44 44 44 Drought characteristics and management in Central Asia and Turkey Drought characteristics Drought is a normal phenomenon of Central Asia and Turkey's climates. It results in impacts which can be drastic for societies and management in and national economies. The prospects are high that climate change will gradually make future drought episodes more frequent, more intense, of longer duration and having larger Central Asia and Turkey spatial extents. However, the much needed change to build Drought characteristics and management in Central Asia Turkey Drought greater societal resilience to drought - as the most appropriate way to address these impacts - through the adoption of proactive drought management policies, is still in infancy in the region. This report reviews drought and the way it is managed in Central Asia and Turkey. We hope that it will trigger the much needed shift in the way drought is perceived and managed, with the uptake of proactive drought management approach. FAO and partners have provided capacity development on this approach for the region. They have also made available appropriate guidelines describing the approach and explaining the process for its adoption; and they further remain disposed to support countries in developing and implementing such plans. ISBN 978-92-5-109604-8 ISSN 1020-1203 9 789251 096048 I6738EN/1/01.17 43 Water accounting and auditing: A sourcebook (E) 44 Drought characteristics and management in Central Asia and Turkey (E) Cover photograph: © H. Null FAO WATER Drought characteristics REPORTS and management in 44 Central Asia and Turkey Land and Water Division, FAO, Rome and FAO Sub-regional Office for Central Asia, Ankara, Turkey FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Rome, 2017 The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. 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FAO information products are available on the FAO website (www.fao.org/publications) and can be purchased through [email protected]. iii Contents Foreword vii Preface ix Acknowledgements x Executive summary xi List of abbreviations xvii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Types of drought 2 1.2 Drought and climate change 3 1.3 Drought risk management 3 1.4 Structure of report 4 2 The region 6 2.1 Kazakhstan 6 2.2 Kyrgyzstan 6 2.3 Tajikistan 6 2.4 Turkmenistan 6 2.5 Uzbekistan 7 2.6 Turkey 8 3 Drought characteristics 9 3.1 Overview 9 3.2 Rainfall trends 10 3.3 Drought characteristics 11 3.3.1 Kazakhstan 11 3.3.2 Kyrgyzstan 13 3.3.3 Tajikistan 13 3.3.4 Turkmenistan 14 3.3.5 Uzbekistan 14 3.3.6 Turkey 15 3.4 Climate change 16 iv 4 Drought vulnerability 18 4.1 Overview 18 4.1.1 Kazakhstan 20 4.1.2 Kyrgyzstan 21 4.1.3 Tajikistan 22 4.1.4 Turkmenistan 24 4.1.5 Uzbekistan 25 4.1.6 Turkey 26 5 Drought impacts 28 5.1 Overview 28 5.2 Drought impacts and institutions 28 5.3 Mitigating drought impacts 29 5.4 Information and coordination 30 5.4.1 Making drought visible to policy-makers 31 5.5 Country details 31 5.5.1 Kazakhstan 32 5.5.2 Kyrgyzstan 33 5.5.3 Tajikistan 35 5.5.4 Turkmenistan 35 5.5.5 Uzbekistan 36 5.5.6 Turkey 37 6 Drought policies and institutions 39 6.1 Overview 39 6.2 Typology of macro policy water management choices 39 6.2.1 Sustainability as a policy factor 39 6.2.2 Tools for policy and behavioural change 40 6.2.3 Trade options to rationalise spatial water endowments 41 6.2.4 Supporting services 41 6.2.5 Overview of country policies relevant to DRM 41 6.3 Country details 41 6.3.1 Kazakhstan 41 6.3.2 Kyrgyzstan 42 v 6.3.3 Tajikistan 43 6.3.4 Turkmenistan 45 6.3.5 Uzbekistan 47 6.3.6 Turkey 49 7 Drought practices 52 7.1 Overview 52 7.1.1 Institutionalising good practices 52 7.1.2 Linking DRM practices, planning, and policy 53 7.2 Country details 53 7.2.1 Kazakhstan 53 7.2.2 Kyrgyzstan 55 7.2.3 Tajikistan 57 7.2.4 Turkmenistan 60 7.2.5 Uzbekistan 63 7.2.6 Turkey 65 8 Challenges and ways forward 72 8.1 Overview 72 8.1.1 Kazakhstan 72 8.1.2 Kyrgyzstan 73 8.1.3 Tajikistan 74 8.1.4 Turkmenistan 74 8.1.5 Uzbekistan 75 8.1.6 Turkey 75 9 Recommendations 78 9.1 Kazakhstan 78 9.2 Kyrgyzstan 79 9.3 Tajikistan 79 9.4 Turkmenistan 80 9.5 Uzbekistan 80 9.6 Turkey 81 10 References 82 vii Foreword Drought is a normal phenomenon of all climates, with varying characteristics between regions. It materializes in a reduction of precipitation from the long-term average, that extends over a given space scale for a specific period of time and results in impacts. Over the past decades, drought episodes have become more widespread and prolonged in many parts of the world, with increased socio-economic and environmental impacts. More than 80 percent of the damages and losses caused by droughts are to the agriculture sector, affecting livestock and crop production and having severe consequences for food supplies and livelihoods, especially for smallholders and the poorest members of rural societies. Drought is a slow-onset disaster – consecutive seasons of crop failure or livestock losses caused by extended dry spells and poor rains erode coping capacities and undermine livelihoods. However, the traditional response to droughts is short-term provision of humanitarian assistance in the form of food, livestock feed, cash, health and nutrition support, among others. While humanitarian assistance is critical to ensure lives are saved in the immediate term, a paradigm shift is needed to tackle the root causes of vulnerabilities and reduce disaster risks, focusing on building the resilience of their livelihoods to ensure they can cope with extreme climate events, such as droughts in the long term. With this concern in mind, the High-level Meeting on National Drought Management Policy (HMNDP), convened by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Secretariat of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), took place in Geneva, in March 2013, gathering over 430 participants from more than 90 countries, including ministers and senior officials, dignitaries, heads of a number of organizations and agencies, scientists and country delegates. The purpose of the meeting was to initiate a dialogue on the need for such a fundamental shift in the way droughts are perceived and managed and to encourage governments to develop and implement national drought management policies consistent with their development objectives. The Meeting issued a declaration that, among other provisions, urged WMO, FAO and UNCCD Secretariat as well as other concerned parties, to assist governments, especially the developing countries, in the development of National Drought Management Policies and their implementation. The concern about drought impacts is fully embedded into FAO’s Strategic Framework which drives the organization’s activities. Increasing societal resilience to disasters, especially drought which drastically affects rural livelihoods, is one of the five Strategic Objectives constituting FAO priorities, Within the framework of its Strategic Objective to increase the resilience of livelihoods from disasters, FAO joined hands with the Robert B. Daugherty Water for Food Institute of the University of Lincoln-Nebraska, for launching a study on drought characterization and management in drought prone regions of the world. Getting a close picture of both drought characteristics and the way it is managed in different regions is essential for steering the shift from emergency response to more pro-active policy and long-term planning.and for assessing gaps and elaborating the right support to countries to achieve viii this shift. This reflects the UN’s New Way of Working which enables humanitarian and development actors to support affected people through collective outcomes which reduce risk, need and vulnerability, and contribute to sustainable development. The other goal of the studies is to provide background information, first for designing drought risk management planning guidelines that are tailored for the specific characteristic and needs for each region, and second for the preparation of national and regional projects aimed at implanting pro-active drought management plans.