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NPR 9.3: the Impact of the Nuclear Posture Review on the International

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NPR 9.3: the Impact of the Nuclear Posture Review on the International JEAN DU PREEZ The Impact of the Nuclear Posture Review on the International Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime JEAN DU PREEZ Jean du Preez directs the International Organizations and Nonproliferation Program of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) at the Monterey Institute for International Studies. His current research focuses on the strengthened review process for the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Prior to joining CNS, he served as a disarmament and nonproliferation specialist in the South African Foreign Ministry and participated in both the 1995 and 2000 NPT Review Conferences. he Bush administration has provoked controversy importance of nuclear weapons. In an important step away by instituting a number of changes in U.S. nuclear from previous policy, the NPR acknowledges the improved Tpolicy. The administration’s view of U.S. nuclear relationship between the United States and the Russian strategy was revealed in the congressionally mandated Federation. But it still emphasizes that Russia remains the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR)—a strategic planning only state with a nuclear weapons capability that could document that integrates nuclear weapons into broader destroy the United States. The most controversial aspects aspects of U.S. defense planning—that was submitted to of the review, in the eyes of its critics, however, are that it Congress on December 31, 2001, and publicly released at specifically identifies six states (beyond Russia) as poten- a U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) press conference tial targets for U.S. nuclear weapons,4 emphasizes the on January 9, 2002. The key elements of the NPR were objective of maintaining and enhancing U.S. military flex- made public at the DOD press conference, but the main ibility, emphasizes U.S. concerns about hardened and body of the report remained classified. 1 The Los Angeles deeply buried bunkers that could contain weapons of mass Times and the New York Times reported in March 2002 destruction (WMD), and supports maintaining a large that they had obtained the full report and published sub- reserve stockpile of nuclear weapons. stantial excerpts from it.2 Many additional excerpts have Critics also charge that the NPR represents a radical since appeared on the web sites of nongovernmental departure from past U.S. nuclear policies by downplaying organizations that study security policy. 3 and, in some instances, repudiating key nuclear nonpro- According to Bush administration officials, the NPR liferation commitments made in 1995 and 2000 as part of reduces the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. national the review process for the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of security policy, as it makes strategic nuclear weapons only Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The NPR, for example, empha- one of three legs of a new strategic triad. Critics of the sizes that the reduction of nuclear weapons would be pur- NPR, however, view the document as increasing the sued without necessarily relying on the “requirement for The Nonproliferation Review/Fall-Winter 2002 67 THE NUCLEAR POSTURE REVIEW AND THE NONPROLIFERATION REGIME Cold War treaties.” 5 The stated objective of this policy is and other nuclear weapon states at the 2000 NPT to “give the United States maximum flexibility.”6 The Review Conference. NPR also calls for significantly shortening the time required to prepare for renewed nuclear testing, which AN OUTLINE OF THE NUCLEAR POSTURE many view as contradicting U.S. obligations as a signa- REVIEW tory of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). The NPR was followed in September 2002 by the The NPR represents an analysis by the DOD to deter- release of the related “National Security Strategy of the mine U.S. nuclear force planning over the next 5 to 10 United States.”7 This 33-page document declares that the years. Preparation of the NPR also involved the U.S. United States would “not hesitate” to act alone and “pre- Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) National Nuclear Secu- emptively” against other states that it perceives as hostile rity Administration (NNSA), the civilian government and that are harboring terrorist groups armed with, or seek- agency charged with development and oversight of U.S. ing, WMD. Taken together, the NPR and the national nuclear weapons. Congress requested the reassessment of security strategy have raised concerns among many mem- the U.S. nuclear posture in September 2000. The last such bers of the international community that the United review was conducted by the Clinton administration in States is slowing progress toward nuclear disarmament and 1994. The review, signed by Secretary of Defense Donald arms reductions, increasing the acceptability of nuclear Rumsfeld, is now being used by the U.S. Strategic Com- 10 weapons use, and supplementing deterrence with active mand to prepare a nuclear war plan. Congress has since defenses (rather than developing defenses with the aim included a clear reference to the NPR in the National of replacing nuclear deterrence). Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2003. In accor- The NPR is also indicative of how the United States dance with section 1031 of this legislation, “Strategic Force sees itself in a unipolar post-Cold War era in which it has Structure Plan for Nuclear Weapons and Delivery Sys- no strong opponents. The Bush administration’s pre- tems,” the DOD and DOE are to include in this plan, emptive strike doctrine states clearly that the United inter alia, “a baseline strategic force structure for such States enjoys “unparalleled military strength” and that it weapons and systems over such period consistent with 11 will never again allow its military supremacy to be chal- [the] Nuclear posture Review.” lenged as it was during the Cold War. The National Secu- U.S. strategic nuclear weapons have traditionally been rity Strategy states that “our forces will be strong enough organized in a triad of land (intercontinental ballistic to dissuade potential adversaries from pursuing a military missiles), sea (submarine-launched ballistic missiles), and buildup in hopes of surpassing, or equaling, the power of air (bombers) forces. The new NPR outlines a new triad the United States.”8 The combination of these documents, in which the old triad occupies only one part of offensive in particular the NPR directives on the development of strike systems. It now also includes improved conven- smaller and more usable nuclear weapons, could signal tional strike weapons. The new second part of the triad that the Bush administration is “willing to overlook its includes active and passive defenses in which missile long-standing taboo against the use of nuclear weapons defenses are a fundamental component. The third seg- except as a last resort…such moves could dangerously ment emphasizes the need for developing a defense infra- destabilize the world by encouraging other countries to structure that can respond rapidly to changes in the believe that they, too, should develop nuclear weapons.”9 security environment.12 Bush administration officials This report provides an analysis of the international argue that in comparison to previous U.S. policy, the new reaction to the NPR in the context of the nuclear non- triad de-emphasizes the role of nuclear weapons. proliferation regime. It assesses the negative impact of the Although the NPR recognizes that the demise of the NPR on the CTBT, including the possibility of resumed Soviet Union shifted U.S. nuclear weapons planning away nuclear weapons testing by the United States. It then dis- from mainly targeting the Russian Federation, it main- cusses the impact of the NPR on the security assurances tains the principle that Russia remains the only nation provided by the United States not to use or threaten to that can conceivably destroy the United States because use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapon states. of the size of its nuclear arsenal. Thus Russia continues to It also provides an analysis of the impact of the NPR on be considered a potential target for U.S. nuclear weapons. the strengthened NPT review process, in particular the However, the new review, reflecting the less public views disarmament commitments agreed to by the United States of previous administrations, for the first time explicitly 68 The Nonproliferation Review/Fall-Winter 2002 JEAN DU PREEZ lists six other countries of concern as targets: The Demo- weapons. Los Alamos National Laboratory is already de- cratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), Iran, Iraq, Syria, veloping “an automated, expandable, robust manufactur- Libya, and China. It describes the potential threat pre- ing capability to produce, without underground testing, sented by the WMD programs of these countries as stockpiled and new design pits within 19 months of the resulting from “immediate, potential or unexpected con- establishment of the need for a new pit and with a stock- tingencies.”13 Aside from deliberately developing target- pile life greater than the weapons systems.”16 ing plans against these countries, the NPR calls for greater The New York Times recently reported that the DOD emphasis on adaptive planning. Such planning will allow is considering building a new installation for making plu- the United States to produce nuclear war plans quickly in tonium pits. According to the report, the U.S. Depart- response to contingencies that could arise throughout the ment of Energy is studying whether to pursue the world. This development complements the U.S. military’s construction of the new plant, which would cost an esti- decision to move from a “threat-based” to a “capabilities- mated $2.2 to $4.1 billion.17 based” defense system, which would purportedly give the Suspicions that the development of new nuclear war- United States more flexibility in crisis situations. heads and other types of nuclear weapons may be under The new NPR outlines U.S. plans to reduce opera- consideration, as suggested in the NPR, were further re- tionally deployed strategic nuclear weapons to a level of inforced by language in the Defense Authorization Act for 3,800 warheads by 2007 and 1,700-2,200 by 2012.
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