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Nitrogen Flow Model As a Tool for Evaluation of Environmental Performance of Agriculture and Effects on Water Environment

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Nitrogen Flow Model As a Tool for Evaluation of Environmental Performance of Agriculture and Effects on Water Environment Journal of Developments in Sustainable Agriculture 8: 1-12 ( 2013) Nitrogen Flow Model as a Tool for Evaluation of Environmental Performance of Agriculture and Effects on Water Environment Junko Shindo* Graduate School of Medicine and Engineering, University of Yamanashi, Takeda 4-4-37, Kofu, Yamanashi 400-8510, Japan Based on the changes in food demand and production in East Asian counties, the temporal trends from 1980 to 2007 and spatial variation of nitrogen outflow via three channels (nitrogen balance (NB) in agricultural areas, human waste and atmospheric deposition) were estimated with a simple nitrogen flow model. In many countries, food con- sumption has rapidly increased due to population growth and increase in per capita food demand, especially demand for animal protein. In contrast, per capita food demand in India was almost stable despite economic growth. Re- flecting these food demands, consumption of inorganic nitrogen fertilizer and resulting nitrogen balance (NB) per unit agricultural land have increased drastically in many countries. In some countries such as Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, NB was very low or negative even in 2007 suggesting that soil fertility may become exhausted. NB varies significantly within countries and it was extremely high in cities and provinces in China facing the East China Sea and the western Plain of Hindustan in India. Total nitrogen outflow from river basins, which is the sum of the outflows from the three channels in each 0.5° ×0.5°grid cell in the basins, also showed large variability. The Yangtze River basin accounted for the largest share of the total nitrogen outflow, about 20% of the total load of the study area. Comparing the average nitrogen outflow per unit land area in 2007, the Huai River basin had the largest value by a wide margin and may be severely polluted with nitrogen. Key words: Nitrogen flow model, nitrogen balance, dietary transition, water pollution, East Asia ─────────────────────── was 8.9 t ha−1 in the Netherlands (FAO, 2012a). Ac- 1. Introduction cording to Smil (2001), the total amount of inorganic The industrial synthesis of ammonia by Haber and nitrogen fertilizer used in 1900 was estimated to be Bosch at the beginning of the twentieth century has about 340,000 t N, which was supplied from Chilean been said to be the most fundamentally important nitrates and recovery of ammonia from coke ovens. technical invention of that century. The world popu- Consumption increased to 11.0 million t N in 1961 and lation of 1.6 billion in 1900 could not have expanded to to 105.9 million t N in 2010 (FAO, 2012b). the current population without this invention (Smil, By the end of the 1980s, it was recognized, however, 2001). Application of inorganic nitrogen fertilizer that water quality had deteriorated severely over wide coupled with breeding of high-yield crop varieties has areas and that agriculture was a major contributor of enabled us to enhance crop yield markedly. Global the pollution (EEA, 2005; OECD, 2001). In Europe, average of wheat yield, for example, which was about various measures have been taken to reduce nitrogen 0.8 t ha−1 at the end of the nineteenth century (Smil, pollution due to agriculture including designation of 2001), increased to 1.1 t ha−1 by 1961 and to 2.8 t vulnerable zones, establishment of codes of good agri- ha−1 by 2007. The highest yield in the world in 2010 cultural practice for fertilizer application and manure Received: September 11, 2012, Accepted: December 22, 2012 * Corresponding Author: Graduate School of Medicine and Engineering, University of Yamanashi, Takeda 4-4-37, Kofu, Yamanashi 400-8510, Japan. Tel: ＋81-55-220-8833, Fax: ＋81-55-220-8833, E-mail: [email protected] 2 J. Dev. Sus. Agr. 8 (1) management based on the nitrate directive imple- etal protein in 2007 was only 1.1 times the 1961 level mented in 1991 by the European Economic Commu- and has been decreasing recently. Changes in food nity (European Commission, 2002). The Organization consumption in Japan were similar at one time: per for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) capita food consumption increased until the mid- also developed an indicator ‘Nitrogen balance’ to 1980s and per capita animal food consumption until evaluate the environmental performance of agriculture the mid-1990s. Since then, however, consumption has of each member country (OECD, 2001). For the remained almost stable (Shindo et al., 2009). Dietary 2002-2004 period, South Korea and Japan had the transition to less vegetal staple food and more animal highest and the fourth-largest NB, respectively, per food along with increased total food consumption took hectare of agricultural land including pasture among place before the 1990s in Japan, whereas it has been the 30 OECD member countries (OECD, 2008). progressing since 1980s in China. Recent changes in In Asian countries other than Japan and South China’s food consumption seem to indicate, however, Korea, nitrogen status has also been drastically chang- that the dietary transition in China is coming to an end ing: increase of inorganic nitrogen fertilizer use has because the per capita total protein intake has shown been more rapid there than in other regions of the a slightly decreasing trend and per capita meat pro- world for the past several decades and more than 60% tein has been almost stable since 2000. In many other of global nitrogen fertilizer use is in Asia. This is due East Asian countries, increased meat consumption is to rapid economic growth and growing population that marked especially since 1980s (Table 1). Per capita have demanded more food. Therefore, concerns have meat consumption in Vietnam and Cambodia in 2007 been raised regarding the current situation and future was 4.4 times those in 1980; in South Korea, 4.2 times; trends for nitrogen flow and environmental effects and in Myanmar, 3.8 times. However, the absolute (Galloway, 2000; Zheng et al., 2002; Yamaji et al., values for meat consumption differed greatly from 2004; Chen et al., 2010). country to country. This study evaluates nitrogen flow in East Asia for In contrast for India, although total food consump- 13countries ranging from Japan to India (east to west). tion in 1980 had increased to 2.5 times the 1961 level Yearly changes in nitrogen balance were estimated to of 1.5 million t N to 4.0 million t N (Fig. 1b), this in- evaluate the environmental performance in agriculture crease was mainly due to population growth. Per of individual countries with a simple nitrogen flow capita total protein consumption has remained low model. The model also estimated nitrogen outflow despite recent economic growth (Table 1). Per capita from the grid cells within large river basins and ni- animal protein intake, dominated by milk, was still low trogen concentration in river water caused by nitrogen (10 g day−1) in 2007 although it has been gradually in- outflow via nitrogen balance in agricultural land, creasing. Per capita meat consumption has remained human waste and atmospheric deposition to evaluate quite low (1.2 g day−1 in 2007). Mahendra et al. (2004) potential environmental effects from nitrogen assoc- reported that per capita calorie and protein con- iated with food production and consumption. sumption decreased during the economic reform period from 1990 to 2000 in India based on consumption data 2. Food consumption and dietary from the National Sample Survey Organization in transition in East Asia India. Bangladesh and Indonesia also show low rates Food consumption has dramatically increased in of increase for animal protein consumption. many East Asian countries according to statistics 3. Nitrogen flow model (FAO, 2012c). In the case of China, food consump- tion has increased more rapidly than population growth The food consumption rate and its yearly change (Fig. 1a) and per capita protein intake has become 1.7 vary from country to country and hence the environ- times the 47 g capita−1 day−1 in 1961 at 80 g capita−1 mental effect due to agricultural nitrogen should differ day−1 in 2007 as shown in Table 1. As shown in Fig. spatially and temporally. In order to evaluate the po- 1a, the increase in meat consumption is marked since tential nitrogen effects associated with agriculture and 1980s: per capita intake of meat protein was 1.2 g food consumption based on these temporal trends for day−1 in 1961, 4.8 g day−1 in 1980 and 17.2 day−1 in food demand along with food production, trade, 2007. In contrast, the per capita consumption of veg- fertilizer use, etc. by using the statistical data for each Shindo: Nitrogen Flow Model for Evaluating Environmental Performance of Agriculture 3 Fig. 1. Annual human food consumption in nitrogen equivalent and population calculated based on the Food Balance Sheet data derived from FAO statistics (FAO, 2012c) and the change in population in (a) China and (b) India from 1961 to 2007. country, a simple nitrogen flow model was created timated by using equations based on existing knowl- (Shindo et al., 2003, 2006, 2009). Such a model can edge and assumptions. The methods for estimating be used to evaluate future water quality trends or these flows were described in detail in our previous effects of measures taken to reduce nitrogen outflow paper (Shindo et al. 2009). Some portion of nitrogen from agricultural land based on assumed scenarios. was assumed to accumulate as soil organic matter in The scheme of the model is shown in Fig. 2. We the agricultural soil and the remaining nitrogen is assumed that nitrogen input as inorganic nitrogen exported to the sea through the groundwater layer and fertilizer (Nfert), biological fixation (Nfix), food import, river systems.
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