household compete internationally is partially a result a number of persistent organisations have issues and long delays, meaning that certain names, including some of the early of the city’s fragmented governance been able to capitalise on the opportunities areas are missing out on the enormous competitors that originated in Melbourne. structure, consisting of 31 Councils across offered by the new landscape. In line with opportunities that big data delivers to the healthcare sector. Though not as ubiquitous the metropolitan region. Consequently, the a larger trend in Europe and North America, Melbourne’s education sector has as in some advanced cities in North America State Government has created a Greater some manufacturing has returned to experienced significant headwinds due to and Europe, Melbourne’s elderly are Metropolitan Melbourne Council, stretching Melbourne; entrepreneurs that make use of the slowdown in Asia. While some local welcoming robotic assistance with tasks from Wyndham to the Yarra Ranges big data, robotics, production line simulation, universities have devised new methods such as picking up groceries or taking out the and from Whittlesea to the Mornington 3D printing and predictive maintenance have of engaging with students, such as using rubbish. Smart homes and ‘Socially Assistive Peninsula. It is hoped this whole-of-city been able to carve out a lucrative niche. virtual and augmented reality, those same approach will support economic growth by However, the lack of a sufficient network technologies have also emboldened the Robots’ complement aged care workers and not only improving planning and delivery of smart suppliers means that even these globe’s top universities in the United States allow seniors to stay at home longer and live of infrastructure, but promoting the wider manufacturers find it hard to optimise their and England to successfully compete more active lives. metropolitan area as a great place to work, processes and opportunities. In addition through online learning. Though the value Human Capital live, invest in, and visit. – and despite Australia’s significantly of a ‘Western’ degree remains appealing, weaker currency – the city’s products are shifting skill requirements mean that many Melbourne’s population has continued to It remains to be seen whether this alternative uncompetitive in the major markets of North people are gravitating towards the new grow and passed six million people. A severe governance structure will deliver the desired America and Europe that apply penalty tariffs tertiary institutions – including those founded shortage of schools means that the city’s results; lifting local businesses’ international on products that have a large environmental by the global tech giants – offering shorter education system has been under pressure competitiveness, as well as retaining and footprint. courses and nanodegrees. This trend is for over two decades. Larger classroom attracting foreign investment will take further amplified by advances in blockchain sizes, school rationing and multiple school time. Yet despite the Australian economy Similarly, having been used to hardship, technology, which allows prospective shifts have become additional factors dipping in and out of recession due to Asia’s Victoria’s farmers’ entrepreneurial and employers to easily check the authenticity of contributing to regular poor performances in contraction, there is a renewed sense of innovative spirit to survive has produced people’s academic qualifications. As a result, international rankings. Moreover, Australia’s hope that this new governance structure many successful agricultural businesses. Melbourne’s universities have had to cut their fixation with testing students at primary and can help Melbourne regain its footing and These enterprises make use of drones, overhead costs and increasingly engage the secondary school has stifled innovation. compete globally. sensors, genetically modified crops, services of online tutors. Schools have emphasised the importance of

34 35 academic discipline and the need to follow private vehicles, as well as remote (virtual) surrounding rural areas due to human activity Internationally, Melbourne’s brand name is instructions to ensure they rank as high as working are allowing people to live further – in these neighbourhoods. Residents remain reliant on the Australian Open, which was possible, generating a workforce that is just from the centres of innovation while still inside during the warmer months and choose secured for another 26 years in 2010, but as compliant. Melbourne’s universities retain having access to the denser job markets in to drive whenever they go out – even for their uncertainty remains as to what will happen their decent reputation, but find it hard to the centre. The emergence of the first drones local coffee. Flooding has become a recurring after that. The Grand Prix was labelled compete with the top universities in Europe for personal transport in some of these cities feature in once highly rated suburbs along ‘unaffordable’ in the early 2020s and soon and North America. Oftentimes, Melbourne’s has emerged. The three magic words of real the Bay and the Yarra. The social impacts of after left Melbourne. Melbourne meandered most talented individuals who go overseas to estate (“location, location, location”) are climate change are becoming pronounced. along with key stakeholders failing to truly study and work do not return. starting to take on a new meaning in these Mental health issues, chronic disease and grasp the challenges confronting the city. cities and their surrounding regions. alcohol misuse, have become more common Today, the city’s business climate is a Leading cities with modern ICT infrastructure and widespread. Furthermore, access to, and shadow of its former self and the last five are seeing significant parts of the workforce Australia did not lay the groundwork for these participation in, cultural events and activities years have seen significant hardship for becoming truly international. The same innovations. Many countries that were once is limited in the outer suburbs as the many once-thriving businesses. Years of technologies that allow their residents to considered the developing world now have government’s and councils’ eroding revenue sub-optimal investments, combined with an work from a café also allow them to become much faster internet connections in their base for amenities in the new suburbs is a economy now unable to underpin them, has ‘virtual workers’ for employers in other capital cities than Melbourne has. Squabbling world apart from what it was in the ‘good old severely impacted Melbourne’s liveability. advanced cities. Importantly, this system state and federal governments are not days.’ works both ways and allows foreigners to able to provide an effective framework Crime, which already in 2016 was identified bid for tasks and jobs in these same cities. for the adoption of autonomous vehicles. Liveability by Victorians as the biggest issue facing the Although these employees and contractors Large infrastructure projects take years The early part of the 21st century saw state, has taken on a new dimension despite command considerable salaries, international to implement and are still geared towards Melbourne enjoy the fruits of the visionary the government’s ‘tough on crime’ approach. competition for these contracts ensures the traditional forms of public and private longer-term decisions that were made in The increasing segregation between the that salaries are effectively kept in check. transport. Congestion is costing Melbourne the preceding decades when the city was ‘haves and have-nots’ has seen crime rise Melbourne, with its relatively slow internet close to $10 billion a year, not even taking struggling. For most of its residents, life in strongly and gated communities are now a connectivity, cannot fully capitalise on into account the sizeable opportunity costs Melbourne was very good during the 2010s familiar sight in Melbourne. Despite valiant this trend. Organisations are forced to pay imposed on the economy. Businesses that and early 2020s as Melburnians enjoyed efforts by some individuals, communities are significantly higher salaries to attract and are trying to implement just-in-time deliveries unprecedented prosperity and liveability. increasingly disconnected and ‘living in their retain highly talented employees so they are finding it impossible. Outside the CBD, However, to some people the cracks started own world.’ can survive in the international competitive residents and businesses are paying inflated appearing long before others recognised it. More and more voices are demanding environment. In the ‘war for talent’, prices for services that other cities seem to Overseas visitors – who had experienced the leadership that will “Make Melbourne Great Melbourne’s businesses are fighting with one be able to deliver seamlessly. Melbourne’s Global Financial Crisis – were astonished by Again.” hand tied behind their backs. value proposition for business is certainly not the level of prosperity, but surprised by the what it used to be. laid-back attitude and general lack of urgency In a city where the providers of intellectual, in Australia’s capital cities. This attitude financial and physical capital are leaving Despite the advances made in the City of prevented Melbourne from making the hard the ‘rest’ behind, just keeping up requires Melbourne, the city as a whole has not kept decisions needed for smart and sustained continuous upskilling and lifelong learning pace with the leading cities of the world investments and this has now come back to for those that have the capacity to do so. that have become centres of innovation for haunt it. Others are simply falling behind. Melbourne’s infrastructure and urban optimisation. This unemployment rate hovers at nearly 18 per has meant Melbourne’s housing market cent for much of the decade out to 2030 has entered uncharted territory. Severe as governments scramble to find a balance affordability issues in the city centre and between an open and productive economy pockets throughout the south-eastern against the backdrop of rising inequality and suburbs remain, while at the same time other discontent. News outlets are now regularly suburbs have seen their house prices tumble speculating whether Melbourne and Australia due to the slowdown in large parts of the will belatedly experience the ‘new’ political economy, as well as retreating Asian property divide that Europe and the United States investors. experienced 15 years ago. Melbourne’s housing affordability issues Infrastructure and Urban Optimisation remain in the job-rich inner-city areas while The last five years have seen the housing development continues to focus on compounding effects of technological the periphery without the required transport innovation in smart and forward-thinking and communications infrastructure. This cities result in a critical turnaround – these has exacerbated spatial inequality, which cities are reaching the tipping point in is reflected in the uneven distribution of solving some of the critical challenges amenities and green spaces. This, in turn, is around transport and the associated housing also causing worsened heat island effects – affordability issues. Autonomous public and where an area is significantly warmer than its

36 37 THE ROAD TO 2030… subsidies and tariffs applied by nationalist SCENARIO 2: “ASIA’S BARGAIN BASEMENT” governments in response. Some Western The shift in global economic and political governments even started interfering with power to the East was unstoppable as their central banks’ independence. A spate Asian powers maintained their rapid of terrorist attacks across Western Europe growth trajectories. Three of Asia’s largest encouraged these countries to further isolate economies – China, India and Japan – themselves. Leaders throughout Asia and now dominate the world’s top five. Large other parts of the world were scathing of urbanised populations, government their Western counterparts, accusing them of investments in education and infrastructure, derailing global growth and threatening global I. Technological • Exponential rate of innovation combined with the will to tackle corruption, peace and prosperity. Revolution were key elements contributing to their rise. • Broad and deep adoption Business confidence soared, while inequality The post-World War II multilateral • Increasing fusion of physical, digital and decreased with many millions of people institutions, including the United Nations, biological spheres lifted out of extreme poverty thanks to NATO and the European Union, became effective wealth redistribution initiatives. The less influential, and no alternative ‘Western’ expansion of the services and higher-value successors formed. Major regulatory manufacturing sectors in these economies differences in the West created a challenging II. Eastern • The East attains economic and political helped raise consumption as a share of GDP. environment for the development and Leadership leadership Locked into the grids of these rapidly growing marketisation of new technologies. Capital economies, the mature Asian economies, increasingly fled to a more stable and • Post WW II system of multilateral including Taiwan, South Korea and Japan, prosperous Asia. Some European countries institutions undergoes significant change fared well. and cities that valiantly tried to resuscitate an open and cooperative climate did see Asian mega cities and regions have become some domestic economic successes, but centres of innovation. Open and urban it was not enough to lift the fortunes of the Technological societies throughout Asia have generated continent. Across the West, companies, Revolution innovative solutions to major social and tertiary institutions and governments failed natural challenges, including pollution, to cooperate adequately, while a large energy, ageing populations, and natural pool of talent took advantage of exciting disasters. A coordinated approach between opportunities throughout Asia. ASIA’S BARGAIN business, universities and government has URBAN RUST rapidly elevated these economies towards National governments – particularly in BASEMENT higher technological levels. In 2030, Asia is the West – gave up on real reforms and the global engine of innovation and economic outsourced many of society’s key challenges growth. to their powerhouse cities or megaregions. Western Eastern Hundreds of years ago, vast city-states – Leadership Leadership Asia’s rise contrasts with the relative decline such as Chengdu and Venice – played an METROPOLITAN RIDING of the West, which has not recovered from outsized role in shaping the terms of trade MISERY THE WAVE the social and political polarisation that began between societies and we are seeing a following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. resurgence of these functions among the Unemployment rose sharply, as did the world’s leading cities and megaregions.

Technological Evolution

38 39 AUSTRALIA IN 2030 Lack of investment in cutting-edge MELBOURNE IN 2030 globally, city authorities from Melbourne and Information and Communication Technology Sydney – with heavy backing from the private By 2017, Australia had marked 26 (ICT) has held the country back in terms of Governance sector – have advised federal authorities that consecutive years of economic growth. productivity and foreign investment. As a Asia’s communitarian tradition, where they are forming an alliance that will proceed However, Australia’s success – and, by technology taker, Australia can still partially community interests come before those with the development of a highly integrated extension, Melbourne’s success – created a ride the wave of the disruptive technologies of the individual, has helped its economies megaregion. This megaregion will have false sense of security among governments and innovative advances, especially in the stay the course in times of rapid change. access to affordable land and incorporate and large pockets of the private sector. knowledge, health and agribusiness sectors. A consistent approach to economic 21st century sustainability principles. It Resting on our laurels, governments at all The country remains an attractive tourism development, based on innovation and will adopt a region-wide, highly rigorous levels began rolling out extravagant social destination for Asian travellers. productivity gains, means that the benefits education curriculum to ensure the cities can programs and services, many of which were of the technological and innovative advances adapt and compete in the competitive global viewed as luxuries in other parts of the Politics and regulation bedevil Australia’s are being captured. Mindful of the need economy. Furthermore, authorities advocate world. A soft underbelly was the result as competitiveness and ability to thrive in for political stability, the benefits are being strongly for an extremely fast and convenient the country lost its hunger to compete at the the Fourth Industrial Revolution, with distributed appropriately among Asia’s vast land transport system to be constructed ‘cutting edge’. implications for Melbourne’s status as the populations. relatively quickly. ‘World’s Most Liveable City’. Australia’s GDP is increasingly driven by its Melbourne’s fortunes are starting to plateau. The Economy major cities, with Melbourne and Sydney Pressure to change Australian governance The city (and country) is struggling to Key stakeholders failed to grasp the now the source of 65% of national economic arrangements to deal with these challenges compete with the Asian powers to the north. magnitude of changes that would unfold out output. Australia’s regions perform well due increases as calls for the removal of the Though Melbourne’s liveability and reputation to 2030. They did not adequately prepare to the increase in demand for minerals and country’s states and territories grow louder, were highly respected in the 2010s and early Melbourne and its people for the 21st high-quality agricultural produce from Asia’s while key stakeholders in Melbourne and 2020s, the lack of sufficiently coordinated century, where technological advances would rising middle class. Sydney discuss collaborative governance and policies concerning innovation, technological disrupt and reshape entire industries and the economic arrangements. development, climate change and urban global political and economic centre of gravity With upheavals in large parts of the West, optimisation means that the city’s value would shift decidedly eastwards. Australia has capitalised on its economic proposition is unravelling. links with a thriving Asia. Australia’s top five Melbourne and Australia’s hesitation was in trading partners are all located in the region. Melbourne’s traditionally strong economic stark contrast to the innovative and dynamic sectors have kept the economy afloat, cities in the region, including Singapore, Climate change continues apace and is but a combination of factors have spurred Hong Kong, Shanghai, Bangalore and Seoul, beyond Australia’s influence, but is having great change in governance structures. cities that had an abundance of home- a strong impact on competitiveness in an Skills shortages, a burgeoning population, grown talent, as well as the capacity to Asia-dominated economy as well as on the inadequate transport, housing affordability attract foreign talent, to drive their thriving liveability of Australia’s cities. issues and pollution all affect Melbourne’s economies. These cities, and many others living standards. throughout the region, have transitioned their economies to take advantage of the new Short-termism and a general lack of urgency demand for skills and expertise. With lighter have seen some benefits of compounding regulatory frameworks, firms operating innovations elude Melbourne. Many countries throughout Asia’s booming economies have once considered part of the developing become more competitive as they take world now have much faster internet advantage of automation, the Internet of connections in their capital cities, providing Things, robotisation, artificial intelligence their businesses with a critical competitive and big data analytics. Artificially intelligent advantage. Bitter partisan politics, combined robots now sit on the boards of some of the with a cumbersome and slow-moving world’s leading companies, while robotics bureaucracy, has seen infrastructure projects and smart manufacturing have become delayed or shelved, stifling economic growth commonplace. and productivity. While cities throughout the region build ultra-modern transport Melbourne has slowly become a second- networks quickly and efficiently, Melbourne’s tier economy on the edge of a thriving Asia. key infrastructure projects take years to While its traditional sectors perform soundly, move beyond the ‘feasibility study’ stage. the majority of highly-paid and exciting A comprehensive autonomous transport job opportunities with the world’s leading strategy, and subsequent implementation, is firms are now found to the north. Failure to stalled due to disagreements in Spring Street. embrace the Fourth Industrial Revolution has Sydney grapples with the same issues. meant that Melbourne-based businesses are unable to create as many highly-paid and With no nationally coordinated plan for how rewarding positions, nor is the city able to Melbourne and other cities along Australia’s attract multinational firms. eastern seaboard can grow and compete

40 41 Melbourne’s fortunes are mixed in The entrepreneurial spirit of Australia’s dedicated specialists and practitioners, to struggle to produce enough students this disorientating and highly complex farmers, combined with the harsh realities continue to serve the population well. The equipped with the skills to thrive in a environment. On the one hand, the City of around climate change, has ensured they technological advances in this sector have transformed economy. The country’s ranking Melbourne is depicted as one of the world’s have embraced advanced agricultural been revolutionary, with people starting in primary and secondary mathematics and ‘smart cities’ – data on issues ranging from technologies. Investment in drones, precision to lead longer and healthier lives. Life science dropped significantly in the 2010s traffic congestion to air quality to noise are agriculture, sensors, genetically modified expectancy for Australians is now close and remains just inside the world’s top 30. available in real time, while autonomous crops, robots, and synthetic biology has seen to 100 years. Cures for many debilitating Students throughout the region fare far vehicles operate freely throughout the them compete in delivering their produce illnesses continue to be discovered. better. Singapore, South Korea and Japan CBD. However, due to a lack of resources, to domestic and international markets. Scientists in China have made enormous continue to produce exceptionally talented implementation of these advanced However, prohibitive government regulations progress in developing treatments for a range students, while Chinese students have technologies is not replicated throughout continue to undermine the sector’s capacity of diseases, including polio, Alzheimers improved considerably and are now in the top Greater Melbourne. Furthermore, failure to to achieve its full potential. A suite of and Ebola. Melbourne and Australia largely 10 globally. Melbourne’s universities remain adequately equip the city’s youth and labour unnecessary regulations concerning land remain ‘technology takers’ in this field reputable, but often find it hard to compete force to meet the demands of businesses use, competition policy, foreign investment with advances predominantly occurring in with the top universities in Asia, which have has meant the economy lacks the skills to and food labelling, combined with a lack Japan, India and China. Despite a decline the added advantage of close relationships drive it forward. of adequate investment in transport in funding, the United States continues to with leading industries in their regions. infrastructure, remain factors that inhibit make progress in medical research and Through partnerships with Asian universities, Roles requiring advanced computer skills are further growth. development. As a consequence, there are and with more lucrative positions being found in high demand globally, including big data some limits to Melburnians benefitting from throughout the region, Melbourne has found analysts, information security analysts and Globally, the traditional banks continue the latest technological advances. Wealthy that oftentimes the city’s talented individuals, software developers. Melbourne has not to struggle, and Australia’s banks are no Melburnians with adequate private health who go overseas for a couple of years to be produced enough individuals with these skills exception. Competing with the disruptive cover are receiving advanced treatment but exposed to the best and brightest, end up not to encourage local and foreign firms to invest. ‘fintechs’ is proving to be a near-impossible as the cutting-edge technologies remain returning other than to visit their families and These skills are not just being demanded task for these large institutions. However, relatively expensive and are therefore not friends. within the ICT industry; there is accelerated Melbourne’s vibrant fintech sector – which widely available, some Melburnians relying demand for data analysis skills and ICT emerged in the 2010s – remains globally on the public system can be waiting for A relatively small segment of Melbourne’s literacy by a host of industries including the relevant and competitive, while a range of years for certain advanced treatments. young, mobile and highly-skilled ‘creative media, entertainment, transport, logistics and new and innovative digital platforms have Melbourne’s elderly are seeing more robots class’ has readily embraced the challenges; professional services. advanced the ‘sharing economy’. That said, moving into their homes to help with tasks improving productivity by constantly a series of court rulings stipulating that innovating and bringing various value-adding Melbourne’s economy continues to grow, organisations operating in the ‘gig’ and such as picking up groceries or taking out technologies to market. This adds much but is heavily reliant on its traditional sectors, ‘sharing’ economies must provide benefits to the rubbish. In the biomedical research needed dynamism to Melbourne’s economy. including agriculture, education, tourism and employees, including leave entitlements and sector, failure to attract adequate sources professional services to drive this growth, of funding and investment, combined with superannuation, has dampened growth in Part of a larger trend, leading cities with even though the dead hand of regulation government-imposed immigration restrictions these important parts of the economy. modern ICT infrastructure are witnessing limits their full potential. As large swathes of on skilled migrants, has left once-thriving the rise of the ‘virtual worker’, highly- Asia continue to grow at breakneck speed, The education sector continues to thrive as Melbourne-based businesses unable to skilled professionals working specifically including some of Australia’s key trading Asia grows. While many of Asia’s top tertiary compete globally. This is compounded by for employers located in other advanced partners, these traditional sectors continue to institutions have surpassed Melbourne’s local talent going to Asia, where high wages cities and regions. Importantly, this system service the millions of people moving into the finest in terms of quality and service, the and adequate research funding are more works both ways and allows foreigners to middle class. value of an Australian university degree readily available. remains appealing. Many Asian students stay bid for tasks and jobs in these same cities. In Melbourne’s manufacturing sector, at home to study, but such is the enormity of Melbourne remains an attractive tourist Melbourne, with its relatively slow internet some innovative entrepreneurs and their burgeoning middle class, the demand destination. Visitor numbers from India connectivity, cannot fully capitalise on highly-skilled individuals make use of the for high-quality education services remains and Indonesia have grown markedly, with a this trend. Due to the enormous demand technological advances that have become strong. Many of Melbourne’s most talented steady increase of tourists arriving from other for highly-skilled talent in Asia, Australian commonplace throughout Asia. Big data, students are undertaking their studies at parts of South East Asia. Chinese visitor organisations are forced to pay very high robotics, production line simulation, 3D Asian institutions, while others are opting numbers remain strong. Melbourne’s service salaries to attract and retain talented printing and predictive maintenance are for shorter courses and nanodegrees as offering remains sophisticated, with a wealth employees to survive in the international used in these niche production facilities that companies seek ‘just-in-time’ skills. The rise of cultural events and attractions, while the competitive environment. In the ‘war for set up shop in various pockets of Greater in online learning has further compounded natural beauty outside the city, particularly talent’, Melbourne is fighting with one hand Melbourne. However, the lack of a sufficient the competitive stresses. Melbourne’s along the Great Ocean Road, remains a tied behind its back. network of smart suppliers means that even finest institutions are competing by merging drawcard. these manufacturers find it hard to optimise with universities in Sydney and Brisbane, In a city where the providers of intellectual their processes and opportunities. In addition and creating partnerships with Asian higher Human Capital and physical capital are leaving the ‘rest’ behind, just keeping up requires continuous – and despite Australia’s significantly weaker education providers. Online courses in Melbourne’s population now exceeds six upskilling and lifelong learning for those who currency – the city’s products mainly serve foreign languages flourish. million people. The population growth has have the capacity to do so. Others are simply the domestic market because the major fuelled demand for property, as well as for falling behind. Governments are scrambling markets of Asia are applying penalty tariffs Some of the biggest advances have been a range of consumer goods and services. to find a balance between an open and on products that have a large environmental seen in Melbourne’s healthcare sector. Yet the state’s education system continues footprint. Local facilities, along with the city’s productive economy against the backdrop of

42 43 rising inequality and discontent. Discussions residents and authorities of impending around a universal minimum wage have bushfires, the scale and ferocity of bushfires SCENARIO 3: “METROPOLITAN MISERY” become commonplace in the public debate. around the state have increased, and they are now commonplace in spring and summer. Infrastructure and Urban Optimisation Sizeable city resources, including human and After years of increasing strain on cities’ financial, are called upon to help respond to abilities to house growing populations, the these regular disasters. In 2021, the Yarra last five years have seen the compounding River flooded; causing widespread damage to effect of technological innovations in property and businesses. The sizeable cost has divided the community about who should smart and forward-thinking cities result in I. Technological • Linear rate of innovation pay for the mitigation efforts. Since that solutions to some of the critical challenges Revolution around transport and the associated housing episode, flood walls and flood gates have • Limited adoption affordability issues. been installed to help avoid such a scenario from reoccurring. Coastal suburbs along Port • Limited and fragmented merging of Although Melbourne has not kept pace with Phillip Bay endure regular storm surges, while physical, digital and biological spheres the leading cities of the world that have long-lasting periods of drought are common. become urban laboratories and centres Despite the reactivation of Melbourne’s of innovation, Melbourne’s inner suburbs desalination plant, water scarcity remains continue to attract people and foreign a permanent threat. The social impacts of II. Western • The West retains economic and political investment for its relatively stable business climate change are becoming pronounced. Leadership leadership climate, as well as rich cultural and sporting Mental health issues, chronic disease and offering. Housing affordability, whether alcohol misuse, have become more common • Post WW II system of multilateral purchasing or renting, remains a headache and widespread among the community. institutions remains largely intact for Melbourne’s residents and policy makers. With investments from Asia largely geared Melbourne’s uneven economy has towards apartment complexes, many young compounded the inner versus outer city Australians are only able to enter the property divide, with gated communities now a Technological market through apartment living. common sight. Strong rhetoric and higher Revolution resource allocation have failed to truly fix the Melbourne continues to build on the problem. city’s edge, where land is available, but infrastructure arrangements are not. On the positive side of the ledger, ASIA’S BARGAIN This is resulting in ever-increasing spatial Melbourne’s arts and cultural scene remains URBAN RUST inequality in Melbourne. Spatial inequality is vibrant and continues to attract many BASEMENT also reflected in the limited access to, and tourists. Regular high-quality theatre and participation in, cultural activities in the outer musical productions remain a feature of the Western Eastern suburbs. city, while its vibrant café and restaurant Leadership Leadership culture remains peerless throughout the Implementing just-in-time deliveries is country. Melbourne continues to host one METROPOLITAN RIDING out of the question for most businesses. of the four major tennis grand slams, the MISERY THE WAVE Congestion still costs Melbourne’s economy Australian Open, while the annual Formula enormously as businesses struggle to One Grand Prix at Albert Park and the Spring compete in international markets. Residents Racing Carnival remain prominent features on and businesses are paying inflated prices for the events calendar. Technological services that companies in other cities seem Evolution to be able to deliver seamlessly. In an Asian Century with exponential rates of innovation, Melbourne’s value proposition for business is inadequate and costly.

Liveability The effects of climate change are being felt acutely across the city. Lack of green spaces, particularly in Melbourne’s west, is causing worsened heat island effects in these neighbourhoods. The rise in heat waves has increased the number of extreme fire weather days. Despite the deployment of technology which detects and warns

44 45 THE ROAD TO 2030… (SOEs) were flawed, while authorities failed AUSTRALIA IN 2030 MELBOURNE IN 2030 to successfully re-structure the debt of local The social and political polarisation and authorities and the SOEs. Domestic tensions By 2017, Australia had marked 26 Governance election of ‘non-establishment’ governments led to increased tensions among Asian consecutive years of economic growth. Prominent analysts were concerned about in the United States and some European countries, primarily concerning commercial However, that long run of success and the potential dangers of technological countries heralded a period of protectionism and territorial disputes. To compound prosperity abruptly ended in the early 2020s. disruption to Melbourne’s economic in considerable parts of the West. Less matters, with less fresh water per capita Australian trade severely diminished as competitiveness. However, incremental trade with the West slowed the growth of than any other continent, disputes over this our key Asian trading partners contracted technological change ensured that these many Asian economies. In the early 2020s, vital resource raised tensions between the economically and turned inwards. Australia’s fears did not materialise and the city the detrimental effects of a more closed countries along the Mekong and Indus rivers. economy is severely affected as it is not continued to play to its traditional strengths. and protectionist economic climate led able to compete with resurgent transatlantic That all changed in 2019 with the Chinese to the realisation that such policies were Reduced international trade produced an collaboration. Debt Crisis. Since the 2008 Global Financial counterproductive. This realisation ignited a economic climate unfavourable towards Crisis (GFC), China went on a credit Disruptive technologies and innovative new period in which a return to cooperation rapid development of new technologies. This binge that saw debt rise twice as fast as advances are slowed by a global popular and integration was made possible. The was severely compounded by persistent its economic growth. With its financial backlash to “job-stealing technology” and European Union strengthened its commercial cyber-security issues and scandals around stability tied to the stability of the Chinese cyber security concerns. Delays in adapting and security ties with existing members and technological developments. The cross- Communist Party, no efforts were spared wide-ranging technologies that would expanded its membership further eastward. border sharing of knowledge came to a halt, to keep things “under control.” As a result, underpin the Fourth Industrial Revolution The Transatlantic Trade and Investment with contrasting international regulatory the severity of the crisis meant that much have slowed economic progress. The Partnership, a trade agreement between the environments making development and of the 2020s was lost trying to prevent the slowdown in Asia also leads to a significant EU and the US, was signed and ratified, while marketisation of new technologies extremely population’s anger from boiling over and reduction in inbound investment. Australia’s the Trans-Pacific Partnership involving 12 costly and difficult. The prospect of robots maintaining a hold on power. Across the traditional role as the gateway to Asia has Pacific Rim countries (excluding China) was and software taking over jobs and causing continent, the Asian ‘miracle’ quickly turned disappeared, while global investments eventually renegotiated and ratified. mass unemployment led to a popular to Asian ‘misery’. backlash against such technologies. In are largely redirected to Europe and North In many Asian countries, diminished the US, public pressure forced authorities America. With Australia’s economic fortunes closely international trade aggravated structural and to ban the implementation of automated tied to Asian growth, Australia went into With Australia’s economic fortunes closely fundamental flaws in their economies and trucks, noting that trucking was the biggest a severe and sustained recession. Key tied to Asian growth, the country has gone political systems, resulting in a prolonged occupation in 29 states and one of the sectors of Melbourne’s economy suffered, into a severe and sustained recession. Key period of social and economic unrest and biggest in the country. Regulations hindering with education and financial and corporate sectors of Melbourne’s economy are dealt instability. Authoritarian leaders in Beijing, automation and other disruptive innovations services among the most affected. The serious blows; education and corporate and for example, failed to reform the economy dampened investor confidence in advanced plunge of the Australian dollar meant that financial services are among the hardest hit. due to fear of political instability. The hoped- technological sectors. businesses and government scrambled for transition from a production-driven to to exploit opportunities in other markets, Climate change continues apace and is a consumer-led Chinese economy did not not only in Europe and the United States, beyond Australia’s influence, but has a strong go as planned. State-owned enterprises but also the Middle East, Africa and Latin impact on the country’s infrastructure, and America. However, realigning Australia’s the liveability of its cities; a slow take-up export focus did not materialise overnight of technology to mitigate its effects is and unemployment reached new heights, compounding the problem. particularly among Melbourne’s youth. Australia’s economic output is increasingly Political pressure grew at all levels. Sound driven from its major cities, with Melbourne policy initiatives to boost economic and Sydney now the source of 55% of GDP. growth were needed, but none were Politics and regulation has bedevilled forthcoming. Fringe party representatives Australia’s economic progress, with and independents blocked a raft of proposals implications for Melbourne’s status as the arguing that they were a threat to the natural ‘World’s Most Liveable City’. environment or undermined the rights of workers. As the country became increasingly Pressure to change Australian governance insecure and polarised, prominent voices arrangements to deal with these challenges began calling for changes to how the country increases and populism is on the rise. was governed. It was the Queen’s passing Australia votes to become a republic with its that ignited this change; Australia voted to own head of state. become a republic with its own head of state.

As part of this new arrangement, states and territories were abolished, while city authorities were granted greater control over their own destiny. The City of Melbourne

46 47 and surrounding local government authorities developments in the agriculture sector, and the United Kingdom are injecting ample inhabitants. It has become a challenge now play a greater role in managing like the one witnessed during the ‘Green competition into an already contested for Melbourne’s businesses and other economic and strategic development, Revolution’ in the twentieth century. international market. Fortunately, the strong organisations to attract and retain talent due policing, emergency services, transport and However, Melbourne’s agricultural sector reputation of Melbourne’s institutions to the difficult economic times. land use planning. has been forced to innovate to improve remains an important competitive advantage agricultural yields and mitigate the effects of for the city. Biomedical research is one of the few sectors While the city’s once lauded living standards climate change. Reduced rainfall and higher still able to attract international researchers, have eroded, it is hoped that significant temperatures in Victoria have led to more The tourism sector is in a very different particularly the talented Asians who see changes in governance arrangements frequent and intense droughts and bush fires, shape from the 2010s; Chinese visitor little reason to stay in their home countries. will help meet the challenges. Melbourne as well as greater stress on water resources. numbers, which used to be responsible for Talent from North America and Europe is increases its ties with cities across the globe Slowing growth in the demand for protein- over a third of the sector’s revenue, have mostly here on a secondment from sister to develop and implement best practice in rich foods in Asia has not led to a price drop slowed markedly. Although not yet nearly cities across these continents. Other sectors, areas ranging from urban optimisation to in agricultural commodities as a changing recovered, the sector’s diversification however, are finding it much harder to find homelessness. The Australian President climate has led to shortages in other parts strategy is starting to pay off, especially the necessary talent, despite the city’s very works closely with city authorities to roll out of the globe. Victoria’s produce continues to given the lower Australian dollar, which high youth unemployment rates. A persistent major capital works programs and deliver attract a premium because of its healthy and has made Australia a more attractive long- and growing mismatch between the needs more efficient services. clean qualities. term destination for Europeans and North of employers and the skills of the workforce American retirees who enjoy the pleasant has appeared over the last couple of years. The Economy Financial and corporate services have climate, and relative ease of travel. Climate An alarmingly high number of companies The Fourth Industrial Revolution turns out to experienced significant headwinds. The change however has impacted the sector. report having positions open for more than be more of an evolution. The technological slowdown in the Australian economy Higher temperatures are extending the six months. With many of Melbourne’s young disruption witnessed in the 2010s turned because of the reversed fortunes in Asia peak and shoulder seasons, but bushfires professionals venturing overseas, the city’s chaotic. Starting with the cyber meddling of has seen many businesses struggle. and droughts are negatively impacting talent management strategy needs a rethink. the 2016 US elections, cyber security quickly Furthermore, Asian investments in ecosystems in and around Melbourne, became a major concern for governments, Melbourne – particularly in the property including the ski resorts. The economic headwinds are making it business and society at large. The public is market – have cooled significantly. While hard to reach agreement on funding levels in no mood to step into cars controlled by the superannuation industry has had to Healthcare and biomedical research is for primary and secondary education. All computers or to invest in businesses reliant report disappointing returns for some time still an asset for Melbourne’s economy. the while Australia’s international student on networked algorithms to succeed. because of their exposure to Australian The Parkville precinct is one of the world’s rankings in primary and secondary school and international share markets, the leading medical research clusters that continue to drop. The sharp reduction in the Many of Melbourne’s traditionally strong establishment of the modern Super industry attracts talent from domestic universities as number of foreign students has forced many sectors are overly reliant on perpetual growth in the 1980s and 1990s is still seen as a well as overseas. Commercialisation is still of the city’s tertiary institutions to rescind in Asia. Often viewed as ‘the gateway to visionary initiative that serves Australia and a challenge, given Australia’s relatively small some of their courses. All the signs are Asia’, Australia was no longer considered a Melbourne well, given the population’s ever- market, but the sectoral ties developed over of a city that is not heading in a promising viable option for many multinational firms as increasing life expectancy. the years with some of the leading clusters direction. their confidence in Asian markets cooled. in Boston, San Francisco and Cambridge Mass production processes still take place Though the education and training sector are allowing research to continue. The city’s Infrastructure and Urban Optimisation in Asia, but productivity gains have not in Melbourne remains highly regarded, Asia’s public and private healthcare systems are The slowdown in Asia exposed the continued as squabbling Asian governments economic malaise has precipitated a vast still among the best in the world and have highly leveraged households of Australia; throw up protectionist barriers, affecting reduction in student enrolments from that become a centre of excellence for age- record levels of household debt, including the operation of their sophisticated supply region. Although the sector is working hard related healthcare – an important feature mortgages, credit cards, overdrafts and chain networks. In this environment, many to attract students from other continents, of the city given the ageing populations in personal loans, have caused the housing of Melbourne’s sectors experience serious the diversification of international student Australia and across many parts of the world. bubble to burst. Cheap credit has come back headwinds, with only a few able to stay enrolments is not materialising overnight to bite Australians now that the economy competitive. given that its prior efforts and investments Human Capital is unable to support continued growth in primarily targeted Asian students. With Due to the lower than expected uptake of household incomes. While property prices The manufacturing sector experiences over two-thirds of international students technology in societies across the world, have plummeted, high youth unemployment mixed fortunes. On the one hand, the historically coming from Asia, the sector the feared segregation of the job market levels mean many young people live with troubles in Asia saw some production return has had to undergo a dramatic realignment; between the ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’ did their parents well into their 30s. With the to more stable environments, including Melbourne’s universities have come together not eventuate as strongly as anticipated. pressure on Melbourne’s housing stock Melbourne. The low Australian dollar helps to pool resources and offerings to better However, highly skilled professionals still tapering off due to the slower population as well, but mass production does not return. coordinate and optimise the city’s higher command a premium in an open and globally growth and declining Asian investment, The lower dollar was partly caused by the education value proposition to prospective competitive economy where companies developments on the city’s periphery have severe slowdown in the resources sector, international students. This is seeing some rely on the quality of their intellectual and ground to a halt. Spatial inequality remains which had tied its fortunes to growth in the successes, but it is still a long way from creative capital. Melbourne’s population a concern. Lack of adequate infrastructure emerging economies of Asia. replacing the lost enrolments from Asia. has not grown as fast as was predicted by and job opportunities in Melbourne’s once- Furthermore, the relatively affordable online demographers in the 2010s – the economic booming growth corridors of Casey, Hume, The slower and fragmented technological educational offerings from the world’s top difficulties have attracted far less skilled Melton, Whittlesea and Wyndham, now see advances preclude any ground-breaking educational institutions in the United States migrants and the city now has 5.5 million these areas suffering urban decay.

48 49 The building of transport infrastructure Rising levels of drug and alcohol misuse, as has not caught up with the city’s rapid well as homelessness across the greater SCENARIO 4: “RIDING THE WAVE” population growth of the 2010s and early metropolitan region, have contributed to a 2020s. Congestion on the roads is costing surge in crime. Fear and anger is sweeping the economy more than $9 billion per year, the city with more Melburnians than ever while the associated stress on people’s lives being affected by crime, either directly or is compounding the problem. The city’s indirectly through family and friends. The public transport infrastructure does not fare costs are significant, both for the economy much better. Lack of adequate investment to and society in general. People now weigh the meet the demands of the growing population risks of going out to certain places, especially I. Technological • Linear rate of innovation has meant the train system is severely at night, or fear talking to strangers. Property Evolution strained, with services to the outer suburbs damage has increased, forcing many victims, • Limited adoption significantly reduced early in the evening. and even non-victims, to spend what disposable income they have on security • Limited and fragmented merging of The impacts of climate change are becoming measures, whether in the form of extra physical, digital and biological spheres a real headache for policymakers. Extreme lighting, stronger locks or security alarms. weather events, including floods, have Government authorities are also having to become a recurring feature in the suburbs spend limited funds on additional security along the Bay and the Yarra, forcing measures. In this environment, intolerance of II. Eastern • The East attains economic and political government and local councils to use limited criminals, particularly foreign-born criminals, Leadership leadership funds to fight the elements. This is causing is at an all-time high as large segments of heated community debate about who should society demand harsher sentencing for those • Post WW II system of multilateral foot the bill for the costly mitigation efforts. convicted of summary offences. institutions undergoes significant change The contracting economy is impacting our ability to deal with the various problems. Sporting facilities are not maintained and are The lack of funds for the upkeep of the city’s becoming dilapidated, while the inner-city’s green spaces is causing worsened heat arts and culture scene is a shade of its former Technological island effects. In the outer suburbs, residents self. Government funding cuts, along with a Revolution remain inside during the warmer months and sharp decline in discretionary spending, have choose to drive whenever they go out – even caused damage to many industry players for their local coffee. and left the scene floundering. Similarly, the once-thriving restaurant scene – famous for ASIA’S BARGAIN Liveability its breadth, quality and experimentation – has URBAN RUST No longer the ‘World’s Most Liveable City’, seen many eateries go out of business. BASEMENT what was long considered unimaginable is starting to become reality; Melbourne’s Western Eastern liveability is in rapid decline. Unlike Detroit, Leadership Leadership which always knew that it was heavily dependent on the automobile industry, METROPOLITAN RIDING Melbourne did not sufficiently appreciate that MISERY THE WAVE its fortunes were so closely linked to that of its northern neighbours. Technological Evolution

50 51 THE ROAD TO 2030… Western leaders were chastised by their AUSTRALIA IN 2030 The status quo continues for governance eastern counterparts for their cavalier arrangements at a time of profound geo- Social and political polarisation in Western approach to global trade. As it turned out, By 2017, Australia had marked 26 strategic change. countries had a crippling effect on their the woes in the West were a great motivator consecutive years of economic growth, economies. Unstable markets drove for the (emerging) economies in Asia to which continued at a slow and steady pace capital towards the East, while a lack of continue to grow. China effectively reformed out to 2030. MELBOURNE IN 2030 coordination between Western governments its financial system and delivered further Governance contributed to the relative decline in global economic growth. India streamlined its Australia’s economic output is increasingly clout. Following the shock of ‘Brexit’ in regulatory environment, attracting greater driven from its major cities, and Melbourne For a while, several local observers were 2016, repeated terrorist atrocities across key amounts of foreign capital. Indonesia and Sydney are now the source of 55% of concerned about the potential dangers of European Union member states, combined invested heavily in infrastructure and national GDP. technological disruption to Melbourne’s with mass refugee flows into the union, diversified its economy, while many South economic competitiveness. While these fears With the rapid decline of the West and strongly polarised electorates across the East Asian nations implemented anti- have not materialised, Asia’s unrelenting rise the rise of the East, Australia is somewhat continent. The Italian Banking Crisis of 2018 corruption measures which drove their has seen it emerge as the epicentre of the conflicted. Economically, it has capitalised on proved to be the final straw, resulting in a economies forward. Top-down orchestrated global economy. For seventeen centuries its links with a thriving Asia, but Australians swift collapse of the European Union and schemes in many Asian countries fostered – up until the first industrial revolution – are still coming to grips with the new world ushering in a painful and turbulent time for closer cooperation between businesses, Asia was responsible for approximately order. individuals, businesses and governments tertiary institutions and governments. A two-thirds of global economic output. By across the continent. Combined with the longer-term investment focus provided fertile 2030 that historical equilibrium has been As economic weight shifts, so does strategic ascendancy of the Trump Doctrine in the ground for Asian economies to successfully restored; home to nearly 60 per cent of weight. The United States has effectively United States, in which the ‘leader of the continue their production-driven models, the world’s population and two-thirds of disengaged from Asia. The resulting vacuum free world’ retracted from the world order while their growing (urbanised) middle the global middle class, this is an Asia has been filled by China, which is increasingly it helped to create, the period of Western classes concurrently became ‘mature’ that is prosperous and confident. As such, creating facts on the ground at several dominance seems to have been a case of consumers, which provided sustained the tyranny of distance – having shaped strategic locations in the region based on historical exceptionalism. economic stimulus. Much like the western Australia’s history since early settlement historical claims. This has led to the creation response, government regulation stifled the – has been supplanted by the promise of of a new intra-Asian alliance to balance Protectionist policies in the West contributed high uptake of new technologies throughout proximity. The opportunities in Asia are Chinese power. to slower economic growth and a decline Asia. Robotics, automation and artificial of historical proportions. However, having in technological innovation. The broad to a certain extent been insulated from intelligence posed a major risk to the social Realising the vast dependence on the regulatory framework in Europe ended competition for a long time, significant parts stability in these societies. Government Chinese market, Australian state and federal following the EU’s collapse and was replaced of Melbourne’s economy are now also in officials feared social disintegration, with governments are looking at diversifying by disparate regulatory environments across the middle of the world’s most lucrative and revolution a real possibility, should millions of trading arrangements regionally and globally. the continent, which only seemed to hinder competitive regional playing field. people be forced out of the workforce and be The decision is timely; Asia’s economic technological advances and adoption. A unable to make a living. strength, combined with rising levels of lack of cooperation between knowledge Victorian and Australian authorities are sophistication in many economic sectors, institutions, businesses and governments responding to meet these challenges. has made China, India and other key regional lowered the rate of innovation and created a The completion of a suite of “open” trade economies more competitive and less ‘brain drain’ to the East. Chaotic innovation, agreements with many regional economies, inclined to purchase Australian services. cyber security concerns, and safety scandals including China, Japan, South Korea, further caused the West to create barriers Indonesia and India, enhanced the ability The Fourth Industrial Revolution is more of an to the adoption of new and disruptive of local businesses to compete regionally. evolution, and the technological disruption far technologies. The Victorian government played a role in less than predicted. this development – doubling the number of Climate change continues apace and is trade missions regionally and, in conjunction beyond Australia’s influence, but has a strong with Austrade, establishing a One Belt, One impact on the country’s infrastructure and Road Department to advise and help facilitate the liveability of its cities. A slow take up of growth opportunities. technology to mitigate its effects compounds While closer engagement and integration the problem. with Asian markets presents enormous Some sectors do relatively well in this opportunities, governments at all levels environment, including construction, recognise the need to avoid becoming healthcare and biomedical research, subservient to powerful Asian economies. agribusiness, tourism and aspects of With the aid of state and federal education and training. governments, businesses now pursue greater opportunities in Africa, as well as Central and Politics and regulation however continue to South America. The signing of Free Trade bedevil Australia’s competitiveness. Agreements with Nigeria, Chile and Mexico certainly encouraged this. Melbourne’s

52 53 wealth management and education providers The building and construction sector see Australia’s universities as a reliable explore. However, the sector is contending serve a growing proportion of these markets, in Melbourne is doing very well. The partner in their efforts to accommodate the with the increased effects of climate change, while our agricultural products and wine are enormously wealthy upper and upper- enormous domestic demand. Despite the resulting in significant biodiversity loss. obtaining greater market share. middle classes in Asia continue to invest in strong competition from the ‘old’ and ‘new’ Furthermore, the building of accommodation Australia’s capital cities’ housing markets as world’s top institutions that are increasingly is not keeping up with the enormous demand The City of Melbourne remains an active a way of diversifying their vast investment using their brand names online to fight in from Asia and, similar to the situation with member of the C70 – a network of the portfolios. The associated local services the previously less contested markets of food prices, this is making mid and high-level world’s leading cities – to not only help sector has also enjoyed the benefits of Asia, Melbourne’s universities have carved accommodation in Melbourne practically address the impacts of climate change, but to riding this wave. At the same time, these out a lucrative niche. Through mergers with unaffordable. Camping holidays are growing collaborate on the implementation of ‘smart investments have effectively shut out local other Australian universities, as well as in popularity for Australian families. city’ technologies. first home buyers and young families from partnerships with Asian universities, they the property market in desirable locations have successfully aligned their practices with Human Capital The Economy such as the CBD and the eastern suburbs. the demands of Asian students. Mass automation has not led to the feared As the Fourth Industrial Revolution turned out segregation of the job market between the to be more of an evolution, the anticipated Melbourne’s healthcare sector is The local financial services sector did ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’, although highly technological disruption did not eventuate performing relatively well. The strong not capitalise on the Asian opportunities skilled professionals are earning high salaries to the extent predicted. However, the world traditions of the local public and private to the extent that the education sector did. in an open and highly competitive Asia-Pacific of 2030 looks very different to the one of healthcare sector mean that it is well set While the domestic banking market has regional economy, where companies rely on fifteen years ago. The shift to Asia was up to serve a largely domestic and ageing been good for a long time and continues to the quality of their intellectual and creative on the cards, but the profoundness of the market. Nevertheless, the earlier ambition provide a solid customer base, sophisticated capital. Despite not being the ‘World’s Most shift was underestimated, perhaps because to make Melbourne a centre of excellence Asian competitors with deep pockets and a Liveable City’ anymore, Melbourne regularly Australia has always been a part of the for medical tourism has not eventuated due long-term view are successfully attracting features in the top ten and is an attractive Commonwealth and viewed the world from to the enormous improvements that Asian Australian customers. The margins the place to live and work, particularly for skilled a ‘Western’ perspective, or perhaps because healthcare industries have made in the last domestic banking industry once enjoyed are professionals who can afford to live in the country underestimated the impact fifteen years. In fact, the improvements gone. Similarly, Melbourne’s superannuation the city’s most attractive suburbs, where that Asia’s rise would have on its economic have been so significant that this is industry did not fully capitalise on schooling and amenities are well provided competitiveness. affecting Australia’s healthcare industry in opportunities throughout Asia. However, a for. A good portion of Melbourne’s young unexpected ways as many domestic health protective domestic regulatory environment professionals who venture overseas – mainly Take manufacturing for example: for insurers now send patients overseas to allows Australian firms to hold their ground to Asia – tend to come back after gaining many years, companies from “advanced” cheaper and better hospitals in Asia. India’s in the local market. Nevertheless, self- valuable experience to be closer to family economies had been comfortable hospitals, for example, use learnings from managed super funds are increasingly looking and friends. Given the prolonged difficulties outsourcing their low value-add production the domestic market to carve out a strong to participate in Asian investment vehicles in Europe, migration from the ‘old’ continent to emerging markets in Asia – the “world’s market for medical tourism. Often referred that can attract some of the world’s leading has again picked up. factory” – where labour was abundant to as ‘frugal’ or ‘downward’ innovation, talent. and cheap. However, starting in China’s they are doing more for less by using Despite having a proud history and tradition, coastal areas, the Asian economies have economies of scale and assembly-line The agricultural industry is one sector that the Victorian public and private education relentlessly moved up the value chain techniques to re-engineer how heart surgery has witnessed innovative advances due to a system has seen a slow but steady drop and, given their often different (family) is performed while significantly improving combination of the entrepreneurial spirit of in global educational rankings, particularly ownership structures, the companies in the quality of the procedure at a vastly lower the Australian farmer and, importantly, the when compared to regional competitors. these economies can take a longer-term cost. Melbourne’s biomedical research ever-increasing effects of climate change. Asian cultures, drawing on Confucian view of growth and investment. This allows capabilities are still well-regarded and provide Arable land around Melbourne is not only ethics, respect and value education both in them to focus on building leading positions the city with a strong niche sector. However, under pressure from a changing climate, but terms of being inherently worthwhile and as opposed to maximising (quarterly) Asian economies have caught up and are also from the ever-expanding city. Australian as a vehicle to gain status and wealth. This earnings for shareholders. Having cut their increasingly attracting talented Australian farmers are finding it hard to keep up with results in a focused environment where teeth in difficult operating environments, researchers to earn a better living, while demand. Not only are there more mouths to teachers – compared to those in Western these companies are more agile and have a being exposed to cutting-edge research. feed in Australia, but Asia’s rise means that countries – are held in high esteem and the natural advantage in the other fast-growing Australian produce – which has an excellent expectation is that, with effort and ability, (emerging) markets. Having streamlined The education and training sector has reputation for clean and healthy qualities – is success is possible. The worrying trend of its regulatory environment, India – with its continued to enjoy the benefits of Asia’s able to command a significant premium. This slipping educational standards back home large, youthful population – has become rise. The value of an Australian university sustained windfall is great news for Victoria’s is compounded by the fact that strong the next big destination for manufacturing. degree is still well-regarded, and with its agribusinesses, but is causing considerable population growth in Melbourne’s outer Mass production, as well as advanced rising middle-classes, Asian institutions – strain on the poorer communities, which suburbs is often not matched by the provision manufacturing, is dominated by the Asian many of which now set a global standard spend a disproportionately large part of their of sufficient educational infrastructure. economies. Smaller scale manufacturing – are finding it hard to keep up with the income trying to buy fresh produce. still has its place in Australia and Melbourne; enormous domestic demand. As a result, Infrastructure and Urban Optimisation Melbourne’s tertiary education sector has Australia, Victoria and Melbourne are seen as however, the return of mass employment With a growing population and greater continued to profit from Asian students, great tourist destinations, particularly for in manufacturing has not taken place and is competition from Asian investors and particularly through the links that have Asian tourists, as the country has become a unlikely to do so again. wealthy Australians, housing affordability has been forged with the Asian institutions that relatively inexpensive destination for them to

54 55 8 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

continued to create great societal concern. Liveability For over 30 years, the Committee for The Committee for Melbourne would like In the late 2010s, the Federal Government Melbourne may not rank at the top of the Melbourne’s influence has been built to thank every individual involved in the belatedly made housing affordability a global liveability rankings anymore, but on the breadth, depth and calibre of our Taskforce as well as the many subject priority. However, many young Melburnians remains a good place to live for those who membership base. It is this collective matter experts who generously donated looking to purchase a home believe it is too can afford it. Housing affordability has strength that has been a major driving force their time to provide expertise and little, too late. State and federal leadership become an ever-increasing headache. The behind the development and progress of our perspective. on policy direction, strategic planning, land ‘Asian Century’ has seen enormous wealth city. Below is an alphabetical list of the availability, taxation, infrastructure and generated and accumulated with sizeable Over the course of the Melbourne 4.0 contributing individuals and members. workforce capacity has not been delivered. chunks of it finding its way into Melbourne’s process, we have captured the knowledge inner-city and eastern property markets. The city continues to offer great amenities and expertise of our diverse membership. Property prices in these suburbs have for all tastes and preferences. Melbourne’s skyrocketed and trickled down to surrounding museums, art galleries and music festivals Steering Monique Dawson Toby Kent areas. It is virtually impossible for local first continue to add to the cultural atmosphere Committee Chief Executive Officer Chief Resilience Officer home buyers and young families to enter the for which the city is renowned. Vibrant Metropolitan Economic City of Melbourne property market. As a result, Melbourne’s pedestrian precincts with shops, restaurants, Development, DEDJTR rental market has experienced enormous apartments and offices located in the heart Prof Linda Kristjanson AO demand, forcing the government to regularly of Melbourne and along the inner-city edges Krystal Evans Vice-Chancellor review the Residential Tenancies Act to continue to attract young professionals from Chief Executive Officer Swinburne University assist renters with sufficient longer-term around Australia and the world. Sporting BioMelbourne Network housing security. lovers remain very well catered for in Martine Letts Melbourne. The MCG had a roof installed in Lorenz Grollo Chief Executive Officer Aside from the issue of housing affordability, Chief Executive Officer Committee for Melbourne the late 2020s, as well as a monorail linking the city’s economy underpins an acceptable it directly to Richmond Station and Flinders Grollo Group standard of living for most of its residents. Dr Magnus Moglia Street Station. Board Director However, as with most democracies, Committee for Melbourne Research Team Leader politics often gets in the way of effective Overall though, access and mobility remain CSIRO decision-making. Seeing the success of the a concern. With underinvestment in Asian economies, national governments are Project Kevin Begg Sam Rowland transport infrastructure to manage growth, increasingly criticised for having given up on Group Technical Services Lead – Market Leader – Property accessibility for individuals and families living real reforms. City governments are stepping Precinct Design and Urban Design and Buildings Victoria in Melbourne’s outer suburbs has become into this role and are considered as more GHD GHD difficult. For all the progress in Melbourne’s effective institutions for change. heart and inner suburbs, a spatial divide Monica George Ella Simmons remains in the service offering between the Due to rising living standards throughout Manager – Urban Development Law Graduate inner city and outer suburbs. The inner city Asia, immigration from regional countries GHD Hall & Wilcox is highly valued for work and living, in large has slowed, but – reminiscent of the post- part because of government investment over WW II period – more Europeans are making Kylie Ling Brett Van Duppen decades on public transport and community their way to Melbourne. The city’s ability to Manager – Infrastructure Advisory Policy & Research Officer services. More prominent public voices are effectively integrate different nationalities EY Committee for Melbourne commenting on rising locational disadvantage has once again proven invaluable, with the in which education, employment and city’s social cohesion a shining light for cities Antony Maubach-Howard Julian Vido community services are becoming ever less of comparable size. Diverse and multicultural, Urban Designer Employment & Industrial accessible for outer suburban residents. the city is a welcoming place with a relatively GHD Relations Lawyer good safety track record. It continues to Hall & Wilcox State and federal governments have explored offer exceptional sporting, recreational, and various avenues to fund upgrades to cultural experiences. The Australian Open, Project Sander van Amelsvoort Consulting Jester infrastructure which has deteriorated steadily. the Australian Grand Prix and the Melbourne Leader Director, Policy & Research partner Budgetary constraints, combined with the Cup continue to provide the city with a strong Committee for Melbourne limited public willingness to pay the taxes sporting brand. necessary for infrastructure upgrades, mean that public-private partnerships are common Having been wedged between the East across Greater Melbourne. Fortunately, and the West since its founding, Australia’s Melbourne’s relative substandard internet potential is once again the envy of many. connectivity has not cost the city as much as anticipated in competitive terms.

56 57 Taskforce AECOM KJA The Taskforce interviewed many subject Members Adshel La Trobe University matter experts who generously donated their time to provide their expertise and Airshuttle Commuter Express McKinsey & Company perspective. Arts Centre Melbourne Melbourne City Mission

Arup Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre Expert Meredith Angwin Alison Frame Ashurst Melbourne Recital Centre Interviewees Partner | Advisory Deputy Secretary, Planning Policy, Strategy AusNet Services Melbourne Water EY and Governance Department of Planning & Environment Bank of Melbourne Metro Trains Melbourne Paul Bassat (NSW) Bates Smart Monash University Co-Founder Bendigo Bank NORTH Link Square Peg Capital Roberto Garcia Senior Manager – HSE | Climate Change and BioMelbourne Network Nous Group Hugh Bradlow Sustainability Services British Consulate-General, Melbourne Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre Chief Scientist EY Cabrini Foundation Pitcher Partners Telstra Michael Georgeff Charter Keck Cramer PwC Australia Kathy Coultas Founder and Chief Executive Officer City of Melbourne Royal Consulate General of Denmark Director, ICT / Tech Sector Development Precedence Health Care City of Port Phillip Royal Automobile Club of Victoria DEDJTR Andrew Gordon Citywide RMIT University Gerard Dalbosco Partner-Cyber, Information Technology and Clayton Utz RPS Managing Partner – Melbourne Services Commonwealth Bank Sofitel Melbourne On Collins EY PwC Australia Board Director Corrs Chambers Westgarth Spolib Committee for Melbourne Mark Gregory CSIRO Swinburne University Associate Professor, School of Engineering Destination Melbourne Telstra Michael de Soyza Cluster Senior Manager | Climate and Sustainability East End Theatre District The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ RMIT University Services EY The Big Issue EY Allan Gyngell Fed Square The University of Melbourne Adjunct Professor, Crawford School of Tamara DiMattina GHD The Walter & Eliza Hall Institute Public Policy; Director, Crawford Australian Founder of Medical Research Leadership Forum Grant Thornton The New Joneses Australian National University Grimshaw Urbis Alan Dupont Grollo Group Victoria University Terrence Jeyaretnam Adjunct Professor of International Security Victorian Health Promotion Foundation Partner | Climate Change & Sustainability Hall & Wilcox University of New South Wales (VicHealth) Services HASSELL EY Victorian Planning Authority Guy Edgar Jo Fisher Executive Yarra Valley Water Senior Manager | Climate Change & Elizabeth Kinkade Keolis Downer (Yarra Trams) Sustainability Services Youth Projects Executive Director, Planning Policy EY Department of Planning, NSW

Gareth Evans Joseph Lawrence Chancellor Director, Industry Partnerships Australian National University Monash University

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