James Kenneth Galbraithl [email protected] Curriculum Vitae
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Lecture Sunday 2019-09-22 Monday 2019-09-23 Room Time 13:00 15:00 16:30 19:00 09:00 11:00 11:30 12:30 13:45 15:00 17:00 19:00 Foyer Coffee Breaks 10:30 - 11:00, 16:30 - 17:00 KN 1: Paulinum Opening M. Petrova PD Gossen PD PD Audimax Core Con- Award / Central DIW ference Thünen L. Banks Albertina WS WS WS Vortrags- Mentoring Mentoring Econ. saal for Women for Women Consulting Albertina WS Fürsten- DFG zimmer HS 9 HS 13 OM: A01 OM: B01 HS 14 OM: B02 Inv. Session: HS 15 Econ. Theory HS 16 OM: A02 OM: B03 HS 17 OM: A03 OM: B04 HS 18 OM: A04 OM: B05 HS 19 OM: A05 OM: B06 HS 20 S 202 OM: A06 OM: B07 S 203 OM: A07 OM: B08 S 204 OM: A08 OM: B09 S 205 OM: A09 OM: B10 S 210 OM: A10 OM: B11 S 211 OM: A11 OM: B12 S 212 OM: A12 OM: B13 S 213 OM: A13 OM: B14 S 214 OM: A14 OM: B15 S 215 OM: A15 OM: B16 S 220 OM: A16 OM: B17 S 221 OM: A17 OM: B18 S 222 OM: A18 OM: B19 S 223 OM: A19 OM: B20 S 224 OM: A20 OM: B21 S 225 OM: A21 OM: B22 S 226 OM: A22 OM: B23 Jobmarket Jobmarket Jobmarket Jobmarket Jobmarket Jobmarket Jobmarket S 227 Seminar Seminar Seminar Seminar Seminar Seminar Seminar S 228 OM: A23 OM: B24 S 229 OM: A24 OM: B25 Reception Ring-Café Selten Award Restaurant Reception Felix Neues Rathaus WS = Workshop KN = Keynote OM = Open Meeting PD = Panel Discussion Lecture Tuesday 2019-09-24 Wednesday 2019-09-25 Room 09:00 11:00 12:30 13:45 15:00 16:45 19:00 09:00 11:00 11:30 12:30 13:45 15:00 16:15 8:00 - 9:00 Info Event AvH / Breaks 10:30 - 11:00, 16:30 - 16:45 Coffee Break 10:30 - 11:00 Foyer Paulinum PD 18:15 PD KN 2: PD PD KN 3: PD Lokalorg. -
Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Work
Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Work The Economics of Artifi cial Intelligence National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report The Economics of Artifi cial Intelligence: An Agenda Edited by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb The University of Chicago Press Chicago and London The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637 The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London © 2019 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission, except in the case of brief quotations in critical articles and reviews. For more information, contact the University of Chicago Press, 1427 E. 60th St., Chicago, IL 60637. Published 2019 Printed in the United States of America 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 1 2 3 4 5 ISBN-13: 978-0-226-61333-8 (cloth) ISBN-13: 978-0-226-61347-5 (e-book) DOI: https:// doi .org / 10 .7208 / chicago / 9780226613475 .001 .0001 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Agrawal, Ajay, editor. | Gans, Joshua, 1968– editor. | Goldfarb, Avi, editor. Title: The economics of artifi cial intelligence : an agenda / Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb, editors. Other titles: National Bureau of Economic Research conference report. Description: Chicago ; London : The University of Chicago Press, 2019. | Series: National Bureau of Economic Research conference report | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifi ers: LCCN 2018037552 | ISBN 9780226613338 (cloth : alk. paper) | ISBN 9780226613475 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Artifi cial intelligence—Economic aspects. Classifi cation: LCC TA347.A78 E365 2019 | DDC 338.4/ 70063—dc23 LC record available at https:// lccn .loc .gov / 2018037552 ♾ This paper meets the requirements of ANSI/ NISO Z39.48-1992 (Permanence of Paper). -
Italian Economics
The Structure of Post-Keynesian Economics: The Core Contributions of the Pioneers G. C. Harcourt* Abstract: This paper summarises the key elements of Geoffrey Harcourt’s (2006) book of the same title. Special emphasis is given to the contribution of the Cambridge pioneers, such as John Maynard Keynes, Richard Kahn, Joan Robinson, Nicholas Kaldor, Michal Kalecki, Richard Goodwin, Piero Sraffa, Luigi Pasinetti, and Dennis Robertson. The objective of their approaches is to comprehend the dynamics of an advanced capitalist economy, particularly in the context of a monetary system of production. Here, investment leads and saving follows, while the marginal propensity to save of capitalists is greater than that of workers. The economic surplus is produced in the consumption goods sector, and utilised in the capital goods sector. Mark-up pricing is important for the determination of the surplus, as is the trade off between profit-margins and sales. Kalecki’s principle of increasing risk plays a role in the cyclical dynamics, as does the two-sided relationship between profitability and accumulation. The prevailing business climate is important in determining future expectations, while endogenous money and credit help to finance investment. Growth is thus endogenous in these models of finance, accumulation and profit, while potential conflict plays a role in the pricing and investment decisions and in the process of inflation. A general policy vision emanates from these foundations. 1 Introduction I start, first, by thanking the original inhabitants of the land on which we are now meeting for their courtesy in having us as their guests. Secondly, I must apologise to Peter Groenewegen and John King as they have already heard me talking on the present topic at the ESHET Conference in Porto in April 2006. -
Understanding Inflation!Indexed Bond Markets
Understanding In‡ation-Indexed Bond Markets John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, and Luis M. Viceira1 First draft: February 2009 This version: May 2009 1 Campbell: Department of Economics, Littauer Center, Harvard University, Cambridge MA 02138, and NBER. Email [email protected]. Shiller: Cowles Foundation, Box 208281, New Haven CT 06511, and NBER. Email [email protected]. Viceira: Harvard Business School, Boston MA 02163 and NBER. Email [email protected]. Campbell and Viceira’s research was sup- ported by the U.S. Social Security Administration through grant #10-M-98363-1-01 to the National Bureau of Economic Research as part of the SSA Retirement Research Consortium. The …ndings and conclusions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not represent the views of SSA, any agency of the Federal Government, or the NBER. We are grateful to Carolin P‡ueger for ex- ceptionally able research assistance, to Mihir Worah and Gang Hu of PIMCO, Derek Kaufman of Citadel, and Albert Brondolo, Michael Pond, and Ralph Segreti of Barclays Capital for their help in understanding TIPS and in‡ation derivatives markets and the unusual market conditions in the fall of 2008, and to Barclays Capital for providing data. An earlier version of the paper was presented at the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, April 2-3, 2009. We acknowledge the helpful comments of panel members and our discussants, Rick Mishkin and Jonathan Wright. Abstract This paper explores the history of in‡ation-indexed bond markets in the US and the UK. It documents a massive decline in long-term real interest rates from the 1990’suntil 2008, followed by a sudden spike in these rates during the …nancial crisis of 2008. -
Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts: Psychological Explanations and an Experimentally Based Comparison to Novices
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Leitner, Johannes; Schmidt, Robert; Bofinger, Peter Working Paper Biases of professional exchange rate forecasts: Psychological explanations and an experimentally based comparison to novices W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers, No. 39 Provided in Cooperation with: University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics Suggested Citation: Leitner, Johannes; Schmidt, Robert; Bofinger, Peter (2003) : Biases of professional exchange rate forecasts: Psychological explanations and an experimentally based comparison to novices, W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers, No. 39, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics, Würzburg This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/48447 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu W. -
Notes and Sources for Evil Geniuses: the Unmaking of America: a Recent History
Notes and Sources for Evil Geniuses: The Unmaking of America: A Recent History Introduction xiv “If infectious greed is the virus” Kurt Andersen, “City of Schemes,” The New York Times, Oct. 6, 2002. xvi “run of pedal-to-the-medal hypercapitalism” Kurt Andersen, “American Roulette,” New York, December 22, 2006. xx “People of the same trade” Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations, ed. Andrew Skinner, 1776 (London: Penguin, 1999) Book I, Chapter X. Chapter 1 4 “The discovery of America offered” Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy In America, trans. Arthur Goldhammer (New York: Library of America, 2012), Book One, Introductory Chapter. 4 “A new science of politics” Tocqueville, Democracy In America, Book One, Introductory Chapter. 4 “The inhabitants of the United States” Tocqueville, Democracy In America, Book One, Chapter XVIII. 5 “there was virtually no economic growth” Robert J Gordon. “Is US economic growth over? Faltering innovation confronts the six headwinds.” Policy Insight No. 63. Centre for Economic Policy Research, September, 2012. --Thomas Piketty, “World Growth from the Antiquity (growth rate per period),” Quandl. 6 each citizen’s share of the economy Richard H. Steckel, “A History of the Standard of Living in the United States,” in EH.net (Economic History Association, 2020). --Andrew McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (New York: W.W. Norton, 2016), p. 98. 6 “Constant revolutionizing of production” Friedrich Engels and Karl Marx, Manifesto of the Communist Party (Moscow: Progress Publishers, 1969), Chapter I. 7 from the early 1840s to 1860 Tomas Nonnenmacher, “History of the U.S. -
Crises in Europe and Challenges for Economic Education
Journal of Social Science Education © JSSE 2013 Volume 12, Number 2 ISSN 1 61 8-5293 Birgit Weber Editorial: Crises in Europe and Challenges for Economic Education Keywords: economic crisis, European crises, concepts, views and minds about European crises, economic education Since 2009 the European Union is facing a severe At such dynamically changing times, where eco- economic crisis. Does the current crisis reflect the nomy is affected by multiple crises and in which failure of the economic player or markets? Or does it also the discipline of economics critically reflects even reflect the failure of an entire economic system their limitations, it does not belong to the easiest inevitably culminating in speculative bubbles, tasks of economic education to provide with increasing economic inequality, always accompanied orientation, judgment, decision-making and action by severe crises? Or is it more of a failure of the according to economic situations, problems and political institutions that relinquished its power by phenomena. On the one hand, the crises generates the liberalization of financial markets, cancelling the quite considerable interest by their ubiquity, liability of financial institutions, becoming helpless particularly focusing on the other hand only on repair institutions of financial capitalism? Or is the fragments and dominant controversies of the European crisis “only” an extension of the global respective current situations. On the one hand, the financial crisis of 2008, which resulted in the rescue understanding of relationships and developments is of individual states, brought them to stumble complex and on the other hand, considerable themselves? Or does it just bring the design flaws of uncertainty and controversy of experts create the the European Monetary System to light? There is no impression of arbitrariness. -
Equilibrium Analysis in the Behavioral Neoclassical Growth Model
Equilibrium Analysis in Behavioral One-Sector Growth Models* Daron Acemoglu† and Martin Kaae Jensen‡ December 12, 2020 Abstract Rich behavioral biases, mistakes and limits on rational decision-making are often thought to make equilibrium analysis much more intractable. We establish that this is not the case in the context of one-sector growth models such as Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans or Aiyagari models. We break down the response of the economy to a change in the environment or policy into two parts: the direct response at the given (pre-tax) prices, and the equilibrium response which plays out as prices change. Our main result demonstrates that under weak regularity conditions, re- gardless of the details of behavioral preferences, mistakes and constraints on decision-making, the long-run equilibrium will involve a greater capital-labor ratio if and only if the direct re- sponse (from the corresponding consumption-saving model) involves an increase in aggregate savings. One implication of this result is that, from a qualitative point of view, behavioral biases matter for long-run equilibrium if and only if they change the direction of the direct response. We show how to apply this result with the popular quasi-hyperbolic discounting preferences, self-control and temptation utilities and systematic misperceptions, clarifying the conditions under which usual comparative statics hold and those under which they are reversed. Keywords: behavioral economics, comparative statics, general equilibrium, neoclassical growth. JEL Classification: D90, D50, O41. *We thank Xavier Gabaix for very useful discussion and comments. Thanks also to Drew Fudenberg, Marcus Hagedorn, David Laibson, Paul Milgrom and Kevin Reffett, as well as participants at the TUS-IV-2017 conference in Paris, and seminar participants at Lund University and the University of Oslo for helpful comments and suggestions. -
Beatrice Weder Di Mauro
Beatrice Weder di Mauro INSEAD Ph: +65 6799 5388 1 Ayer Rajah Avenue Email: [email protected] 138676 Singapore CEPR Ph: +44 20 71838801 33 Great Sutton Street Email: [email protected] London EC1V 0DX, UK EMPLOYMENT AND EDUCATION: INSEAD, Singapore Research Professor, since 2018 DistinguisheD Fellow-in-ResiDence Emerging Markets Institute, since 2016 Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), London President, since 2018 Research Fellow, since 2003 University of Mainz, MainZ Professor of Economics Chair of Policy and International Macroeconomics, 2001–2018 German Council of Economic Experts, WiesbaDen Member, 2004–2012 University of Basel, Basel Assistant Professor of Economics, 1998–2001 United Nations University, Tokyo Research Fellow, 1997–1998 The World Bank, Washington Consultant for WorlD Development Report, 1996–1997 International Monetary Fund, Washington Economist Program, European Department 1994-1995, Fiscal Affairs Department, 1995–1996 University of Basel, Basel Lic rer pol 1989, Dr. rer pol 1993 TEMPORARY OR VISITING POSITIONS: INSEAD, Singapore Visiting Scholar, August–December 2015 European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels Fellow of Research Fellowship Initiative 2014–15 International Monetary Fund, Washington Research Department, Resident Scholar, April–September 2010 Visiting Scholar, April 1999, August 1999, March 2000, March 2002, October 2002, March 2003, October 2003, May 2006 National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), CambriDge MA Visiting Scholar, March–April 2006 Federal Reserve Board of New -
FE Guerra-Pujol* More Than Fifty Years Ago Ronald Coase Published
MODELLING THE COASE THEOREM F E Guerra-Pujol* More than fifty years ago Ronald Coase published ‘The Problem of Social Cost’. In his paper, Professor Coase presents an intriguing idea that has since become known among economists and lawyers as the ‘Coase Theorem’. Unlike most modern forms of economic analysis, however, Coase’s Theorem is based on a verbal argument and is almost always proved arithmetically. That is to say, the Coase Theorem is not really a theorem in the formal or mathematical sense of the word. Our objective in this paper, then, is to remedy this deficiency by formalizing the logic of the Coase Theorem. In summary, we combine Coase’s intuitive insights with the formal methods of game theory. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................... 180 II. BRIEF BACKGROUND: THEORETICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF THE COASE THEOREM .................................................................................... 180 III. COASE’S ARITHMETICAL MODELS OF THE COASE THEOREM (STRAY CATTLE AND RAILWAY SPARKS) ................................................ 182 1. Stray Cattle ..................................................................................... 182 2. Railway Sparks ............................................................................... 184 3. Some Non-Arithmetical Models of Coase’s Theorem ........................... 185 IV. COASIAN GAMES ...................................................................................... 189 1. A Two-Player Coasian -
Georgy Egorov
GEORGY EGOROV Curriculum Vitae January 2013 Dept. of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences Ph: +1-847-467-2154 Kellogg School of Management Fax: +1-847-467-1220 Northwestern University [email protected] Personal Born October 12, 1979, in Moscow Russian citizen, U.S. permanent resident Academic positions 2010 – Assistant Professor of Managerial Economics, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University 2010 – Faculty Research Fellow, NBER 2009 – 2010 Senior Lecture & Jacobs Scholar (tenure-track), Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University Higher education 2005 – 2009 Ph.D. in Economics, Harvard University 2005 – 2008 M.A. in Economics, Harvard University 2001 – 2003 M.A. in Economics (cum laude), New Economic School, Moscow majors in Economic Policy, Finance, Managerial Economics 1996 – 2001 M.S. in Mathematics (summa cum laude), Moscow State University, Dept. of Mechanics and Mathematics Research interests Political economy, economic theory, game theory Teaching experience 2011 – Social Choice and Voting Models (graduate) 2010 – Values and Crisis Decision-Making (part-time MBA program) 2006-2008 TA at Harvard University: Contract Theory (graduate), Economic Theory (graduate), Game Theory in Economics (undergraduate) 2003-2004 TA at New Economic School: Political Economy, Auction Theory (both graduate) 2003-2004 TA, then lecturer, State University of the Humanities (Moscow): Public Economics (undergraduate) Other employment and education 2007 – 2009 Research Assistant (Harvard, MIT, NBER) 2003 – 2005 -
CR Traverse Analysis Progenitors & Pioneers
Traverse Analysis: Progenitors and Pioneers 14th History of Economic Thought Society of Australia Conference The University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia. 11th July 2001 Colin Richardson* School of Economics University of Tasmania ABSTRACT Traverse analysis has two progenitors (David Ricardo, Karl Marx) and five pioneers: Michal Kalecki, Adolph Lowe, Joan Robinson, J.R. Hicks, and John Hicks. Defined as the dynamic disequilibrium adjustment-path that connects an initial with a different terminal state of economic growth, the traverse comes in four “flavours”. There are neoclassical (J.R. Hicks), neo-Austrian (John Hicks), observed (Ricardo, Marx, Kalecki, Robinson), and instrumental (Lowe) traverses. These terms are explained and the seven seminal contributions are summarised and commented upon in this paper. * I am indebted to Dr Jerry Courvisanos for his supervision and comments in writing this paper. Scholarship support from The University of Tasmania is also gratefully acknowledged. 2 Introduction Nobel laureate economist Robert Solow once quipped: “The traverse is the easiest part of skiing but the most difficult part of economics”. Later, Joseph Halevi and Peter Kriesler (1992, p 225) complained that “The traverse is at the same time one of the most important concepts in economic theory, and also one of the most neglected.” This paper outlines briefly the history of economic thought between 1821 and 1973 concerning this difficult, important and neglected theoretical construct. Traverse analysis has two progenitors (David Ricardo, Karl Marx) and five pioneers: Michal Kalecki, Adolph Lowe, Joan Robinson, J.R. Hicks, and John Hicks. Defined as the dynamic disequilibrium adjustment-path that connects an initial with a different terminal state of economic growth, the traverse comes in four “flavours”.