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Assessing Implementation of the Nuclear Posture Review Assessing Implementation of the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review Kevin Kallmyer1 June 2011 In April of 2009, President Barack Obama helped revive international attention and debate on the feasibility and desirability of a world without nuclear weapons by delivering his now-famous Prague Speech.1 In the speech, Obama articulated ―America's commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons‖ and thus set a cooperative tone for a busy year of international engagement on nonproliferation and nuclear security issues. However, Obama was frank that this world would not be reached easily, and ―perhaps not in [his] lifetime.‖2 Moreover, he maintained that nuclear weapons serve a purpose and that, so long as they exist, the United States would maintain a nuclear arsenal to ―deter any adversary.‖ U.S. nuclear policy thus encompassed two core efforts – to disarm and to deter – that were to be undertaken simultaneously. It is therefore important to assess what concrete steps the United States has taken to move the world closer to a world without nuclear weapons while maintaining a safe, secure and effective nuclear arsenal. In 2010, the Obama Administration released its Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), which serves as a guiding document for its nuclear weapons policy.3 Although the scope of the administration‘s efforts on nuclear policy extends beyond the NPR to include the Ballistic Missile Defense Review, New START process and other initiatives, the NPR provides a useful framework for assessing the administration‘s progress in achieving stated objectives and its fidelity to the vision laid out in the president‘s Prague Speech. To that end, the NPR set forth five key objectives: Objective One: Prevent nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism Objective Two: Reduce the role of U.S. nuclear weapons in U.S. national security strategy 1 Kevin Kallmyer is the Program Coordinator and Research Assistant for the Defense and National Security Group at CSIS. 1 Objective Three: Maintain strategic deterrence and stability at lower nuclear force levels Objective Four: Strengthen regional deterrence and reassure U.S. allies and partners Objective Five: Sustain a safe, secure, and effective nuclear arsenal This document tracks the Obama administration‘s progress in implementing the policies it laid out in the NPR. Accordingly, it uses the five objectives of the NPR as the basis for its methodology: the chart below lists each policy proposal or goal mentioned within an NPR- objective next to specific efforts taken by the Obama administration towards that end. Some of the NPR‘s recommendations have been easily accomplished; others are in the process of being implemented; and others simply represent long-term goals that are difficult to measure with specific data points. This document, however, does not attempt to grade the Obama administration‘s efforts, but instead seeks to provide nuclear policy analysts with a comprehensive set of information of what, specifically, the administration has and has not done in order to improve the dialogue on U.S. nuclear weapons policy. The following section lists some of these key successes and ongoing challenges within the Obama administration‘s nuclear agenda. After that, a detailed run-down is provided of the specific recommendations made in the NPR and administration outputs in support of those goals as of June 2011. Notable Successes and Challenges Notable Successes The Obama administration reduced the size and role of the nuclear weapons arsenal through the ratification of New START and the adoption of negative security assurances, which reduced, but did not eliminate, the role of nuclear weapons in deterring non- nuclear attacks. The FY 2011 budget increased the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) budget by 7% to $10.56 billion. Over the next ten years, the Obama administration has committed $85 billion to sustain and modernize the nuclear weapons complex and $100 billion to sustain and modernize nuclear delivery systems. 2 The United States hosted the 2010 Nuclear Security Summit, strengthening international commitment to secure global fissile material stockpiles. The United States and Russia have committed to eliminate 68 tons of highly enriched uranium (HEU)—enough HEU to make 17,000 nuclear weapons—and the Global Threat Reduction Initiative secured 10 tons of HEU—enough HEU to make 775 nuclear weapons—in Kazakhstan. The FY 2011 budget allocated $10.2 billion for the development of missile defense capabilities and the United States secured consensus within NATO to develop a NATO missile defense system. The NPR and the Ballistic Missile Defense Review argue that the development of missile defense and conventional weapon programs are an enabling factor for the reduction of nuclear weapons in regional security architectures. Ongoing Challenges The potential for a more austere budget climate, foreshadowed by the FY 2011 budget debate and Continuing Resolutions that decreased funding for the NNSA from the Obama administration‘s FY 2011 budget requests, may threaten funding commitments for the nuclear weapons complex, and even more likely, nonproliferation programs. Future arms control efforts and nuclear weapons reductions will likely be exceedingly difficult. The next round of U.S.-Russian arms control negotiations face asymmetric bargaining demands, while multilateral negotiations would increase the number of parties, and in turn, potential spoilers—both of these factors could make agreements more difficult to reach. Additionally, New START demonstrated that even modest nuclear reductions may face strong political opposition. North Korean acquisition and Iran‘s continued pursuit of nuclear weapons is a threat to the nonproliferation regime and demonstrates the limits of diplomatic efforts to ensure compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. 3 Implementation Status of the 2010 NPR Objective One: Prevent nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism Goal: Bolster the nuclear non-proliferation regime and the NPT Policy Status Reverse the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran. Engage North Korea has maintained its nuclear weapons program and Iran has multilaterally and bilaterally with these states to arrive at failed to demonstrate the peaceful nature of its nuclear program. negotiated solutions that provide for their political and economic Multilateral negotiations with Iran have not made progress, although the integration with the international community, while verifiably U.S. has said it is still willing to engage.4 confirming they are not pursuing nuclear weapons capabilities. North Korea has requested to restart 6-party talks, but the U.S. position is that they demonstrate, through actions, a commitment to denuclearization.5 The fourth round Iran sanctions (UNSCR 1929) substantially expanded penalties against Iran.6 The U.S. Treasury Department has continued to sanction Iranian and North Korean entities suspected of proliferation.7 Create consequences for non-compliance with the NPT. The U.S. successfully pressed for the adoption of a final document at the 2010 NPT Review Conference that included a 64-point action plan for strengthening the treaty.8 The efficacy of international pressure on Iran and North Korea may serve as a litmus test for the consequences of non-compliance with the NPT. The Libyan intervention has raised debate on potential regime-survival benefits of non-compliance with the NPT.9 Strengthen the International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards. The IAEA fuel bank has received $50 million in contributions from the Expand financial support for the regular IAEA budget and push U.S. and $150 million in total contributions from all member-states and for stronger institutional support from other states, while we the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI).10 continue to increase our own extra-budgetary contributions. The overall IAEA budget has remained flat and could decline.11 The U.S. has announced a "Peaceful Uses Initiative" with a $50 million commitment over the next 5 years.12 4 The U.S. Next Generation Safeguards Initiative (NGSI) will The U.S. NGSI has: assist the IAEA to confront new challenges far into the future by o Hosted 2 regional infrastructure workshops for countries interested helping develop the tools, authorities, capabilities, technologies, in pursuing nuclear power expertise, and resources needed to meet current and future o Developed 4 new safeguards technologies and analytical safeguard challenges. methodologies o Recruited over 50 students through safeguards internships o Partnered with 6 countries to develop safeguards systems concepts o Trained 300 foreign experts in safeguards13 Goal: Impede illicit nuclear trade Policy Status Strengthen national and multilateral export and border controls, The Obama administration completed a review of U.S. export control financial, and other tools used to disrupt illicit proliferation policy.14 networks. The Obama administration plans to ease export control restrictions on selling products with military application that are already broadly available, while strengthening controls on critical technology. Congress has not yet approved export control reform.15 The U.S. has proposed Indian membership to the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), which may complicate efforts to strengthen the body.16 Strengthen restrictions on the transfer of dual-use enrichment and The U.S. has promoted123 Agreements with multiple countries, but the reprocessing technologies. degree that such
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