Shifting Tides: Radical-Right Populism and Immigration Policy in Europe and the United States
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SHIFTING TIDES: RADICAL-RIGHT POPULISM AND IMMIGRATION POLICY IN EUROPE AND THE UNITED STATES By Martin A. Schain TRANSATLANTIC COUNCIL ON MIGRATION SHIFTING TIDES Radical-Right Populism and Immigration Policy in Europe and the United States By Martin A. Schain August 2018 Acknowledgments The author thanks the editors at the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) for their important comments, as well as Aliyyah Ahad for critical insights and contributions that have enriched this work. He would also like to thank his friends and colleagues, Pascal Perrineau and Michael Minkenberg, with whom he has shared an interest in the radical right over many years. This research was commissioned for the eighteenth plenary meeting of the Transatlantic Council on Migration, an initiative of the Migration Policy Institute (MPI), held in Stockholm in November 2017. The meeting’s theme was “The Future of Migration Policy in a Volatile Political Landscape,” and this report was one of several that informed the Council’s discussions. The Council is a unique deliberative body that examines vital policy issues and informs migration policymaking processes in North America and Europe. The Council’s work is generously supported by the following foundations and governments: the Open Society Foundations, Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Barrow Cadbury Trust, the Luso-American Development Foundation, the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation, and the governments of Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. For more on the Transatlantic Council on Migration, please visit: www.migrationpolicy.org/ transatlantic. © 2018 Migration Policy Institute. All Rights Reserved. Cover Design: April Siruno, MPI Layout: Sara Staedicke, MPI No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission from the Migration Policy Institute. A full-text PDF of this document is available for free download from www.migrationpolicy.org. Information for reproducing excerpts from this report can be found at www.migrationpolicy.org/about/copyright-policy. Inquiries can also be directed to [email protected]. Suggested citation: Schain, Martin A. 2018. Shifting Tides: Radical-Right Populism and Immigration Policy in Europe and the United States. Washington, DC: Migration Policy Institute. Table of Contents Executive Summary ....................................................................................1 I. Introduction ..........................................................................................3 II. What Drives Support for Radical-Right Populism? ..........................4 A. Economic Instability .......................................................................................................................5 B. Immigration and the Diversity Dilemma ..................................................................................6 C. Migration, Security, and “Crisis” ..................................................................................................9 D. Politics and Voter Realignment ....................................................................................................9 III. Electoral Breakthroughs and Establishment ................................... 10 IV. Gauging Influence over Immigration Policy and Policymaking ..... 14 A. Impact on the Party Itself ...........................................................................................................14 B. Impact on the Party System and Agenda Formation ..........................................................15 C. Impact on Policy ...........................................................................................................................18 V. Prospects for Future Impact ............................................................. 20 VI. Policy Recommendations .................................................................. 22 A. Potential for Participation ..........................................................................................................23 B. Immigration and Political Mobilization ....................................................................................24 C. A “Whole-of-Society” Approach ..............................................................................................24 D. Rebuild Economic Confidence ..................................................................................................25 Works Cited .............................................................................................. 27 About the Author ...................................................................................... 33 MIGRATION POLICY INSTITUTE Executive Summary In recent electoral cycles, a wave of support for populist radical-right policies, particularly in the immigration arena, has reshaped the political landscape in Europe and the United States. These policies vary from country to country, but generally share several common threads: a sense of exclusive nationalism, belief that national identity is under threat from foreign cultures, desire to sharply cut immigration, and distrust of elites. And although candidates who espouse such positions have achieved only limited electoral success—with notable exceptions that include the United States in 2016 and Italy in 2018—this ideology too soon to tell when, or if, the current wave of radical-right populism will lose steam, it is a crucial moment hasto examine had an undulythe broader large societalinfluence drivers on the underpinning political agendas its success and priorities and how of it mainstream is shaping immigration parties. While it is policymaking and institutions. The United States is unique compared to most European countries in that it does not have a prominent radical-right party; rather, strains of this ideology as it relates to border and immigration policy have iteration of anti-immigrant, radical-right populism in Europe has existed and endured for decades, with at various points in recent history flared up in corners of the Republican Party. By contrast, the current varyingsuch as thedegrees decline of success.of traditional Despite manufacturing ebbs and flows industries in popularity, and of several the mobilizing discernible capacity trends of have trade created unions, fertileand the ground growth for of its secular recent over electoral Christian breakthroughs. religious identities—have Most significantly, undermined economic support and social from changes— traditional electoral bases on both the left and the right, and made that support more conditional on particular issues. While it is too soon to tell when, or if, the current wave of radical- right populism will lose steam, it is a crucial moment to examine the broader societal drivers underpinning its success. At the same time, new issues have emerged on the political agenda as a result of changing patterns of immigration, growing ethnic and religious diversity, and concerns about how well immigrants (and especiallyby border-security Muslim immigrants) challenges (such are integrating as the surge into in Westernunaccompanied societies. child Even migration in the United at the States, southern where U.S. the public has long viewed immigration and growing diversity more positively, this confidence has been shaken perpetrated by people with immigration backgrounds. Ultimately, these long-term trends and new issues borderhave loosened that began the intraditional 2014) and connection a series of between high-profile voters terrorist and established attacks in parties Europe and and created the United a pool States of alienated voters for radical-right candidates to court. As largely single-issue parties in much of Europe, the impact of the populist radical right on immigration policymaking,electoral pressure until exerted now, has by been the successes limited and of populistmostly indirect. radical-right Rather politicians, than directly center-right shaping policy,parties their have mosttended significant either to impactco-opt somehas been of the on issues the party on the system radical-right itself and agenda on the topolitical regain agenda.lost votes In orresponse to isolate to the their challengers by cooperating only with other established parties (or, as in France and the Netherlands, have narrowed considerably in recent elections such that the radical right no longer “owns” issues such as toimmigration, do both). As Islamophobia, a result of the security, first strategy, and Euroskepticism. the policy priorities of parties across the political spectrum Shifting Tides: Radical-Right Populism and Immigration Policy in Europe and the United States 1 MIGRATION POLICY INSTITUTE While its power over the political agenda has not always translated into significant parliamentary power—particularlyand in Austria, Denmark, in first-past-the-post Italy, the Netherlands, electoral Norway, systems—radical-right and Switzerland they populism have joined has had governing other forms ofcoalitions. influence. Yet Countries even in these with cases,proportional their membership representation in a havegoverning given coalitionmore seats has to not radical-right always allowed parties, win votes but are generally less effective at governing: while they can get some of their priorities onto the thempolitical direct agenda, influence they haveover immigrationhad limited impact policy. onPopulist the development radical-right of parties