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MELBOURNE 4.0 REPORT THE NEXT INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION FROM THE CHAIR AND CEO 1ST INDUSTRIAL Steam, water, REVOLUTION mechanical production 1780s 2ND INDUSTRIAL Electricity, REVOLUTION division of labour, mass production 1870s 3RD INDUSTRIAL Electronics, IT, REVOLUTION automated production 1960s 4TH INDUSTRIAL Cyber-physical systems REVOLUTION Melbourne is one of the best places in changes will be compounded by fragility in We’re fortunate to draw on your collective Today the world to live, work and do business. geopolitics, in our natural environment, and wisdom to shape civic discussion and in the global business landscape. advocate for policy outcomes to make sure One of the reasons we’re in this enviable that no Melburnian is left behind. position is that a group of passionate Against this background of change which Melburnians created the Committee for will shape our economy, the Committee We look forward to continuing to work Melbourne 30 years ago with one purpose: established the Melbourne 4.0 Taskforce. with you as Melbourne navigates these to shape a better future for our city. Harnessing the knowledge and insight of uncharted waters to retain our mantle as a our diverse membership base, the Taskforce city of international significance. Today, our appeal as a leading international has formed a credible policy agenda for city is being challenged – this time by the our city to prepare for the challenges and “ We stand on the brink of a technological revolution that will profound changes known as the Fourth opportunities facing our future economy and Industrial Revolution. The Revolution marks society. fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and relate to one another. the next period in humanity’s progress, which will be characterised by a fusion of We’d like to thank everyone involved in the Scott Tanner Martine Letts In its scale, scope, and complexity, the transformation will be unlike our physical, digital and biological worlds. Taskforce. Your knowledge and expertise Chair CEO anything humankind has experienced before…It is disrupting almost has been invaluable in forming the policy People, organisations and sectors will options that will underpin the Committee’s every industry in every country…And the breadth and depth of these need to adapt to survive, and governments agenda for years to come. will need to move quickly to productively changes herald the transformation of entire systems of production, regulate the technologies behind these Learning how Melbourne can benefit from changes. the Fourth Industrial Revolution, while management, and governance. We do not yet know just how it will addressing its challenges, is the greatest unfold, but one thing is clear: the response to it must be integrated and This next period in our evolution will bring strategic question facing our city. We need enormous opportunity – but it will also to be bold, ambitious and clear in our vision comprehensive, involving all stakeholders of the global polity, from the disrupt employment markets, our economy, for Melbourne if we’re to make the most of and society at large. The unprecedented public and private sectors to academia and civil society.” our advantages. — Professor Klaus Schwab, Founder & Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum 2 3 ABOUT THE COMMITTEE FOR MELBOURNE The Committee for Melbourne is an To ensure Melbourne can continue to apolitical, not-for-profit, member-based thrive and remain a city of international organisation that brings together over 120 significance as we experience the organisations from Greater Melbourne’s challenges and opportunities of the business, academic and community Fourth Industrial Revolution, you can sectors, which share a common vision get involved in a range of our Melbourne to make Melbourne a better place 4.0 workshops and forums. to live, work and do business. For more information contact us via As an independent organisation, we [email protected] or (03) 9650 8800. represent no single interest group or political position, but seek to challenge To keep up-to-date with our activities, conventional thinking and to develop membership and our city, make sure you innovative ideas to continue to enhance sign up to our fortnightly eNewsletter, the our position as an economically prosperous Committee Communiqué, via melbourne. and highly liveable global city. org.au/enewsletter/enewsletter-sign-up The Committee for Melbourne encourages its member organisations and their representatives to become involved with the Committee’s activities to shape a better future for Melbourne. 1 The starting point 2 What is scenario planning? 3 The Taskforce process 4 The scenarios 5 Melbourne’s Strategic Needs 6 Our time starts now 7 Detailed scenarios 8 Acknowledgements 9 Bibliography This Committee for Melbourne publication is copyright © Reproduction, in whole or in part, is not permitted without permission of the Committee for Melbourne. The information contained within the report is, to the best of the Committee for Melbourne’s knowledge, up to date, true and accurate, and all conclusions made have been based on the information contained within this report. 5 5 1 THE STARTING POINT 2 WHAT IS SCENARIO PLANNING? “ We always overestimate the change that will occur “ He who predicts the future lies, in the next two years and underestimate the change even if he tells the truth.”— Arab proverb that will occur in the next ten. Don’t let yourself be lulled into inaction.”— Bill Gates, Co-founder, Microsoft Thirty years ago, it was clear that September 11, Amazon.com, WikiLeaks, the Melbourne was losing its stature as the Global Financial Crisis, the iPhone, the Arab economic capital of Australia. Often 57 6 5,000 referred to as a rust belt, Melbourne Spring, the Fukushima nuclear disaster, Facebook, and Victoria were in decline with the Australia’s position Melbourne’s ranking Annual unmet demand private and public sectors fragmented, in global internet among the most for Australian computer Brexit, President Trump… These are just some and becoming insular. Melburnians were speed rankings. expensive housing science graduates. emigrating in their thousands. markets on the of the hard-to-predict momentous events and globe. On this burning platform, the Committee developments that have taken place since the turn for Melbourne was established to help Melbourne regain its footing and become of the millennium seventeen years ago. a prosperous and globally relevant city. Today, Melbourne is in very different shape from 30 years ago. Having been 28 53 90 The world today looks very different from a method that uses as a starting point, the voted ‘The World’s Most Liveable City’ how you might have imagined it only a few uncertainty in the external environment six years in a row, we could be forgiven Australia’s position in Australia’s Australia’s position years ago. For example, more than half of that a business or city has little to no for thinking that we are doing all right. Year 4 mathematics position in global in global ICT the companies that were in the Fortune 500 influence over, but which determines the ranking out of 49 high-tech export services export in the year 2000 have since disappeared circumstances in which it will have to However, people and organisations are countries (fall of 10 rankings. rankings. due to digital disruption. In such a rapidly operate and the challenges it will face. now starting to realise that perhaps places since 2012). changing environment, all of us – including the greatest challenge we face is the city we live in – are required to progress Scenarios do not describe just one future, complacency. A few observations confirm and develop in concert with the surrounding but rather a range of plausible futures that our slipping standards, particularly in the % % BILLION environment. By having a structured illuminate all the corners of the ‘playing context of a future that potentially sees conversation about this through the use field’ in which our city will need to operate profound (digital) disruption and a shifting of scenario planning, patterns emerge and compete. A good set of scenarios will geopolitical landscape. 50 66 $9 which help us to develop new and credible force us to critically assess our conscious and unconscious biases and help prevent us Drop in the number Expected annual economic insights. from being blindsided. of Australian students costs, by 2031, arising from First developed by the US Air Force after studying IT courses delays on Melbourne’s World War II as a method for military Despite not being predictions of the future, over the last decade. major roads (triple current planning, Royal Dutch Shell adopted scenarios are particularly useful for having levels) unless there is scenario planning to successfully navigate an informed dialogue about it. They provide appropriate investment to AND the 1973 oil crisis, allowing its spectacular structure in uncertainty, help us understand reduce traffic congestion. rise from being one of the weaker how different planning assumptions may ‘Seven Sisters’ (the seven largest global play out over time, and thereby support oil companies) to becoming one of its decision makers in formulating robust long- MILLION % strongest. term strategies and policies. 6 86 LAST Scenarios are not attempts to predict the future. Nor do they try to articulate visions Anticipated Respectively, the In the OECD rankings for or desirable futures. Scenario planning is population of global economic research-based business Melbourne by 2030. output and patented collaboration. Meeting energy, innovation that water, waste, is produced by transport, food, and the world’s top many other needs 40 megaregions. will require whole- Melbourne does of-government not form part of any collaboration. megaregion. 6 7 3 THE TASKFORCE PROCESS The Melbourne 4.0 Taskforce process had scenario BUSINESS MODEL ANALYSIS – GREATER MELBOURNE planning at its core. The Taskforce worked through six steps by way of workshops and online surveys, as RESOURCES & PRECONDITIONS VALUE PROPOSITION ECONOMIC CLUSTERS well as individual interviews.

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