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<i3 . -7 07 l'4oo0tôo il uc 1 0326083 e- /\V ilililililililIIilililililililililtil o The 'Convergence of the Twain': A notational analysis of northern hemisphere rugby league and rugby union football (1988-2002) Simon John Eaves BA, PGCE, MSc. Submitted April 2006 for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Wales Director of Studies: Professor Mike Hughes (U\ilIC) Supervisors: Dr Kevin Lamb (University of Chester); Professor Roger Bartlett (University of Otago) DECLARATION This work has not previously been accepted in substance for any degree and is not being concurrently submitted in candidature for any degree. Signed. ...(candidate) Date. lLo This thesis is the result of my own investigation, except where otherwise stated. Other sources are acknowledged by reference in text. Signed ..(candidate) Date. tut, Loo I hereby give consent for my thesis, if accepted, to be available for inter-library loan or photocopying (subject to the law of copyright), and for the title arid summary to be made available to outside organisations. Signed.... ....(candidate) Date À9-a.t 2.Ð*b CONTENTS List of tables List of figures lv Aclarowledgements tx Abstract The'Convergence of the Tlvain': A notational analysis of rugby x league and rugby union football (1988 - 2002) Chapter 1 Introduction 1 Chapter 2 Review of Literature 10 Chapter 3 Methods 49 Chapter 4 Reliability and normative profiles 7S Chaptcr 5 G¡me profiles 103 Chapter 6 Performance indicators 206 Chapter 7 Summary and conclusions 257 References 275 LIST OF TABLE,S Page Chapter 2 Review of Literaturc 10 2.1 A synthesis ofrugby union and rugby league papers since 2001 22 addressing the key issues in notational analysis 2.2 Frequency and percentages for key variables calculated ûom the raw 36 data presented by Potter (1997) 2,3 Performance indicators for RWC furals 1987-1995 38 2.4 I\zlean frequency of total game actions for Five Nations rugby 1992- 44 1994 anó RWC l99l and 1995 2.5 Stand offpossession options inthe 1992-1994 Five Nations 45 Championships Chapter 3 Methods 49 3.1 Rugby league games analysed by Period and Era 67 3.2 Rugby union games analysed by Period and Era 68 Chapter 4 Reliability and normative profiles 75 4.\ Intra-observer level of agreemenr(%) for timing of variables rugby 17 union and rugby league 4.2 Intra-observer level of agreement (%) for the identification of selected EO variables in rugby union and rugby league 4.3 Intra-observer level ofagreement (70) for the frequency ofselected 81 variables in rugby union and rugby league 4.4 Intra-observer level of agreement (7o) for player identification in rugby 82 union and rugby league 4.5 Number of game quarters to reach stable means to within +1% (*r5o/o, 85 {"k +10%) of the overall mean for time variables in rugby union 4.6 Number of game quarters to reach stable means to within +lo/o (*+5yo, 8ó x* +10%) of the overall mean for time variables in rugby league 4.7 Number of game quarters to reach stable means ø within +1% (*+syq 86 ** +10%) of the overall mean for offence variables in rugby union 4.8 Number of game quarters to re¿ch stable means to within +l% (*+5yo, 87 ** +l}Yo) of the overall mean for offence variables in rugby league 4.9 Number of game quart€rs to reach stable means to within +1olo (*+5o/o, 88 ** +10%) of the overall mean for defence variables in rugby union 4.10 Number of game quarters to reaoh stable means to within *lo/o (**5o/o, E9 'Ì* +10%) ofthe overall mean for defence variables in rugby league 4,ll Number of game quarters to reach süable means to within +1% (*+5yo, 90 ** +l}yo) of the overall mean for game action variables in rugby union 4.12 Number of game quarters to reach stable means to within +1% (*+5yo, 90 ** +lOVo) of the overall mean for game action variables in rugby league 4.13 Number of games for offence and defence variables to stabilise to 9l withn+5%o (*+10%o) of the overall mean for the hooker in rugby union games by Period 4.t4 Number of games for offence and defence variables to stabilise to 92 within +5% (*+10%) of the overall mean for the no. 8 in rugby union games þ Period 4.15 Number of games for offence and defence variables to stabilise to 92 within +5% (*+10%) of the overall mean for the st¿nd offin rugby union games by Period 4.L6 Number of games for offence and defence variables to stabilise to 93 within +5% (*+107o) of the overall mean for the hooker in rugby league games by Period 4.17 Number of games for offence and defence variables to stabilise to 93 within +5% (*+10%) of the overall mean for the loose forward in rugby league games by Period 4.1E Number of games for offence and defence variables to st¿bilise to 94 within +5% (*t10%Ð of the overall mean for the stand offin rugby league games by Period 4.19 Summary of problematic intra-observer reliability analyses and the 101 effect of subsequent amendments to systems Chapter 5 Game profiles 103 5.1 Code comparison for time variables by Era and Period 106 5.2 Percentage change (%L) n mean time variables between Periods by 108 Code 5.3 Code comparison for ofÊence and defence variables by Era and Period 109 5.4 Pøcentage change (%Â) in the frequency of offence and defence 111 variables by Period by Code 5.5 Offence and defence variable frequenoies per unit possession time by 112 Era and Period by Code 5.6 Code comparison for game action variable frequencies by Era and tt4 Period 5.7 Percentage change (%L) in game action variables by Period by Code tt6 5.8 Game action frequency per unit possession time (frequency/min ball in tt1 play, meøn time (secs) between actions) by Era and Period by Code 5.9 Mean +SD tackle type perc€ntage per game by Era and Period by Code t6 ll 5.10 Summary of game variables, factors influencing change in 196 performance profiles and the predominant direction of any code convergence Chapter 6 Performance indicators 2M 6.1 Time performance indicators (s) by Game Result by Period for rugby 209 union 6,2 Time performance indicators (s) by Game Quarter Outcome by Period 2to for rugby union 6.3 Time performance indicators (s) by Game Result by Period for rugby 2tt league 6.4 Time performance indicators (s) by Game Quarter Outcome by Period 212 for rugby league 6.5 Offence and defence performance indictors (mean, median (range)), 2t3 Game Result by Period for rugby uruon 6.6 Ofrence and defence performance indicators (mear¡ mediar, (range)) 216 Game Quarter Outcome by Period for rugby union 6.7 Offence and defence performance indictors (mearl median (range)), 218 Game Result by Pøiod for rugby league 6.8 Offenoe and defence performance indicators (mear¡ median, (range)), 221 Game Quarter Outcome byPeriod for rugby league 6.9 Summary of performance indicators (by Game Resuh (GR) and Game 255 Quarter Outcome (GQO)) by Code by Period rlt LIST OF FIGURES Page Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Key externaf events and independent variables in rugby union and 6 rugby league 1988-2002. Chapter 2 Review of litemture 10 2.1 Example of raw sequential data for the analysis of netball. 18 2.2 Schema for developing a performanoe profile. 30 Chapter 3 Methods 49 3.1 Example of initial notation system for collecting time dat¿ in both 51 codes of rugby football. 3,2 Short hand symbols for offence actions in both codes ofrugby. 51 3.3 Example of initial notation system for the collection of offence 53 variables in rugby union. 3.4 Short hand symbols for defence actions in both codes ofrugby. 53 3.5 Initial notation system for the collection of defence daø in rugby 54 umon. 3.6 Example of a team sheet with secondary identification characteristics 56 of players. 3.7 Example ofthe final notation system for time variables (s) in both 62 rugby Codes. 3.8 Final notation system for the collection ofoffence and defence deta in 63 both rugby union 3.9 Decision model for statistical procedures on notational analysis data. 74 Chapter 4 Reliability and Normative profiles 75 4.t Intra-observer level of agreement - distribution of time differences for 78 'play the ball' time in rugby league. 4.2 Intra-observer level of agreement - distribution of time differences for 78 ruck time in rugby union. 4.3 Intra-observer level of agreement - distribution of time differences for 79 'play the ball' time in rugby league - test 2. 4.4 Inta-observer level of agreement - distribution of time differences for 80 ruck time in rugby unio n - tæt 2. 4.5 Data input discrepancies for ruok frequency analysts. 83 lv 4.6 Data input discrepanoies for maul frequency analysis. 84 4.7 Normative profile for rugby union ball in play time 1988-92. 85 4.8 Normative profile for rugby league total ball carries 1988-92. 87 4.9 Nornutive profile for rugby union total ball canies 1988-92. 89 4.10 Normative profile for rugby league single tackles 2000'02. 89 Chapter 5 Game profiles 111 5.1 Median (Inter-quartile range) total ball in play time per game by Period 119 by Code. 5.2 Mean +SD ruck time per game by Period by Code. 120 5.3 Mean +SD total ruck time per game by Period by Code.